Oz open prediction game - Day 12!

Lydian wrote:Not only was it a marathon, they finished at 12:45 local time so that's a nights recovery screwed once Nadal got to bed around 4am. Then he has 24 hrs...Federer has had a day longer to recover from a shorter match. How much more do you guys want it stacked in Federers favour?

Do you think a day can replace 4 years? Fed has the worst 5 sets record amongst champions cause he does not seem to use the substances others do.

I remember when Fed won against all odds Wim12. I thought it was down to an amazing peace of luck (his back was already playing up) and was almost certain it was his last slam.

But since he has had quite a few other finals. Amazing that 5 years on, he still has a chance to win one. I really hope he is going to use all that's possible to win.

Tenez wrote:

NITB wrote:...
And to be relaxed like he's been all tournament.
That'll do.

That's what he says:
"It's gone much better than I thought it would. That's also what I was telling myself in the fifth set. I was talking to myself, saying like, Just relax, man. The comeback is so great already. Let it fly off your racquet and just see what happens.
I think that's the mindset I got to have, as well, in the finals. Sort of a nothing-to-lose mentality. It's been nice these last six matches to have that mentality. It worked very well so I'll keep that up."

That is great to read!
I noticed he looked so fresh and young in the face because of that.

I really hope it carries him to victory on Sunday.

Jahu wrote:

NITB wrote:Mirka is going to be the key for Fed's mindset in the final.
She's the ine that has been encouraging him to keep going and reassuring him he's still good enough to fight for the titles.
Go Mirka!

How? Baby hang in there, baby be strong, baby I wait for you after you win?
Don't think words make a difference when your legs are dead.
So Mirka has no key,  maybe a hole, the key is with Fed, you amateur 

Well yahoo, you clearly have not had a decent woman in your life....

You wanna be the first one? Come on, we can leave tennis at the front door and just enjoy it 

I'm too young for decent woman, for now those with no emotions do the job nicely 

Tenez wrote:I remember when Fed won against all odds Wim12. I thought it was down to an amazing peace of luck (his back was already playing up) and was almost certain it was his last slam.

But since he has had quite a few other finals. Amazing that 5 years on, he still has a chance to win one. I really hope he is going to use all that's possible to win.

He should.
With those arms behind his BH like wings, he is like a phoenix.

I really thought he was finished in Wimbledon.
I am sure he thought the same, too. He really looked like it as he kicked his left leg up with his face in grass.

But here he is!

This time he will need different luck...just that nothing wavers his "relax man!"

Well, I got this match just about spot on.  I was right when I felt Dimi had a shot but, unfortunately, I was also right when I felt that Rafa was still the more likely of the two to win.

Unfortunately, I feel rather certain about the outcome of the final.  I do not see Fed winning, nor do I really see him running Rafa very close.  Most likely I would guess Rafa wins in four sets, but I would not be surprised if it were straight sets either.

The matchup has just always been, and always will be bad for Roger.  Also, in spite of faster conditions this AO, what I have seen from the last few matches, they are still very much dominated by baseline exchanges.  Those exchanges tend to be shorter than in some recent past, but it is still power baseline tennis, and I do not believe Fed will have the energy to take three sets off Rafa that way.

I am not even 100% certain if I will get up to watch.  The match starts 3:30am my time, and I might not even set an alarm clock and only watch if I happen to wake up anyway.

Tenez wrote:That's quite open I think in that 5th set....but regardless it increases Federer's chances !

Will not make any difference.

legendkillar wrote:However, Dimi has done Fed a solid and ran Nadal into the ground. Trying to get that 5 hour marathon out his legs by Sunday will be a miracle.

I agree.  That is how Fed beat Rafa in the AO09 final too.

summerblues wrote:

legendkillar wrote:However, Dimi has done Fed a solid and ran Nadal into the ground. Trying to get that 5 hour marathon out his legs by Sunday will be a miracle.

I agree.  That is how Fed beat Rafa in the AO09 final too.

Yeah because it's 2009 again and neither player has aged.

Hell when it's 2059 and they are both playing in the final in wheelchairs we'll still say it's 2009.

Those courts/balls were discustingly slow in 2009. Nadal could run behind an ace and retrieve it.

That's how Fed was stolen of all those slams for so many years. he develops a game on carpet versus Pete and Goran and then they turn everything into clay..even wimbledon!

Summerblues is correct that the "faster AO" isn't exactly Flash standard. Nadal has been palming back shots all week. He's been doing the same bullshit boring game he always has.  NITB was claiming Nadal was tiring and bluffing, but he was still running like a hyena at the end of the 5 sets and reaching balls -slicing back. YAWN.

That said, this isn't 2009.  Recovery time at 30 isn't like what it is in early to mid twenties.  But that's balanced by the fact Federer is 35 too to some extent.  

You have to give Nadal the biggest edge because of Federer's weakness mentally against him.  Nadal is a bad match up for Federer for all the reasons we know (including being a leftie).  I have a cousin who kept beating me at snooker - usually with the last 3 balls (blue pink black... 18 points lol).  It happened relentlessly.  And after a while, I expected it to happen. And I couldn't pot those last balls for toffee.  It even spread to other sports because he got inside my head.  Until I started beating him consistently at other sports, I had a monkey on my back and felt something was going to go wrong, or he was going to win, every single game I played.  IT IS NOT A NICE FEELING.  And it's VERY hard to overcome.  

Federer would have benefited massively if he hadn't have played all those damn clay matches against Nadal - as he himself admits.  As I said before, we've all seen Federer play great tennis (the best tennis) all tournament, only for him to fall away like wet tissue paper against Djok/Nadal in the final. He doesn't get these nerves against ANY other player. That's likely the biggest reason why his H2H in slams is so good against Murray.

That said, there is a sense that this Federer means business and is going to just go for it freely and not succumb to the usual timidness.  We will have to see. It's also true this isn't the same Nadal as old.

Is Serena gonna give this second set to Venus, as a good sis? She just got broken for no reason.

Ok Serena wins.

Daniel wrote:Summerblues is correct that the "faster AO" isn't exactly Flash standard. Nadal has been palming back shots all week. He's been doing the same bullshit boring game he always has.  

Yes but unlike his successful years he doesn't stand nearly as far back nowadays. If that was the case he woudl lose very convincingly.

He said in 2015 he had to stand closer...and now he can by his own standards anyway.

Daniel wrote:Summerblues is correct that the "faster AO" isn't exactly Flash standard. Nadal has been palming back shots all week. He's been doing the same bullshit boring game he always has.  NITB was claiming Nadal was tiring and bluffing, but he was still running like a hyena at the end of the 5 sets and reaching balls -slicing back. YAWN.

That said, this isn't 2009.  Recovery time at 30 isn't like what it is in early to mid twenties.  But that's balanced by the fact Federer is 35 too to some extent.  

You have to give Nadal the biggest edge because of Federer's weakness mentally against him.  Nadal is a bad match up for Federer for all the reasons we know (including being a leftie).  I have a cousin who kept beating me at snooker - usually with the last 3 balls (blue pink black... 18 points lol).  It happened relentlessly.  And after a while, I expected it to happen. And I couldn't pot those last balls for toffee.  It even spread to other sports because he got inside my head.  Until I started beating him consistently at other sports, I had a monkey on my back and felt something was going to go wrong, or he was going to win, every single game I played.  IT IS NOT A NICE FEELING.  And it's VERY hard to overcome.  

Federer would have benefited massively if he hadn't have played all those damn clay matches against Nadal - as he himself admits.  As I said before, we've all seen Federer play great tennis (the best tennis) all tournament, only for him to fall away like wet tissue paper against Djok/Nadal in the final. He doesn't get these nerves against ANY other player. That's likely the biggest reason why his H2H in slams is so good against Murray.

That said, there is a sense that this Federer means business and is going to just go for it freely and not succumb to the usual timidness.  We will have to see. It's also true this isn't the same Nadal as old.

Well, Nadal is clearly fitter than ever. Or Dimi's attacking game  did not drain him as much as Nole's vamos-tamos tactics (to move Nadal around from side to side and make him run).

I would like to see stats of how many kms he covered in that match. And compare it to say, match vs Djokovic in that 2012 final.

The fact Nadal went into the match with his old (though tried and tested) 4m behind the baseline tactics says a lot about what he thought if Dimi prior the match.

Dimi was unlucky, and as he says, experience won.

I now see him as head and shoulders above both Nishi and Raonic. He'll jump in ranking very soon. He plays really well on grass, too.


Shame Pouille was injured, this court&balls would've been beautiful for him, but then again, he was not in Nadal's half of the draw this time

vamos-tamos hahahah lepo