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Post by gallery play on Fri Oct 11, 2013 12:08 pm

Just realized that Federer has beaten just one top ten player this year, and that's already 9 months ago (Tsonga AO, after 5 tough sets). The highest ranked player he has beaten is Haas..

How bizar is that? 


To put things in perspective:
Federer won a record 26 consecutive matches against top ten ranked opponents.The streak lasted for 16 months (October 2003 – January 2005), when he lost to Safin in a semifinal of the AO Federer also holds the second longest winning streak against top ten opponents of 17 (2006–07).
And:
From 2004 through 2006, Federer won 94.3% of his singles matches (247–15)

Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_career_achievements_by_Roger_Federer#Other_selected_achievements

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Post by DEC1M8 on Fri Oct 11, 2013 12:43 pm

Federer has declined from 2012 to 2013, that much is clear.

I hope he comes back strongly for 2014, if he gets some confidence back I still think he can be a handful to deal with.

Tenez, do you now accept that Federer is declining? It's more than his back injury... his game is simply not as precise as it was before.

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Post by Tenez on Fri Oct 11, 2013 4:27 pm

Yes really bizarre. Was he close to beat higher players? not that often was he?


js wrote:Tenez, do you now accept that Federer is declining? It's more than his back injury... his game is simply not as precise as it was before.
Ehh??? So a back injury could not be enough to explain a drop of form? Funny to hear from the fan whose player doesn't even enter a tournament when he thinks he might sneeze.

We know one thing pretty sure is that he has had back problem. Now I do not think there is one person on earth who can spot how is game is affected by his back (including the effect in confidence and proper training) and/or aging....at just 32.

Many players had to stop their career early because of back: Mecir, Rios, Leconte, Nalby, etc....and Fed managed to play quite far with this problem (remember he had already some in 2003!!!) and pretty bad ones from 2007 onwards.

I am not desperate to see him win anything from now....but I just regret not seeing him in full form cause I believe that in shot making terms....he woudl be better now than ever (certainly in theory) but the game has gone so physical that it is unlikely we will see the best of his skills. That's all I regret though I could even see some of it this year despite his very poor results.





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Post by DEC1M8 on Fri Oct 11, 2013 6:07 pm

Tenez wrote: So a back injury could not be enough to explain a drop of form?
Hmmm, yes possible. I can't rule that out 100%.
However I am of the opinion that even if Federer's back was ok, his game still would not be as good as in his prime as he has declined.


Funny to hear from the fan whose player doesn't even enter a tournament when he thinks he might sneeze.
Look, sneezing is very dangerous ok?
Especially on hard courts.

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Post by summerblues on Sat Oct 12, 2013 12:53 am

gallery play wrote:Just realized that Federer has beaten just one top ten player this year, and that's already 9 months ago (Tsonga AO, after 5 tough sets). The highest ranked player he has beaten is Haas..

How bizar is that? 


To put things in perspective:
Federer won a record 26 consecutive matches against top ten ranked opponents.The streak lasted for 16 months (October 2003 – January 2005), when he lost to Safin in a semifinal of the AO Federer also holds the second longest winning streak against top ten opponents of 17 (2006–07).
And:
From 2004 through 2006, Federer won 94.3% of his singles matches (247–15)
I do not think it is so bizarre, plenty of players have slipped a lot by his age - including plenty of great players.  He is at an age where - if things go well - a player can still do very well (like say Agassi) but where - if things go not so well - many players will have declined significantly.

It would be nice if he can still turn it around for another year or two of good results, but not too shocking or bizarre (at least not for me) if the slide continues.

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Post by gallery play on Sat Oct 12, 2013 9:41 am

Personally i expected him to do better at the BO3 tournaments, to see him slide this fast surprises me.
But like T said, with a healthy back it would have been a different story.

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Post by Tenez on Sat Oct 12, 2013 1:09 pm

Maybe he is declining too but there is little to believe that he would.

We have been conditioned for years that a tennis player peaked at 27 but as I explained many times that is essentially due to new generation and technology which has constantly changed significantly since the open era. We could see that when technology was pretty stable and competition being a steady flow, the life of a player was much longer.

It's like those saying Fed declined since 2006 cause that is when he started to lose versus Nadal, then Murray and Djoko. In tennis the opposition is a huge factor. They also improve significantly. It's not all down to the top player (look how Monfils got close to Djoko in the next round. Now margins are even thinner and a bad back could in itself easily explain those results. Especially against players of same age who now get close or beat him (ie Robredo, Haas).

Don't people find it strange that Robredo gets better (even after injury) while Fed declines simply quicker than Haas and Rob?

I think his back has played a huge role....on his game, his prep and his mind...His serve is clearly badly affected by it.

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Post by Tenez on Sat Oct 12, 2013 2:34 pm

And just watching at the Nadal/Djoko match, one realises how much tougher the level is nowadays compared to Fed's "peak" years.

Nadal is playing much "better" now than in the 00s and already then Fed had trouble with him.

If fed had not improved....he would have had Hewitt or Nalby's results.

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Post by DEC1M8 on Sat Oct 12, 2013 2:56 pm

Tenez wrote:And just watching at the Nadal/Djoko match, one realises how much tougher the level is nowadays compared to Fed's "peak" years.
Fair point.

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Post by noleisthebest on Sat Oct 12, 2013 4:48 pm

Tenez wrote:Maybe he is declining too but there is little to believe that he would.

We have been conditioned for years that a tennis player peaked at 27 but as I explained many times that is essentially due to new generation and technology which has constantly changed significantly since the open era. We could see that when technology was pretty stable and competition being a steady flow, the life of a player was much longer.

It's like those saying Fed declined since 2006 cause that is when he started to lose versus Nadal, then Murray and Djoko. In tennis the opposition is a huge factor. They also improve significantly. It's not all down to the top player (look how Monfils got close to Djoko in the next round. Now margins are even thinner and a bad back could in itself easily explain those results. Especially against players of same age who now get close or beat him (ie Robredo, Haas).

Don't people find it strange that Robredo gets better (even after injury) while Fed declines simply quicker than Haas and Rob?

I think his back has played a huge role....on his game, his prep and his mind...His serve is clearly badly affected by it.
Very good point.

In that respect, Fed's talent peaked/shone brigtest when he beat Nole in that RG SF and ended his Steak (although nerves did get to Nole in that match).
That was the same Nole that Nadal could do nothing to in 7 finals that year.

2012 and recapturing number one in THAT era just cemented it for those who had the eyes to see.

Sadly, his back must have paid the price and his flow was stopped firstly by reduced schedule which did not bring the desired results, then the confidence that started to be chipped away little by little, culminating with Wimbledon loss.

Watching him against Monfils (from 3:3 in the first set to the end of that set, and just the last 2 games of the match), you could see how badly he wanted to win.
At one stage I felt sorry for Monfils, because linesmen were so bad, they stole at least 3-4 clean lines from him. Even Hawkeye was rigged for one point, it was so embarrassing.
Federer saw it as well and at one desperate moment called for HE even when the out was obvious, but it was too much of an ask for that exact point.
You could also see how badly his confidence had been shot to bits, his shot selection gave it all away: he played safe when he didn't need to and   went for the lines also when he didn't need to.
His game which needs fine-tuning like nobody else's really showed rust of the lack of match play, how many has he played since Wimbledon, 3-4,5?
It showed particularly in his movement which lacked its trademark nimbleness, all signs of the lack of matches.

Shame he ran into Monfils who was probably the worst opponent for him...

I just hope he continues to believe.
He is a deeply emotional player and the losses must hurt and eat out whatever's left of his confidence. But we all know how much he loves tennis and that he'll keep on going long after a lot of his fans stop believing.

Not this one smiley

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Post by Tenez on Sat Oct 12, 2013 8:13 pm

Yes NITB, I think we will find out soon whether his condition can improve. I don't think he will carry on playing if he cannot play his game. ..even though I believe his ego can take the losses actually pretty easily. He is more interested in what he can win more than who he loses to....I am pretty sure.

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