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Slam chase - Page 2 Empty Re: Slam chase

Post by naxroy on Wed Jun 12, 2019 9:17 am

Truth is the chase is in a very interesting point.

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Post by Jahu on Wed Jun 12, 2019 12:23 pm

No one will surpass 21 GS no worries. Still equaling Fed would suck.

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Post by barrystar on Wed Jun 12, 2019 1:13 pm

naxroy wrote:Truth is the chase is in a very interesting point.  

Ain't that just so, and as lk has said, it's largely because Nadal can win slams away from clay.  

In relation to W2019, Federer's standard in 2019 suggests he has a much better chance than I expected him to a year ago, it's a realistic chance and if he starts fit he's justifiably one of the favourites for sure.  Not one other player in the draw will want to face him.  That said, he must avoid niggles like the hand that helped derail him in 2018 and the draw has to fall OK for him.  There are plenty that could snag him up with a couple of tough 4-set matches in earlier rounds that would help screw the SF/F.  If the draw follows seeding he'll have to beat Nadal and Djoko one after the other in the final two rounds, and I don't think he can do that.

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Post by legendkillar on Thu Jun 13, 2019 7:56 pm

summerblues wrote:
legendkillar wrote:One has to think there is potential for Federer to add another Wimbledon to the collection. 

I think Nadal's chances are slim at Wimbledon and AO respectively. One has to think Federer needs a clean sweep on Grass and head into the US HC season a few points of Nadal in a bid to secure 2nd seeding at the USO.
Oh no, this seems to suggest Fed needs to win Wimbledon and also maybe USO (he "needs" a clean sweep on grass AND to head to USO as 2nd seed).  If Fed "needs" to do anything more than win Wimbledon, I think we are in trouble.  I think we may be in trouble even if Fed only needs to win Wimbledon.

I see a little bit too much optimism here regarding Fed's chances to add to his slam tally, especially at Wimbledon.  I think he has a chance at Wimbledon, but significantly less than 50%.  And even less chance at USO/AO, and probably just about no chance thereafter.

What is significantly less than 50%? 0%? -10%? Less chance? About no chance? I mean that's really putting your neck out there. Seen more optimism in a weather forecast. 

Being serious, I think Federer's chances are looking good. Granted another year older, but if we are honest no-one has really jumped out as a genuine threat besides Tsitsipas. Federer was caught cold last year against Anderson as that match unfolded and even if Federer came out in 5, he was cooked for the matches beyond. 

Now given Nadal has inched closer to Federer in the Slam chase, given the US Open is Nadal's 2nd most successful Slam event I would say if he wasn't to be one of the top 2 seeds there, he could end up in Novak's half of the draw. Given how the point race is looking, if Federer was to win Wimbledon and say add Halle, he would be quite close to Nadal going into the HC season. 

Of course, all ifs and buts.

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Post by summerblues on Fri Jun 14, 2019 1:43 am

legendkillar wrote:What is significantly less than 50%? 0%? -10%? Less chance? About no chance? I mean that's really putting your neck out there. Seen more optimism in a weather forecast.
Ha I suppose.  Ok, I would say maybe 25% chance Fed wins Wimbledon.

But what I was trying to say was that even if the chance was close to 50%, that would still not be too happy if we expect he still needs to win more slams.

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Post by summerblues on Fri Jun 14, 2019 1:47 am

I am encouraged by the opening here:
barrystar wrote:Federer's standard in 2019 suggests he has a much better chance than I expected him to a year ago

But this gives way to more sober thoughts soon:
barrystar wrote:That said, he must avoid niggles like the hand that helped derail him in 2018 and the draw has to fall OK for him.

And finally ends with a hammer blow of cold hard truth:
barrystar wrote:If the draw follows seeding he'll have to beat Nadal and Djoko one after the other in the final two rounds, and I don't think he can do that.

mhmmmm...this whole slam chase is getting too nervy for my liking...

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Post by BEL19VE on Fri Jun 14, 2019 2:30 am

Relax, there's nothing to worry about

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Post by legendkillar on Fri Jun 14, 2019 8:14 am

summerblues wrote:
legendkillar wrote:What is significantly less than 50%? 0%? -10%? Less chance? About no chance? I mean that's really putting your neck out there. Seen more optimism in a weather forecast.
Ha I suppose.  Ok, I would say maybe 25% chance Fed wins Wimbledon.

But what I was trying to say was that even if the chance was close to 50%, that would still not be too happy if we expect he still needs to win more slams.

I'd take the view if fans (if that is their desire) want Federer to finish ahead of Nadal in the Slam count, my view would be Federer needs at least 1 more Slam to probably remain unsurpassed (not to say he wouldn't be equalled).

Nadal for me his best chances to add obviously FO and USO. Federer Wimbledon and AO. 

Think as barry says, if Federer can get a draw that opens up, one would make him a strong favourite. He would love the final 8 line up at the 2017 Wimbledon that's for sure.

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Post by naxroy on Fri Jun 14, 2019 8:37 am

I see Novak as a more dangerous threat for Federer

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Post by Tenez on Fri Jun 14, 2019 11:35 am

I am more concerned on organisers trying to help Nadal overtake federer than Nadal's real ability to get to 20.

Let's not forget that once again, he was given a dead easy draw and ridiculous conditions to add yet another bloody lucky slam!

This luck has certainly been a huge factor for Nadal's number.

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Post by BEL19VE on Fri Jun 14, 2019 2:36 pm

He has had 18 bouts of good luck! Winking

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Post by naxroy on Fri Jun 14, 2019 3:16 pm

Tenez wrote:I am more concerned on organisers trying to help Nadal overtake federer than Nadal's real ability to get to 20.

Let's not forget that once again, he was given a dead easy draw and ridiculous conditions to add yet another bloody lucky slam!

This luck has certainly been a huge factor for Nadal's number.


LOL

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Post by BEL19VE on Fri Jun 14, 2019 3:51 pm

Let's not forget Federer's last Slam win which had a VERY TOUGH run in. I'm sure Federer was quaking in his boots at the prospect of Berdych, Chung, then Cilic from the QF onwards, further proof of Tenez's theory that Federer is the unluckiest human alive.

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Post by naxroy on Fri Jun 14, 2019 4:26 pm

Tenez wrote:I am more concerned on organisers trying to help Nadal overtake federer than Nadal's real ability to get to 20.

Let's not forget that once again, he was given a dead easy draw and ridiculous conditions to add yet another bloody lucky slam!

This luck has certainly been a huge factor for Nadal's number.


So, taking into consideration such "luck", do you think Federer record is safe or not? and do you see nadal and his "luck" more of a threat than novak?

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Post by Emancipator on Sun Jun 16, 2019 9:08 pm

naxroy wrote:
Tenez wrote:I am more concerned on organisers trying to help Nadal overtake federer than Nadal's real ability to get to 20.

Let's not forget that once again, he was given a dead easy draw and ridiculous conditions to add yet another bloody lucky slam!

This luck has certainly been a huge factor for Nadal's number.


LOL
A very reasonable discussion gets derailed by the usual absurdity.
All the star players get preferential tx in terms of scheduling, show courts, practice sessions etc. The merits or not of that can be debated. The rest is simply (tenuous and frankly tedious) conjecture.

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Post by Tenez on Sun Jun 16, 2019 10:42 pm

naxroy wrote:
Tenez wrote:I am more concerned on organisers trying to help Nadal overtake federer than Nadal's real ability to get to 20.

Let's not forget that once again, he was given a dead easy draw and ridiculous conditions to add yet another bloody lucky slam!

This luck has certainly been a huge factor for Nadal's number.


So, taking into consideration such "luck", do you think Federer record is safe or not? and do you see nadal and his "luck" more of a threat than novak?

Is your question an acknowledgement that I was dead right saying players do not peak at 26 or 27.....cause if that was the case, Nadal, Djoko and Federer would be nowhere near the top racking up slams 7 or 10 years later!...regardless of the rest of the field.

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Post by naxroy on Sun Jun 16, 2019 11:36 pm

My question Was clear

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Post by raiders_of_the_lost_ark on Mon Jun 17, 2019 11:09 am

Tenez wrote:I am more concerned on organisers trying to help Nadal overtake federer than Nadal's real ability to get to 20.

Let's not forget that once again, he was given a dead easy draw and ridiculous conditions to add yet another bloody lucky slam!

This luck has certainly been a huge factor for Nadal's number.

I don't see any real substance in this claim. Fed is by far the most marketable tennis player ever and people in management certainly would want him to have all records with him than Nadal or anyone else.

TDs did have build up conditions to groom this rivalry and in general, have more baseline game. But there is no real substance other than hearsay that he was 'given' a dead easy draw and ridiculous conditions. At RG especially, he has passed all easy/tough draws to win 12 slams.

This year, he was indeed lucky with the weather completely ruining any chances Thiem had. But RG always had this kind of no-day-margins-no-roof stupid planning. It did eventually favoured Nadal, but it wasn't given he would have lost otherwise. He has won when he too was affected by rain delays and schedule getting packed.

Luck has favoured him, but he creates so many chances for himself, especially on clay,  he deserved to be lucky on some of those. It's all about creating enough chances.

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Post by raiders_of_the_lost_ark on Mon Jun 17, 2019 11:20 am

naxroy wrote:I see Novak as a more dangerous threat for Federer
 Slam count is still some distance away for him, But I do see Fed's other records are being seriously chased by Djokovic.

No. of weeks as#1
No. of WTF titles.

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Post by barrystar on Mon Jun 17, 2019 12:01 pm

Of course, there is a pretty tight slam chase (of sorts) happening on the women's side.  One can almost chew the WTA's  longing for the super PC Serena Williams to overhaul the open critic of LGBT rights that is Margaret Court.

Personally I think Court is ridiculous, and the fact that 13/24 of her slams were won in the Amateur era makes her about as relevant to a modern slam record as the slam tallies of Roy Emerson or Rod Laver were on the men's side.  That said, the obvious discomfort experienced by the WTA due to their inability to airbrush Court completely out of existence on account of the fact that 24>23 does have its grimly amusing side.

Also, and unlike the men, the women's game does seem to be throwing up players who, even if they cannot maintain consistency for longer periods, are more than capable of stepping up to the plate vs. Williams at individual slams.

It's probably futile to hope that the Next Gen is set to throw up another Feder/Nadal/Djokovic, but if a male equivalent of Kerber/Muguruza/Osaka broke through this year that would be a considerable improvement on the recent past.

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Post by Tenez on Mon Jun 17, 2019 6:34 pm

raiders_of_the_lost_ark wrote:
Tenez wrote:I am more concerned on organisers trying to help Nadal overtake federer than Nadal's real ability to get to 20.

Let's not forget that once again, he was given a dead easy draw and ridiculous conditions to add yet another bloody lucky slam!

This luck has certainly been a huge factor for Nadal's number.

I don't see any real substance in this claim. Fed is by far the most marketable tennis player ever and people in management certainly would want him to have all records with him than Nadal or anyone else.

TDs did have build up conditions to groom this rivalry and in general, have more baseline game. But there is no real substance other than hearsay that he was 'given' a dead easy draw and ridiculous conditions. At RG especially, he has passed all easy/tough draws to win 12 slams.

This year, he was indeed lucky with the weather completely ruining any chances Thiem had. But RG always had this kind of no-day-margins-no-roof stupid planning. It did eventually favoured Nadal, but it wasn't given he would have lost otherwise. He has won when he too was affected by rain delays and schedule getting packed.

Luck has favoured him, but he creates so many chances for himself, especially on clay,  he deserved to be lucky on some of those. It's all about creating enough chances.

That's because you are not a business man. A TD  doesn't care if one player is more marketable than another as long as he can increase audience by creating a special event (here Nadal breaking the slam record). That is why the planet is in such trouble cause businessmen know that if they don;t suck the life out of it, others will do. If/when Nadal get to 19 slams....you will see the draws getting even easier for Nadal ..especially at the USO. I bet whatever you want on this .....should Nadal get to 19 of course.

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Post by raiders_of_the_lost_ark on Tue Jun 18, 2019 8:06 am

Tenez wrote:A TD  doesn't care if one player is more marketable than another as long as he can increase audience by creating a special event (here Nadal breaking the slam record).

Do you think Fed breaking his own slam records adding slams after slams is any smaller event than Nadal topping the list? Fed reaching 20 had thrown all the tennis world into this gaga about his greatness and GOAThood. Scores of articles were written and tribute videos were made all over. I don't see anything close happening when Nadal got to his unprecedented 10th or 11th or even 12th RG. Nothing even remotely close when Djoko got all 4 slams ( something that even Fed couldn't achieve ).

For now, Fed and his success sell way more than Nadal's or Djolo's. All marketing stats show this. Every single one of them. 

If you have any credible proof to the claim that Nadal's success over Fed will be a bigger tennis event which tennis management is not only looking forward to but aiding as well. Else you are alone in your opinion ( nothing wrong with that too).

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Post by naxroy on Tue Jun 18, 2019 2:19 pm

in 1 month we will have a good answer to the slam chase question

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Post by barrystar on Wed Jun 19, 2019 10:54 am

naxroy wrote:in 1 month we will have a good answer to the slam chase question

We'll have an even better answer by 9 September when, as a matter of pure mathematics, Nadal could be anywhere between level with Fed at twenty or four behind, and Djoko could be breathing down Nadal's neck at one behind him, and three behind Fed.

I think Djoko will get one of the two, preferably USO from my perspective.

We'll see, but unless Fed picks up W 2019 I think Fed fans are looking at a longish period of squeaky bum time.

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Post by Tenez on Wed Jun 19, 2019 1:56 pm

barrystar wrote:We'll see, but unless Fed picks up W 2019 I think Fed fans are looking at a longish period of squeaky bum time.

Yes...though I don't think it is going to be that long. 2 more slams is a lot and I believe the youngsters are finally on their way.

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Post by sphairistike on Wed Jun 19, 2019 3:16 pm

Tenez wrote:
barrystar wrote:We'll see, but unless Fed picks up W 2019 I think Fed fans are looking at a longish period of squeaky bum time.

Yes...though I don't think it is going to be that long. 2 more slams is a lot and I believe the youngsters are finally on their way.  
  Laugh  I like your optimism, but for me, it is a lot like all the people that keep on saying Fed will retire this year, one year they will be right, but in the meantime they have been wrong many more years... Haven't you been saying that for the past 2-3 years already? 2020 could be the year they indeed are on their way to winning slams but it also could be the year Nole does a Steffi with the CYGGS (=CYGS+OG)... Which one is more likely? Who knows...

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Post by Tenez on Wed Jun 19, 2019 10:43 pm

I'd be very surprised if Felix, Tsi, Shapo, Sverev and others don't start to add gears to their games.

It has been unlucky that some promising ones like Chung, Rublev and probably Zverev to some extend have had physical problems that stopped their progress.

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Post by naxroy on Wed Jun 19, 2019 11:44 pm

Fed, nole and Rafa are too good

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Post by Tenez on Thu Jun 20, 2019 12:25 pm

naxroy wrote:Fed,  nole and Rafa are too good

I never liked to see Fed mixed in with those 2 gruelling talentless players.

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Post by barrystar on Thu Jun 20, 2019 1:52 pm

Tenez wrote:
naxroy wrote:Fed,  nole and Rafa are too good

I never liked to see Fed mixed in with those 2 gruelling talentless players.

Don't be parodic - the comparison is made between their slam-winning ability and the rest of the field. It's clearly legit.

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Post by naxroy on Thu Jun 20, 2019 2:56 pm

barrystar wrote:
Tenez wrote:
naxroy wrote:Fed,  nole and Rafa are too good

I never liked to see Fed mixed in with those 2 gruelling talentless players.

Don't be parodic - the comparison is made between their slam-winning ability and the rest of the field. It's clearly legit.


3 players, they all play in the same era and they win 20, 18 and 15 slams each over 17 years

winning 53 slams of the last 64

which explains so many frustrated promises of new champions.

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Post by bogbrush on Thu Jun 20, 2019 3:16 pm

Hmm, just a point here chaps.

Hegemony by one or three men doesn't prove cause. They might be extraordinary or the competition might be dismal. There's no logical way of knowing this for sure. The frustrated new champions might be absolutely brilliant but beaten by greats, or they might be limited talent mental midgets allowing three good standard players to clean up.

Only our eyes and our subjective judgement allows a verdict to come in, but since we've all got two of one and a very big one of the other we can fill up endless threads with the debate.

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Post by Tenez on Thu Jun 20, 2019 11:34 pm

barrystar wrote:
Tenez wrote:
naxroy wrote:Fed,  nole and Rafa are too good

I never liked to see Fed mixed in with those 2 gruelling talentless players.

Don't be parodic - the comparison is made between their slam-winning ability and the rest of the field. It's clearly legit.
This is exactly why I don;t like to see Fed being mixed with the other 2. Those abilities are diametrically opposed. sweat v talent.

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Post by summerblues on Fri Jun 21, 2019 3:29 am

Fed barely scrapes through Tsonga. I say let's hope 20 will be enough.

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Post by raiders_of_the_lost_ark on Fri Jun 21, 2019 7:01 am

summerblues wrote:Fed barely scrapes through Tsonga.  I say let's hope 20 will be enough.

Tsonga is a good grass court player, so this was not a surprise. All faster surfaces where serving is a key, the matches will look closer than they are.

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Post by barrystar on Fri Jun 21, 2019 9:08 am

bogbrush wrote:Hmm, just a point here chaps.

Hegemony by one or three men doesn't prove cause. They might be extraordinary or the competition might be dismal. There's no logical way of knowing this for sure. The frustrated new champions might be absolutely brilliant but beaten by greats, or they might be limited talent mental midgets allowing three good standard players to clean up.

Only our eyes and our subjective judgement allows a verdict to come in, but since we've all got two of one and a very big one of the other we can fill up endless threads with the debate.

I defended this quote on the basis of its relative correctness, the big three have scooped up the slams in place of the other challengers - relative to them they are indeed 'too good', or have been.  I was not commenting on what the hegemony proves, merely that it 'is'


Fed,  nole and Rafa are too good

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Post by BEL19VE on Sat Jun 22, 2019 3:15 am

bogbrush wrote:Hmm, just a point here chaps.

Hegemony by one or three men doesn't prove cause. They might be extraordinary or the competition might be dismal. There's no logical way of knowing this for sure.
May I point out, this above line is pretty much word for word what I once said a few years ago. And you were derisory in response, and spent hours in a debate trying to disprove it, using astrophysics analogies and more.
Do you recall this?

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Post by summerblues on Sat Jun 22, 2019 3:25 pm

raiders_of_the_lost_ark wrote:
summerblues wrote:Fed barely scrapes through Tsonga.  I say let's hope 20 will be enough.

Tsonga is a good grass court player, so this was not a surprise. All faster surfaces where serving is a key, the matches will look closer than they are.
Unconvinced.  It is one thing to be forced to tie-breaks, but Fed lost the second set after he was up a break and allowed Tsonga to break twice to take the set.  Then another three setter vs Bautista Agut.  Not impressive.

Don't get me wrong, I am not as pessimistic about Fed's Wimbledon chances as I made it sound here.  I was exaggerating somewhat.  I think he is the first or second favorite at Wimbledon.  But 1st/2nd in a fairly wide field with maybe 20-25% chance to win.  I.e. far more likely not to win than to win.

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Post by naxroy on Sat Jun 22, 2019 4:22 pm

Queens final for Simon who is 34
In the semifinal Feliciano still with chances, he is 37
Federer finalist in Halle, he is almost 38
Nadal winning slams at 1 per year being 33

clearly retirement age is no longer 29-31, but more 34-36

11 players over 30 in top 20


35 players over 30 in te top 100

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Post by noleisthebest on Sat Jun 22, 2019 5:00 pm

naxroy wrote:Queens final for Simon who is 34
In the semifinal Feliciano still with chances, he is 37
Federer finalist in Halle, he is almost 38
Nadal winning slams at 1 per year being 33

clearly retirement age is no longer 29-31, but more 34-36

11 players over 30 in top 20


35 players over 30 in te top 100
Honestly...who cares...had a quick hop over several matches today and they were dead.
Fed was almost a con in that brown outfit spraying FHs like me in my first tenis lesson.

Gimmie Nole and Rafa any day. A bit of passion.


Last edited by noleisthebest on Sat Jun 22, 2019 5:04 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Post by summerblues on Sat Jun 22, 2019 5:04 pm

Nole and Rafa. Your two favorite players, eh?

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Post by noleisthebest on Sat Jun 22, 2019 5:07 pm

summerblues wrote:Nole and Rafa.  Your two favorite players, eh?
Passion, me old friend, passion...the two are still very much alive.
Fed is dead. Not 100%, but one foot in the grave...and we know you can’t play tennis on one leg only!

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Post by summerblues on Sat Jun 22, 2019 5:20 pm

All right. Passion is all good. Fed's game has never quite been about raw passion - at least not on the surface.

I remember many years ago someone on the old BBC forum termed Fed's wins "oddly bloodless". I thought that was a good description of Fed at his pomp. All those wins felt like they just happened, there was no visible blood, sweat or tears.

Anyway. This forum is short on Rafa fans. Good that we now have one more.

PS:. Dead???? Now I really hope he takes Wimbledon.

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Post by noleisthebest on Sat Jun 22, 2019 7:11 pm

I never said Fed was passion-less. He was the king of passion once.

Now he’s half-dead.

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Post by Tenez on Sat Jun 22, 2019 10:23 pm

noleisthebest wrote:I never said Fed was passion-less. He was the king of passion once.

Now he’s half-dead.

I agree he is half dead. Problem is that Djoko and Rafa were never alive to me....just lifeless robots!...and deep down you know it.

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Post by summerblues on Sun Jun 23, 2019 4:41 am

noleisthebest wrote:I never said Fed was passion-less. He was the king of passion once.
I thought you might say something like this.  But I do not see his passion diminishing.  He is almost 38, obviously he is no longer the top dog.  But passion is not just about winning.  He is playing about as well as 38yo can, and I see no sign that he is not giving it his best, just like in the past.  How and why would you say passion is not there?

I can see that maybe you can no longer watch him with the same passion as when he was the top dog.  But that is a different story.

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Post by noleisthebest on Sun Jun 23, 2019 11:38 am

Tenez wrote:
noleisthebest wrote:I never said Fed was passion-less. He was the king of passion once.

Now he’s half-dead.

I agree he is half dead. Problem is that Djoko and Rafa were never alive to me....just lifeless robots!...and deep down you know it.
Deep down I guess you could be half-dead, too.

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Post by noleisthebest on Sun Jun 23, 2019 11:41 am

summerblues wrote:
noleisthebest wrote:I never said Fed was passion-less. He was the king of passion once.
I thought you might say something like this.  But I do not see his passion diminishing.  He is almost 38, obviously he is no longer the top dog.  But passion is not just about winning.  He is playing about as well as 38yo can, and I see no sign that he is not giving it his best, just like in the past.  How and why would you say passion is not there?

I can see that maybe you can no longer watch him with the same passion as when he was the top dog.  But that is a different story.
I’d like to believe this was a troll attempt, but deep down I know it wasn’t.

Read what I said again, and take your stone throwing gloves off before that.

And if you still want to throw a stone, pick up the biggest one you can manage.







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Post by Emancipator on Sun Jun 23, 2019 1:08 pm

NITB you’re basically the typical Djokovic fan. A Serbian. And that’s the only reason. Your ‘passion’ is your jingoism. As long as he wins and brings glory to your nation (and religion) you’re happy and pretty obnoxious. 

I don’t know too much about that part of the world but it seems there are certain disagreeable characteristics that seem to be shared by people of that nation. Too much pride, a desire to seen as superior whilst simultaneously suffering from an inferiority complex, and this awful insidious tribalism.

And the mask always slips very quickly.

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Post by bogbrush on Sun Jun 23, 2019 1:25 pm

The Balkans. Books have been written about that part of the World. I don’t think any of them have been nice.

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