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Fight for #1

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Fight for #1

Post by summerblues on Sun Jun 11, 2017 6:37 pm

Cross-posting this from v2:

Fight for #1 is heating up.  According to the usual site (http://live-tennis.eu/en/forecast-atp-ranking), here are the top point getters when all points through Wimbledon are dropped:

1. Murray - 7390
2. Nadal - 7285
3. Wawrinka - 6130
4. Djokovic - 5715
5. Federer - 4045

Any points gained through Wimbledon will be additive to the above (subject to countability conditions).

With decent showing at RG, Andy will not be overtaken before Wimbledon, but Rafa has a realistic chance to take #1 spot right after Wimbledon - it will most likely come down to who between Andy and Rafa does better on grass.

Stan, at least on paper, also has a chance to reach #1, but he would almost certainly need to win Wimbledon, which is not his friendliest tournament.  The loss today will probably deprive him of a real shot at snatching #1 sometime between Wimbledon and the USO.  Hard to see him ever having as good a chance again.

Djokovic is probably too far back to reclaim #1 at Wimbledon but both he and Federer can get back in the mix if they do well at Wimbledon (which, in practice, most likely means if they win Wimbledon).

It could be interesting summer.   ...or maybe Rafa just sweeps the rest of the season and it will all be much less interesting Cry

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Re: Fight for #1

Post by Veejay on Sun Jun 11, 2017 6:52 pm

the good thing for federer is that he has nothing to defend after wimbledon but it will still take something really special from him to regain the no1 ranking i.e winning at least another major,the WTF and another masters 1000,not even sure if that will be enough right now 
a lot of it will also depend on which tournaments he decides to play post wimbledon
he isnt chasing the ranking so i wouldnt be surprised if he only played cincinatti as a warm up for the u.s open
and probably wont kill himself after the u.s open most likely taking another break before the WTF

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Re: Fight for #1

Post by Tenez on Mon Jun 12, 2017 10:40 am

Fed has nothing to defend but he has a lot to catch up. He will need a few more miracles like AO and Miami to have a chance.

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Re: Fight for #1

Post by Emancipator on Mon Jun 12, 2017 4:50 pm

It looks almost certain that Nadal will take number 1 at some point this year. However, whatever the rankings say, Federer has been the best player this year so far.

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Re: Fight for #1

Post by DECIMA on Mon Jun 12, 2017 5:42 pm

Emancipator wrote:It looks almost certain that Nadal will take number 1 at some point this year.
Don't get too ahead of yourself. He's very injury prone and his level of play could dip. Fed hurt his chances by skipping clay season but still has a shot, while some others could surprise us- perhaps Murray or Djokovic resurgence or someone like Kyrgios.

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Re: Fight for #1

Post by Emancipator on Mon Jun 12, 2017 7:29 pm

Kyrgios is 6000 points behind Nadal in the YTD rankings - I think we can safely rule him out of number 1.

Rafa is almost 3000 points ahead of Roger and more than 5000 points ahead Murray and Djokovic. Even if Rafa were to average quarters and semis for the rest of the year that'll probably give him YE number 1. 

The only way he doesn't get it is if he has a season ending injury or Federer sweeps most of the remaining big tournaments - highly unlikely as he's likely to play a truncated schedule and thus miss some of the masters tourneys.

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Re: Fight for #1

Post by Veejay on Mon Jun 12, 2017 8:29 pm

Emancipator wrote:It looks almost certain that Nadal will take number 1 at some point this year. However, whatever the rankings say, Federer has been the best player this year so far.
if he does well at wimbledon he most certainly can ( if those numbers correct) he could be world no1 after wimbledon cause he didnt play last year due to the wrist injury 
he has up to  2000 points clear to gain and nothing to defend for wimbledon alone

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Re: Fight for #1

Post by ... on Mon Jun 12, 2017 8:40 pm

I think number one is irrelevant for Nadal and anyone else except Federer atm.

That is the exciting one.

To regain that pedestal once more at 36.

For Nadal, the thing would be to win WTF. Be best among the best.

Murray has achieved everything he could.

For Nole, the challenge is to overtake Nadal in slams.

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Re: Fight for #1

Post by Veejay on Mon Jun 12, 2017 9:13 pm

i dont think that the no1 ranking would be irrelevant to any player who happens to be just 106 points away from taking it 
wouldnt it also be the 3rd or 4th time he becomes the world no1?
thats a pretty exclusive club to be part of

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Re: Fight for #1

Post by Emancipator on Mon Jun 12, 2017 10:25 pm

Veejay wrote:
Emancipator wrote:It looks almost certain that Nadal will take number 1 at some point this year. However, whatever the rankings say, Federer has been the best player this year so far.
if he does well at wimbledon he most certainly can ( if those numbers correct) he could be world no1 after wimbledon cause he didnt play last year due to the wrist injury 
he has up to  2000 points clear to gain and nothing to defend for wimbledon alone

Yes, I don't know the current points standings but I'd imagine if Murray were to fail to defend his W title that that in itself would put Rafa at number one.

It's a shame in a way that Roger has played such a light schedule (although I understand why and do agree with the decision) because he clearly the best player in the world outside of clay and should really be leading the race.

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Re: Fight for #1

Post by DECIMA on Mon Jun 12, 2017 10:54 pm

Emancipator wrote:
Veejay wrote:
Emancipator wrote:It looks almost certain that Nadal will take number 1 at some point this year. However, whatever the rankings say, Federer has been the best player this year so far.
if he does well at wimbledon he most certainly can ( if those numbers correct) he could be world no1 after wimbledon cause he didnt play last year due to the wrist injury 
he has up to  2000 points clear to gain and nothing to defend for wimbledon alone

Yes, I don't know the current points standings but I'd imagine if Murray were to fail to defend his W title that that in itself would put Rafa at number one.

It's a shame in a way that Roger has played such a light schedule (although I understand why and do agree with the decision) because he clearly the best player in the world outside of clay and should really be leading the race.
Yeah that's fair I guess, but we have to wait and see what happens in rest of 2017. Federer has won 3 tournaments so far this year, and was playing great in those events, but before we can write him in as 'true' world number 1 he needs to show great form for the rest of the season, and win some more big titles (slams or masters).
If Nadal gets to number 1 but doesn't win another title this year, then for me he is not 'true' number 1- competition so far has not been very strong.

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Re: Fight for #1

Post by summerblues on Tue Jun 13, 2017 2:11 am

Emancipator wrote:It's a shame in a way that Roger has played such a light schedule (although I understand why and do agree with the decision) because he clearly the best player in the world outside of clay and should really be leading the race.
Federer at 36 could not play week after week and maintain the form he was in.  It is not even quite clear he would still have been #1 in the Race had he played clay court season (though likely he would have), but more importantly he would have run out of gas way too early.  Now he is rested and - fingers crossed - can be in top form from here through the USO.  If he wins one of those two, it will be better than getting to #1 but failing to bag a slam title.

#1 is still more-or-less just a "nice to have" kind of thing.  Slams (and weeks at #1) are the hard currency in career assessment.  Being oldest ever #1 is nice but still good mostly for trivia.

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Re: Fight for #1

Post by Veejay on Tue Jun 13, 2017 3:24 pm

federer is saying that he wont be taking any more breaks this season and predicts an "epic" second half of this season
could this be a sign that he may have changed his mind and decided to chase the no1 ranking? 

http://www.atpworldtour.com/en/news/federer-says-no-more-breaks-at-stuttgart-2017

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Re: Fight for #1

Post by bogbrush on Wed Jun 14, 2017 2:40 pm

To get #1 without playing clay would be unbelievable. To do that same thing at 36 would be impossible, so it won't happen unless Nadal becomes injured for a lengthy period.

Nadal will be #1 easily and could put a long stretch on it. The only question is fitness.

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Re: Fight for #1

Post by Veejay on Wed Jun 14, 2017 3:00 pm

bogbrush wrote:To get #1 without playing clay would be unbelievable. To do that same thing at 36 would be impossible, so it won't happen unless Nadal becomes injured for a lengthy period.

Nadal will be #1 easily and could put a long stretch on it. The only question is fitness.
if federer plays enough tournaments then he could be hot on his heels 
federer has absolutely nothing to defend after wimbledon

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Re: Fight for #1

Post by bogbrush on Sun Jun 25, 2017 9:15 pm

Winning Halle leaves Federer 2370 behind Rafa which having skipped the entire clay programme is amazing. Both are way clear of Djokovic & Murray.

It's starting to look like time is runnng out for anyone to prevent Nadal or Federer being the next no 1 - almost certainly Nadal though this last week with him skipping Queens & Federer winning Halle has introduced a touch of doubt.

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Re: Fight for #1

Post by Tenez on Sun Jun 25, 2017 9:24 pm

What is amazing is how Nadal managed to win almost everything on clay and get such a lead. He is in a very good position to end the year at number 1.

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Re: Fight for #1

Post by Jahu Yesterday at 7:49 am

So far 2017, Fed/Nadal 4 tournament each, Zverev/Tsonga 3 each.

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