Nadal is not 100% sure to finish year at number 1.

Tenez wrote:I am happy to bet...despite Nadal being much younger. I think Nadal will struggle everywhere from now. I still maintain that he was partially lucky at the last FO, like he was at IW.

Ok, the bet is on. I don't agree with you unless he really does have some serious injury he will win more slams. Obviously if he really does have a serious injury with his knees that is a different story.

BlueClay wrote:
Ok, the bet is on. I don't agree with you unless he really does have some serious injury he will win more slams. Obviously if he really does have a serious injury with his knees that is a different story.

Yeah, but given we know that already I'm not sure it's much of a bet.

But Nadal is typically the kind of players where his injuries are simply linked to his game. If you cannot win easy (and clearly he did not win many things easy) you are going to be taxing your body. I think with Murray and Djoko Nadal will suffer a lot on all the surfaces now.

Tenez wrote:But Nadal is typically the kind of players where his injuries are simply linked to his game.

But don't you believe all his injuries are a myth?

Julia Santamaria wrote:

Tenez wrote:But Nadal is typically the kind of players where his injuries are simply linked to his game.

But don't you believe all his injuries are a myth?

Not all....but many. I still believe that even if fit...he is not good enough nowadays to win outside clay..and I am pretty confident even his clay run will dry out soon.

Remember that "slippery slope"? Sure he did well again....but it's getting tougher and tougher for him....even on clay.

He's 27 now.
However I think even looking at that is a bit misleading, as he turned pro so early (when he was 16 IIRC, so he has been on pro circuit 11+ years).

Normally people become pro at age 19-20, so in 'real adjusted' terms he is actually 30-31 years old. I think the more tennis you play the 'older' you get- I don't think it's necessarily just ageing. Haas for example still looks fresh at 35- but I think due to injury the number of matches and thus subsequent burnout has been reduced forcibly by injury.

Do you understand the point I'm making?
The fact is you've always predicted slippery slope like every year for the past decade for Nadal (ok that's a slight exaggeration ), yet you always seem to deny it. Now he is getting older I think he will decline, but don't think somehow you will get huge amounts of credit for saying that.

Well...he should be ranked 4th at the end of Wimby so he is not the number 1 quite like he used to be. The slope is there. He has been saved by a further slip down the ranking thanks to Djoko missing that easy smash.

Tenez wrote:Well...he should be ranked 4th at the end of Wimby so he is not the number 1 quite like he used to be. The slope is there. He has been saved by a further slip down the ranking thanks to Djoko missing that easy smash.

For the amount of matches he has played, I don't think his ranking is that bad actually.

And Djokovic did not miss an easy smash, he fell into the net after hitting it.
There was so much to that match, so many twists and turns, in the 4th set 6-5 Nadal serving for the match at 30-15 I believe Djokovic mis-hit the return which landed on the line, Nadal then missed his shot, and then it was 30-30 and Djoko could break back.
I think it's unfair for you to dismiss the whole match on the 'fortune' - or is it really?- Djokovic knows the rules, and as Bogbrush and Djokovic fan HM Mudroch explained there is a reason for the rule- Djokovic should have adjusted to hit the ball in such a way he wouldn't be so close to the net, and if he had done that he may not have made it, or maybe not... who knows.

Anyway overall I think just picking out one incident for the match, and with this dismissing the whole match (I believe Nadal actually won 12 more points than Nole during the whole match- something around that anyway) is nothing short of blatant.

Julia Santamaria wrote:

Tenez wrote:But Nadal is typically the kind of players where his injuries are simply linked to his game.

But don't you believe all his injuries are a myth?

No injured player beats a first class defending player like Djokovic in 5 sets on a grinding surface such as clay.
He faked it big time yesterday in order to take the momentum away from Darcis.
The really injured player turned out t be the one who fought bravely and won the match never showing his opponent he was in any trouble.
It's a shame he had to withdraw.

noleisthebest wrote:
He faked it big time yesterday in order to take the momentum away from Darcis.

You sure of that?
From what I can see Nadal was not moving well. I think I remember in the second set Darcis playing an abysmal dropshot with a lot of air.. the types Nadal, Djoko, and Ferrer eat up for breakfast... yet Nadal limped two steps before simply stopping and then walking back to his line. For me that's not normal, but if you think it's just a fake that's your opinion.

BlueClay wrote:
I have not shown up because I was out of town and did not have a chance to watch any tennis much less post on this forum.

Nadal will come back and be fine, Federer is losing the plot. Want to bet me on this one?  

You never explained his loss in the 1st round, though.
As the one who does not believe in his injuries, do you finally admit that he is not such a talented player as you like to believe?
On what grounds do you expect him to come back and be "fine"?

noleisthebest wrote:

BlueClay wrote:
I have not shown up because I was out of town and did not have a chance to watch any tennis much less post on this forum.

Nadal will come back and be fine, Federer is losing the plot. Want to bet me on this one?  

You never explained his loss in the 1st round, though.
As the one who does not believe in his injuries, do you finally admit that he is not such a talented player as you like to believe?
On what grounds do you expect him to come back and be "fine"?

I did not see the match but from what I have read he played terribly and his opponent played lights out. I don't make excuses for the losses of any player.

On what grounds do I expect him to come back and be fine? How about the fact that he was away for seven months and upon his comeback he has been the most successful player of the year so far and was ahead in the rankings race. If you expect Nadal at 27 to drop off the face of the earth I think you will be in for a rude awakening imo. I think he will be a force for another year and a half or two.

And yes I think he has talent. I don't like his grinding style but he has talent. Duh.

BlueClay wrote:And yes I think he has talent. I don't like his grinding style but he has talent. Duh.

You definition of talent must be different than most.

Talent is an "innate" aptititude. Considering he doesn't even play tennis with his "innate" arm, his tennis is completely designed by Toni, and cannot take the ball early, and that you consider his physical powers all but natural, I woudl like to understand what "innate aptitude" you see in Nadal.

BlueClay wrote:

noleisthebest wrote:

BlueClay wrote:
I have not shown up because I was out of town and did not have a chance to watch any tennis much less post on this forum.

Nadal will come back and be fine, Federer is losing the plot. Want to bet me on this one?  

You never explained his loss in the 1st round, though.
As the one who does not believe in his injuries, do you finally admit that he is not such a talented player as you like to believe?
On what grounds do you expect him to come back and be "fine"?

I did not see the match but from what I have read he played terribly and his opponent played lights out. I don't make excuses for the losses of any player.

How come he played "terribly" (which he didn't - for his standards, that is) all of a sudden?
What was it that transformed him from the 8 time RG winner into somebody who loses to a  5ft 10 SBH-er (who turned out to be injured on top and had to withdraw in the next match as a result) within a week or two?

How realistic is it for Nadal to be year end number one after Montreal?

Nole, wake up ASAP!!!

Djokovic is still the favourite to finish the year number 1.

I'm not sure if I've mentioned this before, but the title is misleading:
Nadal: "I could be number one again if I continue at that level and if I'm not injured. But this is not 100 percent sure."


Nadal is saying he's not 100 percent sure he will 'continue at this level' and 'not be injured.' Not that he's not 100% sure to finish the year at number 1.

noleisthebest wrote:How realistic is it for Nadal to be year end number one after Montreal?

Good question.  At this point, I would say Rafa is the favorite to end the year at #1; though not by much.

If Nole had won in Montreal, he would have been very likely to finish the year at #1.  However, Rafa's win changed two things.  First, it gave Rafa an extra cushion that Nole needs to overhaul.  Second, it indicates that their relative strength at this point is not as favorable for Nole as one might have expected.

In numbers, here is what things looks like:  Rafa currently has a 1,420 point lead in the race (8,010 vs 6,590 points).  Here is how the two of them performed in the post-Montreal part of the year in recent years:

Year	Rafa	Nole
2012	0	4,810
2011	1,970	3,160
2010	3,860	3,030
2009	2,220	4,080
2008	2,050	3,440

(notes: (1) both Rafa and Nole started to get their best results in this part of the season in 2008, so I dropped the earlier years as largely irrelevant; (2) for 2008 I ignored Beijing Olympics points since the equivalent was not available in the other years).

This table tells me that - with their typical performances - Rafa should expect to win 2,000+ points and Nole maybe 3,000-4,000 points.  So it could be very close at the year end - Nole would just about cover the gap that is between them now.  The question then is, how do we expect the two of them to perform relative to their "typical" results.  Judging by what they have done so far this season, as well as how they did - and played - in Montreal, I am giving the nod to Rafa as being likely to do better than his own average, while I am having more doubts about Nole.

In any event, it looks quite finely poised at this point.  Of course, it can all change quite quickly depending on the results in Cincinnati and, especially, at the USO.

Thanks, SB. Very interesting analysis that does not look too promising for Nole.
Still, knowing him, I am convinced that ball in the face will have kicked some of his pride and resolve into action.
The race to number one definitely spices the rest of the season no end!

ouah...Good work SB. Interesting reading.

Nadal certainly seems very keen to do the job and has regained his faith in his game/fitness. Djoko on the other hand has simply lost too much confidence recently. He might turn it around but his game is simply lacking a weapon and that makes all his matches hard work...not very different than Nadal but Nadal has an extra pair of batteries and feels he has still a lot to  prove.

Tenez wrote:ouah...Good work SB. Interesting reading.

Nadal certainly seems very keen to do the job and has regained his faith in his game/fitness. Djoko on the other hand has simply lost too much confidence recently. He might turn it around but his game is simply lacking a weapon and that makes all his matches hard work...not very different than Nadal but Nadal has an extra pair of batteries and feels he has still a lot to  prove.

I reckon he's set his mind on Fed's GS record.

Maybe but he won't come close.

Funny how he gets beaten in the first round of WImby by an injured crap player cause he is simply "not prepared" and then when prepared simply looks unstoppable 4 weeks later!

I remember vividly how he was trying to show he had a mouvement problem (knee) in Wimbledon but Toni was smart enough to say the knee had nothing wrong and that Nadal was simply not "prepared" as he had plans to make him superfit for the end season.

Nowdays an athletes body is no different than a F1 car....it's all about science.

The recent 100m doping cases simply confirms this too.

Yes, the "preparation"! He looks very well prepared for this second half of the season, just like in 2010...I was so depressed about tennis after he won that USO...

I hope it does not repeat this year.

He is going to be tough to beat over 5 sets. Only Djoko and Murray can I believe...Delpo too maybe.

Djokovic will finish the year number 1- I'm pretty sure of that.

Julia Santamaria wrote:Djokovic will finish the year number 1- I'm pretty sure of that.

 You are such a superstitious fan Amri...it's comical. It did work on your last week semi prediction so no reason to stop jinxing!

No no, Djokovic's form on the hard court season I think genuinely will improve- he is tough to beat also on BO5 hard court- unless it's windy.

Tenez wrote:
I remember vividly how he was trying to show he had a mouvement problem (knee) in Wimbledon but Toni was smart enough to say the knee had nothing wrong and that Nadal was simply not "prepared" as he had plans to make him superfit for the end season.

Cmon that's unfair, Nadal in the press conference did not mention his knee once and did not use it as an excuse- he took a similar line to Toni.
However during the match you could tell he wasn't moving well- infact you even noted it during the match. Running to the right was ok, to the lefts and forwards you could tell he wasn't as fast as he normally was- I think I've mentioned before the terrible dropshot from Darcis which Nadal ran a bit to chase, before limping and just totally giving up. You may not like Nadal, but even you will have to admit he doesn't normally stop running to put away poor dropshots.

Anyway it's my birthday today, so I'm off, have fun everyone!  

Happy Birthday Amri.

Happy Bday JS!
As nelson mandela once said when saying his alco pops, "lets get munted."

Tenez, LS; cheers