US Open Prediction Game: Rules

by N2D2L Fri Aug 30, 2013 12:56 am

US Open Prediction Game:

I noticed ROTLA did not do one this time, so I thought I may as well fill in.

The rules are very simple, I will select 5 matches and you can predict you think you will win!
To continue ROTLA's tradition of higher points for riskier picks, I will give more points to an underdog pick winning. There are no negative points (also unlike ROTLA's thing you don't get negative points for missing out a day).

An example:
Federer (1) vs Benneteau (9)

Picking Federer and winning gives you 1 point.
If you pick Benneteau and he wins you get 9 points.
Pretty simple, and no negative points Winking

by summerblues Fri Aug 30, 2013 4:43 am

Julia Santamaria wrote:you don't get negative points for missing out a day

I have no hope of entering every day so I like this rule.

Haas
Chardy
Seppi
Baghdatis
Hewitt

by noleisthebest Fri Aug 30, 2013 10:38 am

How is the winner being determined?

by Tenez Fri Aug 30, 2013 11:17 am

Haas (2)
Benneteau
Seppi (2)
Baghdatis (7)
Del Potro

by N2D2L Fri Aug 30, 2013 11:41 am

noleisthebest wrote:How is the winner being determined?

Person with the most points at the end of the two weeks Winking

If you are behind, or have missed a day or something, you can actually catch up pretty quickly in this game; the only caveat is you have to take risks... and they have to pay off.

by N2D2L Fri Aug 30, 2013 11:42 am

OK quick announcement:
This thread I will use just to keep the scores. Like we used to have normally, I'll set up a match thread for each day, and show the fixtures there- so you can pick on those match day threads (I think this is more convenient).

This thread will be used centrally to keep scores, day by day in the comments; and the overall score in the article.

by noleisthebest Fri Aug 30, 2013 11:42 am

Do you also lose points if the player you choose does not win?

by N2D2L Fri Aug 30, 2013 11:43 am

noleisthebest wrote:Do you also lose points if the player you choose does not win?

Nope, just to reiterate what I said in the article: No negative points Winking

by noleisthebest Fri Aug 30, 2013 11:44 am

Julia Santamaria wrote:
noleisthebest wrote:Do you also lose points if the player you choose does not win?
Nope, just to reiterate what I said in the article: No negative points

That defies the point of risk taking completely!

by N2D2L Fri Aug 30, 2013 11:47 am

noleisthebest wrote:
Julia Santamaria wrote:
noleisthebest wrote:Do you also lose points if the player you choose does not win?
Nope, just to reiterate what I said in the article: No negative points
That defies the point of risk taking completely!

Well you get more points for picking riskier people,
for example today if you pick Hewitt to win you get 9 points, but if Tenez picks Del Potro he'll only get 1 point.

So you get +8 compared to Tenez for your win.

Does that make sense? Apologies if not.

by noleisthebest Fri Aug 30, 2013 11:53 am

So what's stopping us all for choosing riskier players every day?

by N2D2L Fri Aug 30, 2013 12:17 pm

Nothing, there's nothing stopping you picking any players at any time!

You have to consider though, who will win? If you pick a risky player, and he doesn't win- you miss out on the points you would have got if picking the player who did win.
Best tactic that I use is: simply pick who you think is going to win! If two players are close in your eyes, pick the one who will get more points.

by noleisthebest Fri Aug 30, 2013 12:26 pm

Mmmm....your system takes all the fun out of it, it's too safe, a bit like Nadal's tennis...

by N2D2L Fri Aug 30, 2013 12:32 pm

Which aspect of it is too safe NITB, not sure I understand.
Surely if you have equal points for all players it would be safe, as you could just pick the players who are bookies favourite each time.
Through this system you get rewarded more for riskier picks paying off.

Is there something I'm missing?

by noleisthebest Fri Aug 30, 2013 12:38 pm

Julia Santamaria wrote:Which aspect of it is too safe NITB, not sure I understand.
Surely if you have equal points for all players it would be safe, as you could just pick the players who are bookies favourite each time.
Through this system you get rewarded more for riskier picks paying off.

Is there something I'm missing?

When rotla was doing the game, you'd lose the points if the player you chose lost, so if I choose Hewitt and he wins I get 9 points, but if he loses, then I lose 9 points.
The whole idea of risk is that there is no safety net.

by N2D2L Fri Aug 30, 2013 1:08 pm

In that case surely you'd just stick to picking the favourite everytime??
So according to you if you pick a high risk player, you not only have less chance of winning (according to bookies), but also risk losing a lot of points. Surely then you would just avoid picking the risky players totally?

Anyway that's not how ROTLA's game worked I'm pretty sure, it was different to how you described it.

by N2D2L Fri Aug 30, 2013 1:10 pm

Anyway time to stop emulating the great Uncle Toni with his moaning, and start picking!

If you don't understand the rules of the game, I take blame for poor explanations, but I think the majority understand it and I'm sure you will get the hang of it after a day or so!

by noleisthebest Fri Aug 30, 2013 3:17 pm

Julia Santamaria wrote:In that case surely you'd just stick to picking the favourite everytime??
So according to you if you pick a high risk player, you not only have less chance of winning (according to bookies), but also risk losing a lot of points. Surely then you would just avoid picking the risky players totally?

Anyway that's not how ROTLA's game worked I'm pretty sure, it was different to how you described it.

This is what it looked like last year:

raiders_of_the_lost_ark wrote:Results Day 5:

LF, forgot to predict the matches for yesterday. It was miss. But I've seen ( not here on this forum) this also being used tactically by some just to avoid a possible negative. Missing a day means you get negatives for all matches i.e. all incorrect predictions.

1. [7] J del Potro (ARG) d R Harrison (USA) 62 63 26 62

rotla: 7
tenez: -7
nitb: 7
laverfan: 0 ( -7 penalty )
wow: 7
sphairistike: 7
SR: 7

---------------

[9] J Isner (USA) d J Nieminen (FIN) 63 67(5) 64 63

rotla: -9
tenez: 9
nitb: 9
laverfan: 0 ( -9 penalty )
wow: 9
sphairistike: 9
SR: 9

--------------------
S Johnson (USA) d E Gulbis (LAT) 67(3) 76(5) 63 64

rotla: 33
tenez: -33
nitb: -33
laverfan: 0 ( -33 penalty )
wow: -33
sphairistike: -33
SR: -33

-------------------
[14] A Dolgopolov (UKR) d M Baghdatis (CYP) 64 36 60 76(5)

rotla: -14
tenez: -14
nitb: 14
laverfan: 0 ( -14 penalty )
wow: 14
sphairistike: 14
SR: 14
-------------------

[20] A Roddick (USA) d B Tomic (AUS) 63 64 60

rotla: -20
tenez: -20
nitb: -20
laverfan: 0 ( -20 penalty )
wow: 20
sphairistike: 20
SR: 20
--------------
L Hewitt (AUS) d G Muller (LUX) 36 76(5) 67(5) 75 64

rotla: 33
tenez: 33
nitb: 33
laverfan: 0 ( -33 penalty )
wow: -33
sphairistike: 33
SR: 33
---------------

Standings as on 1-Sep-2012:

Points:
rotla:5 + 30 = 35
tenez: 131 -32 = 99
nitb: 251 + 10 = 261
laverfan: 122 ( 122 -116 = 6 after penalty )
wow: 105 -16 = 89
sphairistike: 199 + 50 = 249
SR: 50

Sorry laverfan, if I had taken 0 for all your selections, it would have been unfair to tenez and wow who lost points today.

--------------------

No. of correct predictions

rotla: 11/18 + 3/6 = 14/24 + 3/6 = 17/30
tenez: 13/18 + 4/6 = 17/24 + 2/6 = 19/30
nitb: 13/18 + 6/6 = 19/24 + 4/6 = 23/30
laverfan: 11/18 +6/6 = 17/24 + 0/6 = 17/30
wow: 12/18 + 4/6 = 16/24 + 4/6 = 20/30
sphairistike: 12/18 + 5/6 = 17/24 + 5/6 = 22/30
SR: 5/6

So as you can see, points were deducted for wrong predictions as well as for the missed ones.
That allowed people to catch up if they were behind and kept everyone on their toes a lot more, but anyway it's your game...

by N2D2L Fri Aug 30, 2013 4:40 pm

Yes, as I thought he took the negatives off from the opponents points, not from the point of the player as you were suggesting.

Your suggestion:

noleisthebest wrote:When rotla was doing the game, you'd lose the points if the player you chose lost, so if I choose Hewitt and he wins I get 9 points, but if he loses, then I lose 9 points.

This simple isn't what happened above, in this case it would be ludicrous to ever pick an underdog... not only is it risky but you also can lose more points.

What ROTLA has done is mathematically the same as mine, except the gap between two people would be double, but of the same ratio by both mine and ROTLA's rules. For example, in my game at the end of the two weeks you would be beating Tenez by 12 points, by ROTLA's rules it would be 24 points (ie double, created by the negatives).
The only difference is that if you don't play some of ROTLA's games days you could get an advantage- which is why ROTLA correctly created the rule to negate this advantage- that if you don't pick on a day (if you are away) you get counted as all losses and all negatives.
However I specifically did not want this rule, as I realise people may be a bit busy and miss a few days, so I did not include any negative scoring.

Do you understand? Sorry if it's a bit complex but you did keep on nagging me for an explanation.
ROTLA's game was good as well, the only real change I have made is that if you miss a day you don't get penalised. The actual risk/reward thing for picking risky pickers is exactly the same.

by N2D2L Fri Aug 30, 2013 4:48 pm

ok NITB I've sent you a PM with the mathematical example as to why both the games operate in a very similar way (ie risk vs reward). Hopefully that will clear things up for you.

As there has been confusion, and today is the first day, I will allow late picks from you but must promise not to look at the ATP scoreboard first. Thumbs Up

by noleisthebest Fri Aug 30, 2013 4:50 pm

It's not the same as rotla's.
There is no risk involved in your version, if there was, you'd think twice before picking someone "risky".
Why?
Because you were risking losing a lot of points.

I can't be any clearer, really.

by N2D2L Fri Aug 30, 2013 4:53 pm

noleisthebest wrote:It's not the same as rotla's.
There is no risk involved in your version, if there was, you'd think twice before picking someone "risky".
Why?
Because you were risking losing a lot of points.

Yes but the actual ratio is the same !!

Like the difference between:
36- 18
18-9

The ratios are still the same, one is just double of the other.
Anyway I've explained in painstaking details, if you can't understand then just don't worry about it.

And PS, you've got ROTLA's scoring system wrong: if you pick the riskier player you lose less points than if you pick the favourite.

by N2D2L Fri Aug 30, 2013 4:59 pm

And just to prove what I was saying NITB:
from ROTLA's rule thread:

raiders_of_the_lost_ark wrote:4. Negative points are awarded if your prediction turns incorrect. This negative point will be as per the seeding of the player whom you predicted against. e.g. In Djo [1] vs Tsonga [4], if you predicted Djokovic [1] to win against Tsonga [4] and Tsonga [4] wins, you'll be awared -4 points.

So as I said it's a crossover, you don't lose huge points for picking a riskier pick. That would be silly, as it would just give a massive advantage to the people who pick safe bets.
ROTLA's system is good- as I said like 10 million times, the only reason I didn't use it is that under his system missing a day costs you massive points, while by this system is more flexible and you don't lose any points from earlier.

by noleisthebest Fri Aug 30, 2013 5:25 pm

Alright...I have never been a killjoy and am not going to start the trend now.
I'll be away from Fri to Mon next week, so not sure if I'll be able to connect to WI-FI.

by N2D2L Fri Aug 30, 2013 5:28 pm

lol cheers smiley

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