Oz open prediction game - Day 12!

Joker and correct sets for singles.

Rafael Nadal [20] vs. Grigor Dimitrov (BUL) [45] 

Samantha Stosur-Sam Groth (16) vs. Sania Mirza-Ivan Dodig [2]


Andrea Hlavackova-Shuai Peng [12] vs.Bethanie Mattek-Sands-Lucie Safarova  [2]

Elina Svitolina-Chris Guccione (12) vs.Abigail Spears-Juan Sebastian Cabal (12)

Does anyone here believe Dimi can win tomorrow?
What is the best case scenario for him?
A set, two.....?

I just have a feeling he will be very stubborn.

That's all.

I believe he can win.  I think so far Nadal's opposition may as well have been handpicked (with the exception of Zverev, maybe).  He's faced no-one who has the talent, all round game, and bottle to challenge him.  Until now.  Dimitrov is the first test he has got.  People basing Nadal's chances on his matches so far are missing the point.

That said, Dimitrov is no dominant force. He's been a grave disappointment so far in his career (like Raonic) and is far from the hardest SF opponent Nadal could have gotten (Wawrinka / Murray / Nishikori would have provided a much better test) - but he can do it.

If Dimitrov wants to show he's a future Slam champion, he has to start beating the best soon.  Here's his chance.

It's extremely difficult to call this one.  But I am going to call Dimitrov.

NITB wrote:Does anyone here believe Dimi can win tomorrow?
What is the best case scenario for him?
A set, two.....?

I do.  I am not saying he is the favorite - he is not.  But I think he has a much better chance than most people are giving him.  I have not been impressed with what I have seen from Rafa, and I think Dimi has been playing fairly well.  He should be a tougher test than Raonic was (in spite of his SHBH), and Raonic almost won a set off Rafa.

If you put a gun to my head, I would still pick Rafa, but I do think Dimi has a very realistic chance.

Go Grisha!

I'm sure Dimi will cause problems for Rafa. And he looks superfit so he's not going to roll over after 2,5 hours. 
If Dimi gets 1 out of the first 2 sets, we could be heading for a big surprise. 

Still it's 60/40 in Nadals favor.

Rafael 4 joker
. Sania Mirza-Ivan Dodig in 2
Bethanie Mattek-Sands-Lucie Safarova in 2

Elina Svitolina-Chris Guccione (12) in 2

Id say 85% Nadal 15% Dimi. In fact I seriously doubt Dimi has any chance at all. Its going to be very simple for Nadal: everything on the BH like the "good old days". Which means Dimi will have to do miles of running. Plus knowing he plays for his first slam final will make him nervous. In fact i m not sure why I gave him a set in my above post.

Though i d love to be wrong. We need a minimum of 5 tight sets.

summerblues wrote:

NITB wrote:Does anyone here believe Dimi can win tomorrow?
What is the best case scenario for him?
A set, two.....?

I do.  I am not saying he is the favorite - he is not.  But I think he has a much better chance than most people are giving him.  I have not been impressed with what I have seen from Rafa, and I think Dimi has been playing fairly well.  He should be a tougher test than Raonic was (in spite of his SHBH), and Raonic almost won a set off Rafa.

If you put a gun to my head, I would still pick Rafa, but I do think Dimi has a very realistic chance.

Go Grisha!

Is it that bad in the US?!!!


Well, as a longstanding Dimi fan - I hope your hunch is valid.

I just wish for a close match, something to give us hope...not the 3 set submission.

You remember how Dimi didn't want to go to WTF2015 as a "reserve"...I thought that was a pathetic attitude.

I hope he's overcome that stage.

My main worry for him is his BH, such a long swing, so little power.
Probably the weakest SBH on tour.

Daniel wrote: I believe he can win.  I think so far Nadal's opposition may as well have been handpicked (with the exception of Zverev, maybe).  He's faced no-one who has the talent, all round game, and bottle to challenge him.  Until now.  Dimitrov is the first test he has got.  People basing Nadal's chances on his matches so far are missing the point.

That said, Dimitrov is no dominant force. He's been a grave disappointment so far in his career (like Raonic) and is far from the hardest SF opponent Nadal could have gotten (Wawrinka / Murray / Nishikori would have provided a much better test) - but he can do it.

If Dimitrov wants to show he's a future Slam champion, he has to start beating the best soon.  Here's his chance.

It's extremely difficult to call this one.  But I am going to call Dimitrov.

I believe I can fly, too. .

The question is, does Dimi have anything to make Nadal nervous and start making errors?

No, Dimitrov has no chance. He flatters to deceive and was fortunate Istomin ran out of energy.

Nadal in 3, dispiriting, sets.

Nadal in 4 (joker), Dodig, Safa, Cabal
Bulge: Rafa in 4 (joker), groth, peng, svit,
T: dimi in 5 (joker), groth, peng, spears
OK: Rafa in 4 (joker), dodig, mattek, gucc

You're all overplaying Nadal's form because of his prior results and underplaying Dimitrov - same as the betting public at large again.  Don't be surprised if you're wrong.  I'll be surprised if it's straight 3 for sure.  If it is, Dimitrov may as well retire.

Nadal used to need 5 or 6 FHs to win a point....now a couple max.

Daniel wrote:You're all overplaying Nadal's form because of his prior results and underplaying Dimitrov - same as the betting public at large again.  Don't be surprised if you're wrong.  I'll be surprised if it's straight 3 for sure.  If it is, Dimitrov may as well retire.

There's a reason Dimitrov is 15th seed at what should be close to the peak of his career.

Murray or Djoko woudl beat this Nadal....but no SHBH can. He is starting to loop more again as he knows this is teh key against those talented players.

It's so easy for nadal...and it is probably going to get easier.

I hope Dimi can win this set.

That may start to make Nadal nervous.

Nadal looks beatable on this court.

I liked this Valvedou look caught on camera: come on, how long is Nadal taking between the points?

The next step is to yell it out like I did in RG...

It's amazing how much muscle Nadal is able to put on his serve.
So little timing and placement.

Can we call it percentage serve?

Tenez wrote:Murray or Djoko woudl beat this Nadal....but no SHBH can. He is starting to loop more again as he knows this is teh key against those talented players.

You're right!

I never thought he'd do it again.
Fed should be able to exploit it because this is a fast court...if Nadal stands this far back.

Dimi can't play fast tempo like Fed can, his groundstroke swings esp BH are so long and slow.

I think his serve serves him well. The aim to make it very spiny so difficult to time and attack.

bogbrush wrote:No, Dimitrov has no chance. He flatters to deceive and was fortunate Istomin ran out of energy.

Nadal in 3, dispiriting, sets.

BB,

what is the night sky like in Iceland?

I am a bit of a stargazer, but have never been that far up north. Has the pollution done the damage there, too?

I'd love to go to this place:

http://www.tourismontheedge.com/crazy-accommodation/igloo_village_hotel_kakslautta

Anyone been?

That FH miss in that BH is typical of having to play within within the rules.

GO DIMI GOOOOOOO!!!!

Tenez wrote:That FH miss in that BH is typical of having to play within within the rules.

Will Pascal Maria have the guts to warn him 2,3,4 more times?

NITB wrote:

bogbrush wrote:No, Dimitrov has no chance. He flatters to deceive and was fortunate Istomin ran out of energy.

Nadal in 3, dispiriting, sets.

BB,

what is the night sky like in Iceland?

I am a bit of a stargazer, but have never been that far up north. Has the pollution done the damage there, too?

I'd love to go to this place:

http://www.tourismontheedge.com/crazy-accommodation/igloo_village_hotel_kakslautta

Anyone been?

Not seen it properly yet, 1st night and Reykjavik is a city with lights etc.

I do know it's dark until 9am!!

Great hold for Dimi!

Dimi is so much better than Raonic.

Good to see Dimi trust his FH!

Dimi has the fitness to drain and grind Nadal, he does not need to rush, but does he know it?

I like how he is playing, just a matter of execution and keeping a cool head.

And with 2 DFs, he surrends the break.

Says a lot what's going on in his head.

Still, he will not cave in, though he was a bit like that last year. Hopefully he still knows he is playing for a place in the slam final!!!

lol this current generation are a bunch of mental midgets. A guy back from injury at the age of 35 has more fight, drive, and ability than they do.  If Dimitrov loses this set, it's pathetic.

Oh hang on....

No, I was right the first time.  Dimitrov is a midget.  Wow.  How ridiculous.

Daniel wrote:lol this current generation are a bunch of mental midgets. A guy back from injury at the age of 35 has more fight, drive, and ability than they do.  If Dimitrov loses this set, it's pathetic.

Agree.

Let's where Nadal's confidence is now in general as well as in this match....was choking all last year in this kind of situations.

Serving to stay in the set.

Dimitrov doing his very best to lose this set.  Never seen so many chances thrown away.

Somewhere Hawkeye is waking up from her self imposed 606V2 exile ready to pounce with her usual drivel now Nadal is winning...

Daniel wrote:Dimitrov doing his very best to lose this set.  Never seen so many chances thrown away.

He is doing well.
This is vintage Nadal.
Look how hard he is hitting the ball.

Hasn't been here in ages either.  Runs off when going gets tough.

NITB wrote:

Daniel wrote:Dimitrov doing his very best to lose this set.  Never seen so many chances thrown away.

He is doing well.
This is vintage Nadal.
Look how hard he is hitting the ball.

4 set points to save?  2 breaks down?

lol.  No it isn't.  It's Dimitrov playing like a clown.

Dimitrov every bit as mentally useless as the rest of them. 2/8 on BP's.

Daniel wrote:

NITB wrote:

Daniel wrote:Dimitrov doing his very best to lose this set.  Never seen so many chances thrown away.

He is doing well.
This is vintage Nadal.
Look how hard he is hitting the ball.

4 set points to save?  2 breaks down?

lol.  No it isn't.  It's Dimitrov playing like a clown.

C'mon Daniel, give some credit to Nadal...

NITB wrote:

Daniel wrote:

NITB wrote:

Daniel wrote:Dimitrov doing his very best to lose this set.  Never seen so many chances thrown away.

He is doing well.
This is vintage Nadal.
Look how hard he is hitting the ball.

4 set points to save?  2 breaks down?

lol.  No it isn't.  It's Dimitrov playing like a clown.

C'mon Daniel, give some credit to Nadal...

You are talking out of your arse, and you know it.

This will go to TB where Dimitrov won't find the court with any shot!

Anyone think mental midget Dimitrov can win the breaker? I don't.  he will probably fall apart completely.  Like Raonic does (even with his amazing serve).

2 BP's! Let's see...

Nadal loses his bottle!

What more incentive does Federer need. He must be relishing this.

FINALLY!

At least I was right that he'd win a set lol.  But I'm afraid I can't put Dimitrov as the winner anymore.  Not with all these shanks and mental lapses.