Roland Garros 2014: THE DRAW IS OUT/Order of Play

I was hoping Roger would be playing Sunday. That will mean one extra day of rest between the matches for him.

noleisthebest wrote:If the organisers tried to make Nole's quarter/draw tougher, they would have had a difficult job!
Tsonga is a last year SF-ist and someone who had match points agains Nole in RG two years ago.

If Tsonga had been in Rafa's section, you would have remembered that he was woefully out of form.

Rafa was a slight favorite with bookies before the draw, and Nole after the draw, suggesting they have Rafa's draw as a touch more difficult than Nole's. I am not sure I quite agree but it certainly is not the case that Nole's draw is much harder.

noleisthebest wrote:Easy....the answer is $$$. Where does the prize money come from?  certainly not from me paying £79 a year for my tennistv subscription, so it's the sponsors...Nike, Babolat...

I don't doubt it's all about money, so I had a look at the official sponsors of RG. They include: BNP Paribas (main sponsor), IBM, Emirates, FedEx, GDF Suez, Lacoste (!), Longines (don't know whether they have a player endorsing them), Perrier, Peugeot. Official suppliers: adidas (!), Adecco, Babolat, Häagen Dazs, Lagardère, JCDecaux, MasterCard, Nespresso, orange, Rexonamen, Tropicana, viagogo

From what I know, the only company there with a direct connection to Nadal is Babolat. Some of these companies even sponsor other players like adidas and lacoste. And Babolat is only an official supplier, not even an official partner. So the majority of these companies should be more interested in the appeal/ success of the event they sponsor than in the support of a particular player. I don't see Babolat outbidding them all.

Money should also be generated by selling TV rights. (Are the Grand Slams even shown on TennisTV?) And TV stations are interested in increasing viewership, i.e. selling time for commercials or bringing in new crowds (if it's pay TV). This is also important for the sponsors because they get TV time as well.

So it seems to me that a majority of stakeholders would go for generating a larger interest in the event. (maybe with the exception of Babolat) They look for the big emotional moments, the big stories that move viewers (ie. potential clients of above companies). I just don't see how Nadal could possibly give them that (if he doesn't lose that is). A comeback story after losing a few times would be that much more compelling. They obviously chose 2009 as the most emotional moment at RG.

As for the possible (and maybe likely) draw rigging before AO 2012: The reasoning for it though could be quite different than a proposed easing of the draw for Nadal at RG. On the thread you mentioned, it was speculated that the Slams may have rigged the draw to boost chances for a Fedal meeting. And it was the big story, "rivalry", until Djokovic came into the picture in 2011, the one to generate interest in a larger public. Though at RG the "big rivalry" story didn't work anymore since 2008. That was such a sad beatdown, that even someone as obnoxious as Nadal didn't celebrate much. The viewers were shocked and not in a good way.

So RG was the exception to the proposed draw rigging, because Djoko rather randomly was on the Fed side or the Nadal side. And RG coincidentally should have the least motivation to ease the road to a Nadal win.

projected semis since 2008 at RG (higher seed first)
2008 Nadal - Djoko
2009 Federer - Djoko
2010 Nadal - Djoko
2011 Djoko - Federer
2012 Djoko - Federer
2013 Djoko - Nadal
2014 Djoko - Federer

Obviously there is still the chance of a Fedal final every year, but that cannot be avoided with the exception of 2013 (if you put Nadal in Fed's section for a potential SF clash, though Djoko has the better chance to beat Nadal, so if you want to get rid of him, I'd put Nadal to Djoko).

Autumnleaf wrote:From what I know, the only company there with a direct connection to Nadal is Babolat. Some of these companies even sponsor other players like adidas and lacoste. And Babolat is only an official supplier, not even an official partner. So the majority of these companies should be more interested in the appeal/ success of the event they sponsor than in the support of a particular player. I don't see Babolat outbidding them all.
Money should also be generated by selling TV rights. (Are the Grand Slams even shown on TennisTV?) And TV stations are interested in increasing viewership, i.e. selling time for commercials or bringing in new crowds (if it's pay TV). This is also important for the sponsors because they get TV time as well.
So it seems to me that a majority of stakeholders would go for generating a larger interest in the event. (maybe with the exception of Babolat) They look for the big emotional moments, the big stories that move viewers (ie. potential clients of above companies). I just don't see how Nadal could possibly give them that (if he doesn't lose that is). A comeback story after losing a few times would be that much more compelling. They obviously chose 2009 as the most emotional moment at RG.

That is the easiest bit of all..haven't you noticed how hard commentators try to sell Nadal, and amazingly succeed, with the average tennis fan buying it with no questions asked.
Do you remember how much hupe went into AO 2012 final: epic fight, gladiators, brilliance....my foot! The worst match and a symbol of everything that's wrong with tennis, the only good thing about it was Nadal lost.
Commentators had to walk on eggshells all the time and never mention or question sources of that "amazing" physical endurance.
It's just another form of brain-washing media do on just about every other aspect of life: politics, music, show-business industry - well, tennis has become The Show anyway, according to Nadal. He is untouchable by umpires because he is good for the show...read the $$$...
Federer is the opposite, he doesn't need any marketing, his talent is a magnet everywhere he goes.

Every time I say I dislike Nadal in my club, I get the strange look and the reply: why, he is such a nice guy!?

Marketing teams have done a miracle with him: a guy with zero charisma who can still barely string a decent sentence in English,  suspect looks (I won't go too much into it, as really it's a matter of personal taste/lack of) vulgar and annoying on court habits, playing ugly, grunting, sweaty tennis gets away with being called a humble warrior, a tennis great...even GOAT!!! a poster boy who does a strip off job after every match to the delight of screaming old women...

Money buys and money sells.

Thank you for your answer NITB,

yes, it's probably my failure to see anything worthy, admirable or beautiful about Nadal. He move very well and he is very strong, both abilities enhanced by drug use. I admit, I am completely clueless what anybody could possibly like about him. Yeah, his looks surely are a matter of taste and he seemed to have appealed to a certain population segment which I will never understand though. 

These looks of his are waning though at the moment and I don't see how he could attract new fans with his looks now. He is getting balder by the day and his veins are showing. Though, I am probably not the right person to see it when I can't even see the attraction in the first place.   

Plus, he WAS booed in the AO final.   Shouldn't the sponsors catch up on that? Maybe he is not as popular as they think he is?   Or not in a good way at least? Maybe people love to hate him rather? I also see that he is second class wrt endorsements.

Dead on about the commentators, it's appalling to listen to the swooning.  

The thread is still there on v2 and remains a fascinating read! Tenez and myself the notorious conspirationists!   
I just looked at the first page, will read more later...better than the "news"!

http://www.606v2.com/t27820-draw-fixing-an-official-study?highlight=Draw+fixing+fficul

We may not agree on the relative merits of the draws of our valiant warriors, but I think we will agree that it is nice to have the picture of their projected paths updated based on latest developments.

The main change is replacement of Stan with Andy in my table, as Andy is now the highest remaining seed in the second quarter.

Here we go:

	Nadal	Murray	Federer	Djokovic
R1	-	Golubev	-	-
R2	Thiem	Matosevic	Schwartzman	Chardy
R3	Gabashvili	Kohlschreiber	Tursunov	Cilic
R4	Haas/Almagro	Gasquet/Verdasco	Youzhny/Gulbis	Tsonga
QF	Ferrer/Dimitrov	Fognini/Monfils	Berdych	Raonic/Dolgopolov
SF	Murray	Nadal	Djokovic	Federer
F	Djokovic	Djokovic	Nadal	Nadal

Djokovic has  a nightmare of a draw compared to Nadal.

Yes, Nole's draw looks as tough as it can get compared to all other top seeds. Imagine Nadal with all those players...Tsonga is going to be difficult.
He does not have a single breather match, compared to Nadal and others.
I mean, what was that joke of Ginepri yesterday all about!?
What a waste of wildcard...they should have given it to somebody else...look what he said:

“Bit of a downer,” he would say after today’s match. “Midway through practice with Jack Sock, they (friends) were all on the changeover and they were like, ‘The draw is out. Do you want to know who you play?’ I said, ‘Sure.’ They said, ‘Nadal.’ I don't think I made another ball the rest of that practice.”

Another update reflecting mayhem in the Haas/Almagro section:

	Nadal	Murray	Federer	Djokovic
R2	Thiem	Matosevic	Schwartzman	Chardy
R3	Gabashvili	Kohlschreiber	Tursunov	Cilic
R4	Sock/Johnson	Gasquet/Verdasco	Youzhny/Gulbis	Tsonga
QF	Ferrer	Fognini/Monfils	Berdych	Raonic/Dolgopolov
SF	Murray	Nadal	Djokovic	Federer
F	Djokovic	Djokovic	Nadal	Nadal

summerblues wrote:Another update reflecting mayhem in the Haas/Almagro section:

	Nadal	Murray	Federer	Djokovic
R2	Thiem	Matosevic	Schwartzman	Chardy
R3	Gabashvili	Kohlschreiber	Tursunov	Cilic
R4	Sock/Johnson	Gasquet/Verdasco	Youzhny/Gulbis	Tsonga
QF	Ferrer	Fognini/Monfils	Berdych	Raonic/Dolgopolov
SF	Murray	Nadal	Djokovic	Federer
F	Djokovic	Djokovic	Nadal	Nadal

You mean in the Nadal section! Yes but frankly neither Haas or Almagro were going to be a danger anyway! certainly not over 5!

summerblues wrote:Another update reflecting mayhem in the Haas/Almagro section:

	Nadal	Murray	Federer	Djokovic
R2	Thiem	Matosevic	Schwartzman	Chardy
R3	Gabashvili	Kohlschreiber	Tursunov	Cilic
R4	Sock/Johnson	Gasquet/Verdasco	Youzhny/Gulbis	Tsonga
QF	Ferrer	Fognini/Monfils	Berdych	Raonic/Dolgopolov
SF	Murray	Nadal	Djokovic	Federer
F	Djokovic	Djokovic	Nadal	Nadal

Nadal's draw looks easier by the minute....who on earth is Johnson?!!!!!!!  

Btw, where is Karlovic in that table, you haven't "eliminated" him in advance, for taking out Dimi, have you?  

Arrogance, stupidity, idiocy?
To think that someone like this gets paid a two week + trip to Paris and watch RG for free....

http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=3c494h5mt_E

noleisthebest wrote:Yes, Nole's draw looks as tough as it can get compared to all other top seeds. Imagine Nadal with all those players...Tsonga is going to be difficult.
He does not have a single breather match, compared to Nadal and others.
I mean, what was that joke of Ginepri yesterday all about!?
What a waste of wildcard...they should have given it to somebody else...look what he said:

“Bit of a downer,” he would say after today’s match. “Midway through practice with Jack Sock, they (friends) were all on the changeover and they were like, ‘The draw is out. Do you want to know who you play?’ I said, ‘Sure.’ They said, ‘Nadal.’ I don't think I made another ball the rest of that practice.”

That's one of the most pathetic things I have ever read. Any professional with that mentality should just quit, as they do not have what it takes.

Completely agree! At first I woudl have thought that Mahut was a bit rude but the journalist did not apologise at first only when Mahut showed he was angry that he said sorry for getting it wrong....sorry too late! As you say he has a simple and great job so do it well!

Yes!
Especially as apparently there are two interview/press conference rooms in RG, one for players who have won and one for those who lost.
To add salt to the wound, Mahut had just played a very, very long match and everyone wanted him to win, as he was going to play Isner in the next round....

noleisthebest wrote:Arrogance, stupidity, idiocy?
To think that someone like this gets paid a two week + trip to Paris and watch RG for free....

http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=3c494h5mt_E

LOL

noleisthebest wrote:Btw, where is Karlovic in that table, you haven't  "eliminated" him  in advance, for taking out Dimi, have you?  

No, but in my subjective (though clearly very well thought out ) judgment he is likely to lose before he would appear in this table.  But to humor you, I will add him back in today's version.

Here we are, likely paths to the title after today's matches:

	Nadal	Murray	Federer	Djokovic
R2	Thiem	Matosevic	-	-
R3	Gabashvili	Kohlschreiber	Tursunov	Cilic
R4	Sock/Johnson	Gasquet/Verdasco	Gulbis	Tsonga
QF	Ferrer/Karlovic	Fognini/Monfils	Berdych	Raonic
SF	Murray	Nadal	Djokovic	Federer
F	Djokovic	Djokovic	Nadal	Nadal

This is the last time I update this as the draw is now small enough for us to remember it all.

Fed's loss today removes a potentially tricky opponent from Nole's path.  He is 4-1 vs Gulbis and 15-2 vs Berdych, while he was 1-2 against Roger this year alone.

	Nadal	Murray	Berdych	Djokovic
R4	Lajovic	Verdasco	-	Tsonga
QF	Ferrer	Monfils	Gulbis	Raonic
SF	Murray	Nadal	Djokovic	Berdych/Gulbis
F	Djokovic	Djokovic	Nadal	Nadal

I see verdasco beating Murray actually.

Tenez wrote:I see verdasco beating Murray actually.

Murray on clay is unpredictable.  I can certainly see him potentially losing to either Verdasco or Monfils, but I can also see him giving Rafa hard time, should they meet.