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Time is short - Federer

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Time is short - Federer

Post by Emancipator on Sat Mar 24, 2018 12:37 pm

Hello

Big Grin 

Yes it is moi. C'est la vie. J'ai ma epelle Emancipator. Je suis parlez vous Francis.

Ok, ok, enough of the linguistic genius.

That's right folks. Federer, after a remarkable upturn in form at the early part of last year, up until the completion of IW to be precise, has been steadily but noticeably - to my expert eye at least - declining. I thought he played well at W albeit a notch below IW but certainly since then he has not really recaptured a similar level for a stretch of matches. Even the perfect run to the AO 18 final, I felt, was more due to weak competition than stellar form. Of course the courts in Oz looked slower to me this year so that could have been a factor.

That's it I've said it. DECLINE. Weep, get psychotically angst ridden (Daniel), go into denial (Tenez), follow suit (NiTB) but it will all be to no avail. Of course he has had a natural decline since the halcyon days (putting aside for a moment the alternative universe where Federer alone in all of human history continues to improve as a sportsman into his mid thirties and beyond) but this particular downturn comes with overtures of finality. 

It was a short and beautiful renaissance. 

Unfortunately the drop in form since then has been fairly clear. He's gritted out a few matches. The window of opportunity to add to the slams is closing fast - quite possibly just this year left. He needs to make the most of it - Nadal is so unpredictable that the race is still not over.

NITB, let us pray

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Emancipator - overload of the galactic realm

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Re: Time is short - Federer

Post by summerblues on Sat Mar 24, 2018 1:42 pm

Emancipator wrote:quite possibly just this year left.
Well yes.  Still an improvement over 2013, when there were quite possibly no years left.  I mean, the guy is almost 37, we all know this could end in a snap, but even if it does, this has been better than any of us could have hoped for.

More seriously, I am not sure about that slow decline since IW 2017.  IW 2017 was where he played his best 2017-18 tennis, but after that it has been more a flat line - not as high level as IW 2017, but not sure he has declined compared to W 2017.

Emancipator wrote:Nadal is so unpredictable that the race is still not over.
That is indeed a problem.  But Fed is too old to be able to totally shut the door all by himself.  He will need to hope that either Rafa declines soon or that someone else helps him.

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Re: Time is short - Federer

Post by Daniel on Sat Mar 24, 2018 2:14 pm

Federer is almost 37.  What amazing powers of deduction you have to realize he is not as good as he once was and will not be around forever.  Wow.

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Re: Time is short - Federer

Post by Emancipator on Sat Mar 24, 2018 2:59 pm

summerblues. wrote:
More seriously, I am not sure about that slow decline since IW 2017.  IW 2017 was where he played his best 2017-18 tennis, but after that it has been more a flat line - not as high level as IW 2017, but not sure he has declined compared to W 2017.

You know I like to bait  Winking

Not much I'd disagree with there except that I think he was playing well in the grass court season. Halle was excellent and W was very good. The court conditions at W (grass cut up after a few days) made it difficult to play without errors. 

Since W there has definitely been a drop off. The reason for the OP was that some fans (not on here) seem to think this can go on for 2-3 years. Possible, but v unlikely.

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Re: Time is short - Federer

Post by bogbrush on Sat Mar 24, 2018 3:02 pm

In principle you’re right Eman, though I wouldn’t overreact to Indian Wells because that was appallingly slow, JMDP has often been trouble, and he did get three match points for the title.

All the more reason to skip all clay again and, perhaps, to take it a little easier after the USO.

I think “this” won’t go on for years but I think if he avoids injury and operates a very careful schedule he could be troubling top players and competitive at Slams for another two years, if he wants it.

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Re: Time is short - Federer

Post by Emancipator on Sat Mar 24, 2018 3:07 pm

Agree - clay should not even be a factor.
R&R does seem to be the key for him to sustain a high level.

IW perhaps could be explained away. 

He doesn't seem to be hitting his BH with the same degree of confidence as the early part of last year. Of course it's tougher to drive through a SHBH on slower courts.

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Re: Time is short - Federer

Post by bogbrush on Sat Mar 24, 2018 3:21 pm

It’s a useful reminder though. These last 15 months have been surreal. He goes 5 years without a Slam, picks up a nasty injury, misses events for the first time..... then returns and wins 3 Slams from 4 entered, grabs a bunch of Masters, starts owning Nadal, and regains the #1 ranking. It’s insane, it’s more than a last hurrah but truly it has to be brief even if it’s a couple or three years.

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Re: Time is short - Federer

Post by summerblues on Sat Mar 24, 2018 4:10 pm

Emancipator wrote:He doesn't seem to be hitting his BH with the same degree of confidence as the early part of last year.
I think he is quite ok, just does not hit some of the breathtaking backhands he hit last spring.  I may have posted it here before, but I love the ones here - 4 stunning BHs in a single game.  The game starts at around 03:15 in the video, and the BHs come at 15:0, 30:15, 30:30 and at the second BP:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8_ZYUcCdezQ

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Re: Time is short - Federer

Post by Tenez on Sat Mar 24, 2018 7:45 pm

Emancipator wrote:Hello

Big Grin 

Yes it is moi. C'est la vie. J'ai ma epelle Emancipator. Je suis parlez vous Francis.

Ok, ok, enough of the linguistic genius.

That's right folks. Federer, after a remarkable upturn in form at the early part of last year, up until the completion of IW to be precise, has been steadily but noticeably - to my expert eye at least - declining. .....

I have also been saying that during the AO. He played worse than last year..but what he is better at then ever is being able to win while not playing his best. He even got to MPs last week in spite of playing quite badly during the whole match and making lots of UEs.

What has surprised me though is that he is able to sustain tough matches one after the other. His match v Delpo was quite a revelation. He had a very tough 3 setter v Coric the day before and yet managed to run for 3 sets. It's only in that 3rd set TB that we saw he had an empty tank.

Still I expected him to pull out of Miami....but no ....he is giving it a go!

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Re: Time is short - Federer

Post by bogbrush on Sat Mar 24, 2018 10:57 pm

Looks like a timely OP.

Perhaps we might move into the next stage of a further abbreviated season focussed on his 3 Slams with prep for each and little else.

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Re: Time is short - Federer

Post by summerblues on Sat Mar 24, 2018 11:00 pm

bogbrush wrote:Looks like a timely OP.

Perhaps we might move into the next stage of a further abbreviated season focussed on his 3 Slams with prep for each and little else.
These are some wild extrapolations.  A week ago you were planning for sunshine double and now you want to kick him out of most tournaments.  Let's take it step by step and see first how the rest of the season goes.

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Re: Time is short - Federer

Post by summerblues on Sat Mar 24, 2018 11:41 pm

Fed now has 11 week break until Stuttgart.  Break between WTF and AO is only 8 weeks (and there was Hopman Cup prep in-between, so really only 6 weeks).  Hopefully Fed uses it well to get rested, take care of whatever niggles he may have, and be ready for the June-August stretch.

I would recommend one grass court prep tournament only.  I say he should play Stuttgart and only enter Halle if he loses early and needs more match practice.

After Wimbledon, again play only one Masters 1000 before the USO.

After the USO, look at what the YE #1 race looks like and if he has a decent chance, he should try, otherwise take it easy and hopefully be back again in 2019.

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Re: Time is short - Federer

Post by bogbrush on Sat Mar 24, 2018 11:43 pm

Well, defeats to people you shouldn’t lose to will change perspectives, especially when the standard is quite ordinary and he looks toothless.

It’s actially not a big change from what he does now; simply drop perhaps one of these two and don’t play Dubai/ Rotterdam; only play one of Canada / Cincy; take it easy after the US.

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Re: Time is short - Federer

Post by bogbrush on Sun Mar 25, 2018 8:25 am

Really pleased to hear that Federer will not be playing the clay again this season. I think realistically he’s played his last clay court match.

Now he can rest up, come back for grass and focus on getting #9 at Wimbledon.

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Re: Time is short - Federer

Post by legendkillar on Sun Mar 25, 2018 9:46 am

bogbrush wrote:Really pleased to hear that Federer will not be playing the clay again this season. I think realistically he’s played his last clay court match.

Now he can rest up, come back for grass and focus on getting #9 at Wimbledon.

I am also pleased to hear he is missing Clay.

Retaining Wimbledon on top of retaining the AO and becoming No.1 again, I would've taken that start of the year.

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Re: Time is short - Federer

Post by Daniel on Sun Mar 25, 2018 2:47 pm

This place is like it's inhabited by goldfish.  One week, Federer has the Neo Backhand -he's deadly, he's gonna win everything, he can challenge for the FO, he will be year end n1, he's at his peak (lmao) -
One loss later....  and it's all changed.  It's like some of you can't see the past or extrapolate what may happen in the future.

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Re: Time is short - Federer

Post by bogbrush on Sun Mar 25, 2018 5:31 pm

Or that there’s more than one of us and we don’t post from multiple accounts.

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Re: Time is short - Federer

Post by barrystar on Mon Mar 26, 2018 12:50 am

It seemed to me as though the #1 ranking stuff was great to start with and then started to be a bit of a weight on his shoulders.  It's a relief he is now taking a good break before the grass season.  He'll very likely be top seed there even if he's not #1.


I guess he'll do the same as last year and enter both Stuttgart and Halle: whilst I doubt he'd want deep runs at both, he'll want to make sure he has a solid handful of matches before Wimbledon so it's worth entering both.


Then, I reckon he'd be better off doing Cincinnati and USO rather than trying Canada again.  He's got the Laver Cup, then I expect Rolex will have him out to Shanghai again, then Basel, then London - although I expect the qualifying bar to be higher this year than over recent years because the Masters wins will be more shared out than usual.


Would be nice to see him get the #100 tournament this year - if he stays fit he must have a decent chance of that as well as Wimbledon.  Probably his last time as one of the serious contenders at the USO - although I think it's too much of a grind for him to win it.  Last year's back injury was really bad timing.

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