TOP 4 before USO

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raiders_of_the_lost_ark wrote:Fine then. We will see how it turns out to be. My take would be, it won't matter whose half Murray/Delpo falls in.

It has had so much influence though in teh last 3 years at teh USO that I am surprised you think it won;t.

In my view:

- Fed lost 2009 because of his semi v Djoko. Delpo had an easy semi v Nadal who was maybe injured (abdomen)

- 2010 was lost by Djoko due to his semi v Federer (you might even want to think that Fed lost that semi because of not wanting to play Nadal tired on HC). Nadal had an easy semi v Youshny cause Murray went out.

- 2011 was lost by Federer cause he again played Djoko. Had he played Murray while Nadal and Djoko were having long rallies in their semi, Fed would have had a great chance to win v Nadal or Djoko in the final.



I think more than anywhere else, the draw is extremely important at the USO..even if it is no guarantee who i sgoing to reach teh semi.

It's debatable really what is more important, your opponent in the semi or whether or not you play the first or second. Obviously having the tougher opponent in the second semi is almost synonymous of losing the final, but I'd rather have Murray in the first semi than DelPo in the second or DelPo in the first than Murray in the second. If I have the first semi and I'm Fed, I'm happy. Obviously as Murray seems more of a challenge to Djoko than DelPo or Ferrer, if I'm Fed I'm praying to see Murray in Djoko's half but if I was given the choice between choosing my opponent or my SF slot, especially in Nadal's absence, I'd go for the choice of the slot, no hesitation!

Tenez wrote:

raiders_of_the_lost_ark wrote:Fine then. We will see how it turns out to be. My take would be, it won't matter whose half Murray/Delpo falls in.

It has had so much influence though in teh last 3 years at teh USO that I am surprised you think it won;t.

In my view:

- Fed lost 2009 because of his semi v Djoko. Delpo had an easy semi v Nadal who was maybe injured (abdomen)

- 2010 was lost by Djoko due to his semi v Federer (you might even want to think that Fed lost that semi because of not wanting to play Nadal tired on HC). Nadal had an easy semi v Youshny cause Murray went out.

- 2011 was lost by Federer cause he again played Djoko. Had he played Murray while Nadal and Djoko were having long rallies in their semi, Fed would have had a great chance to win v Nadal or Djoko in the final.

I think more than anywhere else, the draw is extremely important at the USO..even if it is no guarantee who i sgoing to reach teh semi.

I won't say Fed lost USopen 2009 because of match Vs. Djo. A 1.5 h of match doesn't drain him so much. I think he lost because he lost his focus, he allowed too many things to annoy him and distract him. Plus Delpo was firing bullets by the end of the 4th set. That was one match that he shouldn't have lost and he said it himself.

The only finals I think he might have lost due to a gruelling semis was
1. Rome 2006, he had a tough win against Nalbandian in semis. Perhaps it did start to affect him in that long match by the 5th set.
2. Shanghai 2010 finals. He had to beat Djo in a tough match after his painful loss in the US open semis.
3. The most clear loss due to fatigue of the the semis was the Olympics2012 final. He moved like a rock, his shots lacked power and just couldn't do much despite trying. Murray out-powered him.

Also I said it won't matter whose half Murray/Delpo falls in due to the following reasons:

1. Delpo is injured, its a left wrist injury and it will have to take more than 1 week to heal. I won't be surprised if Delpo too pulls out of US open. Even if he plays, he is likely to lose early or retire. Even if somehow he reaches the Qf. Murray, Djo and Fed will take him out easily. If he Meets Ferrer, then even fit Delpo will be down on his knees and it doesn't even need it to be clay. Ferrer is his worst match.

2. Murray consistency in reaching slam is there in last year and half, but he on almost all those occasions he came to the brink of losing very early, but just survived, barely. People may suggest he is now a different player with lendl on the side and this OG. But I won't say that. Its too short a time to draw out anything like that. My opinion on Murray has been built on years of watching him. Thats why I say his presence won't have much affect on who wins US open. Murray's presence hasn't even affected on the outcome of any GS win.

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noleisthebest wrote:rotla,

Delpo was blasting that ball during the entire match, you know how he makes that sound when he rally bashes the ball. There was no let up from him.
At the end of the day, it's the left wrist, not right, so not that bad. I think it's more him taking pressure off than the injury that did the talk.
I think he'll play USO 100% esp now that he has secured number 8 ranking.
I don't see him winning this year, but he may last fit and strong until the quarters and be a banana skin for someone.

Its a left wrist I agree, but its required for hitting the backhand, especially when he has a DHBH. He is not Nadal or Murray who will make epic saga about his injuries. He didn't even say his injury affected him in his loss to Fed in RG Qf. when it was so clear that his movement was getting hampered as the match went on. In fact he specifically said his injury wasn't the reason for his loss. So I think if he looks injured and also talks about injuries, it must be serious. Or he wouldn't have shown any bit of it or at least not spoken about it.

I want him to play, but if he withdrew from playing almost the whole year when he was in top-4, getting to top-8 isn't much of a motivation. Still I think he will play.

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sphairistike wrote:It's debatable really what is more important, your opponent in the semi or whether or not you play the first or second.

That's a fair point but Having Youshny first or second will never be as painful as having Murray or Djoko to play in teh semi. What is really taxing in tennis are the length and pace of teh rallies. Nadal Murray and Djoko are great at killing each other physically....and killing Federer in the process.

Federer talks very well about it in his sunday post match interview. He says something short but crucial about How Djoko started to throw a few physical rallies in teh TB. When on form, he plays many like those and almost always end up the winner of teh match...against anybody.

raiders_of_the_lost_ark wrote:I won't say Fed lost USopen 2009 because of match Vs. Djo. A 1.5 h of match doesn't drain him so much. I think he lost because he lost his focus, he allowed too many things to annoy him and distract him. Plus Delpo was firing bullets by the end of the 4th set. That was one match that he shouldn't have lost and he said it himself.

He lost his focus a bit but why? he was H&S better than Delpo that evening. 1.5H of intense tennis with long and furious rallies versus Djoko with no day rest is certainly no stroll in the park...especially at the end of a slam. If you look at that period Fed lost a few TMS finals after having played a semi v Djoko.....out of memory (Torronto 09) a few weeks before and SHanghai were he played really well to beat Djoko and then got creamed by Murray in teh final....but I am sure there are other examples.

Tenez wrote:

raiders_of_the_lost_ark wrote:I won't say Fed lost USopen 2009 because of match Vs. Djo. A 1.5 h of match doesn't drain him so much. I think he lost because he lost his focus, he allowed too many things to annoy him and distract him. Plus Delpo was firing bullets by the end of the 4th set. That was one match that he shouldn't have lost and he said it himself.

He lost his focus a bit but why? he was H&S better than Delpo that evening. 1.5H of intense tennis with long and furious rallies versus Djoko with no day rest is certainly no stroll in the park...especially at the end of a slam. If you look at that period Fed lost a few TMS finals after having played a semi v Djoko.....out of memory (Torronto 09) a few weeks before and SHanghai were he played really well to beat Djoko and then got creamed by Murray in teh final....but I am sure there are other examples.

Furious rallys in that semis match? Did I miss something? That match didn't have enough long and furious rallys for it to start affecting Fed in the next match. Agree he didn't have an extra day of rest like Delpo, but 1.5h is not so unusual even for a masters which don't have any day of rest. He lost his focus perhaps just because he was getting too annoyed with a mixture of things:
1. Delpo's long time taken in calling for hawkeye reviews. And the Umpires allowing it despite Fed's protests.
2. He missed some chances and he started to feel frustrated.
3. He maybe hadn't expected Delpo to come up with the kind of resistance. The same year on hard courts of AO Fed had double-baggled him.
4. Emotionally drained after a very eventful year.

Yes if you looked at the semi, it was a very intense match, mentally and physically for federer who played very well but as ever Djoko tires him. Look at the USO11 semi. Federer played 2 great sets, and then was tired for the next 2 ...even the 5th.

Look at the way he lost the 5th set v Delpo USO09....also completely nackered at the end. To be that tired at teh end, he must have been a bit in the first sets too. I do think he could have won had he kept that focus, I agree, but had he been fresher, I don't think Delpo could hacve started a come back.

Delpo's shots required Federer to be extremely fit. Could not afford to be one step behind, otherwise fed would be asked to run even more...and this is exactly what happened. While Federer was still fresh, he made Delpo run and won easily almost having 2 breaks up for a 2 sets to love. Once he started to tire, then Delpo killed him physically...most obvious in set 4 and 5.