Re: Roland Garros 2018 + The Draw

by naxroy Thu May 24, 2018 8:30 pm

dolgopolov in first round is a bit tricky, but above all, sousa in second round is a real danger for anyone, he recently won estoril beating the likes of tsitsipas, tiafoe and edmund.
gasquet never really hurt nadal so I cant see problems there
shapovalov in 4th shall be interesting

then I see coric as the more possible rival for quarters, not bad for nadal, seeing what could have been

if he is fit, delpo would be there for the semis, if the argentinian gets so far it will be a real threat for the spaniard

by Jahu Thu May 24, 2018 10:45 pm

naxroy wrote:Happy that the most prestigious slam is only a couple of days ahead of us

Get off kool-aid man, RG is even behind AO, let alone USO/W. Only Djoko/Stan made it interesting last few years.

by summerblues Fri May 25, 2018 2:51 am

Lady Luck smiled on Rafa. Not a bad draw at all.

Here are top 10 point getters on clay through Rome:

1. Nadal: 2680
2. Zverev: 2210
3. Thiem: 915 (Zverev)
4. Nishikori: 790 (Zverev)
5. Goffin: 630 (Zverev)
6. Cilic: 540 (Rafa)
7. Dimitrov: 505 (Zverev)
8. Djokovic: 495 (Zverev)
9. Tsitsipas: 480 (Zverev)
10. Edmund: 475 (Rafa)

Only Cilic and Edmund of these are in Rafa's half. That is arguably as easy as it could have been. One might discuss it on the margins - is Dimi harder or easier than Cilic - but all in all it could hardly have been any easier.

His early rounds are relatively trickier - but early rounds typically do not matter nearly as much as later rounds.

Also agree with nitb, when you look at top 8 seeds - the whole field is just incredibly weak.

by summerblues Fri May 25, 2018 2:53 am

naxroy wrote:the most prestigious slam is only a couple of days ahead of us

by summerblues Fri May 25, 2018 2:55 am

noleisthebest wrote:Draw tomorrow at 7pm.

Current odds:

Rafael Nadal 1/2
Dominic Thiem 12/1
Novak Djokovic 12/1
Alexander Zverev 22/1
Juan Martin del Potro 22/1 (I thought he wasn't playing???)

What are the odds now, after the draw? Presumably Rafa's odds are even shorter?

by Tenez Fri May 25, 2018 9:30 am

It's depressing to see that once again all the dangerous players are on the other side and they will have to kill each others to have the right to play a fresher nadal!

Nadal only has Cilic and Edmund amongst SB list and yet only one can/could meet Nadal in the semi!

It's going to be a very boring RG. Pathetic!

by naxroy Fri May 25, 2018 9:37 am

summerblues wrote:Lady Luck smiled on Rafa. Not a bad draw at all.

Here are top 10 point getters on clay through Rome:

1. Nadal: 2680
2. Zverev: 2210
3. Thiem: 915 (Zverev)
4. Nishikori: 790 (Zverev)
5. Goffin: 630 (Zverev)
6. Cilic: 540 (Rafa)
7. Dimitrov: 505 (Zverev)
8. Djokovic: 495 (Zverev)
9. Tsitsipas: 480 (Zverev)
10. Edmund: 475 (Rafa)

Only Cilic and Edmund of these are in Rafa's half. That is arguably as easy as it could have been. One might discuss it on the margins - is Dimi harder or easier than Cilic - but all in all it could hardly have been any easier.

His early rounds are relatively trickier - but early rounds typically do not matter nearly as much as later rounds.

Also agree with nitb, when you look at top 8 seeds - the whole field is just incredibly weak.

very good analysis there

anyway, the draw is what it is, and it can turn harder or easier as players advance.

I think Rafa had on paper a good draw, but he will have to be in good form in those first two rounds in order to avoid extra time on court

by naxroy Fri May 25, 2018 10:19 am

Tenez wrote:It's depressing to see that once again all the dangerous players are on the other side and they will have to kill each others to have the right to play a fresher nadal!

Nadal only has Cilic and Edmund amongst SB list and yet only one can/could meet Nadal in the semi!

It's going to be a very boring RG. Pathetic!

dont worry, grass season is round the corner

by Tenez Fri May 25, 2018 11:38 am

naxroy wrote:
Tenez wrote:It's depressing to see that once again all the dangerous players are on the other side and they will have to kill each others to have the right to play a fresher nadal!

Nadal only has Cilic and Edmund amongst SB list and yet only one can/could meet Nadal in the semi!

It's going to be a very boring RG. Pathetic!

dont worry, grass season is round the corner

It will make things more open for sure but why should I (we rather) be deprived of an exciting clay season cause one guy standing 5m behind the baseline can retrieve all the balls at nausea thanks to dodgy fitness and breaking the rule between every point??

by naxroy Fri May 25, 2018 12:32 pm

its not your fault that Nadal is so much better than the rest on clay, that is true. I am sorry that you lot cannot enjoy his incredible achievements.

its been 15 hard years with just a few nice surprises for you in 2009, 2015 and 2016, but the nightmare is almos over, I dont think he will be winning many more years, actually, you never know.... maybe this year? for sure, some day soon.

in the meanwhile, you will have lived to witness the best claycourter ever and you werent able to enjoy it.

by naxroy Fri May 25, 2018 12:41 pm

its gonna be warm and humid with lot of rain all tournament

by noleisthebest Fri May 25, 2018 4:55 pm

naxroy wrote:its not your fault that Nadal is so much better than the rest on clay, that is true. I am sorry that you lot cannot enjoy his incredible achievements.

its been 15 hard years with just a few nice surprises for you in 2009, 2015 and 2016, but the nightmare is almos over, I dont think he will be winning many more years, actually, you never know.... maybe this year? for sure, some day soon.

in the meanwhile, you will have lived to witness the best claycourter ever and you werent able to enjoy it.

Actually I am sorry that you can enjoy.
In Nadal’s case, achievements are irrelevant, it’s enjoying tennis that matters.

by naxroy Fri May 25, 2018 4:59 pm

noleisthebest wrote:
naxroy wrote:its not your fault that Nadal is so much better than the rest on clay, that is true. I am sorry that you lot cannot enjoy his incredible achievements.

its been 15 hard years with just a few nice surprises for you in 2009, 2015 and 2016, but the nightmare is almos over, I dont think he will be winning many more years, actually, you never know.... maybe this year? for sure, some day soon.

in the meanwhile, you will have lived to witness the best claycourter ever and you werent able to enjoy it.
Actually I am sorry that you can enjoy.
In Nadal’s case, achievements are irrelevant, it’s enjoying tennis that matters.

Of course, his tennis is very enjoyable.

by N2D2L Fri May 25, 2018 5:14 pm

naxroy wrote:its gonna be warm and humid with lot of rain all tournament

Not good news for Nadal, not at all. Sad

by naxroy Fri May 25, 2018 5:31 pm

DECIMA wrote:
naxroy wrote:its gonna be warm and humid with lot of rain all tournament
Not good news for Nadal, not at all.

not the best conditions for him, still I dont think the first three rounds have players that can take advantage of such conditions against him.

maybe delpo in those conditions in semis could have his chance

by N2D2L Fri May 25, 2018 5:41 pm

naxroy wrote:
DECIMA wrote:
naxroy wrote:its gonna be warm and humid with lot of rain all tournament
Not good news for Nadal, not at all.

not the best conditions for him, still I dont think the first three rounds have players that can take advantage of such conditions against him.

maybe delpo in those conditions in semis could have his chance

Absolutely, if Nadal reaches the semis Del Potro may take him out in these torrential conditions.

by Jahu Fri May 25, 2018 6:59 pm

Delpo is injured, get real man, stop imagining tough opponents for Nadal, there are none till Final, and thats a big if too.

by Emancipator Fri May 25, 2018 8:06 pm

naxroy wrote:

anyway, the draw is what it is, and it can turn harder or easier as players advance.

For that to happen there need to be some good players in the draw in the first place!

Only three players had a chance (slim) of challenging Nadal and they're all on the other side.

by Emancipator Fri May 25, 2018 8:07 pm

Clay is not a surface for surprises, unlike grass or faster hard courts where someone can serve you off the court.

It's gonna take something astonishing for Nadal not to win this year.

by naxroy Fri May 25, 2018 8:32 pm

I am glad you all agree that nadal is far superior to the rest of the field

thats what I thought

now lets see if bets turn real or not

by noleisthebest Fri May 25, 2018 8:56 pm

naxroy wrote:I am glad you all agree that nadal is far superior to the rest of the field

thats what I thought

now lets see if bets turn real or not

If Nadal was superior, he wouldn't need draws to be fixed for him and he also wouldn't need to break a major tennis rule in every single point he plays.

I would be glad if you were able to agree with that, but not holding my breath.

by naxroy Fri May 25, 2018 10:17 pm

lol he had rigged draws 10 times at roland garros, 11 times at montecarlo, 8 times at rome, 5 times in madrid/hamburg...

by noleisthebest Sat May 26, 2018 3:20 pm

Order of play out for tomorrow...and it looks dire!

Goffin will have his work cut out vs Hasse who played very well in Rome.
Also Pouille vs Medvedev, though I don’t know how The Bear plays on clay.
Also of interest the Balkan Boys Band - Dimitrov-Troicki.

I’ll try to see the fearless djevushka, the one and only, Jelena Ostapenko, last on Chatrier. diva

Other than that this looks worse than a 250 event:

https://www.rolandgarros.com/en-us/article/roland-garros-2018-order-of-play-sunday-may-27

by naxroy Sat May 26, 2018 7:29 pm

Nadal will play Bolelli instead of Dolgopolov

by Tenez Sat May 26, 2018 7:50 pm

Dolgo was probably too dangerous for a first round so they replaced him.

by naxroy Sat May 26, 2018 8:49 pm

Tenez wrote:Dolgo was probably too dangerous for a first round so they replaced him.

yeah thats how it goes

by naxroy Sat May 26, 2018 10:23 pm

and delpo is not yet sure to play

by summerblues Sat May 26, 2018 10:45 pm

naxroy wrote:Nadal will play Bolelli instead of Dolgopolov

by summerblues Sat May 26, 2018 10:46 pm

naxroy wrote:and delpo is not yet sure to play

by summerblues Sat May 26, 2018 10:46 pm

...and Zverev will lose tomorrow Sad

by Jahu Sat May 26, 2018 10:48 pm

Rafa is NOT wining this RG, so get some sleep guys.

by naxroy Sat May 26, 2018 10:58 pm

Jahu wrote:Rafa is NOT wining this RG, so get some sleep guys.

probably not, but still, he is favourite

by Jahu Sat May 26, 2018 11:46 pm

Well Carlsberg says probably best lager but it still sucks.

by raiders_of_the_lost_ark Sun May 27, 2018 8:42 am

noleisthebest wrote:
naxroy wrote:I am glad you all agree that nadal is far superior to the rest of the field

thats what I thought

now lets see if bets turn real or not
If Nadal was superior, he wouldn't need draws to be fixed for him and he also wouldn't need to break a major tennis rule in every single point he plays.

I would be glad if you were able to agree with that, but not holding my breath.

I don't belive in this rigging draws, its done open and live.. the only thing they can rig if at all is the semis matchup for the top-4 seeds. We have already seen what is the possible toughest draw for Nadal and yet, he looked like winning through. So why whine about draws .

And besides, Nadal has beaten anyone and everyone out there on clay to think he would need draw rigging to win. You can see from 2005 what draws he passed to start winning TMS and RGs.

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Who is going to knock out Nadal in RG?