Fight for #1

Cross-posting this from v2:

Fight for #1 is heating up.  According to the usual site (http://live-tennis.eu/en/forecast-atp-ranking), here are the top point getters when all points through Wimbledon are dropped:

1. Murray - 7390
2. Nadal - 7285
3. Wawrinka - 6130
4. Djokovic - 5715
5. Federer - 4045

Any points gained through Wimbledon will be additive to the above (subject to countability conditions).

With decent showing at RG, Andy will not be overtaken before Wimbledon, but Rafa has a realistic chance to take #1 spot right after Wimbledon - it will most likely come down to who between Andy and Rafa does better on grass.

Stan, at least on paper, also has a chance to reach #1, but he would almost certainly need to win Wimbledon, which is not his friendliest tournament.  The loss today will probably deprive him of a real shot at snatching #1 sometime between Wimbledon and the USO.  Hard to see him ever having as good a chance again.

Djokovic is probably too far back to reclaim #1 at Wimbledon but both he and Federer can get back in the mix if they do well at Wimbledon (which, in practice, most likely means if they win Wimbledon).

It could be interesting summer.   ...or maybe Rafa just sweeps the rest of the season and it will all be much less interesting

the good thing for federer is that he has nothing to defend after wimbledon but it will still take something really special from him to regain the no1 ranking i.e winning at least another major,the WTF and another masters 1000,not even sure if that will be enough right now 
a lot of it will also depend on which tournaments he decides to play post wimbledon
he isnt chasing the ranking so i wouldnt be surprised if he only played cincinatti as a warm up for the u.s open
and probably wont kill himself after the u.s open most likely taking another break before the WTF

Fed has nothing to defend but he has a lot to catch up. He will need a few more miracles like AO and Miami to have a chance.

It looks almost certain that Nadal will take number 1 at some point this year. However, whatever the rankings say, Federer has been the best player this year so far.

Emancipator wrote:It looks almost certain that Nadal will take number 1 at some point this year.

Don't get too ahead of yourself. He's very injury prone and his level of play could dip. Fed hurt his chances by skipping clay season but still has a shot, while some others could surprise us- perhaps Murray or Djokovic resurgence or someone like Kyrgios.

Kyrgios is 6000 points behind Nadal in the YTD rankings - I think we can safely rule him out of number 1.

Rafa is almost 3000 points ahead of Roger and more than 5000 points ahead Murray and Djokovic. Even if Rafa were to average quarters and semis for the rest of the year that'll probably give him YE number 1. 

The only way he doesn't get it is if he has a season ending injury or Federer sweeps most of the remaining big tournaments - highly unlikely as he's likely to play a truncated schedule and thus miss some of the masters tourneys.

Emancipator wrote:It looks almost certain that Nadal will take number 1 at some point this year. However, whatever the rankings say, Federer has been the best player this year so far.

if he does well at wimbledon he most certainly can ( if those numbers correct) he could be world no1 after wimbledon cause he didnt play last year due to the wrist injury 
he has up to  2000 points clear to gain and nothing to defend for wimbledon alone

I think number one is irrelevant for Nadal and anyone else except Federer atm.

That is the exciting one.

To regain that pedestal once more at 36.

For Nadal, the thing would be to win WTF. Be best among the best.

Murray has achieved everything he could.

For Nole, the challenge is to overtake Nadal in slams.

i dont think that the no1 ranking would be irrelevant to any player who happens to be just 106 points away from taking it 
wouldnt it also be the 3rd or 4th time he becomes the world no1?
thats a pretty exclusive club to be part of

Veejay wrote:

Emancipator wrote:It looks almost certain that Nadal will take number 1 at some point this year. However, whatever the rankings say, Federer has been the best player this year so far.

if he does well at wimbledon he most certainly can ( if those numbers correct) he could be world no1 after wimbledon cause he didnt play last year due to the wrist injury 
he has up to  2000 points clear to gain and nothing to defend for wimbledon alone

Yes, I don't know the current points standings but I'd imagine if Murray were to fail to defend his W title that that in itself would put Rafa at number one.

It's a shame in a way that Roger has played such a light schedule (although I understand why and do agree with the decision) because he clearly the best player in the world outside of clay and should really be leading the race.

Emancipator wrote:

Veejay wrote:

Emancipator wrote:It looks almost certain that Nadal will take number 1 at some point this year. However, whatever the rankings say, Federer has been the best player this year so far.

if he does well at wimbledon he most certainly can ( if those numbers correct) he could be world no1 after wimbledon cause he didnt play last year due to the wrist injury 
he has up to  2000 points clear to gain and nothing to defend for wimbledon alone

Yes, I don't know the current points standings but I'd imagine if Murray were to fail to defend his W title that that in itself would put Rafa at number one.

It's a shame in a way that Roger has played such a light schedule (although I understand why and do agree with the decision) because he clearly the best player in the world outside of clay and should really be leading the race.

Yeah that's fair I guess, but we have to wait and see what happens in rest of 2017. Federer has won 3 tournaments so far this year, and was playing great in those events, but before we can write him in as 'true' world number 1 he needs to show great form for the rest of the season, and win some more big titles (slams or masters).
If Nadal gets to number 1 but doesn't win another title this year, then for me he is not 'true' number 1- competition so far has not been very strong.

Emancipator wrote:It's a shame in a way that Roger has played such a light schedule (although I understand why and do agree with the decision) because he clearly the best player in the world outside of clay and should really be leading the race.

Federer at 36 could not play week after week and maintain the form he was in.  It is not even quite clear he would still have been #1 in the Race had he played clay court season (though likely he would have), but more importantly he would have run out of gas way too early.  Now he is rested and - fingers crossed - can be in top form from here through the USO.  If he wins one of those two, it will be better than getting to #1 but failing to bag a slam title.

#1 is still more-or-less just a "nice to have" kind of thing.  Slams (and weeks at #1) are the hard currency in career assessment.  Being oldest ever #1 is nice but still good mostly for trivia.

federer is saying that he wont be taking any more breaks this season and predicts an "epic" second half of this season
could this be a sign that he may have changed his mind and decided to chase the no1 ranking? 

http://www.atpworldtour.com/en/news/federer-says-no-more-breaks-at-stuttgart-2017

To get #1 without playing clay would be unbelievable. To do that same thing at 36 would be impossible, so it won't happen unless Nadal becomes injured for a lengthy period.

Nadal will be #1 easily and could put a long stretch on it. The only question is fitness.

bogbrush wrote:To get #1 without playing clay would be unbelievable. To do that same thing at 36 would be impossible, so it won't happen unless Nadal becomes injured for a lengthy period.

Nadal will be #1 easily and could put a long stretch on it. The only question is fitness.

if federer plays enough tournaments then he could be hot on his heels 
federer has absolutely nothing to defend after wimbledon

Winning Halle leaves Federer 2370 behind Rafa which having skipped the entire clay programme is amazing. Both are way clear of Djokovic & Murray.

It's starting to look like time is runnng out for anyone to prevent Nadal or Federer being the next no 1 - almost certainly Nadal though this last week with him skipping Queens & Federer winning Halle has introduced a touch of doubt.

What is amazing is how Nadal managed to win almost everything on clay and get such a lead. He is in a very good position to end the year at number 1.

So far 2017, Fed/Nadal 4 tournament each, Zverev/Tsonga 3 each.

Nadal is almost guaranteed to be back at number 1 after Wimby. He just needs to go one more round than Murray which he should.

Probably, only 105 points Nadal has less than Andy.

Tenez wrote:Nadal is almost guaranteed to be back at number 1 after Wimby. He just needs to go one more round than Murray which he should.

Seriously, what are you talking about?

DECIMA wrote:

Tenez wrote:Nadal is almost guaranteed to be back at number 1 after Wimby. He just needs to go one more round than Murray which he should.

Seriously, what are you talking about?

yeah....got that wrong.....but frankly who had predicted that Nadal woul d lose to Muller?

1 Rafael Nadal 31.1 ESP1 7095 - +180 - Lost in Wimbledon R16 - -
World Tour Finals Qualification Cut 5790
2 Roger Federer 35.9 SUI2 4905 - +360 Wimbledon QF - 5265 6545
3 Dominic Thiem 23.8 AUT1 3345 - +180 - Lost in Wimbledon R16 - -
4 Stan Wawrinka 32.2 SUI1 3150 - +10 - Lost in Wimbledon R128 - -
5 Alexander Zverev 20.2 GER1 2710 - +180 - Lost in Wimbledon R16 - -
6 Novak Djokovic 30.1 SRB1 2405 - +180 Wimbledon R16 - 2585 4225
7 Andy Murray 30.1 GBR1 2290 - +360 Wimbledon QF - 2650 3930
8 Marin Čilić 28.7 CRO1 2065 +3 +360 Wimbledon QF - 2425 3705

Nadal is still way ahead in the race but franly the race for year end number 1 is between fed and Nadal now. Djoko needs to win Wimbledon to have a chance....not impossible but if he does not....then...it has to be between Nadal and federer.

I was thinking this earlier. Federer is three wins away from making the race for y/e open into a two-way fight between him & Nadal, and it'd be hard to split them.

Still the three wins though.....

Chances (my view)

favourite:  Nadal. Narrowly.  Or perhaps joint with Djokovic.  It's hard to say.  Either of these have a good run on hard court, and they'll be YE n1.

Federer: 2nd favourite for me, narrowly.  if he wins Wimbledon, he will be in a much stronger position.

Murray:  Although he's had a crap year, and I still think he'll win sod all slam wise, I believe he can end the year as N1.  But he's going to have to get some results and what's really not in his favour are the HEAP of points he is defending.

Wawrinka:  Nah.

If Federer were to get to #1 having passed on the entire clay season I think that would be taking the piss out of the rest.

Haha it would.  Still, it also poses the same questions about how weak the current tour is that 30+ year olds are the ones in contention for YEN1....  It's piss poor tbh.

Murray haa no chance for number 1 this year. I don t think he will make the top 4.

As things are, for me race for number one will be between Fed and Nole.

Somehow I don't see Nadal able to dominqte this field on hard courts.

There are too many good players in every draw now.

I wonder if he'll want to give it one more go for winning WTF.
That is a gaping hole in his CV for someone of his ambition and apetite.

I think Fed is only in contention if he wins Wimbledon.  He's currently 4905 points...  

But 6545 should he win.

http://live-tennis.eu/en/atp-live-ranking

... wrote:As things are, for me race for number one will be between Fed and Nole.

Somehow I don't see Nadal able to dominqte this field on hard courts.

There are too many good players in every draw now.

I wonder if he'll want to give it one more go for winning WTF.
That is a gaping hole in his CV for someone of his ambition and apetite.

If it was not for Fed, Nadal could have won teh AO, IW and Miami.

He is back to being a danger everywhere, including dry grass.

Nope. Not grass, Tenez. We've already put that one to bed.

The uneven bounce on grass is a bit of a leveller.

With the truer bounce on HCs I have no doubt Federer will deal with Nadal relatively easily this year.

Daniel wrote:Nope. Not grass, Tenez. We've already put that one to bed.

I maintain that Nadal woudl probably not have lost v Muller the previous week, when the conds were slower. The conds were perfect for him then. Last week he could afford to take the ball early and even dictate...that's how slow it was. Yesterday, the court behaved differently and nadal was standing far back.

As things are, it looks like week two is going to favour big servers.

So Murray, Federer, Djokovic are all going to have hard time tomorrow.

I am curious to see how Muller fares vs Cilic.

He should try to make the most of this opportunity, though Cilic is a beast on Wimbledon grass.

Tenez wrote:

Daniel wrote:Nope. Not grass, Tenez. We've already put that one to bed.

I maintain that Nadal woudl probably not have lost v Muller the previous week, when the conds were slower. The conds were perfect for him then. Last week he could afford to take the ball early and even dictate...that's how slow it was. Yesterday, the court behaved differently and nadal was standing far back.

That still doesn't explain away the four years before that.  What exactly has Nadal done on grass in the last 5 years? That's a trend.

Daniel wrote:

Tenez wrote:

Daniel wrote:Nope. Not grass, Tenez. We've already put that one to bed.

I maintain that Nadal woudl probably not have lost v Muller the previous week, when the conds were slower. The conds were perfect for him then. Last week he could afford to take the ball early and even dictate...that's how slow it was. Yesterday, the court behaved differently and nadal was standing far back.

That still doesn't explain away the four years before that.  What exactly has Nadal done on grass in the last 5 years? That's a trend.

So how would you explain him winning twice here? If anything losing early in the last 4 years confirms that as soon as teh conds are a bit fast he loses. Nadal said it himself the first week is the toughest cause it fast....problem is this year they really dried the grass way too early. I guess hot conds made the first week play like a second.

Remember even when Nadal won it twice, beating teh best like Murray, Federer, Soderling, Berdych....he did struggle the first week versus Haase, Petzschner, etc....Struggling in the first week....never meant he could not do well when teh grass dried up.

You keep bringing up the times he won... which was YEARS AGO.  Why do you keep doing it?

You guys are worse than me & Vee for not letting go.

In fairness, it is actually a tennis topic. That probably matters.....

Daniel wrote:You keep bringing up the times he won... which was YEARS AGO.  Why do you keep doing it?

That's rich from you. You are the one referring to 4 years ago.....and predicting future results on old results.

bogbrush wrote:You guys are worse than me & Vee for not letting go.

In fairness, it is actually a tennis topic. That probably matters.....

We have not seen Vee since you arguments with him.

Tenez wrote:

Daniel wrote:You keep bringing up the times he won... which was YEARS AGO.  Why do you keep doing it?

That's rich from you. You are the one referring to 4 years ago.....and predicting future results on old results.

I am talking about the last 5 years of known history.  What is hard to understand here? Nadal has lost at Wimbledon before QF at least 5 years on the bounce... and yet you still persist with this fantasy that he's always one of the favourites.  Stop.    At this rate, Nadal will be 55 and ranked 19088 and you'll still be here saying "Nadal has a great chance, coz these courts be slooooow! *"


*unless he loses and then it's cause they changed the conditions overnight.


The bookies must be laughing their arses off at the moment... because so many gullible fools backed Nadal. Everyone bar 3 people at my tennis club (me and my double's partner two of them) had Nadal as favourite.  Come on, people... use your brains.  Just because he wins FO with a relatively easy draw does not mean he is going to win on grass going against a 4 year REALLY BAD trend.

Tenez wrote:

bogbrush wrote:You guys are worse than me & Vee for not letting go.

In fairness, it is actually a tennis topic. That probably matters.....

We have not seen Vee since you arguments with him.

Sorry. It did get a bit personal. Hopefully he'll be back soon, he can only have a problem with me & not with the rest of you.

I got to admit Daniel that you scored one there. I watched the first set against Khachanov and after seeing how much trouble he had caused Federer at Halle I drew some conclusions.

To throw some to Tenez, I think Nadal suffered from the nerves the commentators claim he never has.

Yeah, Daniel, I am also not sure why you keep persisting through this argument.  Rafa lost, you were vindicated, be happy about it and move on to other topics.  Why trying to force Tenez to admit he was wrong?  He will never do it - he is like Monty Python's Black Knigtht in this regard.  Why not leave it and find some new topic to argue about?

I mean, for all I care, go ahead and continue, but it does get boring after a while.

It is boring - but I'm not going to keep ignoring nonsense statements like Nadal is a contender on grass - right after yet another big loss early on grass. It's bad enough listening to Castle rattle on and on about how Nadal losing will be a shock to end all shocks - that history says Nadal wins every time in a fifth... and all the other gushing yarn.  I can't wait for Nadal to be gone, frankly.  99% of all arguments online involve him!

Ok, carry on then

But I'm done.   

bogbrush wrote:

Tenez wrote:

bogbrush wrote:You guys are worse than me & Vee for not letting go.

In fairness, it is actually a tennis topic. That probably matters.....

We have not seen Vee since you arguments with him.

Sorry. It did get a bit personal. Hopefully he'll be back soon, he can only have a problem with me & not with the rest of you.

I am sure he'll be back...I have had some tough one with him too but we can get along. We just need Trump to pick his nose and Vee is back in a flash.

summerblues wrote:Yeah, Daniel, I am also not sure why you keep persisting through this argument.  Rafa lost, you were vindicated, be happy about it and move on to other topics.  Why trying to force Tenez to admit he was wrong?  He will never do it - he is like Monty Python's Black Knigtht in this regard.  Why not leave it and find some new topic to argue about?

I mean, for all I care, go ahead and continue, but it does get boring after a while.

Oh oh..that's so funny from you SB!
To start with Daniel is like a broken clock. it still gives the right time twice a day. He has been predicting Nadal's loss every match almost so sure eventually he would get it right but it is not like Muller won it straight and I am still convinced teh conds taht Monday were very different than first week. BTW, I don;t even believe Daniel got that right. I think he was kind of joking when he said that Muller would surprise us on Monday. I dd not read anything serious about it from Daniel (though happy to be proven wrong there).

And what about you ever admitting that tennis players don't peak at 26 or 27? I have been rubbing your nose at every occasion but the humble cake is to hard to swallow.

When I am wrong I easily say but I must admit I am rarely wrong when it comes to observing the game.