Time to go?

Now that we are discussing it, I may as well give my opinion.

In general I tend to agree that slams may be becoming quite difficult for Fed to win, but that his game is still both sufficiently high level, and sufficiently entertaining, that there is no need for him to be retiring just yet.

However, specifically right now, I am seeing reasons for more robust optimism.  If Rafa's and Nole's struggles are not sorted out soon (a big if obviously), then I would say Fed would be #1 favorite for both W and the USO, and - at worst - #3-#4 favorite for RG.  Admittedly, all three slams would be quite open and Fed would certainly be less than 50% even at Wimbedon, but still - he would have better chance than anyone.  There is even a little voice inside my head (that I have been trying to silence) that wants to ask not "if", but "how many"?

On the other hand, if Rafa and Nole will be fine for RG and beyond, the calculus obviously becomes much less Fed-friendly.  If we see Rafa vs Nole finals in both Madrid and Rome, I will no longer be running around declaring Fed #1 favorite for W/USO.  But even then, I would still give him a fighting chance at Wimbledon (he might need luck and maybe have someone take out at least one of Nole/Rafa first).

summerblues wrote:Barry, my post was meant to be good-humored and light-hearted.  The intent - both in meaning and tone - was exactly as Slippy understood it.

That said, I obviously left too much room for confusion, for which I apologize.

Fair do's - no need to apologise.  I am never impressed by thin-skinned behaviour in others, so I can take my own medicine.  In truth I did not know what you were getting at!

summerblues wrote:Now that we are discussing it, I may as well give my opinion.

In general I tend to agree that slams may be becoming quite difficult for Fed to win, but that his game is still both sufficiently high level, and sufficiently entertaining, that there is no need for him to be retiring just yet.

However, specifically right now, I am seeing reasons for more robust optimism.  If Rafa's and Nole's struggles are not sorted out soon (a big if obviously), then I would say Fed would be #1 favorite for both W and the USO, and - at worst - #3-#4 favorite for RG.  Admittedly, all three slams would be quite open and Fed would certainly be less than 50% even at Wimbedon, but still - he would have better chance than anyone.  There is even a little voice inside my head (that I have been trying to silence) that wants to ask not "if", but "how many"?

On the other hand, if Rafa and Nole will be fine for RG and beyond, the calculus obviously becomes much less Fed-friendly.  If we see Rafa vs Nole finals in both Madrid and Rome, I will no longer be running around declaring Fed #1 favorite for W/USO.  But even then, I would still give him a fighting chance at Wimbledon (he might need luck and maybe have someone take out at least one of Nole/Rafa first).

I agree with you about optimism based on the standard of Fed' play - he is certainly playing well enough to keep going, and I also agree with you that Fed's chances at any slam are not negligible,  but highly dependent upon whether Nadal/Djoko can muster form/decent physical shape.

My take on the Masters is twofold.  Recently Djoko said he was concentrating on the slams, which has not been his modus operandi of recent years when he's in form.  If that's so, and assuming he can re-calibrate his game to peak less often, that augers well for Fed outside slams, but not so well for Fed at the slams.  As far as Nadal is concerned, he has always been a bit like a supernova - very difficult to beat when fit and on form, but going through injury-based lulls in between.  As he gets older the starburst periods seem to be fewer and further between.

The other part of my take on the Masters that the numbers of winners outside the big 4 has risen sharply recently - that sort of taste of success is likely to add to the confidence of some who taste it and to push them on.  Like many I think that Thiem is one to watch this year.  However, Zverev's stalling has shown that Masters success is still a long way from slams.