Aus open men's final

Where is Tenez? Already drunk I bet 

No one beats the Australian Open GOAT in a final.

Intrigued to see how the Clay season pans out. I wonder what Djokovic's level will be on Clay this year.

Yeah, I guess if we learn one thing it’s that stuff doesn’t go in a straight line but I have to say that we are now back to 2016.

AceofDeath wrote:No one beats the Australian Open GOAT in a final.

Yep, 7/7!

Let's not get carried away here, people are more happy Nadal lost, than for Djokos win, no one cares for Djoko, just so I remind you lot 

legendkillar wrote:

luvsports! wrote:What was the post?

Re: Aus open prediction game: Day 12
 by bogbrush on Fri Jan 25, 2019 11:45 am

I think Nadal is going to take a hiding. I'll explain why:

- his game now is based more on a realistic assessment that he has to hit flatter and take more risks.
- against ordinary players this works fine because he gets the pay-off
- he will try to do this against Djokovic, but he will retrieve most of this and unlike other opponents, force Nadal to do this two or three times to win points
- he will not be able to sustain the level of low-error aggression and the unforced errors will start to mount up
- he may well therefore revert at some point to rallying and run out of gas

Yes a good description. I was not as confident as I had not seen Djoko play and heard he had a niggle v Medvedev I believe.

But it's bloody clear that fitness is key in this encounter. Djoko is the only player able to retrieve that FH followed by the CC BH and still being able to dictate from there. It requires amazing mouvement and stamina.

I'd like to hear from Slippy how fitness is not that important here.

Jahu wrote:

legendkillar wrote:

Jahu wrote:Fed would of beaten today Djoko in 3 

Piss off Tenez!

What do you mean? The older the better 

Take the piss guys. If I wasn;t there, you'd still think Djoko had been declining since 2011!

Jahu wrote:Well on clay Rafa gonna get beaten this year badlyyy

He would have done in the previous years had Djoko and Federer been fitter.

I love the fact Sampras is now 4th on the GOAT list.

Tenez wrote:

legendkillar wrote:

luvsports! wrote:What was the post?

Re: Aus open prediction game: Day 12
 by bogbrush on Fri Jan 25, 2019 11:45 am

I think Nadal is going to take a hiding. I'll explain why:

- his game now is based more on a realistic assessment that he has to hit flatter and take more risks.
- against ordinary players this works fine because he gets the pay-off
- he will try to do this against Djokovic, but he will retrieve most of this and unlike other opponents, force Nadal to do this two or three times to win points
- he will not be able to sustain the level of low-error aggression and the unforced errors will start to mount up
- he may well therefore revert at some point to rallying and run out of gas

Yes a good description. I was not as confident as I had not seen Djoko play and heard he had a niggle v Medvedev I believe.

But it's bloody clear that fitness is key in this encounter. Djoko is the only player able to retrieve that FH followed by the CC BH and still being able to dictate from there. It requires amazing mouvement and stamina.

I'd like to hear from Slippy how fitness is not that important here.

Amazing performance from Novak today. Good though he was against Pouille, I didn’t think he had that level of performance in him. Kudos to BB particularly for calling the result right. 

Not sure I get the fitness reference though. Did you watch the same match as me - the one where there were very few long rallies and Novak destroyed Rafa with near perfect baseline hitting?

legendkillar wrote:

Jahu wrote:

Jahu wrote:Djok in 3.

LS give me my triple points now!!! 

How about free pornhub membership instead?

I hope you're not suggesting i have that free membership to dish out to Jahu!?  

Novak’s last 14 slams are odd:

4 straight wins;
7 slams where he made 1 SF;
3 straight wins.

Has he even managed to win 2 of those 7 slams in the middle, he’d have already caught Rafa.

I just tuned back in for the end of the programne to hear how Nadal was described as the new, best-ever Nadal after his semi.

This is totally delusional. The guy is adapting as well as he can to diminished physical powers but this Nadal gets battered by the 2010 version. Sure, 2019 has some better shots - how could he not have developed shots in 9 years? - but 2010 runs him into the ground and panicks him into over-risky play, just as Djokovic did today.

Too good, deserved win.

Also credit to Djokovic for coming back from mental health issues and injury problems last year, to playing his best level as he did today. Hope Federer and Nadal can up their game for the rest of the year so we get competitive matches.

Tenez wrote:

Jahu wrote:

legendkillar wrote:

Jahu wrote:Fed would of beaten today Djoko in 3 

Piss off Tenez!

What do you mean? The older the better 

Take the piss guys. If I wasn;t there, you'd still think Djoko had been declining since 2011!

I myself don't recall saying Djokovic had declined...

Tenez wrote:

legendkillar wrote:

luvsports! wrote:What was the post?

Re: Aus open prediction game: Day 12
 by bogbrush on Fri Jan 25, 2019 11:45 am

I think Nadal is going to take a hiding. I'll explain why:

- his game now is based more on a realistic assessment that he has to hit flatter and take more risks.
- against ordinary players this works fine because he gets the pay-off
- he will try to do this against Djokovic, but he will retrieve most of this and unlike other opponents, force Nadal to do this two or three times to win points
- he will not be able to sustain the level of low-error aggression and the unforced errors will start to mount up
- he may well therefore revert at some point to rallying and run out of gas

Yes a good description. I was not as confident as I had not seen Djoko play and heard he had a niggle v Medvedev I believe.

But it's bloody clear that fitness is key in this encounter. Djoko is the only player able to retrieve that FH followed by the CC BH and still being able to dictate from there. It requires amazing mouvement and stamina.

I'd like to hear from Slippy how fitness is not that important here.

Wasn't a physical match by their standards.

One thing Novak did fantastically was when retrieving, especially when receiving was go right on the front foot playing aggressively and moving Nadal from side to side and up and down the court. 

Nadal was proper out-thought today. Even though Nadal is playing aggressively, his on court IQ hasn't improved at all.

I think Nadals problem is that he knows they can never have seriously physical matches again, hence the pushing, the errors, the panic and the general sense of dispondency which he showed right from the start.

I cannot see how he beats Djokovic again, on any surface. The match up is now simply catastrophic for him. It was getting that way a few years ago but another couple of years of wear & tear have removed all possibility of him taking it physical, leaving him having to play a game he just can’t.

Their match at Wimbledon (the 5 setter), do people think Novak was just coming back, so he was not at his best.
But Rafa played his best but still lost?
Hence why when they were both close to or at the top of the game, Novak routed him?

Guess Nadal can NOT be at his best anymore ever, maybe on Clay to a certain degree.

Djoko played very well but Rafa was clueless. BB was spot on in that once the rallies got beyond three or four strokes Nadal simply reverted to all the old patterns and plays. But of course he's now a little slower, reflexes not quite as sharp and therefore the beatdown that we saw. 

It's looking good for Djokovic to scoop up a few more. With his physical resilience and incredible fitness he's gonna be contending for at least another 3-4 years. 

Fed's slam total looks to be in danger from both Nads and Djok.

Djokovic bookies favourite, at 4/6, to overtake Fed's slam count.
No one is there to stop him, Nadal aged 32 and after the ankle surgery 2 months ago, seems to have lost his speed. Djokovic could easily win 6 more slams in the next 3 years.
If I had to choose between Djokovic and Fed having the most Slams I would choose Federer, but unfortunately that looks unlikely now. The competition is so weak, Nadal@FO and Fed@SW19 need to have blinders!

I'll take that.  Put 1000 on him not doing.  I'll do it tomorrow.

Emancipator wrote:Fed's slam total looks to be in danger from both Nads and Djok.

Eeyore

luvsports! wrote:Their match at Wimbledon (the 5 setter), do people think Novak was just coming back, so he was not at his best.
But Rafa played his best but still lost?
Hence why when they were both close to or at the top of the game, Novak routed him?

You could make the argument, but Djokovic coming back into and Nadal seemingly in his stride and still lost in 5 for me suggests the gulf between them now is quite big. 

For me Djokovic has improved his serve immeasurably and its not so much the freebie points on un-returned serves, but the fact it allows him to control so many points on his serve. That has lent so much to his game that he has become so much more energy efficient. 

It's hard to really see where Nadal has made in his improvements to his game that has allowed him to future proof his game in the way Federer did and Djokovic.

DEC1M7 wrote:Djokovic bookies favourite, at 4/6, to overtake Fed's slam count.

and Bitcoin was worth $20,000 a year ago.  Those odds are silly.  If Nole were to win CYGS this year, then these odds would look more appropriate.  Nole was five slams behind Fed in 2016 and he is five slams behind still - but three years older.

I do kind of hope he catches Rafa though.  I think Nole is the better player and Rafa's numbers are a little inflated because of Fed being such a good match-up for him.  Slightly unfair to Nole to be sitting behind Rafa.

I’m going to invest 10000 bitcoins on Djokovic to do it @4/6

Nole played very well but some people are overstating how well.  He just did what he has always done when playing well.  The difference was that Rafa is no longer the Duracell bunny he used to be.  He never had the game to compete with Nole without being able to run everything down.

DEC1M7 wrote:I’m going to invest 10000 bitcoins on Djokovic to do it @4/6

I like the combination of betting and words "invest" and "Bitcoin" all in one sentence

DEC1M7 wrote:I’m going to invest 10000 bitcoins on Djokovic to do it @4/6

A fool and his money are soon parted.  The bookies are insane offering those odds.  Mind you... how many fools are going to go for it.  

I'll double my money by voting for sanity and overwhelming history of the sport.  Not for a guy who will soon clap out overnight.

Also, agree with summerblues. Djok isn't better than he used to be - Nadal is far worse.  The only thing that's masked it is Nadal keeps fluking his arse off with all his draws. It's inflating his results.  He's being made to look less than ordinary now v Djok.  He doesn't have the huff,. the puff, or any B game.  He's never had the latter.

It was long predicted that once the legs left him, his one dimensional play would be his undoing - and that's what happened.  It's surprising only to people who look at results and records - and not the actual context.

Interesting insights here. It was only a few months ago that Djokovic got battered by Zverev, so those calling for perspective have a point.

The big question is whether any of the younger set are going to step up.

Djokovic said in the post match conference after the Zverev loss that he was ill so below his best.

Was he ill for Kachanov massacre too?

No other GS this year for Rafa, Djoko or Fed...

Jahu wrote:Was he ill for Kachanov massacre too?

Yep, he also said he was ill for that.
https://www.express.co.uk/sport/tennis/1040752/Novak-Djokovic-Karen-Khachanov-Paris-Masters-final

I was very surprised wtih Nadal’s demenour today.
I have never seen him in this “give up” mode before.

Especially two days after even Laver was giving him a slight edge, also many here were impressed wih his form.

I know Nole played superbly against him and Pouille, still, I didn’t ecpect any (let alone such early) capitulation from Nadal.

Such contrast between his semi and the final. Almost weird.

To those who say Nole has not improved, I was impressed at how early he was taking the ball today, Not to mention consistent precision and length...having fast legs to get you to the ball is ine thing but executing all thise winners is another. Nadal had no time to hit his forehands.

Nole’s speed has made both Pouille and Nadal look slow.

It was a perfect vamos-tamos tactic.

Nadal knew what I could see the other day and he was beaten before he started.

hahahaha

Djok hasn't improved and the commentary was a joke.  They made out like the play had never been seen before.  Castle needs slapping.

legendkillar wrote:

Tenez wrote:

legendkillar wrote:

luvsports! wrote:What was the post?

Re: Aus open prediction game: Day 12
 by bogbrush on Fri Jan 25, 2019 11:45 am

I think Nadal is going to take a hiding. I'll explain why:

- his game now is based more on a realistic assessment that he has to hit flatter and take more risks.
- against ordinary players this works fine because he gets the pay-off
- he will try to do this against Djokovic, but he will retrieve most of this and unlike other opponents, force Nadal to do this two or three times to win points
- he will not be able to sustain the level of low-error aggression and the unforced errors will start to mount up
- he may well therefore revert at some point to rallying and run out of gas

Yes a good description. I was not as confident as I had not seen Djoko play and heard he had a niggle v Medvedev I believe.

But it's bloody clear that fitness is key in this encounter. Djoko is the only player able to retrieve that FH followed by the CC BH and still being able to dictate from there. It requires amazing mouvement and stamina.

I'd like to hear from Slippy how fitness is not that important here.

Wasn't a physical match by their standards.

One thing Novak did fantastically was when retrieving, especially when receiving was go right on the front foot playing aggressively and moving Nadal from side to side and up and down the court. 

Nadal was proper out-thought today. Even though Nadal is playing aggressively, his on court IQ hasn't improved at all.

It's extremely physical. It doesn't last as long but they have to run faster and hit harder. Watch that USO 11 final and you will see long but very slow rallies. The tempo has really increased in the last 8 years!

summerblues wrote:Nole played very well but some people are overstating how well.  He just did what he has always done when playing well.  The difference was that Rafa is no longer the Duracell bunny he used to be.  He never had the game to compete with Nole without being able to run everything down.

But it is important to note that old Nadal would get an even more humiliating kicking. Cause he would have no chance to run down today's shots...and certainly not the 20 rallies they used to run at today's pace.

People forget that without Djoko Nadal would have won that slam without probably losing a set and cutting through the draw better than ever, certainly will less sweat than ever.

Nadal is no more the bunny he used to be cause the bunny he used to be would go nowhere nowadays.

And who knows whether Nadal could be the bunny he was with the shot clock? That shot clock has reduced Nadal's time on court by 30% at least...thats a lot less breathing time he used to have, necessary for his gruelling game.

noleisthebest wrote:To those who say Nole has not improved, I was impressed at how early he was taking the ball today, Not to mention consistent precision and length...having fast legs to get you to the ball is ine thing but executing all thise winners is another. Nadal had no time to hit his forehands.

Nole’s speed has made both Pouille and Nadal look slow.

It was a perfect vamos-tamos tactic.

Of course Djoko has improved. His shots are more precise and pacier, in particular his BH. And that is essentially with his mouvement why he made Nadal look so clueless.

But again, the same people are in denial.....not because they think differently, but their egos is at stake and have no choice not to see the obvious.

Tenez wrote:

legendkillar wrote:

Tenez wrote:

legendkillar wrote:

luvsports! wrote:What was the post?

Re: Aus open prediction game: Day 12
 by bogbrush on Fri Jan 25, 2019 11:45 am

I think Nadal is going to take a hiding. I'll explain why:

- his game now is based more on a realistic assessment that he has to hit flatter and take more risks.
- against ordinary players this works fine because he gets the pay-off
- he will try to do this against Djokovic, but he will retrieve most of this and unlike other opponents, force Nadal to do this two or three times to win points
- he will not be able to sustain the level of low-error aggression and the unforced errors will start to mount up
- he may well therefore revert at some point to rallying and run out of gas

Yes a good description. I was not as confident as I had not seen Djoko play and heard he had a niggle v Medvedev I believe.

But it's bloody clear that fitness is key in this encounter. Djoko is the only player able to retrieve that FH followed by the CC BH and still being able to dictate from there. It requires amazing mouvement and stamina.

I'd like to hear from Slippy how fitness is not that important here.

Wasn't a physical match by their standards.

One thing Novak did fantastically was when retrieving, especially when receiving was go right on the front foot playing aggressively and moving Nadal from side to side and up and down the court. 

Nadal was proper out-thought today. Even though Nadal is playing aggressively, his on court IQ hasn't improved at all.

It's extremely physical. It doesn't last as long but they have to run faster and hit harder. Watch that USO 11 final and you will see long but very slow rallies. The tempo has really increased in the last 8 years!

But that encounter wasn't the marathon match that we've experienced from them previously. 

You have to factor in that the conditions are a tad zippier than other Slams. Watch the Wim semi last year. Djokovic wasn't placing the ball with the razor precision he did yesterday.

Tenez wrote:And who knows whether Nadal could be the bunny he was with the shot clock? That shot clock has reduced Nadal's time on court by 30% at least...thats a lot less breathing time he used to have, necessary for his gruelling game.

Not sure about that. Take the AO Final 2017. Nadal had to go for broke in that match because Federer's BH wasn't breaking down. Don't think the shot clock has driven the aggressive approach he has had to take. Look at his 1st round match against De Minaur. Played a guy who ran and ran. Nadal would've exhausted more in that match than yesterday's kicking.

bogbrush wrote:Interesting insights here. It was only a few months ago that Djokovic got battered by Zverev, so those calling for perspective have a point.

The big question is whether any of the younger set are going to step up.

I dunno about that. Against Medvedev Djokovic racked up 50 UE's. That's more than double than he coughed up in the matches against Pouille and Nadal combined! 

His shots are looking more and more precise and the 1st serve for me looks more than unreturnable at times. His point construction too whereby taking incentive from the first ball. The BH looks much more solid than back in 2016. 

Yes we can question the quality of the current field. However, I'd add the caveat whereby fitness was important previously to Djokovic and Nadal, they've adapted their game and Djokovic I'd even say improved slightly. So they like Federer have stolen a march on the field. 

Looking at the field, Tsitipas and Shapovalov have the shots to go toe to toe, but not the IQ or experience dare I say to quite do it regularly.

[quote="legendkillar"]

Tenez wrote:But that encounter wasn't the marathon match that we've experienced from them previously. 

No Marathon but the pace is faster than in 2011 or even 2012. In other words they are running 400ms nowadays, not marathons. Both are deadly physically. Djoko would have no chance against Nadal if he could not retrieve that CC FH followed by that CC BH from Nadal. This combination is played significantly faster than then. In the past they agreed to play at a slower rhythm and abuse that clock. Nowadays they can't so they have no choice but to play faster. Still, it's as physical as in the past. They just give it all in shorter points.

Don't think that they spare they effort.

You have to factor in that the conditions are a tad zippier than other Slams. Watch the Wim semi last year. Djokovic wasn't placing the ball with the razor precision he did yesterday.

Did not watch that match...and I cannot see the point. Djoko was a different player last year, so difficult to make a point out of it anyway.

legendkillar wrote:

Tenez wrote:And who knows whether Nadal could be the bunny he was with the shot clock? That shot clock has reduced Nadal's time on court by 30% at least...thats a lot less breathing time he used to have, necessary for his gruelling game.

Not sure about that. Take the AO Final 2017. Nadal had to go for broke in that match because Federer's BH wasn't breaking down. Don't think the shot clock has driven the aggressive approach he has had to take. Look at his 1st round match against De Minaur. Played a guy who ran and ran. Nadal would've exhausted more in that match than yesterday's kicking.

I am not sure I understand your point. Nadal is certainly not going to play Federer the way he plays Djoko.

So you think Nadal's taking his time (and Djoko) in the past has nothing to do with needing more breathing time?

It's bloody obvious that's the reason.

At 32 Nadal is at an age when his stamina should be as good as ever. Look at cyclists and marathoniens. The older they get the longer the race they choose to enter. The problem is he is going to struggle with those 5 or 10s less on every point. Those add up to a lot of time. This is why in the past their matches lasted for ever.

And I am glad to note that once again Nadal fails to win a slam within the rules.

I like the fact Shapo, Tsonga, Medv did considerably better than Nadal. Maybe Nadal was over rated cause he played once again no top seed.

Good to see that Djoko was prepared to say that Fed's tally 20 is a 'target'.  No faux modesty about him. 

His win yesterday was clearly the best immediate result for Fed's tally - 5-6 remains an absolutely huge target however well he is playing now, and as we have seen much can go wrong, or just not according to plan.  That said, if Djoko matches Nadal's tally this year I'll be looking anxiously to the Next Gen.