ATP Masters 1000: Miami

Here is a question:

1) Will Murray come out all guns blazing and try to win the first set, or

2) Will he mainly push the first set "letting" Nole win it with ease hoping he will relax, lose the second set and then Murray gets engaged in the all-out physical slug in the 3rd?

I just saw on v2 Murdoch thinks Nole is not on his 2011 level.
Man, you cannot be serious. He is so much better now in every aspect of his game.

Nole 2015 would double-bagel his 2011 self!

noleisthebest wrote:
Nole 2015 would double-bagel his 2011 self!

Look, instead of believing everything Tenez tells you, and then taking it to emphatic and extreme levels, why not challenge it ?
Djokovic has improved some aspects of his game, but his confidence in his game 2011 was higher and thus he could maintain an incredible level for a longer period of time- so he would not be beating his 2011 self.

Kimmy,
smart people learn from those who know more, fools just...continue to be fools - wise in their own eyes.

The problem is, you don't understand how the ball is struck.
The mechanics are pretty simple.

Until you work it out, it will be hard for you to engage in any meaningful debate.

I assume you are not interested as all you care about is getting the winning fix Nadal gives you.

As soon as you dissociate emotionally from him on that personal level and stop defending him like your/his life depend on it you'll be able to relax and enjoy tennis and other players more.

But I understand that the former gives you more pleasure, which it's fine.

It's just that's it's funny when you try and dress it up in see-through Nadal lingerie.

noleisthebest wrote:Kimmy,
smart people learn from those who know more, fools just...continue to be fools - wise in their own eyes.

There are smart people, there are fools, and then there are people who believe Djokovic now would double bagel Djokovic 2011.

noleisthebest wrote:The problem is, you don't understand how the ball is struck.
The mechanics are pretty simple.

Not only do I understand the mechanics, I understand it to a significantly higher level than you or people who agree with you on everything do.
It's probably why I don't come to bonkers conclusions about Djokovic of 2011 getting double bagelled, or Thiem now beating Nadal 2006 in French Open

Kim Jong-Un wrote:
Not only do I understand the mechanics, I understand it to a significantly higher level than you or people who agree with you on everything do.
It's probably why I don't come to bonkers conclusions about Djokovic of 2011 getting double bagelled, or Thiem now beating Nadal 2006 in French Open

Oh Kimmy
The thing is, you either understand it or you don't... there are no " levels"... let alone "significantly higher" ones..it's that simple.

In five years' time this will all be common knowledge, just like it's common knowledge now that tennis is physical and that 25 seconds rule must be enforced by umpires.

5 years ago people were laughing at Tenez for pointing it out, and now everyone can see it.
Even the commentators

Happy Easter everyone!

noleisthebest wrote:I just saw on v2 Murdoch thinks Nole is not on his 2011 level.
Man, you cannot be serious. He is so much better now in every aspect of his game.

Nole 2015 would double-bagel his 2011 self!

I don't think Djokovic has improved far too much in 4 years. His serving sure has, especially down the T. But as I see, that's about it. And what will he improve on? He basically plays the same way. You can bring out abstract pointers like his slicing has improved, his net play has  etc... its just a matter of saying it.

What he has lost? His supreme confidence going into a match. He never had it after 2011. It showed very clearly in his losses at RG the next 3 years, especially in 2014. If he had reached RG 2011 final, no question he would have won it. But he didn't feel anything close to that in the next 3 years.

You think Djokovic-2015 would double bagel 2011 version? If that be true then he must be double-bageling every player outside of top-20. I have assumed Djokovic-2011 must be better than every player in 2015 outside of top-20, isn't it? But that is not happening.

Players do improve on some of their skills with time-age. But it also depends on what kind of game they play.

Error prone match so far. Murray being slightly more aggressive than Djoko. Djoko making UEs while attacking.

It's got to be said that all 3 breaks so far happened while serving against the sun....as expected. It seems to affect the players badly.

1st set djoko and surelythat is game over.

I can't believe how much Murray is muscling the ball.

And he had the cheek to tweet: "Bye bye Wayne, good riddance"...

Murray not given time violation warnings...

Yanks have no idea how to monitor crowd entrance between games...

Do they really have to carry around boxes of food and eat DURING the match in this hot weather

Come on Nole, break the sushi-pushy muscle-Murray now and get us all out of this misery

Djokovic and Murray's average time between points at 25 second and 27 second.

Pretty sure even Nadal is quicker than that normally ?

Nah.

I really don't buy this idea that everyone is miles better. Berdych? Ferrer? 

Djokovic still has tragic volleys. Murrays 2nd serve looks worse than ever.

Murray deffo isn't serving as well post surgery.

On the stats his serve % is down from pre 2014, as well as down on aces, % won etc.

luvsports! wrote:Nah.

The last time they showed Nadal's time between points stat, it was definitely less than 25 seconds on average.
Obviously he was still breaking the time rule a lot, but Murray and Djokovic's averages itself were 25+ which is huge.

bogbrush wrote:I really don't buy this idea that everyone is miles better. Berdych? Ferrer? 

Djokovic still has tragic volleys. Murrays 2nd serve looks worse than ever.

Berdych and Ferrer are pretty much where they were a few years ago, maybe Ferrer marginally less consistent in the past year and a half- but certainly not massively improved.

The idea that Djokovic 2015 could double bagel Djokovic 2011 as NITB said is absolute gibberish I'm afraid. Djokovic now beat Ferrer 7-5 7-5, he couldn't even double bagel Monaco... it just a bit silly to suggest Monaco now is better than Djokovic in 2011.

Kim Jong-Un wrote:Djokovic and Murray's average time between points at 25 second and 27 second.

Pretty sure even Nadal is quicker than that normally ?

Last time they showed it v Verdy it was 28s.

bogbrush wrote:I really don't buy this idea that everyone is miles better. Berdych? Ferrer? 

Djokovic still has tragic volleys. Murrays 2nd serve looks worse than ever.

Considering that the millions of youngsters and other 100s ATP players do nothing to raise the bar and push the guy at the top down is even less credible.

It's not Murray's serve or Djoko's volley which win them matches....it's their over-all fitness....as Murray experienced again today.

Tenez wrote:

Kim Jong-Un wrote:Djokovic and Murray's average time between points at 25 second and 27 second.

Pretty sure even Nadal is quicker than that normally ?

Last time they showed it v Verdy it was 28s.

Most matches it is certainly not 28 seconds, and I'm pretty sure they also showed it vs Verdy and it was just under 25, but I can't remember how much of a way through the match it was.

Tenez wrote:

bogbrush wrote:I really don't buy this idea that everyone is miles better. Berdych? Ferrer? 

Djokovic still has tragic volleys. Murrays 2nd serve looks worse than ever.

Considering that the millions of youngsters and other 100s ATP players do nothing to raise the bar and push the guy at the top down is even less credible.

It's not Murray's serve or Djoko's volley which win them matches....it's their over-all fitness....as Murray experienced again  today.

Do you agree with NITB that Djokovic now would double bagel Djokovic 2011 ?
If not, how close do you feel the match would be ?

Kim Jong-Un wrote:

Tenez wrote:

bogbrush wrote:I really don't buy this idea that everyone is miles better. Berdych? Ferrer? 

Djokovic still has tragic volleys. Murrays 2nd serve looks worse than ever.

Considering that the millions of youngsters and other 100s ATP players do nothing to raise the bar and push the guy at the top down is even less credible.

It's not Murray's serve or Djoko's volley which win them matches....it's their over-all fitness....as Murray experienced again  today.

Do you agree with NITB that Djokovic now would double bagel Djokovic 2011 ?
If not, how close do you feel the match would be ?

It would not be close. Djoko is a much improved player. he is much faster on his legs, serves much better, anticipates better, more dexterous with what he does with the ball ...so much that it gives you the feeling that everybody else has declined since.

When you have 2 players with the same game but one is better than the other then the game is likely to be one sided.

What I find amusing is that most of you can see that Federer and Ferrer have lost a step but can't see that Djoko has effectively improved his footwork considerably since.

Djoko says he has improved considerably since 2011...I trust him over you.....but I, and the rest of the tour it seems, can see it too.

Well considering Djokovic Ferrer finished 7-5 7-5, do you think then that Ferrer would beat Djokovic 2011 comfortably ?

Kim Jong-Un wrote:Well considering Djokovic Ferrer finished 7-5 7-5, do you think then that Ferrer would beat Djokovic 2011 comfortably ?

You cannot draw conclusion on a single match. Djoko had a very easy 2 setter win v Murray 2 weeks ago and almost lost in 2 sets today. What does that tell us?

Because you lack arguments and analog vision, you throw some comparative scores hoping to draw conclusions.

However Djoko, the rest of the tour and myself see very clearly that he has improved. Despite being very tired he has won another tournament today, playing at 80%.

Watch a clip of Murray v Djoko in AO 2011 and compare it with today or AO15....and see how both have progressed.

Tenez wrote:

Kim Jong-Un wrote:Well considering Djokovic Ferrer finished 7-5 7-5, do you think then that Ferrer would beat Djokovic 2011 comfortably ?

You cannot draw conclusion on a single match. Djoko had a very easy 2 setter win v Murray 2 weeks ago and almost lost in 2 sets today. What does that tell us?

Yep fair enough, there can be fluctuations in form from match to match.
But still, how would you expect today's Ferrer competes against a Djokovic 2011 ?

Watch a clip of Murray v Djoko in AO 2011 and compare it with today or AO15....and see how both have progressed.

I just watched a highlights clip, I though Djokovic from AO 2011 was better, playing more aggressively too.

Kim Jong-Un wrote:I just watched a highlights clip, I though Djokovic from AO 2011 was better, playing more aggressively too.

That's where I think you have an agenda cause clearly the level and intensity of the game is better nowadays....before Murray collapses physically.

And being more aggressive does not mean being better nowadays....look at Murray, Nadal and Djoko....they are in finals cause they retrieve and it's almost always the more aggressive who loses. So at least one of your judgement might be correct.

This is the clip I watched, I'm sorry- Djokovic played well today but not at the incredible level he was playing in that Australian Open final. Even in the semi his level to knock out Federer was unbelievable.

So...since yuo cannot see it from a naked eye...just clock a few rallies...15+ shots and tell me which match plays faster.

On a side note....I remember Murray being alreay pretty muscly in 2011...but compared now he looks so frail.

Edit: OK, I will time a few rallies there and compare.

Look Tenez, we clearly disagree hugely on most things when it comes to tennis. I think most players start to decline overall when they reach 30 (although they may still improve a few aspects), but you seem to believe players keep getting better. I believe the competition and level on the tour fluctuates (apart from technology which gets better with each decade), you seem to believe the tour keep improving at a very fast rate year on year.

Neither of us can prove or disprove our case, but let's have a look at our track record on long term predictions, shall we ?
You said (numerous times across 2012 and early 2013) that by the autumn of 2013 there'd be a new young gun at the top of the game. I said none of the young guns had been impressive enough to break through so soon at the time. Seems like I was right.
After Dimitrov beat Djokovic in Madrid 2013, you said he'd be number 1 soon; I said no- he's now not even top 10. You said last year Raonic is on the verge of big things, I said he's too dependent on his serve and not good enough at the highest level, and he's still only reached one slam semi.
You've predicted Nadal to be on a slippery slope basically every year (I remember your posts on 606 and 606v2...), instead he stayed at the top of the game for a decade.

Now in terms of who's overall theory is right, as I said it's impossible for either of us to prove or disprove each other.
But perhaps we can look at our overall long term predictions for some sort of indicator. And I'm sorry Tenez, it seems I'm right so often, and you're wrong... so often. If this was a boxing match the referee would have stopped proceedings.

OK, so how do I do this rally number counting ?

I'll take the first 3 15+ shot rallies I find, and measure the time it takes from the serve to the 15th shot.

Highlights I'll use:
Djokovic Murray 2011 Aus Open: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kAMJ8vsvLUk
Djokovic Murray 2015 Miami:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Noudv3vM5ZQ (Set 1)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ueHdBwolSG0 (Set 1 TB)

Miami 2015 15+ shot rallies:
1/ 0:37-0:55 so 18 seconds
2/ 4:01-4:19 so 18 seconds
3/ 0:00-0:18 so 18 seconds again... (this one is from the TB btw)

Aus Open 2011 15+ shot rallies:
1/ 0:53-1:12 so 19 seconds
2/ 1:44-2:02 so 18 seconds
3/ 3:01-3:19 so 18 seconds again...

OK so this shows that they were all basically the same pace. I've provided the links and exact timings, so you can double check all of these.
There was basically no difference at all, and even if you nit-pick at the fact one of the AO 2011 was 19 seconds, that one had a few slices which took the pace off, if not for that it probably would have been 18 seconds as well.

There just hasn't been such a big chance in the pace of play as you falsely think. Djokovic in early 2011 was playing with huge confidence, and now he's still playing well in early 2015- except a bit edgy with lapses of focus from time to time.

Perhaps players really are getting better all the time.

For instance, Rod Laver is playing better than ever, but Federer has raised his own game even further. It makes Rod look like he has lost a step.


* acknowledgements to my good friend HMMurdoch

raiders_of_the_lost_ark wrote:

noleisthebest wrote:I just saw on v2 Murdoch thinks Nole is not on his 2011 level.
Man, you cannot be serious. He is so much better now in every aspect of his game.

Nole 2015 would double-bagel his 2011 self!

I don't think Djokovic has improved far too much in 4 years. His serving sure has, especially down the T. But as I see, that's about it. And what will he improve on? He basically plays the same way. You can bring out abstract pointers like his slicing has improved, his net play has  etc... its just a matter of saying it.

What he has lost? His supreme confidence going into a match. He never had it after 2011. It showed very clearly in his losses at RG the next 3 years, especially in 2014. If he had reached RG 2011 final, no question he would have won it. But he didn't feel anything close to that in the next 3 years.

You think Djokovic-2015 would double bagel 2011 version? If that be true then he must be double-bageling every player outside of top-20. I have assumed Djokovic-2011 must be better than every player in 2015 outside of top-20, isn't it? But that is not happening.

Players do improve on some of their skills with time-age. But it also depends on what kind of game they play.

The main difference rotla is that players hit the ball harder now. All of them.

That is is the main "improvement".

If you can imagine hitting the ball harder than you normally do for the whole set, you will see how physical tennis has become now compared to two years ago.

Why two years?

That's when I noticed most players have caught up with fitness: Stan, Berdych, Raonic, Ferrer, Dimi, Pospisil...everyone except Gulbis & French players (Paire has tried, but with no success).

You can see the difference clearly when they play.

That is why nobody has been able to dominate 2013 & 2014 in the way it was done in previous years, eg Nole's 2011.

Why is Nole the best and winning the most atm?

Because his game is the most energy efficient. There are other reasons (more shot variety, better timing), but this is the main one and it showed against Murray yesterday.

I'll try to illustrate:

when the two started the match yesterday, Murray had 1.5l of petrol in his tank, Nole 1l.
Murray is physically stronger than Nole. His muscles can produce harder shots over roughly 1.5 sets.

Physically speaking is was Murray's match to win, and he must have thought the same as he started it full guns blazing and kept it for nearly two sets (which is the absolute max he can last with that style of play).
I was surprised he tried it, but he probably thought hot weather was favouring him.

Nole was mainly containing Murray and because he is considerably lighter and hits the ball with less muscle, i.e. spends less energy, his 1l leveled Murray after set one.
When he tank gets emptied, Murray can only push, and that's when Nole is all over him as he can easily outmanouver him from centre baseline.

He knew it, Murray knew it.

That's why Murray gave up the ghost in the third set and got bagelled.
He knew he had no chance.

Did you notice how many bagels we have had recently?

bogbrush wrote:Perhaps players really are getting better all the time.

For instance, Rod Laver is playing better than ever, but Federer has raised his own game even further. It makes Rod look like he has lost a step.


* acknowledgements to my good friend HMMurdoch

They surely are. Hand-eye coordination and feeling for the ball are there, just Rod's footwork looks a bit worse.

Kim Jong-Un wrote:This is the clip I watched, I'm sorry- Djokovic played well today but not at the incredible level he was playing in that Australian Open final. Even in the semi his level to knock out Federer was unbelievable.

Great clip!

You can see tennis there looks slo-motion compared to today's.
The contrast is striking.

noleisthebest wrote:

Kim Jong-Un wrote:This is the clip I watched, I'm sorry- Djokovic played well today but not at the incredible level he was playing in that Australian Open final. Even in the semi his level to knock out Federer was unbelievable.

Great clip!

You can see tennis there looks slo-motion compared to today's.
The contrast is striking.

Oh for the love of God...

Can you perhaps read the thread ?

This is Kim in regards to reading his post on the speed of the game.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SQhQOwtq1Es

paulcz wrote:

bogbrush wrote:Perhaps players really are getting better all the time.

For instance, Rod Laver is playing better than ever, but Federer has raised his own game even further. It makes Rod look like he has lost a step.


* acknowledgements to my good friend HMMurdoch

They surely are. Hand-eye coordination and feeling for the ball are there, just Rod's footwork looks a bit worse.

It only looks that way because Federer has advanced so far. Laver now would clearly double-bagel his late 1960's self.

bogbrush wrote:

paulcz wrote:

bogbrush wrote:Perhaps players really are getting better all the time.

For instance, Rod Laver is playing better than ever, but Federer has raised his own game even further. It makes Rod look like he has lost a step.


* acknowledgements to my good friend HMMurdoch

They surely are. Hand-eye coordination and feeling for the ball are there, just Rod's footwork looks a bit worse.

It only looks that way because Federer has advanced so far. Laver now would clearly double-bagel his late 1960's self.

Absolutely, if they played on a faster court and current Rod took a bit  bigger frame, then no doubt about a double-bagel.
Actually I don't know what the balls and surfaces' speed were in Rod's time, just frames were definitely smaller then.

bogbrush wrote:Perhaps players really are getting better all the time.

For instance, Rod Laver is playing better than ever, but Federer has raised his own game even further. It makes Rod look like he has lost a step.


* acknowledgements to my good friend HMMurdoch

BB...according to you...it's even more comical....Djoko can only dominate cause the musketeers declined...isn't it?

Kim the reason I asked you to check for yourself is that I had already checked and notice that amongst other things Ao 2015 was faster than Ao 2011. So I was simply expecting you to find the same results. Iam not sure where how you got to those numbers but here is what I have.
AO11
14 18 1.285714286
18 25 1.388888889
20 27 1.35

AO 15
20 25 1.25
looking for more results...and will check yours...

Ok...I know how you do it wrong. I am not going to check them all.....but I am simply taking your first rally you picked for AO 2011....(btw, your Miami 15 files are no longer available0

I agree it starts at 0,53s... but you have 17 shots until the ball reaches Djoko for one last time. I am not accounting for Djoko;s last shot as it is a drop shot and therefore messes up the timing of the baseline. Therefore you have 17 shots executed in 23 secs....that is 1.38s on average per rally (that is for the ball to go from Murray to Djoko or vice versa).

If you take AO 2015.....the rally I showed above (but I will get you more soon), is 20 shots for 25sec...that is 1.25sec per rally. so close to 12 % faster.

...more to come...

And after double checking your 3 AO11 rallies...they are all recorded wrongly.

The socond is clearly a joke as you stop counting before the ball crosses teh net while you shoudl account for the ball to reach the baseline. And for the 3rd one you don't count till the end.

Check with teh AO 15 and you will see teh rallies are over 10% quicker on average.

But pace is only one aspect where those 2 players have improved.

http://www.atpworldtour.com/News/Tennis/2015/4/14/Miami-Final-Brain-Game-Djokovic-Murray.aspx

looks like the "analyst specialist" is finally working out how the roadrunners have ruled the tennis world since 2007!

Tenez wrote:http://www.atpworldtour.com/News/Tennis/2015/4/14/Miami-Final-Brain-Game-Djokovic-Murray.aspx

looks like the "analyst specialist" is finally working out how the roadrunners have ruled the tennis world since 2007!

It's the blind leading the blind.

..."Murray would hit a return approach three more times for the match, winning all three, leaving you wondering how different the match might have been if Murray had been fully committed to the Federer-esque tactic, running it 10-15 times for the match. There is no better way to shorten a return point, preserve leg stamina, and add pressure to an aggressive baseliner than regularly mixing in coming forward off a second-serve return"...