Points Tracker - AO 2013

The end of the road for Roger - at least for this one tournament - means that Andy is now in his third straight slam final. He and Nole will reprise their USO encounter. Nothing at stake rankingwise for now, but a victory would give Andy a good shot at making a run for #1 spot sometime this spring.

summerblues wrote:The end of the road for Roger - at least for this one tournament - means that Andy is now in his third straight slam final. He and Nole will reprise their USO encounter. Nothing at stake rankingwise for now, but a victory would give Andy a good shot at making a run for #1 spot sometime this spring.

Forget about making history and winning 3 AOs in a row, Andy Murray number one!!!!THIS HORROR MUST NOT HAPPEN!!!!!!!
go noleeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

noleisthebest wrote:Forget about making history and winning 3 AOs in a row, Andy Murray number one!!!!

In my defense, this is a points tracker thread, so #1 is more topical than 3AOs. But yes, the win for your man would be impressive. He is the favorite, though I would not be shocked if Murray were to win.

Why the intense dislike of Andy? You detest him with passion, yet hard to see a really good reason for it from where I stand. The only somewhat reasonable explanation I can think of is that, since you live in UK, you probably get fair amount of Murray hype and that can maybe get on one's nerves.

summerblues wrote:

noleisthebest wrote:Forget about making history and winning 3 AOs in a row, Andy Murray number one!!!!

In my defense, this is a points tracker thread, so #1 is more topical than 3AOs. But yes, the win for your man would be impressive. He is the favorite, though I would not be shocked if Murray were to win.

Why the intense dislike of Andy? You detest him with passion, yet hard to see a really good reason for it from where I stand. The only somewhat reasonable explanation I can think of is that, since you live in UK, you probably get fair amount of Murray hype and that can maybe get on one's nerves.

Noooo SB!!!!!
That was not meant for you, I was being ironic about Nole's main goal for the match and "telling" HIM that it's more important Murray doesn't become number one than that Novak wins consecutive AOs....


Why do I dislike Murray: yes media overkill and overhype here is certainly a huge factor esp as Novak used to be in the same context but always undercompared for years, until he took off in 2011.
But that's only a small part.
I don't know, he just gets on my nerves in every way when he is on court: to me he oozes some ugly arrogance, and his tennis doesn't win me over, either.

I cannot see anything gracious about Murray. His fat lower lip, his big legs, the way he stands 5m behind the baseline on receiving serve, his FH, his whinging.

He has a good FH.

By defending his title, Djokovic is maintaining healthy lead over his two closest rivals. This may come in handy during the spring season. Had Murray won, I would have given him better than even odds to claim #1 sometime between now and Wimbledon. Now I am inclined to think Andy will not do it (at least not by Wimbledon).

summerblues wrote:By defending his title, Djokovic is maintaining healthy lead over his two closest rivals. This may come in handy during the spring season. Had Murray won, I would have given him better than even odds to claim #1 sometime between now and Wimbledon. Now I am inclined to think Andy will not do it (at least not by Wimbledon).

Does it mean you think he will do it after Wimbledon?
He's got Wimbldon final to defend as well as USO. It is going to be a big ask for him to even match, let alone surpass.
He is very vulnerable on clay, as well. It's not a coincidence he doesn't have a single title on that surface.

Post AO, the thing to watch is Nadal's ranking.

What is the worst/best case scenario for him for the first clay masters (it's Monte Carlo, isn't it?)

As things stand he's due to "return" on Monday.....

Yes I doubt Murray will get to number one. I'd like to know though whether he is in good position for number 2....

Well clearly Fed has a lot to defend till Wimbledon but his goal should be to maintain his 2nd spot start of Wimbledon. He needs to have Murray and Djoko on teh same side at the French and Wimbledon...It woudl almost gurantee him the 2 slams like it guaranteed Djoko the AO!

I do not think Nadal will have a chance to be fully back by then...not even on clay.

Tenez wrote:Well clearly Fed has a lot to defend till Wimbledon but his goal should be to maintain his 2nd spot start of Wimbledon. He needs to have Murray and Djoko on teh same side at the French and Wimbledon...It woudl almost gurantee him the 2 slams like it guaranteed Djoko the AO!

I do not think Nadal will have a chance to be fully back by then...not even on clay.

Agreed on the Fed part, I'd say he even need to keep his #2 spot at the start of the French as we never know, if Nadal is there, he'll be in the 5-8 bracket, so why take the risk of being #3 and maybe have Nadal and Murray/Djokovic in your quarter then half?

The part on Nadal not sure, especially if Fuentes trial doesn't go anywhere...

If you stay 7 or 8 months out of competition...you simply cannot get back into it right away. He will lose a few matches against lower ranked players and that will make his preparation even shorter. Even Nadal needs confidence to play some of his shots.

Tenez wrote:If you stay 7 or 8 months out of competition...you simply cannot get back into it right away. He will lose a few matches against lower ranked players and that will make his preparation even shorter. Even Nadal needs confidence to play some of his shots.

That's why he is playing doubles in this 250 clay tournament in Chile, and that's if he turns up there in the first place.
He looks pretty top-bulky in his "latest" training video.

Timing of Fuentes trial couldn't be any better!

I did not find him that bulky in that clip you posted though he was wearing black and black tends to thin, isn't it?

Tenez wrote:I did not find him that bulky in that clip you posted though he was wearing black and black tends to thin, isn't it?

I thought he did, esp his famous left arm. Didn't shrink in the least which is a bit strange after 7 months of doing nothing, don't you think?

Again...not sure. His face looks fatter and his body more normal.

Tenez wrote:Again...not sure. His face looks fatter and his body more normal.

The Ballad of Tenez and noleisthebest


They usually disagreed
On that they agreed
Half-empty or half-full
The glass they did not need.

Nice one.


I would really be surprised to see Nadal on steroids now a few weeks from playing. DO we know when his next match is due?

I believe Monday the 4th of Feb. Somewhere in Chile, on clay. Doubles with Lopez.

will he play single also?

Tenez wrote:will he play single also?

I don't think so. He then moves on to the next 250 on clay and plays doubles with Nalbandian.

Is that true?????? Well clearly he is not going to be any fit to play at all this clay season.

Tenez wrote:Is that true?????? Well clearly he is not going to be any fit to play at all this clay season.

I know. Weird to the end.

It's quite weird the similarities with Borg. Nadal has often been compared to Borg and for those who can remember they will have in mind the many "come back" he promised.....and never happened.

Yes, Borg retired when he was 26....same age as Nadal.

noleisthebest wrote:

summerblues wrote:By defending his title, Djokovic is maintaining healthy lead over his two closest rivals. This may come in handy during the spring season. Had Murray won, I would have given him better than even odds to claim #1 sometime between now and Wimbledon. Now I am inclined to think Andy will not do it (at least not by Wimbledon).

Does it mean you think he will do it after Wimbledon?

No, I did not mean to say he will do it after Wimbledon. What I am saying is that the point differential is so high now that it will be extremely difficult to do it by Wimbledon. Whether he gets to number 1 after Wimbledon (or ever) will depend on how they all play in future - he may never get there unless he plays well.

Well, Murray said something characteristically dull of him after AO:

"If I had won this final against Novak, Iwould have had two Slam titles, a Wimbledon final and Olympic gold and still been well behind him. There was that argument not long ago about Caroline Wozniacki being world No 1without winning a Slam. The reality is with the consistency of Novak just now and Rafa on his way back, getting to No 1 is going to be even tougher"

alluding to the fact that Novak would've (still) been a slamless (for a calendar year) number one like Wozniacki had Murray beat him i AO final...
He seems to forget what heroic effort took Nole to become number one in 2011.
He basically had to go unbeaten for 47 matches and more, and win Wimbledon after that streak in order to overtake Nadal.

Some people just don't seem to learn....the others want 2 year protected ranking....


Thanks for the chart again, hope Nole stays at the top for a long time.

Tenez wrote:Well clearly Fed has a lot to defend till Wimbledon but his goal should be to maintain his 2nd spot start of Wimbledon. He needs to have Murray and Djoko on teh same side at the French and Wimbledon...It woudl almost gurantee him the 2 slams like it guaranteed Djoko the AO!

I think it will be hard for Fed to stay at #2 for RG. Unless I am mistaken, Murray has more points (7,210) than Federer (6,885) since last year's RG through this year's AO. So, forgetting about non-countables and such, it means that Roger needs to outperform Andy by over 300 points between now and RG to be seeded at #2 at the French.

I just do not know whether, at his age, he will have the willpower and ability to keep the consistency required to do that. He did it last year, but I think he was chasing #1 hard then, so he forced himself to do it. A lot may depend on how Andy does on clay. I expect him to do better than in the past, but if he does not, that could give Roger an opening.

With Wimbledon basing their seeding on grass results to some extent, maybe Roger has a chance to be #2 seed even if he is #3 in the rankings?

Yes...it's going to be tough for Fed to keep his number 2 spot as you say. I guess a lot will be down to luck of the draw. Each time one has to play the other 2 in semi and final makes it a big disadvantage.

Tenez wrote:Yes...it's going to be tough for Fed to keep his number 2 spot as you say. I guess a lot will be down to luck of the draw. Each time one has to play the other 2 in semi and final makes it a big disadvantage.

Maybe Nadal cleans up the draw for Federer, who knows?

As number 5, we coudl certainly have Andy, Nadal and Djoko on the same side.

That would indeed be pretty good for Fed.

Tenez wrote:If you stay 7 or 8 months out of competition...you simply cannot get back into it right away. He will lose a few matches against lower ranked players and that will make his preparation even shorter. Even Nadal needs confidence to play some of his shots.

Who is he going to lose to? On hard courts, perhaps, but by then he will likely have won two clay court tournaments and going to MC he will be match ready.

Despite his easy win v Chardy...I am convinced he won't. He'll lose most likely to all top 5.

Tenez wrote:Despite his easy win v Chardy...I am convinced he won't. He'll lose most likely to all top 5.

Promises, promises... you said the same thing last year and where did that get us?

One of these years it will become true but who knows when? Also, if Nole or Andy manage to beat him it may be more on the account of their good play rather than Rafa's rustiness. I just do not see why Rafa would not be back to his usual self by MC.

summerblues wrote:

Tenez wrote:Despite his easy win v Chardy...I am convinced he won't. He'll lose most likely to all top 5.

Promises, promises... you said the same thing last year and where did that get us?

One of these years it will become true but who knows when? Also, if Nole or Andy manage to beat him it may be more on the account of their good play rather than Rafa's rustiness. I just do not see why Rafa would not be back to his usual self by MC.

He's got a long way to do to return to his movement which is the key to his game. He hasn't faced any decent defenders yet, wait till the roadrunners send him from corner to corner
Did you see any of his "return" matches?
He's got only one tournament till MC anyway, Brazil open next week.
I don't think he'll show his face in IW or Miami, not because of hard courts and knees, but the fact he'd get slaughtered there by a lot of players.
remember how he withdrew there (IW) last year in the semis against Murray because he didn't want to face Novak in the final after having lost to him in the AO final.Sme will happen this year, he will try everything to protect his ego and what's left of his "aura" by not losing before the main clay season.

noleisthebest wrote:He's got a long way to do to return to his movement which is the key to his game. He hasn't faced any decent defenders yet, wait till the roadrunners send him from corner to corner
Did you see any of his "return" matches?

No did not see any of it. Was going to watch yesterday but in the end I did not. Rafa's game is not my cup of tea so I find it hard to bring myself to watch him. It is fine in a Slam or against a good player but on its own it just does not do it for me.

But I do check his results and they look good enough. What is it that makes you think he will not be back to his best by MC?

summerblues wrote:
No did not see any of it. Was going to watch yesterday but in the end I did not. Rafa's game is not my cup of tea so I find it hard to bring myself to watch him. It is fine in a Slam or against a good player but on its own it just does not do it for me.

But I do check his results and they look good enough. What is it that makes you think he will not be back to his best by MC?

Funny you should say that, because this is how my though process went at 1 AM last night:

"What on earth are you doing waiting to watch NADAL play Chardy in some ridiculous semi-final little match of a tournament you have never heard of before in the middle of the night...."

I even did my pre-match sofa power-kip slam routine....
So I had to confess the guilty pleasure of wanting to see Nadal lose badly

summerblues wrote:. What is it that makes you think he will not be back to his best by MC?

As I said in one of the posts above, it's his movement. He is about 30% behind his "best" and that will show against better players, esp good defenders.
He'll need a lot more match practice to return to his winning ways even on clay (on serious tournaments).
He won't have enough of it by MC.
I bet he won't dare show his face either at IW or Miami for the fear of losing.

The only thing he hasn't lost is the juice in that left bicep and his muscle mass. Amazing for someone who had to "rest" for 7 months.

noleisthebest wrote:

summerblues wrote:. What is it that makes you think he will not be back to his best by MC?

As I said in one of the posts above, it's his movement. He is about 30% behind his "best" and that will show against better players, esp good defenders.

I don't know, the scores look easy enough to me. Maybe he is just doing as much as he needs to do while getting some matches under his belt. When he can beat Chardy two and two, no need to try for double bagel. My hunch is he will be as good as new in Monte Carlo. But I agree it is not certain, which should make the spring season more interesting.

My little pointstracker till RG, points to defend:

Nadal-3310
Federer-2905
Djokovic-2740
Murray-1270

I can't see either Nadal or Federer defending all those points.

But the question is how much does Federer need to defend to remain ahead of Murray?

Tenez wrote:But the question is how much does Federer need to defend to remain ahead of Murray?

I don't know, that's for you and SB to work out
I know one thing though, and that's that this is probably going to be one very,very interesting clay season. I don't think Nadal is going to win anything except maybe Barcelona.
For me the question is, who is going to replace him in the finals (on clay)?

Yes, I think the clay season is going to be interesting. But I am sure they will do whatever they can to help go far in tournaments though...look at what happened last week.

Tenez wrote:Yes, I think the clay season is going to be interesting. But I am sure they will do whatever they can to help go far in tournaments though...look at what happened last week.

tbh, I'd rather forget, or at least hope that kind of thing is reserved for places like Sao Paolo and players/"friends" like Nalbandian.

To be fair though, Nalbandian was placed in the opposite half, so Nadal still needed to reach the final in the first place... Did he have friends placed on the way? Seems for both Fed and Nadal the real tests are starting this coming week. Can Fed defend Dubai with Nole in the tournament? Can Nadal win a title when other members of the top 10 are playing?

There have been some changes in top ten this Monday:

Murray and Federer switch positions as 2 and 3, as do Ferrer and Nadal who is back at number 5.

This development makes draws for the coming clay masters very interesting, as Nadal can be into any of the top 4 quarter, like in IW.
Gasquet overtakes Tipsarevic and is now number 9.

Tommy Haas is now 14th.

ATP race is much more interesting. I'll let you guess top 5 and then have a look at the link below:
www.atpworldtour.com/Rankings/YTD-Singles.aspx

1) djoko 2) murray 3) ferrer 4) nadal
unsure on 5 and 6. I'll go DP then berdych , feds, gasquet, tsonga, didnt nishi win memphis? (the joke of a 500) So i will go with him at 10.