US Open prediction game! Day 8

Why did he play ok against Korgi and then do nothing last night, weird.

Reading the BBC report they seem to think he was screwed in the humidity and lost confidence in being able to rally. That backs up what I said earlier, what with all the drop shots, net points and hit amount of winners and unforced errors.

Ok, fair enough. At 37 he is a sprinter  and if this was impossible to play his match then that's that.

It does look increasingly like it's Australia or Wimbledon, if he's to ever add to 20.

I don't think it is humidity or heat...though it might not have helped. I just think it is age or fitness or both which makes him tire quicker. His 3 slams won recently were showing signs of it all along.

Once again he wins the first set and then collapses.

When I saw the draw I did not think Fed had a cat in hell's chance although I thought he'd go out to a more fancied player.

USO has become a real grinder's tournament these last few years and I agree with BB that it's Aus or Wimbledon; but even then I think it most likely that Fed's won his last slam.

I'm hoping that somebody can keep Nadal on #17 - this USO feels v. important for the overall slam tally.

Wow that was painful viewing. He looked like a little boy lost at times. Whatever is going on is clearly affecting his focus and confidence.

Think it's 20 and out.

The Beeb what tossers. In the report "against arguably the greatest male player of all time"

I don't really go along with that, unless you're saying he's fallen off a cliff in 6 months. AO 2017 was a triumph of 3 5-set matches, including both semi and final.

There's no contradiction between fitness and heat/humidity; playing a few sets in high humidity is like 5 in the cool. Humidity especially kills because it stresses the ability to shed temperature. I think the answer fairly simply is that he's more vulnerable to this sort of thing and extreme heat & humidity will wipe him out. Perhaps it's no coincidence that we were steaming in England this Wimbledon.

It all adds up to saying the convergence of conditions needed for him to win a Slam are getting tighter. Now we have to add the weather conditions to the court and balls. Doesn't mean it's not doable, it's just that we have to check the weather forecast as well as the draw!

legendkillar wrote:Wow that was painful viewing. He looked like a little boy lost at times. Whatever is going on is clearly affecting his focus and confidence.

Think it's 20 and out.

The Beeb what tossers. In the report "against arguably the greatest male player of all time"

Yes, I don't mind the debate vs Nadal , Laver etc.... but this Serena Williams bollox really irritates.

Other than that I thought the report was very kind to him. I guess the editorial line is clear at the BBC.

Tenez wrote:I don't think it is humidity or heat...though it might not have helped. I just think it is age or fitness or both which makes him tire quicker. His 3 slams won recently were showing signs of it all along.

Once again he wins the first set and then collapses.

I think we can trust what the man himself says:

"It was very hot and one of those nights where I felt I couldn't get air," he said.
"I just struggled in the conditions and it was one of the first times it has happened to me.
"You just keep sweating and lose energy. At some point I was just happy the match was over."

Yeah, pretty much backs up what I'm saying.

Also makes me think Cilic may have had even more of a point about the roof being closed for the AO final....

bogbrush wrote:Also makes me think Cilic may have had even more of a point about the roof being closed for the AO final....

I think he did; I remember reading an article to the effect that eyebrows were being raised by many in the locker room by the slightly preferential treatment of Fed, including the AO organisers associating themselves with promoting Fed's Laver Cup.  The article was not bitchy, merely factual, there was no suggestion that Fed's win was being begrudged; but even as a Federer fan, and accepting that he has earned much of the support he gets, I felt somewhat uncomfortable about it all.

More interesting quotes, from both players.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/tennis/45406837

I've never heard of players struggling to hold a racquet because of sweat, and Federers point about lack of air flow with the roof is new. Also, never heard anyone say one problem is the balls getting wet from the sweat in your shorts!

No wonder he was happy to see it done.


I think this puts a different spin on the result and makes me feel slightly less negative about the future.

bogbrush wrote:

legendkillar wrote:Wow that was painful viewing. He looked like a little boy lost at times. Whatever is going on is clearly affecting his focus and confidence.

Think it's 20 and out.

The Beeb what tossers. In the report "against arguably the greatest male player of all time"

Yes, I don't mind the debate vs Nadal , Laver etc.... but this Serena Williams bollox really irritates.

Other than that I thought the report was very kind to him. I guess the editorial line is clear at the BBC.

It irks me. I blame Murray and Serena

It was a kind report. Almost virgin territory as I doubt you'll ever see Federer lament conditions for his performance. That certainly gave it some serious consideration.

Yep...conds are an excuse but what about his loss to Anderson? His lungs are not as good it seems.

Tenez wrote:Yep...conds are an excuse but what about his loss to Anderson? His lungs are not as good it seems.

Were you in England then? I went on Day 1 and it was pretty brutal and it got tougher through July and into August in England so I doubt the 2nd week was easier. It all adds up, what with him getting off to good start against Anderson and in both cases coming close to winning the match early on (match point v Anderson, set points on 2 & 3 versus Millman) but fading and in both cases becoming unable to rally properly.

I don't disagree with the conclusion but in the old days, when his training regime in Dubai was legendary, he'd have eaten it up.

The main point for me is that it doesn't force me to the conclusion that the guy can't hit the right level, just that he can't handle the very hot, very humid now. It just adds to the (dis)qualification criteria for him to win a Slam and makes it a pretty remote possibility.

So we chase some indoor and cooler weather tournaments now.

Jahu wrote:So we chase some indoor and cooler weather tournaments now.

Or we hope the USO adopts an Australian policy and starts closing the roof when it gets daft.

Anyway, he's 40 soon so it's got to come to an end at some point soon!

Federer is either carrying an injury (30-40 % 1st serves per set - ?back) or his conditioning is a little down on previous years. 

He looked knackered last night, even more so than at W, and he looked pretty knackered to me at W by the start of the third set. The conditions of course played their part, particularly last night, but I don’t believe for one minute the Federer of previous years would have been bothered by the temperatures at W. This is the guy that famously trains in the desert and barely breaks a sweat; who i’ve Never seen bothered by heat before. 

The most plausible explanation to me is that he’s carrying some kind of injury which may have hampered his prep over the spring. most probably a chronic injury (back) which is not/has not been fixable and has continued to bother him. We know the back can be very up and down even from one week to the next. He is now at an age where the down periods are becoming insurmountable. 

The other thought is that he may have lost some motivation to train as previously- but I find that hard to believe given how professional and committed he is in general - and how much he hates to lose. Last night was galling for him.

It’s a shame because the Federer of early 2017 would, IMO, be a favourite against everyone including Novak, even on this medium paced court.

Certainly as I was watching the match yesterday, my initial thoughts were what Emanciptor and Tenez are saying now.
His first serve percentage was abysmal, loads of double faults, and seemed almost afraid of rallying from the back off the court. Net rushing on second serves, and playing drop shots excessively. His movement on return of serve was very poor.
That for me is all indicating a back injury, and him playing that way to try and not exacerbate it.

On the other hand, based on what he's saying in the press conference, perhaps the heat and humidity did totally drain his energy, and then he just played in a way that would mimic a injury hindered performance. Perhaps the USO do need to look a their air circulation in AA court, Djokovic also struggled. It was a night session though, and Federer has won both his day matches in more brutal conditions in straight sets.
I think Federer fans who follow his interviews very closely will be better positioned than me to tell if he was hiding something and the humidity was just cover. Or perhaps a bit of both?

I’m with the heat & humidity, I think that has been hurting him through this Summer.

I do not buy humidity as the primary issue.  Maybe old age, maybe back, maybe some other issue, but why humidity?  He has played in worse conditions over the years.  Plus the worst part of his game was his serve - why would that be impacted by humidity so much?  He only made 2 out of first 20 (!) first serves at the beginning of the second set.  He was making DF after DF.  Commentators here were even musing whether his back could be bad - and they do not do that very often.

I am with Eman - either he has some injury or he has had issues earlier in the year that prevented him from getting his conditioning into shape.

But he is 37, so stuff like that is to be expected.  In my mind, he is done winning slams.  I would love to be proven wrong, but I am not expecting it.

summerblues wrote:I do not buy humidity as the primary issue.  Maybe old age, maybe back, maybe some other issue, but why humidity?  He has played in worse conditions over the years.  Plus the worst part of his game was his serve - why would that be impacted by humidity so much?  He only made 2 out of first 20 (!) first serves at the beginning of the second set.  He was making DF after DF.  Commentators here were even musing whether his back could be bad - and they do not do that very often.

I am with Eman - either he has some injury or he has had issues earlier in the year that prevented him from getting his conditioning into shape.

But he is 37, so stuff like that is to be expected.  In my mind, he is done winning slams.  I would love to be proven wrong, but I am not expecting it.

This is typical of issues I noticed in patches in the last 2 years. Often he was able to get out of it but clearly something is hurting him or simply stiffening as the match goes on. Happened in that AO18 final too.He blamed nerves then but never believed him there especially as he was in a comfortable lead.

Fed's old.  He's done it all.  He's got very little to play for... and a whole lot of family life to contend with while doing a grueling training schedule.

The end is near.


And he's, unfortunately, got a lot of demons rattling round his head when he plays Del po and especially Djokovic.  It's like he turns up beaten.  His draw was the hardest this year.  Nadal would have gone home v Kyrgios.

summerblues wrote:I do not buy humidity as the primary issue.  Maybe old age, maybe back, maybe some other issue, but why humidity?  He has played in worse conditions over the years.  Plus the worst part of his game was his serve - why would that be impacted by humidity so much?  He only made 2 out of first 20 (!) first serves at the beginning of the second set.  He was making DF after DF.  Commentators here were even musing whether his back could be bad - and they do not do that very often.

I am with Eman - either he has some injury or he has had issues earlier in the year that prevented him from getting his conditioning into shape.

But he is 37, so stuff like that is to be expected.  In my mind, he is done winning slams.  I would love to be proven wrong, but I am not expecting it.

I'm hoping he can iron out any physical issues by OZ and give it a real go. 

Next W I think is probably his last hope.

Emancipator wrote:I'm hoping he can iron out any physical issues by OZ and give it a real go. 

Next W I think is probably his last hope.

I have written him off after the way he went at Wimbledon.  I do not expect any more slams from him.  Of course, I will be hoping for a title every slam he enters, but it looks like it is becoming too hard.  He will be still older next year, so even with good health it will be getting very difficult.  It will also be more and more difficult to keep injuries at bay.  One never knows, so maybe I am wrong, but I think he is done.