How And When Is Nadal Going To Retire?
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How And When Is Nadal Going To Retire?
Dead season in full swing, and as I said in the Off-Season thread, I am passing the time and soothing withdrawal symptoms by watching some Youtube clips.
So far, it's been mainly the old times: I have really enjoyed watching players show their tennis skill without being predominatly dictated or limited by how long they can last physically.
Two matches stood out: Borg's and McEnroe's first Wimbledon titles.
When Borg won his first Wimbledon, he beat Nastase, who had just lost his second Wimbledon final. After the last point was played, Nasty, bigger than life, instead of "just" shaking hands, jumps over the net and gives young Bjorn a hug:
A few years later history repeats, but it's McEnroe who wins this time beating Borg, the 5 time Wimbledon champion.
This time, there was no hug for the young champion from his more experienced fellow-player as well as idol.
Instead, Borg retires from tennis (the later comeback really doesn't count, does it?)
So, that all got me thinking...How and when is Nadal going to retire?
Will it be when Djokovic beats him in Roland Garros final?
Will it need to be a straight sets win, or will any result do?
Or will he be dragged off the courts "kicking and screaming against the fading light" like Jimmy Connors...
So far, it's been mainly the old times: I have really enjoyed watching players show their tennis skill without being predominatly dictated or limited by how long they can last physically.
Two matches stood out: Borg's and McEnroe's first Wimbledon titles.
When Borg won his first Wimbledon, he beat Nastase, who had just lost his second Wimbledon final. After the last point was played, Nasty, bigger than life, instead of "just" shaking hands, jumps over the net and gives young Bjorn a hug:
A few years later history repeats, but it's McEnroe who wins this time beating Borg, the 5 time Wimbledon champion.
This time, there was no hug for the young champion from his more experienced fellow-player as well as idol.
Instead, Borg retires from tennis (the later comeback really doesn't count, does it?)
So, that all got me thinking...How and when is Nadal going to retire?
Will it be when Djokovic beats him in Roland Garros final?
Will it need to be a straight sets win, or will any result do?
Or will he be dragged off the courts "kicking and screaming against the fading light" like Jimmy Connors...
noleisthebest- Posts : 27907
Join date : 2012-06-18
Re: How And When Is Nadal Going To Retire?
The money pressure nowadays will have them retire when the sponsors will be have bigger fishes to fry.
In other words It's not that much Nadal's say...unless he happens to be really injured.
In other words It's not that much Nadal's say...unless he happens to be really injured.
Tenez- Posts : 21050
Join date : 2012-06-18
Re: How And When Is Nadal Going To Retire?
That's funny, because there was a lot less money in tennis in Borg's days, yet, money never dictated/influenced his retirement (only the un-retirement).
I think Nadal so hates losing, he will retire or become "seriously injured" as soon as he gets thrashed in RG.
Surely, even the "doctors" must have their limit in what they can do...
On the other hand, I even thought he may delay his retirement due to test results being revealed after his eventual retirement, but now after seeing him almost immortalised and sanctified as the best ever Spanish athlete in their history, I think he's pretty safe...those Spaniards have some serious connections in the background.
I think Nadal so hates losing, he will retire or become "seriously injured" as soon as he gets thrashed in RG.
Surely, even the "doctors" must have their limit in what they can do...
On the other hand, I even thought he may delay his retirement due to test results being revealed after his eventual retirement, but now after seeing him almost immortalised and sanctified as the best ever Spanish athlete in their history, I think he's pretty safe...those Spaniards have some serious connections in the background.
noleisthebest- Posts : 27907
Join date : 2012-06-18
Re: How And When Is Nadal Going To Retire?
There was less money but it felt much more for those players. They never thought they could have made so much cause they were the first professional players to make that much and there had much more than originally expected. It was also the time when they thought that they could turn everything into gold. They have learnt since then that money comes and goes and one has never enough of it.
before they were artist or athletes loving their job and money was the added bonus. Now they are professionals. If losing was more lucrative than winning, they'd lose!
Federer might belong to the old generation in that respect. His games says it all.
before they were artist or athletes loving their job and money was the added bonus. Now they are professionals. If losing was more lucrative than winning, they'd lose!
Federer might belong to the old generation in that respect. His games says it all.
Tenez- Posts : 21050
Join date : 2012-06-18
Re: How And When Is Nadal Going To Retire?
Yes, and that's why nobody who truly loves tennis wants him to retire. He is big enough to be above the circus.Tenez wrote:There was less money but it felt much more for those players. They never thought they could have made so much cause they were the first professional players to make that much and there had much more than originally expected. It was also the time when they thought that they could turn everything into gold. They have learnt since then that money comes and goes and one has never enough of it.
before they were artist or athletes loving their job and money was the added bonus. Now they are professionals. If losing was more lucrative than winning, they'd lose!
Federer might belong to the old generation in that respect. His games says it all.
noleisthebest- Posts : 27907
Join date : 2012-06-18
Re: How And When Is Nadal Going To Retire?
Howevermuch I lover RG 2011 Nole-Fed SF, I can't help thinking, that that was such a huge match for Nadal.
Had Fed not beaten Nole, I am positive Nole will have trounced Nadal in the final and then, who knows....
Had Fed not beaten Nole, I am positive Nole will have trounced Nadal in the final and then, who knows....
noleisthebest- Posts : 27907
Join date : 2012-06-18
Re: How And When Is Nadal Going To Retire?
Yeah, that FO semi was a good match.
Pity Federer wasted both of Nadal's championship points in his semi of the USO 2011.
Pity Federer wasted both of Nadal's championship points in his semi of the USO 2011.
Last edited by Julia Santamaria on Mon Dec 02, 2013 9:50 pm; edited 1 time in total
N2D2L- Posts : 5813
Join date : 2013-05-03
Re: How And When Is Nadal Going To Retire?
It's good to lose once in a while though (as Nadal did- comfortably and consecutively to Djokovic in 2011); as although it makes your stats worse maybe it could motivate and help you improve your game in the long run.
N2D2L- Posts : 5813
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Re: How And When Is Nadal Going To Retire?
Yes I was surprised how to how Djoko dropped form after 2011. Usually you improve at that age but Djoko's fitness clearly dropped in 2012.
Tenez- Posts : 21050
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Re: How And When Is Nadal Going To Retire?
Yeah, can't remember any matches in 2012 where Djokovic showed fitness at all.Tenez wrote:Yes I was surprised how to how Djoko dropped form after 2011. Usually you improve at that age but Djoko's fitness clearly dropped in 2012.
N2D2L- Posts : 5813
Join date : 2013-05-03
Re: How And When Is Nadal Going To Retire?
Nadal will retire as soon as he is losing all the time. If he was Federer right now, he'd be gone. He has such a low attitude that it's enivitable he won't want to stick around playing for the love of playing. He is now entering the decline years. 2 years from now he will be finished as a competing player. The second he starts to loe the ability to run down balls, he is doomed. He will retire in 2016.
Daniel- Posts : 3645
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Re: How And When Is Nadal Going To Retire?
^Possible, very possible.
N2D2L- Posts : 5813
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Re: How And When Is Nadal Going To Retire?
And that's not sarcastic, I am being serious.
I don't think he's going to win a slam again I'm afraid; and will not hang around for too long.
I don't think he's going to win a slam again I'm afraid; and will not hang around for too long.
N2D2L- Posts : 5813
Join date : 2013-05-03
Re: How And When Is Nadal Going To Retire?
I noticed that, too.Tenez wrote:Yes I was surprised how to how Djoko dropped form after 2011. Usually you improve at that age but Djoko's fitness clearly dropped in 2012.
What's your explanation for it?
noleisthebest- Posts : 27907
Join date : 2012-06-18
Re: How And When Is Nadal Going To Retire?
Hit the wall in aus 2012... never again!
luvsports!- Posts : 4718
Join date : 2012-09-28
Re: How And When Is Nadal Going To Retire?
Yes, I felt at the time that this match may have broken some of Djoko's spirit, sadly, despite winning it. However I doubt it can explain some of his clay losses to nadal in best of 3s a few months later.
Now and again he still throws the long rallies versus Nadal to lower Nadal's energy a bit.
Now and again he still throws the long rallies versus Nadal to lower Nadal's energy a bit.
Tenez- Posts : 21050
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Re: How And When Is Nadal Going To Retire?
For me what was interesting to see, was comparing the two rome matches in '11 and '12.
Nadal did make some changes but ultimately, imo, it came down to djoko's sub par performance.
Nadal had recently thumped djoko in MC but this was when nole looked to have regained some of that conquering swagger.
Here was a clear change in tactics from nole. He simply tried to end the point earlier than he did before.
Frequently in commentary the tennistv lot said how djoko was going toe-to-toe in the long rallies and often coming out on top. Out Nadaling Nadal!
This time DJoko's error's shot up and his patience dropped.
Over BO3, fitness wise it wasn't an issue, but mentality wise it deffo was.
Nadal did make some changes but ultimately, imo, it came down to djoko's sub par performance.
Nadal had recently thumped djoko in MC but this was when nole looked to have regained some of that conquering swagger.
Here was a clear change in tactics from nole. He simply tried to end the point earlier than he did before.
Frequently in commentary the tennistv lot said how djoko was going toe-to-toe in the long rallies and often coming out on top. Out Nadaling Nadal!
This time DJoko's error's shot up and his patience dropped.
Over BO3, fitness wise it wasn't an issue, but mentality wise it deffo was.
luvsports!- Posts : 4718
Join date : 2012-09-28
Re: How And When Is Nadal Going To Retire?
But how can you say so? How do you know it was in the head more than in the leg. Do you think if he could have outrun Nadal with lungs to spare he would still have tried to shorten rallies?luvsports! wrote: He simply tried to end the point earlier than he did before.
.....
Over BO3, fitness wise it wasn't an issue, but mentality wise it deffo was.
Tenez- Posts : 21050
Join date : 2012-06-18
Re: How And When Is Nadal Going To Retire?
Because he went from outlasting nadal with less recovery time at Aus (11 hours of tennis in 2 days or so) to being more aggressive and taking more risks.
There is a huge difference between aus and Rome '12, but i don't think he could have completely gone backwards that far fitness wise.
There is a huge difference between aus and Rome '12, but i don't think he could have completely gone backwards that far fitness wise.
luvsports!- Posts : 4718
Join date : 2012-09-28
Re: How And When Is Nadal Going To Retire?
For me, there has been a noticable difference in Nole's fitness after 2011, and I'd put AO 2012 in that same slot.
I would go so far to say that there has also been a drop in 2013.
Now here is where my lack of knowledge on how doping works starts to show:
has Nole been the same in 2012 & 2013 or has Nadal gone up in his "fitness"?
The most obvious match was USO final where Nadal's physical superiority was extreme.
Now, I still think that Nole because of his more energy efficient and aggressive baseline game can beat Nadal no problem if he is serving well and is focused and composed, but I don't think he is able to go toe to toe with him physically like in 2011/AO12 any more. An occasional long rally yes, but not the whole match.
Nadal knows it which is why Toni had the guts to announce "THEY will go for AO 2014" and equal Laver's record.
There is no other explanation for it.
Nole will have to be swift and win in 3 or 4 sets, and umpiring and keeping 25 sec rule will be crucial.
The only hope is that the Aussies will maybe want to keep their Rod in the history books...or am I being a bit naive here...
I would go so far to say that there has also been a drop in 2013.
Now here is where my lack of knowledge on how doping works starts to show:
has Nole been the same in 2012 & 2013 or has Nadal gone up in his "fitness"?
The most obvious match was USO final where Nadal's physical superiority was extreme.
Now, I still think that Nole because of his more energy efficient and aggressive baseline game can beat Nadal no problem if he is serving well and is focused and composed, but I don't think he is able to go toe to toe with him physically like in 2011/AO12 any more. An occasional long rally yes, but not the whole match.
Nadal knows it which is why Toni had the guts to announce "THEY will go for AO 2014" and equal Laver's record.
There is no other explanation for it.
Nole will have to be swift and win in 3 or 4 sets, and umpiring and keeping 25 sec rule will be crucial.
The only hope is that the Aussies will maybe want to keep their Rod in the history books...or am I being a bit naive here...
noleisthebest- Posts : 27907
Join date : 2012-06-18
Re: How And When Is Nadal Going To Retire?
Another thought on Nadal's retirement:
an awful lot will depend on whether Nole tops him in 2014 like he did in 2011.
Nadal has clealy set his mind on beating Fed's slam record.
Right now, I can only see Nole being able to beat him in slams (Wimbledon is a free for all, of course )
All this provided nothing changes with WADA, i.e. Nadal remains untouchable.
an awful lot will depend on whether Nole tops him in 2014 like he did in 2011.
Nadal has clealy set his mind on beating Fed's slam record.
Right now, I can only see Nole being able to beat him in slams (Wimbledon is a free for all, of course )
All this provided nothing changes with WADA, i.e. Nadal remains untouchable.
noleisthebest- Posts : 27907
Join date : 2012-06-18
Re: How And When Is Nadal Going To Retire?
But he took more risk because he knew he could not last and that to me has nothing to do with mental strength. Quite the contrary.luvsports! wrote:Because he went from outlasting nadal with less recovery time at Aus (11 hours of tennis in 2 days or so) to being more aggressive and taking more risks.
There is a huge difference between aus and Rome '12, but i don't think he could have completely gone backwards that far fitness wise.
Tenez- Posts : 21050
Join date : 2012-06-18
Re: How And When Is Nadal Going To Retire?
GP thinks Nadal came back much fitter after 2011 and I actually agree. But I also think that the few dodgy stories about Djoko gluten free diet put pressure on him and I think he was scared of OOC testing. ...imo.noleisthebest wrote:For me, there has been a noticable difference in Nole's fitness after 2011, and I'd put AO 2012 in that same slot.
I would go so far to say that there has also been a drop in 2013.
Now here is where my lack of knowledge on how doping works starts to show:
has Nole been the same in 2012 & 2013 or has Nadal gone up in his "fitness"?The most obvious match was USO final where Nadal's physical superiority was extreme.
Now, I still think that Nole because of his more energy efficient and aggressive baseline game can beat Nadal no problem if he is serving well and is focused and composed, but I don't think he is able to go toe to toe with him physically like in 2011/AO12 any more. An occasional long rally yes, but not the whole match.
Nadal knows it which is why Toni had the guts to announce "THEY will go for AO 2014" and equal Laver's record.
There is no other explanation for it.
Nole will have to be swift and win in 3 or 4 sets, and umpiring and keeping 25 sec rule will be crucial.
The only hope is that the Aussies will maybe want to keep their Rod in the history books...or am I being a bit naive here...
Nadal certainly was again ridiculously fit after his "wimby injury"
Tenez- Posts : 21050
Join date : 2012-06-18
Re: How And When Is Nadal Going To Retire?
So you think his fitness levels dropped hugely after aus '12?Tenez wrote:But he took more risk because he knew he could not last and that to me has nothing to do with mental strength. Quite the contrary.luvsports! wrote:Because he went from outlasting nadal with less recovery time at Aus (11 hours of tennis in 2 days or so) to being more aggressive and taking more risks.
There is a huge difference between aus and Rome '12, but i don't think he could have completely gone backwards that far fitness wise.
I think they did a bit, but not as much as you say.
He hit the ceiling in aus. He did not want to go near that as rafa lost that battle but won the physical war (as he has shown in '12 and '13).
To make up for this loss of fitness, but not a huge one, he tried to overcompensate by being more aggressive and began to pull the trigger too early.
Mindset change and loss of fitness imo.
Nadal has deffo got fitter imo.
In US open '11 Nadal played at his maximum intensity in set 3 and won it and look what happened, he hit the wall. He was spent physically and lost the 4th set 6-1.
In the US he started ferociously, blowing djoko away. He tired a bit after an insane first set but picked it up again and was able to sustain it for longer, much more so than he could in their '11 final.
Yes Djoko let him back in the 3rd set but I think this year against nadal he is worse for ware when trying to tackle nadal physically. Nadal's fitness imo has shot up and djoko's may be the same, slightly improved, but on the whole it makes little difference compared to the herculean like endurance of nadal.
So overall I think Djoko played worse in '12 vs rafa than he did this year and both worse than in '11.
They were more evenly matched fitness wise in '11 but '13 rafa has pushed on even further.
I believe the mindset change in '12 was wanting to never push himself that far again more than his fitness levels dropping off greatly.
luvsports!- Posts : 4718
Join date : 2012-09-28
Re: How And When Is Nadal Going To Retire?
Too many things going on behind the scenes to know what is really going on.Tenez wrote: GP thinks Nadal came back much fitter after 2011 and I actually agree. But I also think that the few dodgy stories about Djoko gluten free diet put pressure on him and I think he was scared of OOC testing. ...imo.
Nadal certainly was again ridiculously fit after his "wimby injury"
Reminds me of The Murder On The Orient Express...
noleisthebest- Posts : 27907
Join date : 2012-06-18
Re: How And When Is Nadal Going To Retire?
After reading this:
"The Swiss news agency Blick is reporting that Rafael Nadal made around $10 million for playing one week of exhibitions in South America last month. Nadal played matches in Peru, Chile, and Argentina. Nadal’s camp wouldn’t confirm or deny the numbers.
Roger Federer went to South America last year and reportedly made $12 million, but played more matches."
...I feel rather silly for asking about Nadal's retirement.....
"The Swiss news agency Blick is reporting that Rafael Nadal made around $10 million for playing one week of exhibitions in South America last month. Nadal played matches in Peru, Chile, and Argentina. Nadal’s camp wouldn’t confirm or deny the numbers.
Roger Federer went to South America last year and reportedly made $12 million, but played more matches."
...I feel rather silly for asking about Nadal's retirement.....
noleisthebest- Posts : 27907
Join date : 2012-06-18
Re: How And When Is Nadal Going To Retire?
I did not say his fitness dropped hugely. At this level it is all about thin margins but a couple of rallies are usually enough to sort out who is the fitter and whether it is worth carrying the lung busting strategy or, if not, attacking.luvsports! wrote:So you think his fitness levels dropped hugely after aus '12?Tenez wrote:But he took more risk because he knew he could not last and that to me has nothing to do with mental strength. Quite the contrary.luvsports! wrote:Because he went from outlasting nadal with less recovery time at Aus (11 hours of tennis in 2 days or so) to being more aggressive and taking more risks.
There is a huge difference between aus and Rome '12, but i don't think he could have completely gone backwards that far fitness wise.
I think they did a bit, but not as much as you say.
He hit the ceiling in aus. He did not want to go near that as rafa lost that battle but won the physical war (as he has shown in '12 and '13).
To make up for this loss of fitness, but not a huge one, he tried to overcompensate by being more aggressive and began to pull the trigger too early.
Mindset change and loss of fitness imo.
Nadal has deffo got fitter imo.
In US open '11 Nadal played at his maximum intensity in set 3 and won it and look what happened, he hit the wall. He was spent physically and lost the 4th set 6-1.
In the US he started ferociously, blowing djoko away. He tired a bit after an insane first set but picked it up again and was able to sustain it for longer, much more so than he could in their '11 final.
Yes Djoko let him back in the 3rd set but I think this year against nadal he is worse for ware when trying to tackle nadal physically. Nadal's fitness imo has shot up and djoko's may be the same, slightly improved, but on the whole it makes little difference compared to the herculean like endurance of nadal.
So overall I think Djoko played worse in '12 vs rafa than he did this year and both worse than in '11.
They were more evenly matched fitness wise in '11 but '13 rafa has pushed on even further.
I believe the mindset change in '12 was wanting to never push himself that far again more than his fitness levels dropping off greatly.
Djoko was really going for way too risky shots and that is very much unlike his 2011 season where he was simply fit ready to absorb everything that was thrown at him.
If you have a 7 winning run against your opponent there is no reason for a sudden mental complex. ....unless you know you have not got it in you to physically outlast your opponent.
They both say it at their every single encounter :"It's going to be physical" and they don't disappoint!
Tenez- Posts : 21050
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Re: How And When Is Nadal Going To Retire?
Indeed. It explains why those guys will only retire when those invite fees will drop....and they will drop the day there are new guys at the top.noleisthebest wrote:After reading this:
"The Swiss news agency Blick is reporting that Rafael Nadal made around $10 million for playing one week of exhibitions in South America last month. Nadal played matches in Peru, Chile, and Argentina. Nadal’s camp wouldn’t confirm or deny the numbers.
Roger Federer went to South America last year and reportedly made $12 million, but played more matches."
...I feel rather silly for asking about Nadal's retirement.....
Tenez- Posts : 21050
Join date : 2012-06-18
Re: How And When Is Nadal Going To Retire?
I started watching this year's Fed-Nole WTF match last night, and actually really look forward to Fed's 2014.
I have a feeling the new year will be a better tennis year.
It would be good if Fed and Murray (as well as others) start pullimg their weight a bit and show some teeth and ambition.
I have a feeling the new year will be a better tennis year.
It would be good if Fed and Murray (as well as others) start pullimg their weight a bit and show some teeth and ambition.
noleisthebest- Posts : 27907
Join date : 2012-06-18
Re: How And When Is Nadal Going To Retire?
I sense Warped illogical analysis from Tenez and Luvsports, let's investigate shall we.
Not only did he outlast Nadal in a 6 hour match, he did it after an extremely long semifinal against Murray. Meanwhile Nadal went through a much shorter semi-final a day earlier. If not anything these set of circumstances should have given him massive massive confidence in the future, especially in his stamina.
Let's go through Nadal's most recent victories against Djokovic, and analyse whether Nadal had to wait until Djokovic got tired before going on top-
(btw when I say 'early break'- that constitutes breaking within the first 3 Djokovic service games):
MC 2012- Nadal wins with early break
Rome 2012- Nadal wins in straight sets but no early break
French Open 2012- Nadal wins with early break
French Open 2013- Nadal wins with early break
Montreal 2013- Nadal wins with early break
US Open 2013- Nadal wins with early break
So in 5/6 Nadal victories, Nadal secured the early break. Does Djokovic really get tired within 3 service games.
Let's remember this:
Djokovic in the Australian Open R4 2013 battled Wawrinka in a 5 set marathon, then came back 2 days later and routined Berdych in 4 sets. Is this a guy who gets tired within 3 service games against Nadal?? Nonsense, and you know it.
So not only does your post not make logical sense (why on earth would Djokovic lose confidence in his stamina after an episode which should boost confidence in it- AO 2012), and statistically Nadal has broken Djokovic very early in 5 out of 6 wins, so it is not as if Nadal has waited for Djokovic to get tired.
Now let's see my two theories to describe why I think Djokovic's results have gone the way they did-
(both these theories I think are true):
1/ Mental lapses-
Djokovic I think was prone to mental lapses throughout 2012 and 2013. These are, by definition, inexplicable- his mind seems to wonder and he loses the plot for a 15 minute period or so. Nadal did not really have this problem, not yet anyway; while Federer developed these lapses as he got older.
Examples can be against the likes of Haas (Miami 2013) and Isner (Cincy 2013), can we really believe Haas and Isner have better fitness and stamina than Djokovic??
So my first theory to his relatively poor results in 2012/2013 is his tendency to go mentally walkabout for periods.
2/ Forced to be more aggressive against Nadal-
My second theory is on his specific match-up against Nadal, and I believe I have overwhelming evidence to suggest this is true.
In 2011 Nadal tactically played Djokovic like he plays Federer, in his comfort zone- with many neutral rallies to the backhand. However in 2011 Djokovic was simply too solid, and knew that he could have these rallies without taking too much of a risk- as he was aware eventually gaps would open up that he could feed into.
However in 2012, especially during the French Open, Nadal showed a notable change against Djokovic. Instead of going to the backhand, Nadal was making all the efforts he could to rip the forehand down the line, whenever he had the chance. Nadal realised that if he didn't implement this gameplan change, he was toast. This also coincided with a heavier racket which Nadal used in 2012, which was in place to ensure he could get more depth.
As Jim Courier himself said during the French Open 2012, and I have this record on V+, 'Nadal is killing Djokovic with the forehand down-the-line here'. If you can watch highlights of the match, in the first game Nadal breaks Djokovic with 2 sensational forehand winners down the line.
Anyway, this change-up from Nadal meant that Djokovic realised he had to do more than just keep it a neutral rally- he had to try and dominate more aggressively from the baseline (as he can with his sensational groundstrokes).
This can primarily explain the shift in Djokovic's game-play, he needs to get on top of Nadal early, and cannot let Nadal get time on the forehand. Encouraging news for Djokovic fans though is that Nole has the ability to do that if he serves and returns well- look at WTF final 2013. However it is a high risk strategy, and may backfire easily.
I think we can see that both my explanations are logically sound, while Tenez and Luvsports your theories unfortunately were not just illogical, but were refuted by the statistics.
Why never again?luvsports! wrote:Hit the wall in aus 2012... never again!
Not only did he outlast Nadal in a 6 hour match, he did it after an extremely long semifinal against Murray. Meanwhile Nadal went through a much shorter semi-final a day earlier. If not anything these set of circumstances should have given him massive massive confidence in the future, especially in his stamina.
You associate everything to fitness level.. even when it is not the case.Tenez wrote:But he took more risk because he knew he could not last and that to me has nothing to do with mental strength.
Let's go through Nadal's most recent victories against Djokovic, and analyse whether Nadal had to wait until Djokovic got tired before going on top-
(btw when I say 'early break'- that constitutes breaking within the first 3 Djokovic service games):
MC 2012- Nadal wins with early break
Rome 2012- Nadal wins in straight sets but no early break
French Open 2012- Nadal wins with early break
French Open 2013- Nadal wins with early break
Montreal 2013- Nadal wins with early break
US Open 2013- Nadal wins with early break
So in 5/6 Nadal victories, Nadal secured the early break. Does Djokovic really get tired within 3 service games.
Let's remember this:
Djokovic in the Australian Open R4 2013 battled Wawrinka in a 5 set marathon, then came back 2 days later and routined Berdych in 4 sets. Is this a guy who gets tired within 3 service games against Nadal?? Nonsense, and you know it.
So not only does your post not make logical sense (why on earth would Djokovic lose confidence in his stamina after an episode which should boost confidence in it- AO 2012), and statistically Nadal has broken Djokovic very early in 5 out of 6 wins, so it is not as if Nadal has waited for Djokovic to get tired.
Now let's see my two theories to describe why I think Djokovic's results have gone the way they did-
(both these theories I think are true):
1/ Mental lapses-
Djokovic I think was prone to mental lapses throughout 2012 and 2013. These are, by definition, inexplicable- his mind seems to wonder and he loses the plot for a 15 minute period or so. Nadal did not really have this problem, not yet anyway; while Federer developed these lapses as he got older.
Examples can be against the likes of Haas (Miami 2013) and Isner (Cincy 2013), can we really believe Haas and Isner have better fitness and stamina than Djokovic??
So my first theory to his relatively poor results in 2012/2013 is his tendency to go mentally walkabout for periods.
2/ Forced to be more aggressive against Nadal-
My second theory is on his specific match-up against Nadal, and I believe I have overwhelming evidence to suggest this is true.
In 2011 Nadal tactically played Djokovic like he plays Federer, in his comfort zone- with many neutral rallies to the backhand. However in 2011 Djokovic was simply too solid, and knew that he could have these rallies without taking too much of a risk- as he was aware eventually gaps would open up that he could feed into.
However in 2012, especially during the French Open, Nadal showed a notable change against Djokovic. Instead of going to the backhand, Nadal was making all the efforts he could to rip the forehand down the line, whenever he had the chance. Nadal realised that if he didn't implement this gameplan change, he was toast. This also coincided with a heavier racket which Nadal used in 2012, which was in place to ensure he could get more depth.
As Jim Courier himself said during the French Open 2012, and I have this record on V+, 'Nadal is killing Djokovic with the forehand down-the-line here'. If you can watch highlights of the match, in the first game Nadal breaks Djokovic with 2 sensational forehand winners down the line.
Anyway, this change-up from Nadal meant that Djokovic realised he had to do more than just keep it a neutral rally- he had to try and dominate more aggressively from the baseline (as he can with his sensational groundstrokes).
This can primarily explain the shift in Djokovic's game-play, he needs to get on top of Nadal early, and cannot let Nadal get time on the forehand. Encouraging news for Djokovic fans though is that Nole has the ability to do that if he serves and returns well- look at WTF final 2013. However it is a high risk strategy, and may backfire easily.
I think we can see that both my explanations are logically sound, while Tenez and Luvsports your theories unfortunately were not just illogical, but were refuted by the statistics.
N2D2L- Posts : 5813
Join date : 2013-05-03
Re: How And When Is Nadal Going To Retire?
You seem to not actually read people's comment's you just nit pick.
I explained that point in detail yet you choose to gloss over it.
It is funny how you see your "logic" has undeniable fact and how we are illogical.
I explained that point in detail yet you choose to gloss over it.
It is funny how you see your "logic" has undeniable fact and how we are illogical.
luvsports!- Posts : 4718
Join date : 2012-09-28
Re: How And When Is Nadal Going To Retire?
I can assure you I read your posts in great detail, the reason I didn't quote your longer comment is because my whole post was getting too long.luvsports! wrote:You seem to not actually read people's comment's you just nit pick.
I explained that point in detail yet you choose to gloss over it.
Well the evidence overwhelmingly backs my case.luvsports! wrote:
It is funny how you see your "logic" has undeniable fact and how we are illogical.
N2D2L- Posts : 5813
Join date : 2013-05-03
Re: How And When Is Nadal Going To Retire?
I said why he hit the ceiling and why he doesn't want to go there.
SO you clearly didn't.
Your view is subjective, as is mine.
To you it backs your case, to others it doesn't.
SO you clearly didn't.
Your view is subjective, as is mine.
To you it backs your case, to others it doesn't.
luvsports!- Posts : 4718
Join date : 2012-09-28
Re: How And When Is Nadal Going To Retire?
This was your explanation:luvsports! wrote:I said why he hit the ceiling and why he doesn't want to go there.
SO you clearly didn't.
Your view is subjective, as is mine.
To you it backs your case, to others it doesn't.
How could Rafa have won the physical war in AO 2012? He played a far shorted semi, played the semi a day earlier, and still got outlasted by Djokovic.He hit the ceiling in aus. He did not want to go near that as rafa lost that battle but won the physical war (as he has shown in '12 and '13).
To make up for this loss of fitness, but not a huge one, he tried to overcompensate by being more aggressive and began to pull the trigger too early.
Mindset change and loss of fitness imo.
You then talk about the loss of fitness, but my post directly refutes that- perhaps you can directly try and rebuttal that
Edit: By my post, I'm talking about the long one at 3:10.
N2D2L- Posts : 5813
Join date : 2013-05-03
Re: How And When Is Nadal Going To Retire?
Again you are not getting the whole quote.
What is the point of debating if you choose to ignore points?
I said after aus '12. From then on in his matches in slams vs rafa he lost the physical war but djoko won that particular battle in aus, then i believe the mindset changed.
It rebuts it in your opinion.
But matches you used this year I think are very different from rafa matches which on the whole are far more grueling.
Djoko's fitness was insane in '12 (outlast murray AND rafa), in '12 had a fantastic, but long match vs stan and then a fairly easy short match vs bird.
How do they compare? They are very different types of matches as the opponents don't play the tennis murray and nadal do.
I agree about the mental lapses.
Against Nadal they weren't really there in '11 when he was level, if not ahead of rafa fitness wise.
Rafa has now pushed on further to a level that makes it harder for nole to go toe to toe, as he has to take more risks because he cannot outlast rafa anymore.
What is the point of debating if you choose to ignore points?
I said after aus '12. From then on in his matches in slams vs rafa he lost the physical war but djoko won that particular battle in aus, then i believe the mindset changed.
It rebuts it in your opinion.
But matches you used this year I think are very different from rafa matches which on the whole are far more grueling.
Djoko's fitness was insane in '12 (outlast murray AND rafa), in '12 had a fantastic, but long match vs stan and then a fairly easy short match vs bird.
How do they compare? They are very different types of matches as the opponents don't play the tennis murray and nadal do.
I agree about the mental lapses.
Against Nadal they weren't really there in '11 when he was level, if not ahead of rafa fitness wise.
Rafa has now pushed on further to a level that makes it harder for nole to go toe to toe, as he has to take more risks because he cannot outlast rafa anymore.
luvsports!- Posts : 4718
Join date : 2012-09-28
Re: How And When Is Nadal Going To Retire?
But why?I said after aus '12. From then on in his matches in slams vs rafa he lost the physical war but djoko won that particular battle in aus, then i believe the mindset changed.
Why would he change his mindset after the AO 2012?
True, but the fact he seemed so fresh against Berdych still says a lot about his amazing stamina.Djoko's fitness was insane in '12 (outlast murray AND rafa), in '13 had a fantastic, but long match vs stan and then a fairly easy short match vs bird.
How do they compare? They are very different types of matches as the opponents don't play the tennis murray and nadal do.
Do you think mental lapses and fitness are connected?I agree about the mental lapses.
Against Nadal they weren't really there in '11 when he was level, if not ahead of rafa fitness wise.
He also had lapses against Isner and Haas, surely you can't argue that he has better fitness than them.
btw out of my two theories you have agreed with number 1, what about number 2?
N2D2L- Posts : 5813
Join date : 2013-05-03
Re: How And When Is Nadal Going To Retire?
Because he went to a place where he does not want to ever go to again I believe.
Pushed to levels he can not go again as I think it took more out of him that win than it did to rafa who took great heart from that loss.
Djoko wanted to be more efficient I believe and not have to take as long a route to victory.
In the sense related to rafa yes, because if djoko was on a par to rafa fitness wise now I don't think he would have those mental lapses as he could go toe-toe-toe as he did in '11.
As he is not he has to be more aggressive and take more risks which requires greater concentration levels and is much harder to keep up than rafa's generally risk averse style.
Lapses can be from loss of motivation or perhaps a bad day at the office from a perfunctory performance.
Yes I do agree but I think they are, wouldn't go as far as saying they are negligible (far from it even), not as important as you are making them out to be.
Pushed to levels he can not go again as I think it took more out of him that win than it did to rafa who took great heart from that loss.
Djoko wanted to be more efficient I believe and not have to take as long a route to victory.
In the sense related to rafa yes, because if djoko was on a par to rafa fitness wise now I don't think he would have those mental lapses as he could go toe-toe-toe as he did in '11.
As he is not he has to be more aggressive and take more risks which requires greater concentration levels and is much harder to keep up than rafa's generally risk averse style.
Lapses can be from loss of motivation or perhaps a bad day at the office from a perfunctory performance.
Yes I do agree but I think they are, wouldn't go as far as saying they are negligible (far from it even), not as important as you are making them out to be.
luvsports!- Posts : 4718
Join date : 2012-09-28
Re: How And When Is Nadal Going To Retire?
Good post.luvsports! wrote:Because he went to a place where he does not want to ever go to again I believe.
Pushed to levels he can not go again as I think it took more out of him that win than it did to rafa who took great heart from that loss.
Djoko wanted to be more efficient I believe and not have to take as long a route to victory.
In the sense related to rafa yes, because if djoko was on a par to rafa fitness wise now I don't think he would have those mental lapses as he could go toe-toe-toe as he did in '11.
As he is not he has to be more aggressive and take more risks which requires greater concentration levels and is much harder to keep up than rafa's generally risk averse style.
Lapses can be from loss of motivation or perhaps a bad day at the office from a perfunctory performance.
Yes I do agree but I think they are, wouldn't go as far as saying they are negligible (far from it even), not as important as you are making them out to be.
I think Djoko could be as fit as 2011 but he probably fears for his image. I always go back to that very mysterious January 2011 interview he gave (or was it Dec 10) where he said "I could have reached the top earlier but I did not want to cut corners, ethics is important for me".
In light of what happened then I find this declaration so revealing.
Tenez- Posts : 21050
Join date : 2012-06-18
Re: How And When Is Nadal Going To Retire?
Why?luvsports! wrote:Because he went to a place where he does not want to ever go to again I believe.
Pushed to levels he can not go again as I think it took more out of him that win than it did to rafa who took great heart from that loss.
Djokovic after AO 2012 had won 4 out of the last 5 slams and world number 1. In the AO 2012 he had passed the hardest 'stamina test' possible, winning both marathons in a row. Why would he want to change anything?
Do you have a PHD in straw clutchingI think Djoko could be as fit as 2011 but he probably fears for his image.
N2D2L- Posts : 5813
Join date : 2013-05-03
Re: How And When Is Nadal Going To Retire?
Because it took too much out of him. I think you don't understand the "ceiling" reference.
luvsports!- Posts : 4718
Join date : 2012-09-28
Re: How And When Is Nadal Going To Retire?
You keep misquoting it, and I'm still around to remind you of itTenez wrote:
I think Djoko could be as fit as 2011 but he probably fears for his image. I always go back to that very mysterious January 2011 interview he gave (or was it Dec 10) where he said "I could have reached the top earlier but I did not want to cut corners, ethics is important for me".
In light of what happened then I find this declaration so revealing.
noleisthebest- Posts : 27907
Join date : 2012-06-18
Re: How And When Is Nadal Going To Retire?
Well...Not the right words but the same meaning. Please find it again!
Tenez- Posts : 21050
Join date : 2012-06-18
Re: How And When Is Nadal Going To Retire?
Yes but that was especially bad because it was two matches in a row... if he's in the semi of a FO against Nadal as he was in 2013- surely he would do his best to win the match as he had a easier final?luvsports! wrote:Because it took too much out of him. I think you don't understand the "ceiling" reference.
N2D2L- Posts : 5813
Join date : 2013-05-03
Re: How And When Is Nadal Going To Retire?
What has that got to do with my point about hitting the ceiling, inferior fitness to nadal and changing the mindset of his play?
luvsports!- Posts : 4718
Join date : 2012-09-28
Re: How And When Is Nadal Going To Retire?
Why would him 'hitting the ceiling' suddenly mean Djokovic tries to change he style of play and get less fit?luvsports! wrote:What has that got to do with my point about hitting the ceiling, inferior fitness to nadal and changing the mindset of his play?
N2D2L- Posts : 5813
Join date : 2013-05-03
Re: How And When Is Nadal Going To Retire?
I thought it was rather axiomatic 2bh.
You reach a point that takes too much out of you, for your own sake it is not good to go back to those levels.
I didn't say he tried to get less fit. I just think he altered his approach accordingly to be more aggressive against nadal. Focusing on going for his shots more than improving his fitness further still as I believe Nadal has done.
You reach a point that takes too much out of you, for your own sake it is not good to go back to those levels.
I didn't say he tried to get less fit. I just think he altered his approach accordingly to be more aggressive against nadal. Focusing on going for his shots more than improving his fitness further still as I believe Nadal has done.
luvsports!- Posts : 4718
Join date : 2012-09-28
Re: How And When Is Nadal Going To Retire?
No, not the same meaning, you read into it.Tenez wrote:Well...Not the right words but the same meaning. Please find it again!
It's been a while since that interview and I know that last time you misquoted it I was able to find it (could have even been on OTF), and you were not able to confirm he said what you thought he did.
It wasn't even the case of Freudian slip.
So... YOU please find it this time
Not that it changes much unfortunately...
noleisthebest- Posts : 27907
Join date : 2012-06-18
Re: How And When Is Nadal Going To Retire?
The thing with Nadal is, nobody whats to play him not because he is a great player like Federer, but because he is so physically strong.
What player in the right mind can afford to stand 4m behind the baseline and have the confidence that he will win...
At what point will it become humanly impossible to gain more physical strength for Nadal?
Are there any limits, and where are those limits?
Those crazy athletes are having their blood mixed with horses' and even dogs' blood masked as injury - tendon treatments, it's getting a bit ridiculous.
What player in the right mind can afford to stand 4m behind the baseline and have the confidence that he will win...
At what point will it become humanly impossible to gain more physical strength for Nadal?
Are there any limits, and where are those limits?
Those crazy athletes are having their blood mixed with horses' and even dogs' blood masked as injury - tendon treatments, it's getting a bit ridiculous.
noleisthebest- Posts : 27907
Join date : 2012-06-18
Re: How And When Is Nadal Going To Retire?
Horse Blood?
lol NITB, not sure anyone is using horse blood.
lol NITB, not sure anyone is using horse blood.
N2D2L- Posts : 5813
Join date : 2013-05-03
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