Expert Analysis: 6 reasons why Thiem will beat Nadal

For those of you thinking that this is a jinx etc., I can assure you it is my genuine honest opinion. Not only am I confident that Thiem will beat Nadal, but I can list the main reasons why.
Please also bear in mind while reading these 6 reasons that I am a tennis expert.

1/ Nadal is making too many unforced errors
Nadal is making many unforced errors, especially on the backhand side, missing regulation shots. A solid baseliner like Thiem will make him pay for that. It will lead to Nadal losing confidence and then dropping the ball short.

2/ Nadal nowhere near as fast as previous years
It's all well and good crushing Gasquet who is 5m behind the baseline, but when Nadal did play badly vs Shwartzmann and drop the ball short, it became clear how much slower he is compared to the past. Most of his previous 10 titles came when he had sensational speed, however now he struggles to make ground when behind in a rally. He's still good defensively when he does reach the ball as he has the ability to make the next shot awkward for the opposition, but number of balls he reaches is way down.

3/ Thiem beat Nadal in their last match in straights
Thiem won their last match in straights, it was on the clay of Madrid where Nadal had home support. Thiem has beaten Nadal twice in the past 2 years, and his form is better now than it was back in Madrid, in fact I've watched his matches this for night and he's playing better than ever, form of his life.

4/ Weather suits Thiem
There are contradicting forecasts, but the nightmare possibility, also known as Bogbrush's dream situation, of light rain during the match but not enough to go off, is possible.

5/ Nadal serving very badly
One thing Nadal was doing well last season was serving well, especially the flatter serve into the right hander's forehand. However that serve seems to have disappeared, and his serve was genuinely worse than 5'7 Schwartzmann in the QF. Nadal is barely getting any unreturnables or even setting himself up for the 1-2, his serve has proven to be a liability this fortnight. Thiem meanwhile is serving huge, so will have a big advantage from the off.

6/ Old Nadal won't have the stamina
Aged 32, Nadal's recent record in the past few years in 5 setters has been abysmal, he looks tired very easily. Thiem meanwhile is 25 which is close to physical prime. Thiem has also played much less tennis than Nadal over the past 2 weeks, more gas left in the tank. Only hope for Nadal if it does become an extended match is that it starts raining and he can claim the rain is too much before scurrying off to the locker room.

Oh Dec....your faithful (jinxing) dedication to Nadal is endearing!

It would indeed be great of Thiem won today...if nothing than for your nic DECIMA to remain the same...it sounds perfect.

Though 666 would be more appropriate, but then again not even Nadal’s doctors could make him last that long!  

So your 6 reasons to why he is going to lose today will have to do.

What is this? 6 reasons to convince and prepare yourself that Nadal will lose today?

If Nadal wins, will you quit writing analysis?

We know you. 6 ways to try to jinx the outcome!

You would rather look foolish than having Nadal losing!

At first I read the title: "Expert Analysis 6: reasons why Thiem will beat Nadal.

That would have been a better title.

This is excellent, perhaps one of the finest examples of World Class jinxing.

To write so much with believing a word of it.... truly impressive Amrit!

Just to clarify, this article was written a year in advance for tomorrow.

embarrassing. If he wins, you claim you're great. If he doesn't, you're still happy Nadal won.

You should also be embarrassed for Nadal - and his draw again.

Daniel2 wrote:embarrassing. If he wins, you claim you're great.

Well, predicting a result 1 year and a day in advance is pretty impressive.

I think based on Thiem’s steady improvement throughout the tournament he would have had a decent chance of winning. Unfortunately playing 4 days in a row with a potential 13 sets in that period will have scuppered any chance he would have had.

Rafa has played 3 sets in the 5 days prior to Sunday; Thiem has played 8 sets in the 3 days prior to Sunday. It’s a massive disadvantage.

But tbh I’m not too bothered.

Screech has lost and I’m delighted about that.

lol I had read almost all thread when I found out it was a year old



in my case, what do I want? Nadal to win, of course
what do I think will happen tomorrow? Nadal will win

am I 100% sure? no, of course not

Some of the reasons above exposed, eventhough they are 1 year old, are true facts, that give thiem some chance to win

first of all, thiem, he is good, really good, but above all he is a claycourter. with this I mean he is not only a great player, he really is a clay specialist. he has the perfect game to aproach nadal.


their h2h on clay is pretty balanced: 7-4
it is true though that it is 3-0 at roland garros

and Thiem has just showed the world he can compete at the highest level, beating Novak who was himself searching his second "NovakSlam"


but there are also reasons to think nadal will win

he is the defending champion, he has won 11 times here, he is 92-2 in paris and he is fresh and rested, and thiem has just spent 2,5 hours on court, with no extra day to recover and will have played 4 days in a row (he has played 6 hours in 3 days) while nadal has played 4 hours in 5 days

and in general, nadal might not be at the level of 2017-18, but he is playing ok in paris

DEC1M7 wrote:

Daniel2 wrote:embarrassing. If he wins, you claim you're great.

Well, predicting a result 1 year and a day in advance is pretty impressive.

Not really.  He was last year's finalist and the only other decent clay player aside from Djok.  It's not exactly predicting Zverev - is it?

Rafa has played 3 sets in the 5 days prior to Sunday; Thiem has played 8 sets in the 3 days prior to Sunday. It’s a massive disadvantage.

Yup.  Lucker as usual.

I love those OP from Amri....it shows how he wets himself before matches involving Rafa.

Should be 6 reasons you need to get a brain.

Daniel2 wrote:Should be 6 reasons you need to get a brain.

Honestly, you need to remove yourself from Nadal's small doper penis.  It's not healthy for you to admire someone who's a serial cheat. 

If I ever need reminding of how law of the school playground was, I will just come here