Djokovic's dad insults Federer again

Unsurprisingly classless. Guy got lucky his son had a talent for tennis otherwise he’d be grubbing around discovering unexplored bombs on his allotment.

ahahah true and be making pizzas all his life since he was a pizza man, now he can bark at the GOAT cause he lives on sons money.

Now Dimi covid positive from Djoko moron tournament that has infected a lot of other and fucked up tennis for 2020.

Coric positive
Djokovid's fitness coach positive
Dimi coach positive

DJOKOVID HAS INFECTED EVERYONE ahhahaha

The guy's toxic.

Djokovid is covid positive 99%, leaving everyone behind on his own organized tournament, refused to be tested and he just run away from Croatia on a car to Belgrade, where he can lie about the results, while media says he will know tomorrow the result, I'm sure he does know it now, and his PR people making plans for tomorrow. Moron.

Has Djokovic lost the plot? 

Firstly he said in an interview that some special type of water could make him immune to coronavirus: https://twitter.com/simonrbriggs/status/1274989478956990464

And then, if you are going to hold an unnecessary exhibition tournament, why not do so responsibly? It's not a coincidence it spread from Dimitrov to loads of others involved- they weren't bothering with even basic social distancing.

Someone tell him to give some of that water to Dimi, Coric, Troicki and his pregnant wife who is positive too.

Maybe he can cure them and clean the water with mental thoughts as he propagated to us.

Djokovid is Covid Positive, and so is his partying wife, hahahaah fucking idiot.

This is so much worse than Kyrgios' insults to Wawrinka a few years ago. Bringing the game into disrepute. 
He travelled with coronavirus between countries ffs

The matter has, up until now, been the subject of legitimate debate.  But after many years of effort Djoko has finally found a truly objective metric by which he is undoubtedly the GOAT.... of plonkers.

What an absolute coot he has been about this.  The locker room will be a sticky place for him for years to come.  I can't do better than Gregg Rosenthal on Twitter (nope, me neither), who said this:

Djokovic said he might not play US Open because their safety rules were too restrictive. So he created his own tournaments celebrating no restrictions and gets COVID-19. You can’t write this stuff.

Don't forget the theory he peddled on how magic healing water can make on immune to corona

Yeah and how the dirty water can be cleaned with positive thoughts.

You are making a bit too much of this positive test. Excessive panick is what came out of this crisis and I certainly do not wish to be seen as a panicking chicken like many on this planet. To me I have yet to understand the panic behind this flu. Remember this cov is less dangerous than flu for people aged under 50.

What I find unreasonable in this story are those overreacting about this virus, which is in effect, the media, pharmaceutical lobbies, unreasonable mass, and politicians in general. And this panic is certainly much worst and dangerous than the virus itself. Djokovic organising a tournament seems very reasonable to me. he got flu in the process...so what? Don't lose your minds!

That is what I really find pathetic if you ask me!

Andy Murray, umpire Alison Hughes and Liam Broady take a knee before the match

Tenez wrote:You are making a bit too much of this positive test. Excessive panick is what came out of this crisis and I certainly do not wish to be seen as a panicking chicken like many on this planet. To me I have yet to understand the panic behind this flu. Remember this cov is less dangerous than flu for people aged under 50.

What I find unreasonable in this story are those overreacting about this virus, which is in effect, the media, pharmaceutical lobbies, unreasonable mass, and politicians in general. And this panic is certainly much worst and dangerous than the virus itself. Djokovic organising a tournament seems very reasonable to me. he got flu in the process...so what? Don't lose your minds!

This isn't flu. Just to be clear on that point. The virology make up is more akin to SARS than it is flu. It's silliness like that which is what we don't need. 

The reason there is panic is because depending on what country you live in, how they handle it gives perspective to public confidence. Here in the UK frankly it has been shambolic. With the absence of track and test, an earlier lockdown was the key tool to managing the pandemic more effectively and if anything our position was made much worse by it. So if I lived in New Zealand, I would have to say my confidence would be much greater given the response by their government and the seemingly lack of the local village idiot. Given the absence of a globalised approach to tackling the virus is causing concern. Some countries are going for being virus free approach and others taking the live with it approach. Which will lead to a global clusterfuck. 

I watched the Coric and Dimitrov match and was astonished that people congregated like that and now there is a flare up as result. Totally irresponsible. Not sure if it's been confirmed, but there was no testing or temperature checking for fans or even players alike. That's why there is such an outrage about it. At least take some safety measures first! 

I may well be a fit and healthy white male under 50 and fortunate to still be able to work in these times and chances are Covid wouldn't be fatal to me, but I am not going to be reckless with my life and with the lives of others. Those idiots who attended that tournament and even the players who tested positive are probably shitting themselves. Not just because of how it might affect their own health, but because of who they have come into contact with and how it could affect them. 

The media and everything else is a different matter altogether.

Both panic and complacency have been real enemies during this epidemic.  Governments had to do something to stop the spread, and lock-downs will have long-term effects which will cause misery and even death themselves.  It looks at the moment as though it was too little too late for the UK and that the more laissez-faire Governments have been the worse the outcome, but we are a long way to go yet and judgment should be reserved.

I am afraid Djokovic was stunningly complacent and also selfish - it's not him and the young around him who are the problem, but those vulnerable to the disease who he chiefly put at risk, including healthcare workers who, even though they are not per se in a vulnerable category, are exposed to high 'dose' levels of the virus.

legendkillar wrote:...This isn't flu.

 No,  it is not! ...Fortunately! as mentioned again, casualties are on average 80yo or thereabout. Flu is much less discriminating unfortunately. However I am pretty sure that the panic that has  been engineered by some crap scientists, politics and media will make more damage than this pseudo flu.

Djoko and his peers would have caught the real flu, he would have had more chance to die and contamine his peers. Yet not a single media would have made a headline about it. And this is a fact now acknowledged by all real scientists, not those who appear on TV to promote Gilead products.

So the silliness is not where you think it is.

Another interesting fact is that we have yet to see the difference in casualties between countries who have locked down and those who have not.

I am certainly not a fan of Djoko as you all know but frankly there was nothing shocking to me here trying to restart the tour. If it is that dangerous, it is even more silly trying to organise the USO with the US still in full "crisis".

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/1968-pandemic.html

That's flu! But the world did not stop, did it? I am sure, like me you did not even know about it.

https://www.who.int/news-room/detail/14-12-2017-up-to-650-000-people-die-of-respiratory-diseases-linked-to-seasonal-flu-each-year

Cov19 has still a bot of work to do.

barrystar wrote:Both panic and complacency have been real enemies during this epidemic.  Governments had to do something to stop the spread, and lock-downs will have long-term effects which will cause misery and even death themselves. 

We agree. And I really think personally locking down will cause more casualties in the long term than the virus.

It looks at the moment as though it was too little too late for the UK and that the more laissez-faire Governments have been the worse the outcome, but we are a long way to go yet and judgment should be reserved.

I am not sure it is a conseqyuence of a late lock down. It could be genetics (we know it affects some groups more than others), worst climate conds for the spread or many other reasons.

I am afraid Djokovic was stunningly complacent and also selfish - it's not him and the young around him who are the problem, but those vulnerable to the disease who he chiefly put at risk, including healthcare workers who, even though they are not per se in a vulnerable category, are exposed to high 'dose' levels of the virus.

As mentioned above, those organising tournaments during the flu season generate more risk for players and population.

I know it is difficult to understand considering how much we have been conditioned by the media but when the dust settles, we will remember the stupid panic and not the deaths who clearly won't change the curves this year!

@Tenez

"Too little too late" covers the whole range of the UK Government response, from PPE stocks to tracing as well as the lockdown.  In some respects, however, we are ahead of everyone, such as testing treatments and the virus.  As I said, there is a long way to go and the UK may emerge looking relatively better than it appears right now.

As to genetics, the emerging evidence makes genetics less and less likely and instead points to how public health organisations react and societal behavior patterns.  In relation to public health, perhaps the starkest evidence is the hugely different experiences in Lombardy and the Veneto - the latter was 'on it' the former unwittingly created disease-spreading hubs around the health service and made other multiple mistakes.  Also, evidence from the Bronx and Bergamo shows what happened when the disease raged largely unchecked - a ratio of more than 1 death every 400 people in the population (not every person who catches the illness - that is 1/200 or 0.5% - but every person in the area).  That was at an estimated 50% infection rate of the population, and at a similar rate of infection would have translated to the UK at >175,000 deaths, if 60% infection were needed for herd immunity it would have taken 210,000 UK deaths to reach it (60% of 0.5% of 70m) so Professor Ferguson's revised estimate of how many would die to get to herd immunity in the UK is being borne out by real evidence.

The next great 'test bed' is the southern US states where a second wave, or ripple, is happening and infection and hospitalisation rates are rising fast, but death rates are still falling.  If death rates hold steady or continue to fall then something is making this 'ripple' of Coronavirus they are experiencing less deadly than that which occurred in Europe/NY in March-April.  Possibilities include the nature of treatment (Doctors are learning fast) and if it is younger people who are catching it because the old are remaining in isolation.  Once again US citizens are guinea pigs and we won't know about death rates for 2-3 weeks because of the usual 'lag' effect.

Taking 'risks' of the sort that Djoko did is unacceptable - that's the polite word and nothing less will do.  I have always rather liked him, if not with any real affection, but he has taken an absolute dive in my estimation over this debacle.  Taking a more calculated risk of the sort the UK Government is doing to try and ease us out of lockdown is an entirely different matter.  I think it's too early to say what we will remember mostly as a society about this period, but relatives and friends of the c.50k who have died in the UK already know what they will remember most.

Tenez wrote:

legendkillar wrote:...This isn't flu.

 No,  it is not! ...Fortunately! as mentioned again, casualties are on average 80yo or thereabout. Flu is much less discriminating unfortunately. However I am pretty sure that the panic that has  been engineered by some crap scientists, politics and media will make more damage than this pseudo flu.

Djoko and his peers would have caught the real flu,  he would have had more chance to die and contamine his peers. Yet not a single media would have made a headline about it. And this is a fact now acknowledged by all real scientists, not those who appear on TV to promote Gilead products.

So the silliness is not where you think it is.

Another interesting fact is that we have yet to see the difference in casualties between countries who have locked down and those who have not.

I am certainly not a fan of Djoko as you all know but frankly there was nothing shocking to me here trying to restart the tour. If it is that dangerous, it is even more silly trying to organise the USO with the US still in full "crisis".

I tend towards this side of the debate. I would have concentrated on boosting capacity for treatment, advising people as to common sense countermeasures such as washing and care in interaction with others, and let it go.

One thing to remember about viruses is that evolution makes them benign. After a while all the lethal strains die out (because they don't get transmitted) and the softies thrive (because their hosts carry on as normal).

One other point, don't forget that the 'vulnerable' to the illness is not just the elderly and those with pre-conditions &c, but also those who receive exposure to heavy 'doses' of the virus, namely health professionals.  It can be said that they know their jobs are risky, but we owe to such people as well as other vulnerable people in society not to be casual about the threat.

bogbrush wrote:One thing to remember about viruses is that evolution makes them benign. After a while all the lethal strains die out (because they don't get transmitted) and the softies thrive (because their hosts carry on as normal).

True enough, but that takes time, and this is all about reducing the harm that Covid-19 can do in the time available to it.

HMG should have been on this and taking it more seriously from January - I agree with what you say about getting the care measures going - we also should have stopped foreign flights and, unlike you, I think that we should have had an earlier lockdown.  It is easy to over-criticise HMG for their timing of the lockdown given what is understood about SAGE's advice at the time, but Rory Stewart was one making a coherent and responsible case (not a hysterical one) for an earlier lock down in early March.  I think history is likely to prove him right, but a final judgment requires more hindsight than we have at the moment.

barrystar wrote:...

Taking 'risks' of the sort that Djoko did is unacceptable - that's the polite word and nothing less will do.  I have always rather liked him, if not with any real affection, but he has taken an absolute dive in my estimation over this debacle.  Taking a more calculated risk of the sort the UK Government is doing to try and ease us out of lockdown is an entirely different matter.  I think it's too early to say what we will remember mostly as a society about this period, but relatives and friends of the c.50k who have died in the UK already know what they will remember most.

You find it risky/ier cause you still see this virus as a more dangerous plague than flu. And that is the result of media conditioning. But by applying pure reasoning, he is taking less chance than all those TDs organising tournaments in the middle of the flu season. What was really silly was from our president (PM) telling us 7 times in a 30mn pitch that France was at war. That created a panic that filled our hospitals much more than it should have. But again, the media would not pick on that....they love pointing the finger at those who keep cool, those who are insensitive to their fear mongering.

Djokovid's father blaming Dimitrov

Djokovic’s father says Dimitrov damaged the relations with Serbia, Croatia and their family

https://tennistonic.com/tennis-news/171787/incredible-djokovics-father-says-dimitrov-damaged-the-relations-with-serbia-croatia-and-their-family/

barrystar wrote:

bogbrush wrote:One thing to remember about viruses is that evolution makes them benign. After a while all the lethal strains die out (because they don't get transmitted) and the softies thrive (because their hosts carry on as normal).

True enough, but that takes time, and this is all about reducing the harm that Covid-19 can do in the time available to it.

HMG should have been on this and taking it more seriously from January - I agree with what you say about getting the care measures going - we also should have stopped foreign flights and, unlike you, I think that we should have had an earlier lockdown.  It is easy to over-criticise HMG for their timing of the lockdown given what is understood about SAGE's advice at the time, but Rory Stewart was one making a coherent and responsible case (not a hysterical one) for an earlier lock down in early March.  I think history is likely to prove him right, but a final judgment requires more hindsight than we have at the moment.

The problem is that with opinions emanating from every orifice there are bound to be people who call it perfectly right. It doesn't mean they necessarily have wisdom, they might just be the one monkey who typed out the works of Shakespeare. Certainly that individual is a clown on the whole so I don't think he's dependable in to the future.

The one person we can depend upon to always be wrong is Neil Ferguson. Still, won't stop the media and politicians treating his perpetually alarmist "models" as anything meaningful.

Jahu wrote:Djokovid's father blaming Dimitrov

Djokovic’s father says Dimitrov damaged the relations with Serbia, Croatia and their family

https://tennistonic.com/tennis-news/171787/incredible-djokovics-father-says-dimitrov-damaged-the-relations-with-serbia-croatia-and-their-family/

Djokovic's father is clearly on a charm offensive. Knobhead.

Tenez wrote:

legendkillar wrote:...This isn't flu.

 No,  it is not! ...Fortunately! as mentioned again, casualties are on average 80yo or thereabout. Flu is much less discriminating unfortunately. However I am pretty sure that the panic that has  been engineered by some crap scientists, politics and media will make more damage than this pseudo flu.

Djoko and his peers would have caught the real flu,  he would have had more chance to die and contamine his peers. Yet not a single media would have made a headline about it. And this is a fact now acknowledged by all real scientists, not those who appear on TV to promote Gilead products.

So the silliness is not where you think it is.

Another interesting fact is that we have yet to see the difference in casualties between countries who have locked down and those who have not.

I am certainly not a fan of Djoko as you all know but frankly there was nothing shocking to me here trying to restart the tour. If it is that dangerous, it is even more silly trying to organise the USO with the US still in full "crisis".

The scientists haven't been crap. They've had to go at the same pace as the virus itself and hence what is making the vaccine the more difficult is the constant mutating of the virus which is why chances are as strong that a vaccine that can prevent against all strains will be impossible to create. I am more forgiving of scientists because a lot rests on them as to whether the planet can become virus free.

I agree on the comparison with countries purely because none of them any real great accuracy can say when the virus was first present. Take France, there was a report that suspected cases of Covid were detected as early as December 2019 and no casualties. I am not a fan of the excess death statistic as that massively over-compensates more than anything else. 

The issue with Djokovic. If he and the organisers just took basic precautionary measures, I am sure he wouldn't have taken the bashing he has. If he tested players before and after and even if the organisers just did the temperature check. Just basics, I wouldn't have had a big issue with it. 

The USO is a different kind of madness and stupidity. In fairness though, the USPGA has recommenced events without any big fubars yet, so there could still be come hope.

bogbrush wrote:

Tenez wrote:

legendkillar wrote:...This isn't flu.

 No,  it is not! ...Fortunately! as mentioned again, casualties are on average 80yo or thereabout. Flu is much less discriminating unfortunately. However I am pretty sure that the panic that has  been engineered by some crap scientists, politics and media will make more damage than this pseudo flu.

Djoko and his peers would have caught the real flu,  he would have had more chance to die and contamine his peers. Yet not a single media would have made a headline about it. And this is a fact now acknowledged by all real scientists, not those who appear on TV to promote Gilead products.

So the silliness is not where you think it is.

Another interesting fact is that we have yet to see the difference in casualties between countries who have locked down and those who have not.

I am certainly not a fan of Djoko as you all know but frankly there was nothing shocking to me here trying to restart the tour. If it is that dangerous, it is even more silly trying to organise the USO with the US still in full "crisis".

I tend towards this side of the debate. I would have concentrated on boosting capacity for treatment, advising people as to common sense countermeasures such as washing and care in interaction with others, and let it go.

Issue with boosting the capacity for treatment is around what needs to be strengthened the most to combat the virus. For example take the ventilators and the recent dexamethasone discovery. The cost of producing mass quantities of ventilators and then what to do with them once the virus peak subsides was going to be a ballache for the UK (more so when you throw in the Dyson fiasco). I don't think any country could get to the capacity needed to prevent thousands of deaths. The PPE stock challenges has been one which has amused me on how this has been reported. What hasn't helped the challenges aside from saturated market of buyers globally all chasing the same product has been the wave of cowboys ripping off buyers at obscene levels. 

The UK Government should've gone into lockdown earlier as the recovery from that as we have seen elsewhere you can use the time lockdown buys you to develop track and trace capacity and any mini outbreaks that happen are much more manageable. The government strategy has been beyond baffling. An earlier lockdown may not have prevented the levels of deaths, however might have made a dent in the level of infection rates. 

Common sense as a countermeasure. Even the liberal in me would have grave concerns with that. The sad thing is despite certain measures really being quite simple, either some try to be overly smart and try something that inflames or just don't follow it out of some righteous rebellious ideology. Down here public transport has the guidance it must adhere to (face coverings) and some of the drivers not wearing facial coverings as some of the passengers aren't either. Some will take the in for a penny in for a pound approach and abandon any form of additional consideration or logical thinking. 

Here in Brighton we had one of the first cases and it was actually at my GP Surgery when the locum tested positive for Covid. I have to say the local response was quite measured. Patients enquired as to whether he treated anyone since he came back from skiing (which he didn't) and the surgery closed for 14 days only doing online and over the phone consultations. The local media response was amusing in terms of the hysteria of trying to make out the area was now going to be infected which wasn't the case at all. 

What I have noted from the 6 months of home working is the social strain this is had on people who are by nature and habit thrive on social interaction. With some I have worked with, it's sucked the life right out of them and I think that has been something largely un-noticed.

legendkillar wrote:

Tenez wrote:

legendkillar wrote:...This isn't flu.

 No,  it is not! ...Fortunately! as mentioned again, casualties are on average 80yo or thereabout. Flu is much less discriminating unfortunately. However I am pretty sure that the panic that has  been engineered by some crap scientists, politics and media will make more damage than this pseudo flu.

Djoko and his peers would have caught the real flu,  he would have had more chance to die and contamine his peers. Yet not a single media would have made a headline about it. And this is a fact now acknowledged by all real scientists, not those who appear on TV to promote Gilead products.

So the silliness is not where you think it is.

Another interesting fact is that we have yet to see the difference in casualties between countries who have locked down and those who have not.

I am certainly not a fan of Djoko as you all know but frankly there was nothing shocking to me here trying to restart the tour. If it is that dangerous, it is even more silly trying to organise the USO with the US still in full "crisis".

The scientists haven't been crap. They've had to go at the same pace as the virus itself and hence what is making the vaccine the more difficult is the constant mutating of the virus which is why chances are as strong that a vaccine that can prevent against all strains will be impossible to create. I am more forgiving of scientists because a lot rests on them as to whether the planet can become virus free.

I agree on the comparison with countries purely because none of them any real great accuracy can say when the virus was first present. Take France, there was a report that suspected cases of Covid were detected as early as December 2019 and no casualties. I am not a fan of the excess death statistic as that massively over-compensates more than anything else. 

The issue with Djokovic. If he and the organisers just took basic precautionary measures, I am sure he wouldn't have taken the bashing he has. If he tested players before and after and even if the organisers just did the temperature check. Just basics, I wouldn't have had a big issue with it. 

The USO is a different kind of madness and stupidity. In fairness though, the USPGA has recommenced events without any big fubars yet, so there could still be come hope.

As I understand it the virus is not mutating fast, or at least not in a fashion which causes huge concern (nor, sadly, so as to be becoming benign fast - although history suggests that it will as BB says).  In any event they'd be delighted to have a vaccine which just 'took the edge off' the virus so those protected still get the disease, but just not so seriously.

I agree with you on Djokovic, it was criminally arrogant and selfish not to take basic measures.  I agree that the USO is a different case because they are obviously looking at preventative measures, the question is whether they'll be enough and get the balance right so that there is a tournament.  Djoko may have done them a favour in terms of demonstrating how wrong things can go.

The other thing to remember is natural immunity. I have a feeling 75% or more might be incapable of catching this which added to those who've had it means it's running into a wall not because of lockdown measures but effective herd immunity.

Going right back to the start, the cruise ship of oldies who were a great boatload of lab rats showed only 19% caught it despite them all being together and lockdown being what they did when they left their cabins.

bogbrush wrote:

barrystar wrote:

bogbrush wrote:One thing to remember about viruses is that evolution makes them benign. After a while all the lethal strains die out (because they don't get transmitted) and the softies thrive (because their hosts carry on as normal).

True enough, but that takes time, and this is all about reducing the harm that Covid-19 can do in the time available to it.

HMG should have been on this and taking it more seriously from January - I agree with what you say about getting the care measures going - we also should have stopped foreign flights and, unlike you, I think that we should have had an earlier lockdown.  It is easy to over-criticise HMG for their timing of the lockdown given what is understood about SAGE's advice at the time, but Rory Stewart was one making a coherent and responsible case (not a hysterical one) for an earlier lock down in early March.  I think history is likely to prove him right, but a final judgment requires more hindsight than we have at the moment.

The problem is that with opinions emanating from every orifice there are bound to be people who call it perfectly right. It doesn't mean they necessarily have wisdom, they might just be the one monkey who typed out the works of Shakespeare. Certainly that individual is a clown on the whole so I don't think he's dependable in to the future.

The one person we can depend upon to always be wrong is Neil Ferguson. Still, won't stop the media and politicians treating his perpetually alarmist "models" as anything meaningful.

It's not 'who' says it that counts, it's the explanation they give for what they say.  Stewart's was entirely rational and thought through.  I disagree with you about him being a clown, if we are on the subject of clowns I'd say that includes pretty much the entire Cabinet.  At least, unlike them, Stewart 'shows his working', so if you agree or disagree with him you know why.

Ferguson's revised prediction of c.200k if we went for herd immunity at 60% is looking pretty aligned with the evidence from the Bronx and Bergamo as I wrote above.  

Anyway, I think the real scandal of HMG's response will prove to have been the care homes.

bogbrush wrote:The other thing to remember is natural immunity. I have a feeling 75% or more might be incapable of catching this which added to those who've had it means it's running into a wall not because of lockdown measures but effective herd immunity.

Going right back to the start, the cruise ship of oldies who were a great boatload of lab rats showed only 19% caught it despite them all being together and lockdown being what they did when they left their cabins.

In the Bronx they reckoned c.50% had had it a few weeks ago, quite probably more now, and something similar for Bergamo.  I think your 75% not being capable of getting it is wrong - as I understand the evidence there is less and less room for 'black matter' explanations.

barrystar wrote:

bogbrush wrote:

barrystar wrote:

bogbrush wrote:One thing to remember about viruses is that evolution makes them benign. After a while all the lethal strains die out (because they don't get transmitted) and the softies thrive (because their hosts carry on as normal).

True enough, but that takes time, and this is all about reducing the harm that Covid-19 can do in the time available to it.

HMG should have been on this and taking it more seriously from January - I agree with what you say about getting the care measures going - we also should have stopped foreign flights and, unlike you, I think that we should have had an earlier lockdown.  It is easy to over-criticise HMG for their timing of the lockdown given what is understood about SAGE's advice at the time, but Rory Stewart was one making a coherent and responsible case (not a hysterical one) for an earlier lock down in early March.  I think history is likely to prove him right, but a final judgment requires more hindsight than we have at the moment.

The problem is that with opinions emanating from every orifice there are bound to be people who call it perfectly right. It doesn't mean they necessarily have wisdom, they might just be the one monkey who typed out the works of Shakespeare. Certainly that individual is a clown on the whole so I don't think he's dependable in to the future.

The one person we can depend upon to always be wrong is Neil Ferguson. Still, won't stop the media and politicians treating his perpetually alarmist "models" as anything meaningful.

It's not 'who' says it that counts, it's the explanation they give for what they say.  Stewart's was entirely rational and thought through.  I disagree with you about him being a clown, if we are on the subject of clowns I'd say that includes pretty much the entire Cabinet.  At least, unlike them, Stewart 'shows his working', so if you agree or disagree with him you know why.

Ferguson's revised prediction of c.200k if we went for herd immunity at 60% is looking pretty aligned with the evidence from the Bronx and Bergamo as I wrote above.  

Anyway, I think the real scandal of HMG's response will prove to have been the care homes.

Ferguson is a fraud. Take your pick of his previous outrageously bad models.

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/six-questions-that-neil-ferguson-should-be-asked

barrystar wrote:

bogbrush wrote:The other thing to remember is natural immunity. I have a feeling 75% or more might be incapable of catching this which added to those who've had it means it's running into a wall not because of lockdown measures but effective herd immunity.

Going right back to the start, the cruise ship of oldies who were a great boatload of lab rats showed only 19% caught it despite them all being together and lockdown being what they did when they left their cabins.

In the Bronx they reckoned c.50% had had it a few weeks ago, quite probably more now, and something similar for Bergamo.  I think your 75% not being capable of getting it is wrong - as I understand the evidence there is less and less room for 'black matter' explanations.

I'll bet you I'm right.

These 50% numbers sound like bullshit - sources?

Oh no, this thread has turned into Covid shit now.

Well since I live near a big hospital center, that makes me an expert on Covid 

I am a proponent of the idea that no action should of been taken and let the population get infected and get some immunity, a few more deaths would of happen, but fuck it, locking 99% of the population cause of few old people ill with 4 other illnesses who died, was silly.

Fuck I lost most of the year on business side too from this corona shit.

bogbrush wrote:

barrystar wrote:

bogbrush wrote:The other thing to remember is natural immunity. I have a feeling 75% or more might be incapable of catching this which added to those who've had it means it's running into a wall not because of lockdown measures but effective herd immunity.

Going right back to the start, the cruise ship of oldies who were a great boatload of lab rats showed only 19% caught it despite them all being together and lockdown being what they did when they left their cabins.

In the Bronx they reckoned c.50% had had it a few weeks ago, quite probably more now, and something similar for Bergamo.  I think your 75% not being capable of getting it is wrong - as I understand the evidence there is less and less room for 'black matter' explanations.

I'll bet you I'm right.

These 50% numbers sound like bullshit - sources?

Cannot find the direct source, but having gone through my WhatsApp the 50% is a repetition of what a friend of mine told me on 5 June was CDC's estimate (CDC being the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in the US) based on antibody tests.  I'd expect him faithfully to have reported on what CDC said, but I can't find it directly.  It also tallies with the IFR's which are cropping up of between 0.5% and 1%

I think Brooklyn/Manhattan was on 12-15% on antibody test that they have been positive on a group of around 10k people tested.

Jahu wrote:I think Brooklyn/Manhattan was on 12-15% on antibody test that they have been positive on a group of around 10k people tested.

That was my understanding too.

I reckon it tops out at 20% max. After that we get to those who are immune.

barrystar wrote:

legendkillar wrote:

Tenez wrote:

legendkillar wrote:...This isn't flu.

 No,  it is not! ...Fortunately! as mentioned again, casualties are on average 80yo or thereabout. Flu is much less discriminating unfortunately. However I am pretty sure that the panic that has  been engineered by some crap scientists, politics and media will make more damage than this pseudo flu.

Djoko and his peers would have caught the real flu,  he would have had more chance to die and contamine his peers. Yet not a single media would have made a headline about it. And this is a fact now acknowledged by all real scientists, not those who appear on TV to promote Gilead products.

So the silliness is not where you think it is.

Another interesting fact is that we have yet to see the difference in casualties between countries who have locked down and those who have not.

I am certainly not a fan of Djoko as you all know but frankly there was nothing shocking to me here trying to restart the tour. If it is that dangerous, it is even more silly trying to organise the USO with the US still in full "crisis".

The scientists haven't been crap. They've had to go at the same pace as the virus itself and hence what is making the vaccine the more difficult is the constant mutating of the virus which is why chances are as strong that a vaccine that can prevent against all strains will be impossible to create. I am more forgiving of scientists because a lot rests on them as to whether the planet can become virus free.

I agree on the comparison with countries purely because none of them any real great accuracy can say when the virus was first present. Take France, there was a report that suspected cases of Covid were detected as early as December 2019 and no casualties. I am not a fan of the excess death statistic as that massively over-compensates more than anything else. 

The issue with Djokovic. If he and the organisers just took basic precautionary measures, I am sure he wouldn't have taken the bashing he has. If he tested players before and after and even if the organisers just did the temperature check. Just basics, I wouldn't have had a big issue with it. 

The USO is a different kind of madness and stupidity. In fairness though, the USPGA has recommenced events without any big fubars yet, so there could still be come hope.

As I understand it the virus is not mutating fast, or at least not in a fashion which causes huge concern (nor, sadly, so as to be becoming benign fast - although history suggests that it will as BB says).  In any event they'd be delighted to have a vaccine which just 'took the edge off' the virus so those protected still get the disease, but just not so seriously.

I agree with you on Djokovic, it was criminally arrogant and selfish not to take basic measures.  I agree that the USO is a different case because they are obviously looking at preventative measures, the question is whether they'll be enough and get the balance right so that there is a tournament.  Djoko may have done them a favour in terms of demonstrating how wrong things can go.

Well depends on what you consider fast. I know in April it was reported there was 40 strains they had seen as a result of mutation and that recently was reduced to 24. Right now natural immunity will be the only defence to make this benign fast which I suspect won't be the case yet. I am interested to see what difference Dexamethasone makes in treatment as that might potentially give the pharmaceutical companies more time to develop a vaccine of some kind, but I am entirely optimistic with the rumblings I have heard. 

Djokovic will find this difficult to shrug off, though the players who were there need to carry the can for this too. I mean if there wasn't testing going on, that would ring alarm bells for me.

A virus will become predominantly benign faster in the absence of a vaccine. The aggressive strains will only die back if they are prevented from getting about, and that means having debilitating effects.

Jahu wrote:Oh no, this thread has turned into Covid shit now.

Well since I live near a big hospital center, that makes me an expert on Covid 

I am a proponent of the idea that no action should of been taken and let the population get infected and get some immunity, a few more deaths would of happen, but fuck it, locking 99% of the population cause of few old people ill with 4 other illnesses who died, was silly.

Fuck I lost most of the year on business side too from this corona shit.

I've had my fill of Covid and from next week I get to work in a lab company   so I am hoping not too much grief. 

It's interesting when I speak with those in the major pharmaceutical companies and the ballache they had with the antibody testing. A few high placed people I speak with at Department of Health have had some stories to share that's for sure! One of my favourites being when they were sourcing PPE from China, death by hanging was in the terms and conditions for non payment  

My big issue is around the economy side and how SME's have been left by the wayside in relation to furlough and getting financial support given they make up 60% of the economy. I just finished a stint with a Uni and some of the conversations with Whitehall and parts of the treasury were baffling to say the least. More so when they told the Uni's to naff off when they sought financial support. Can't wait to see that come back and bite when they tally the number of skilled workers who bugger off after Brexit is finalised. 

It's strange times. A first for me was having to remain in a hospital car park whilst me dad was having his radiotherapy. Never known a hospital car park half empty!

barrystar wrote:Governments had to do something to stop the spread, and lock-downs will have long-term effects which will cause misery and even death themselves.

My impression is that the overall danger of covid is right at the point where it is difficult to make judgements - sufficiently dangerous that one feels we cannot just ignore it but not so dangerous to make it absolutely obvious.

Here in the US, in a typical year NYC has around 50K deaths (from all causes) quite consistently, out of which maybe 1500 are from flu.   Covid has already killed ~20K and it looks quite plausible that with no social distancing the number could go (could have gone) to ~80K.  Is 20-80K number large enough to shut down the city (and the country on account of potentially similar risk everywhere)?  On one hand, these death counts are orders of magnitude worse than flu, which makes one want to do something.  On the other hand, the worst case outcome of 80K would mean about 1% of population dying (in a crowded NYC and likely less elsewhere).  Obviously horrible, but Spanish flu is estimated to have killed 1-3% of the world population, and we did not stop the world then.  And, as you say, stopping the world is not free of negative consequences.

I am lucky in that I can work from home, my income has not been negatively impacted, my spending has gone down, being an introvert I am quite happy to stay mostly home - and my wife and I can enjoy lunch together every day!  So for me personally these lockdowns work brilliantly.  But I can see why it is not an obvious call to make.

East Asia seems to have done generally very well.  I suspect they are just more disciplined in wearing masks and generally heeding guidelines - either because of culture or because of recent bad experience with other viruses.

It is clear to me, however, that covid is way too dangerous to allow RG to proceed.

summerblues wrote:It is clear to me, however, that covid is way too dangerous to allow RG to proceed.

Oh absolutely

Well clay is dead this year, Masters and RG no logic holding them in Sept-Oct when its the HC season and WTF.

LK you are one crazy medicinal 007 agent git  

These like & dislike buttons - they don't seem to do anything.

I can see that I like you BB, can you see that I liked you? 

https://imgur.com/a/lcJ7Yq4