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» Time to go?
Fri Nov 23, 2018 3:20 pm by bogbrush

» WTF - London 2018 (and maybe a little bit of 'nextgen')
Mon Nov 19, 2018 3:07 pm by AceofDeath

» Paris Masters 2018
Mon Nov 05, 2018 12:00 am by Daniel

» Why has American and Australian Tennis Declined?
Wed Oct 31, 2018 2:30 pm by bogbrush

» Basel and Vienna 2018
Mon Oct 29, 2018 3:24 pm by Jahu

» Wimbleodn adopts final set TBs
Sat Oct 27, 2018 2:43 pm by Emancipator

» ATP 1000 Shanghai Masters.
Wed Oct 24, 2018 10:42 pm by Tenez

» Guerrilla, not gorilla, warfare: Fired tennis analyst who nearly died to have his day in court
Wed Oct 17, 2018 8:55 am by bogbrush

» How good is Stefanos Tsitsipas?
Wed Oct 10, 2018 11:11 am by Tenez

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Time to go?

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Time to go?

Post by bogbrush on Sun Nov 18, 2018 7:48 am

I’ve watched Federer play in adversity over many years; with a bad back, ill with mono, with a knee injury, with a smaller racquet, in conditions dreadful to an attacking game or stuck with the wrong tactics against Nadal. All these times it’s been possible to argue that better times could be around the corner.

But yesterday I watched him just be not as good as a very ordinary rival. His serve lacks bite and the great backhand of 2017 seems to have shrunk away. Zverev would have been dismissed with ease by peak Federer yet it was another exercise in determination staving off the inevitable.

I can’t for the life of me see where #21 comes from, not now with Djokovic fully restored. Unless there’s an injury we don’t know about and which there’s a reasonable chance of clearing up, isn’t this this where a player retires?

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Re: Time to go?

Post by Tenez on Sun Nov 18, 2018 9:06 am

On the other hand he was close to beat Novak a couple of weeks ago like he could have won yesterday. 

However we have seen fragility in the past and to me his winning a couple more slams recently was mainly down to luck not having to play a couple of exhausting players (Djoko and Murray) on his way to finals as well as having key resting days before those slams finals.

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Re: Time to go?

Post by Daniel on Sun Nov 18, 2018 1:44 pm

He's still winning titles and has another good year in him.  But I'd make next year his last if I were him. The balance has now started shifting due to age firmly into the loss side.  #21 could easily happen with the right draw - and Djokovic is not going to win all of them or even make the final of all of them.

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Re: Time to go?

Post by legendkillar on Sun Nov 18, 2018 7:15 pm

Think there needs to be some frank perspective. The fairytale of 2017 and into early 2018 had some rather favourable circumstances about it. Mainly we saw 2017 be the year that the Bluetack and rubber bands holding the bodies of Djokovic and Murray finally break and saw them effectively whimper out of 2017. We also saw Federer become one with the new racquet and shore up that BH. The 100th NextGen were still yet to make inroads and importantly Nadal was still a shade of pale from his pomp days. It was the perfect scenario for Federer and boy he made hay when the sun shone. 

This kind of slump was to be expected tbh. I think we anticipated that Djokovic would get his act together and that Federer physically couldn't avoid niggles that would hamper him more in tournaments. 

If Federer chucked in his hand now, I wouldn't have any qualms. However I would add this. Nadal and Djokovic's invincibility is looking less more formidable and Zverev and Tsitsipas when on song will be more than a handful, so whilst favourable draws seem Federer's hope of a #21 Slam, I think what we have in Zverev and Tsitsipas is nearly tamed power and the legs to challenge Nadal and Djokovic. 

I think Federer has one more round left in him and then call it quits.

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Re: Time to go?

Post by barrystar on Mon Nov 19, 2018 9:18 am

Whilst I agree that a slam win is very unlikely, I think there's enough in the tank to give 2019 a decent go for sure.  He might well drop off quickly and face a disappointment like 2013, but even a poor year won't 'tarnish' anything, and it's all to do with how much he enjoys himself.

There are fair ways of analysing his 2018 and his prospects which suggest that bb's gloom is excessive.  If you take his AO win away from him he's still in the top 8, and his Autumn-Winter H/C season was none too shabby compared to normal mortals, namely 20:6 including a tournament win after Wimbledon, namely a 76% w/l which is still an 'all-time great' level.  His match vs. Djoko in Paris was a high standard. Only Nadal at 5 won more titles than him and several others on 4 over the season, and he made 7 finals.  He is still measured against the impossibly high standards he has set, which if anything were exaggerated by the astonishing and serendipitous 2017. He remains the biggest crowd-puller in the sport, and either the top, or one of the top 3, 'scalps' that up and coming players want to claim.  As LK has said, his main rivals are not as dominant as they were 3-4 years ago.

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Re: Time to go?

Post by Jahu on Mon Nov 19, 2018 12:53 pm

He will play in 2019 same, a warmup event before each GS apart from RG, and maybe 1-2 US Masters due to warm weather.

Also I think Uniqlo's $300M were with a deal that Fed play Olympics in Tokyo, probably with huge adverts from Uniqlo who makes very little sports clothing compared to their normal pants, shirts and other daily/business everyday clothes, and recoup a little of those 300M.

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Re: Time to go?

Post by bogbrush on Mon Nov 19, 2018 12:58 pm

Yeah, forgot that. It's bound to include Tokyo.

Anyway, he did better in his semi than Djokovic did yesterday.

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Re: Time to go?

Post by Jahu on Mon Nov 19, 2018 1:19 pm

If he doesn't fuckup the AO i.e goes to Final/Wins, he will mostly be seed 2 or 3 so with Djoko will be a Final mostly, and we only need a big hitter/runner to knock out Djoko before the Final smiley

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Re: Time to go?

Post by AceofDeath on Mon Nov 19, 2018 3:13 pm

He is quitting next year.. I guarantee you it's his last season

2019 Basel is his last tournament on the tour

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Re: Time to go?

Post by Jahu on Mon Nov 19, 2018 9:16 pm

So that's how L'Equipe's 2013 prediction for the 2018 ATP Top-10 turned out

https://twitter.com/AnnaK_4ever/status/1064216092766277632/photo/1

Fed and Nadal were not even inside top 10 predicted.

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Re: Time to go?

Post by Tenez on Mon Nov 19, 2018 9:35 pm

AceofDeath wrote:He is quitting next year.. I guarantee you it's his last season

2019 Basel is his last tournament on the tour
I also think so. Either Wimby 19 or Nitto Final But I can't see him bother after 2019....unless Uniqlo's $$ forces him to.

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Re: Time to go?

Post by Daniel on Mon Nov 19, 2018 9:40 pm

AceofDeath wrote:He is quitting next year.. I guarantee you it's his last season

2019 Basel is his last tournament on the tour

Not sure it will be Basel - He may see the year out.

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Re: Time to go?

Post by raiders_of_the_lost_ark on Tue Nov 20, 2018 9:07 am

Federer is not concentrating on tennis as much as its required to be a top player. He isn't training much. Some injuries are showing up on the ageing body.

I don't blame him, it's perfectly normal. The level of professionalism required in tennis can cause burnout. How many years can a guy do it? No matter how much he loves playing tennis, at pro level 'playing' is not much fun when not winning for someone who has been winning most of his life.

Winning another slam? With each passing slam, he needs more and more favourable conditions. So not impossible but highly unlikely. Wimbledon is his best chance.

More TMS 1000? Maybe 1 more, but still like slams need some good draws and results in his favour.

ATP 500 : likely to win 2/4 of the Rotterdam/Dubai/Basel/Halle which he normally plays.

ATP250: Will play more of those if reaching 109 titles is an aim for him.

So if he plays all year in 2019, he will collect 3-4 titles. which makes him 102-103 titles.

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Re: Time to go?

Post by Tenez on Tue Nov 20, 2018 9:47 am

The thing is I am not sure what an extra slam would bring to his career, unless it is the FO.

I'd like to see him play more v Nadal and amend that H2H if possible.

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Re: Time to go?

Post by Slippy on Tue Nov 20, 2018 10:03 am

Barring injury, I’d be very surprised if he retires before Tokyo 2020. I’d expect him to call it a day at Basel that year (or the WTF if he makes it). 

Based on performances, retirement talk seems premature anyway. He’s a current slam holder and was in the hunt for the title at Cincy, Paris and WTF in the latter part of the year. He isn’t playing as well as he was a year or so ago but he’s not out of contention yet.

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Re: Time to go?

Post by bogbrush on Tue Nov 20, 2018 10:03 am

I wouldn't mind him never playing Nadal again. The narrative, if you like that sort of thing, is that eventually he worked him out and went on the (equal) longest continuous running streak either of them ever achieved against the other. A nice counter to the h2h rubbish. A 6th would be nice but breaking the streak wouldn't.

Another Slam, as others are saying, requires extraordinary convergence of events. The French is out, forget it, he's played his last on clay and someone like Coric would crunch him. The US appears wedded to being a slow court. That leaves the newly-enlightened Australian and of course Wimbledon. Maybe, if the stars completely aligned, just maybe.

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Re: Time to go?

Post by bogbrush on Tue Nov 20, 2018 10:03 am

Weird double posting going on here.


Last edited by bogbrush on Tue Nov 20, 2018 10:05 am; edited 1 time in total

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Re: Time to go?

Post by Slippy on Tue Nov 20, 2018 10:03 am

Barring injury, I’d be very surprised if he retires before Tokyo 2020. I’d expect him to call it a day at Basel that year (or the WTF if he makes it). 

Based on performances, retirement talk seems premature anyway. He’s a current slam holder and was in the hunt for the title at Cincy, Paris and WTF in the latter part of the year. He isn’t playing as well as he was a year or so ago but he’s not out of contention yet.

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Re: Time to go?

Post by Slippy on Tue Nov 20, 2018 10:04 am

Barring injury, I’d be very surprised if he retires before Tokyo 2020. I’d expect him to call it a day at Basel that year (or the WTF if he makes it). 

Based on performances, retirement talk seems premature anyway. He’s a current slam holder and was in the hunt for the title at Cincy, Paris and WTF in the latter part of the year. He isn’t playing as well as he was a year or so ago but he’s not out of contention yet.

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Re: Time to go?

Post by raiders_of_the_lost_ark on Wed Nov 21, 2018 10:58 am

Slippy wrote:Barring injury, I’d be very surprised if he retires before Tokyo 2020. I’d expect him to call it a day at Basel that year (or the WTF if he makes it). 

Based on performances, retirement talk seems premature anyway. He’s a current slam holder and was in the hunt for the title at Cincy, Paris and WTF in the latter part of the year. He isn’t playing as well as he was a year or so ago but he’s not out of contention yet.

He is finding difficult to beat Medvedev, Coric, Nishikori etc... guys whom he may be meeting in rnd2, rnd3, rnd4. If he struggling in earlier rounds, he almost impossible for him to win if faced by a Nadal/Djokovic/Zverev in SF and then in finals. Unless someone knocks them out and makes its a bit easier.

So you can't call him out of contention yet, sure. 

I would like him to play enough to get 110+ titles which mean 11 more. That would require min 2 years. so 2020 Fed is playing.

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Re: Time to go?

Post by Tenez on Wed Nov 21, 2018 11:06 am

I'd be very surprised if he gets another 11 titles. The slippery slope is now steepening fast at that age. Not so long ago he was still flying on the court. Now he looks slower even when rested.

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Re: Time to go?

Post by Jahu on Wed Nov 21, 2018 12:02 pm

Sure he can, chase another 10 x ATP250 in exotic places he has never played and be done with it, let fans see you play that never dreamed of seeing him Live, new places, quick 4 matches, fun!!

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Re: Time to go?

Post by Daniel on Wed Nov 21, 2018 9:01 pm

yup.  Easy enough with ATP 250s.

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Re: Time to go?

Post by Tenez on Wed Nov 21, 2018 11:38 pm

Toni also thinks Fed won't win another slam.

https://www.bbc.com/sport/tennis/46287522

What I find funny is that he thought only the decline of the top 3 would allow the yougsters to reach the top but he has no changed his mind about it, it seems.

I think Federer is the only player in the history of tennis that has been overtaken by his decline. All the others found their masters before declining.

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Re: Time to go?

Post by Daniel on Thu Nov 22, 2018 3:22 am

Uncle Moron isn't any authority.

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Re: Time to go?

Post by bogbrush on Thu Nov 22, 2018 9:28 am

Daniel wrote:yup.  Easy enough with ATP 250s.
And to be fair Connors tally is packed with garbage.

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Re: Time to go?

Post by Daniel on Thu Nov 22, 2018 5:47 pm

Yeah - I mean for all the clout Connors' record gets - the fact is Federer is approaching 100 with 20 slams. Connors isn't exactly close.

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Re: Time to go?

Post by barrystar on Thu Nov 22, 2018 7:07 pm

I think that the overall tournament record isn't such a big one in terms of a measure of greatness.

According to Wiki/ATP (and not completely sure of translating Connors's & Lendl's results to today's regime):

Connors  at 109 overall had  8 slams, 3 y/e championships, 17 Masters equivalents,  49 500 equivalents, and 32 250 equivalents.
Federer   at  99 has            20 slams, 6 y/e,                       27 Masters,                   21 500's,                       25 250's
Lendl      at   94 had             8 slams, 7 y/e,                       22 Masters,                   22 500's,                       42 250's                     
Nadal      at  80 has            17 slams, 0 y/e,                       33 Masters,                   21 500's inc 1 Olympics    9 250's
Djoko      at  72 has            14 slams, 5 y/e,                       32 Masters,                   12 500's                          9 250's

Assuming that Nadal and Djoko have the odd slam and a few more Masters left in them, if Fed picks up mostly 500's and 250's from now on, his overall tournament wins score will not be his most impressive statistic by a margin

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Re: Time to go?

Post by bogbrush on Fri Nov 23, 2018 3:20 pm

Connors record really is a fraud, put like that. I knew he accumulated loads in the US in joke fields and short draws.

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