Roland Garros 2018 + The Draw

OK, last decent pre RG tournament is finished.

Nadal did not win everything, he lost in Madrid, which we kind of didn't expect but if he was going to lose anywhere - that was the place.

So...from what we've seen so far, Nadal is the main favourite, I'd say 95%, the other 5% go to the rest who will make the most of the draw if/when Nadal gets knocked out.

The most frequently asked question remains for the umpteenth time: who can beat Nadal in the best of 5 in Paris?

Assuming the conditions are the same as last year, the best chance will be had by the player who gets Nadal on Suzanne Langlen court.
I hope it happens on the 4th in the QF!

That court plays a little faster than Chatrier and is just very different from the big arena where Nadal can run rings around anyone with all that extra space.

We saw how vulnerable Zverev is today and in Paris we even get hot weather, more rain than Rome plus no lights...so one has to be almost superhuman to overcome all those distractions on top!

Not to mention dodgy line calls, potentially rigged draws....no wonder the opposition feels beaten in the locker room...

But enough of moaning!

A fresh, brand new RG is coming soon, and you simply never know....crazier things have happened than Nadal losing in Paris!!!

Rafa's last two tournaments did not look as dominant as the first three - so there is a sliver of hope there.

One encouraging thing about today was that Zverev did not have to redline to get to a break up in the third.  He will not come away thinking "I have done all that I could and it still was not enough" but rather "I was a break up playing my normal tennis and if I had not come back cold, I may have won it".

If they meet at RG, I think Zverev will have some chance - maybe 20-30%.  My worry is that he may not make it to the final.

Here is the list of seeds:

1. Rafael Nadal
2. Alexander Zverev
3. Marin Čilić
4. Grigor Dimitrov
5. Juan Martín del Potro
6. Kevin Anderson
7. Dominic Thiem
8. David Goffin
9. John Isner
10. Pablo Carreño Busta
11. Diego Schwartzman
12. Sam Querrey
13. Roberto Bautista Agut
14. Jack Sock
15. Lucas Pouille
16. Kyle Edmund
17. Tomáš Berdych
18. Fabio Fognini
19. Hyeon Chung
20. Kei Nishikori
21. Novak Djokovic
22. Nick Kyrgios
23. Philipp Kohlschreiber
24. Stan Wawrinka
25. Denis Shapovalov
26. Adrian Mannarino
27. Filip Krajinović
28. Damir Džumhur
29. Andrey Rublev
30. Richard Gasquet
31. Feliciano López
32. Gilles Müller

so third round or quarters seems to be the tricky rounds

third round possible rivals for nadal:

shapovalov, djokovic, nishikori, chung, fognini


4th round, only Edmund would worry me

Quarters:

Thiem, Goffin, Del Potro

I think seeds #1-8 can only play seeds #25-32 in Rd 3 (seeds #9-16 get to play seeds #17-24).  So Rafa can only play Shapovalov from your list.

Looking at the seeds, I would say seeds #17-24 look stronger on average than seeds #9-16.

yeah true, in that case... if seed were to advance, the main worry for nadal starts in the quarters


not sure if Delpo will finally play though.


To a certain extent, I agree with Tenez in the fact that Nadal is not that fit anymore, lets see if bo5 is better or worse for him, this time

If it's baking hot Nadal has it won.

If it's damp and cooler he is vulnerable.

Also, Zverev looked to have him worked out and it could be argued that he only losr because of stiuffness in the 1st set and after resumption. That middle section was reminiscent of the time Djokovic took him apart at RG in the quarter when he did him in three, and the final when it went soggy and Nadal could barely get a game to deuce.

"That middle section was reminiscent of the time Djokovic took him apart at RG in the quarter when he did him in three"


that was 2015, one of djokovic best years, and without a doubt, nadal´s darkest year

naxroy wrote:To a certain extent, I agree with Tenez in the fact that Nadal is not that fit anymore, lets see if bo5 is better or worse for him, this time

What I say regarding his bluffing fitness has not much to do with age. He has always been tiring since e started play tennis but he does his best to hide it cause that bluffing is a big part of his game aimed at discouraging his opponents. His first bluff is that bouncing before the match at the toss of the coin. he is already there telling his opponent that he is full of energy and can go on for ever.

However history shows that he has been tiring and losing streaks of games after hitting the wall.

All to do with those types of mucles and why he needs desparately those 30+ secs between points.


Type II, fast twitch muscle, has three major subtypes (IIa, IIx, and IIb) that vary in both contractile speed[7] and force generated.[6] Fast twitch fibers contract quickly and powerfully but fatigue very rapidly, sustaining only short, anaerobic bursts of activity before muscle contraction becomes painful. They contribute most to muscle strength and have greater potential for increase in mass. Type IIb is anaerobic, glycolytic, "white" muscle that is least dense in mitochondria and myoglobin. In small animals (e.g., rodents) this is the major fast muscle type, explaining the pale color of their flesh.

This fatique cause him to lose 3 5 setters v Federer (not known for his 5 set records) losing the last 6 and then 5 games in a row.

But Djoko was able to expose that much before that 5th set, like in R 2012 I believe before the rain break or in many of their matches. Murray and Coria already exposed it too.

Many this is showing more with age but it has always been there. Clearly v Fog and Zverev it was obvious. When Nadal has enough oxygen in his mucles he can hot hard and his shots are difficult to handle (6/1 yesterday and then 5 games in a row after the rain break...but when he had to keep running, the shots got shorter.

Regarding RG, bo5 don;t make much of a difference....people don;t understand that the tiredness and loss of precision happen after 2 or 3 long rallies....but a 2 or 3 mon break is enough to recover control of the match.

Remember when he was badly treated by PH Matthew at the FO 2006(or 7)...with his DBH PMH was able to make nadal run for long rallies. Then of course nadal came up with that banana swallowing issue which gave him enough time to recover his breath.

The legs can go on forever without resting.....not the arms.

I do believe age matters in nadal´s case

naxroy wrote:I do believe age matters in nadal´s case

Agreed.
He has started to show signs of age, but he is still able to get away with it and even more so in RG with extra days of rest.

If Fed can still do it at nearly 37, Nadal’s at 32 is still fresher than him despite his style of play.

The mileage will probably start to hurt Nadal from 2020 when younger generation gains a bit more experience  and confidence.

naxroy wrote:I do believe age matters in nadal´s case

It's probably one of his best year on clay....yet you see age effect!?

Tenez wrote:

naxroy wrote:I do believe age matters in nadal´s case

It's probably one of his best year on clay....yet you see age effect!?

The way he started that final (his 5th match in a row after a long clay season) was not showing age at all. Had he been rusty and struggled that first set, then you'd have a point but that was not the case.

The problem with age is that you arrive on court rusty but get better as the body warms up.

naxroy wrote:"That middle section was reminiscent of the time Djokovic took him apart at RG in the quarter when he did him in three"


that was 2015, one of djokovic best years, and without a doubt, nadal´s darkest year

That was, but the time he couldn't win a game against him in the final was all about losing the ability to make it kick off the court. Nadal is completely dependent on making the ball bounce very high - it's as simple as that. If he plays on a low bouncing court (such as wet clay or 1st week Wimbledon) he has big trouble both because he can't get the ball into an awkward place for his opponent, but also because he prefers to hit off a higher ball himself.

However, going back to yesterday that sequence was getting towards that standard, which makes you wonder what was going on.

bogbrush wrote:

naxroy wrote:"That middle section was reminiscent of the time Djokovic took him apart at RG in the quarter when he did him in three"


that was 2015, one of djokovic best years, and without a doubt, nadal´s darkest year

That was, but the time he couldn't win a game against him in the final was all about losing the ability to make it kick off the court. Nadal is completely dependent on making the ball bounce very high - it's as simple as that. If he plays on a low bouncing court (such as wet clay or 1st week Wimbledon) he has big trouble both because he can't get the ball into an awkward place for his opponent, but also because he prefers to hit off a higher ball himself.

It is a kind of vicious circle for Nadal. The higher the bounce, the harder it is for the opponent to inject pace (difficult to time a spiny ball) which gives him in turn, more time to inject that spin. By the same token, the lower the bounce, easier to time, ball arrives to Nadal at a higher pace, therefore less time in Nadal's racquet , less spin, easier for the opponent to keep on adding pace and dictate.

But this is where those "whitish" msucles cells can play a role. Cause in turn, if Nadal tires a bit like he has shown many times, the ball gets less spiny -> easier to time -> easier to dictate.

With Nadal, it is essential to blunt his energy, like it is important for him to blunt his opponent's edge.

well, we all know what conditions suit rafa more

but nobody can say he hasnt been succesful in other conditions

I mean, as much as he has been exposed so many times in faster surfaces, he still has a top CV off clay

naxroy wrote:well, we all know what conditions suit rafa more

but nobody can say he hasnt been succesful in other conditions

I mean, as much as he has been exposed so many times in faster surfaces, he still has a top CV off clay

It would be absurd to deny the changes made to the other surfaces (and more so bigger balls) to liken the other surfaces to clay. That last USO was simply a joke in that respect....but it all started in 2008 as people wanted to see more Fedal finals all over the world. It's what was selling! Not Federer v Davydenko.

in 2008 nadal was playing his third wimbledon final

and had just turned 22

naxroy wrote:in 2008 nadal was playing his third wimbledon final

yes and by that time Wimbledon had bigged up its' balls so that it was almost easier to break in Wimbledon than the FO.

Same for the USO pre 2010. Anybody could beat him there...and then they added more sand in the paint and provided bigger balls for men than women in 2010.

Do your search.

You are constantly trying to deny, or brush aside basic facts.

I think Nadal has a two year window for winning slams ahead of him, if Federer wins Wimbledon this year that could be a final nail in Nadal’s GOAT ambition.

Though one never knows with Nadal...so long as Federer keeps playing even if it’s two slams a year, he is Nadal’s thorn in the flesh.

USO will be interesting, but we know the land of Hollywood will probably do anything to support her favourite tennis son.

How else to explain the draws, conditions and scheduling he’s had there for years?

Tenez wrote:

naxroy wrote:in 2008 nadal was playing his third wimbledon final

yes and by that time Wimbledon had bigged up its' balls so that it was almost easier to break in Wimbledon than the FO.

Same for the USO pre 2010. Anybody could beat him there...and then they added more sand in the paint and provided bigger balls for men than women in 2010.

Do your search.

You are constantly trying to deny, or brush aside basic facts.

well, you said it all started in 2008

noleisthebest wrote:I think Nadal has a two year window for winning slams ahead of him, if Federer wins Wimbledon this year that could be a final nail in Nadal’s GOAT ambition.

Though one never knows with Nadal...so long as Federer keeps playing even if it’s two slams a year, he is Nadal’s thorn in the flesh.

USO will be interesting, but we know the land of Hollywood will probably do anything to support her favourite tennis son.

How else to explain the draws, conditions and scheduling he’s had there for years?

I don't think he has 2 years. He just has another month. I cannot see him win more than another slam. Look at how quick Zverev improved on clay this year. Chung could even have done better had he not been injured. Shapo will be much better next year and those guys will blast nadal (and most likely Federer) away by end of year.

noleisthebest wrote:I think Nadal has a two year window for winning slams ahead of him, if Federer wins Wimbledon this year that could be a final nail in Nadal’s GOAT ambition.

Though one never knows with Nadal...so long as Federer keeps playing even if it’s two slams a year, he is Nadal’s thorn in the flesh.

USO will be interesting, but we know the land of Hollywood will probably do anything to support her favourite tennis son.

How else to explain the draws, conditions and scheduling he’s had there for years?

no matter how many more slams Rafa wins.

Federer is the GOAT

that is not under debate

naxroy wrote:

Tenez wrote:

naxroy wrote:in 2008 nadal was playing his third wimbledon final

yes and by that time Wimbledon had bigged up its' balls so that it was almost easier to break in Wimbledon than the FO.

Same for the USO pre 2010. Anybody could beat him there...and then they added more sand in the paint and provided bigger balls for men than women in 2010.

Do your search.

You are constantly trying to deny, or brush aside basic facts.

well, you said it all started in 2008

Wimbeldon started to increase ball size in 2002 not to help Nadal but to prevent too much SVings like they had in the 90s.

Clay courters like Wilander, Chang had no hope on grass then.

Each time we have come round to RG since 2012, I'm always grateful that (i) somebody stopped Nadal at the AO and (ii) Fed got an extra slam or two in the bank - the latter feeling has obviously been magnified recently.

As far as Nadal and slams are concerned, the fat lady is going through her final choices of footwear &c, but I don't think she's started clearing her throat yet.

Tenez wrote:

naxroy wrote:

Tenez wrote:

naxroy wrote:in 2008 nadal was playing his third wimbledon final

yes and by that time Wimbledon had bigged up its' balls so that it was almost easier to break in Wimbledon than the FO.

Same for the USO pre 2010. Anybody could beat him there...and then they added more sand in the paint and provided bigger balls for men than women in 2010.

Do your search.

You are constantly trying to deny, or brush aside basic facts.

well, you said it all started in 2008

Wimbeldon started to increase ball size in 2002 not to help Nadal but to prevent too much SVings like they had in the 90s.

Clay courters like Wilander, Chang had no hope on grass then.

I know, but you said it all started in 2008

Tenez wrote:
I don't think he has 2 years. He just has another month. I cannot see him win more than another slam. Look at how quick Zverev improved on clay this year. Chung could even have done better had he not been injured. Shapo will be much better next year and those guys will blast nadal (and most likely Federer) away by end of year.

That would be wonderful but...
Nadal is improving, too.
The way I see it, while he can run, he can win slams.

Maybe Stan can awaken the animal for the last time this year...

Jahu wrote:Maybe Stan can awaken the animal for the last time this year...

You can keep a 10% hope on this if Stan wins this ATP250 in Geneva. 

Else he is likely to lose even if he is playing a qualifier ranked  > 200. I see a retirement coming up from him soon. This is not new, I have seen the signs before in many players.

I hate to say this as  a Stan-Fan I am, the only thing left of him is he is not retired.

Looks like delpo may miss FO http://www.tennis.com/pro-game/2018/05/following-groin-tear-juan-martin-del-potro-doubt-french-open/73914/

Zverev or Fognini if they can stay in the zone long enough.

Other than that, no-one has a chance.

Id say Chung if he gets fit again.

1. Theim is my top man for the RG to take Nadal. The only one who actually has beaten Nadal on clay this year and 3 times in total ( something perhaps only Djoko has bettered. )


2. Fognini can, but suffers from fitness issues and his game is too risky. But given the field he is my 2nd man.

3. Djokovic: He has the skill, he has the game. He needs some strength in shots and volumes in those lungs. On a slightly off Nadal, he will beat him.


4. Zverev/Chung: They haven't even beaten Nadal anywhere as yet. Crossing the line is not easy against Nadal anywhere. Clay. No chance.

Tenez wrote:Id say Chung if he gets fit again.

iff and that's a BIG if. A 100% fit and injury free opponent only has about 10% chance of beating Nadal. Any less, have 0.

Players getting injured mostly because they are playing the game that their body isn't meant to. They are pushing their bodies harder and harder.

 Delpo, Nishi both are suffering due to this. Chung is the latest in this list, young and injured. Not everyone has Djoko's or Nadal's body to keep up that kind of game.

Would Fed get a place if he applied now?

bogbrush wrote:Would Fed get a place if he applied now?

Are you saying you believe the earth is flat?

Santoro's verdict on Nole:

'He not only plays very well, but seems an ambitious guy again.

He found this look again in Monte Carlo. It's funny, I remembered I made Pierre-Hugues (Herbert) note it in the locker room. The difference between the current Djoko and the previous one is just physical', he added, before referring to the semifinals loss against Rafael Nadal ended with a 7-6 6-3 score: 'In the second set, why does he make more mistakes? Because he is less patient.

He shortens the point because he has not the essence to play in the right way.' Then a prediction for French Open: 'His current game level allows him to beat many people in Paris. Then, to be one of outsiders, you need to have an amazing body.

At the French Open, you need to be able to play two or three matches lasting four or five hours. Now, when there were two consecutive points at high intensity, he was influenced and didn't commit for a third arm wrestling in a row.

You can't build a body for nine days. That's why I don't put Djokovic in the real outsiders' category. But just for this reason."

Excellent analysis. (we here have said the same more or less )
Except that I can't help hoping that Nole will somehow manage to raise to the occasion (no idea how though...probably the sheer spirit and adrenalin).

But as things stand, this RG is Nadal's to lose.

raiders_of_the_lost_ark wrote:Players getting injured mostly because they are playing the game that their body isn't meant to. They are pushing their bodies harder and harder.

If that was true Nadal would be the first injured....though to be fair he has been injured quite often.

 Delpo, Nishi both are suffering due to this. Chung is the latest in this list, young and injured. Not everyone has Djoko's or Nadal's body to keep up that kind of game.

A lot has to do the team those guys can afford. Federer said for instance that one of the best investment he made young was to hire a physio. What would have Nadal done without taking PRP out of the anti-doping list?

I love this paragraph from Santoro so much, I have to highlight it as to me it sums up Nadal’s tennis and dominance on clay perfectly.

It’s all about physicality and endurance. Nothing to do with tennis talent and shotmaking.
He kills a player with three “armwrestling” rallies...that’s it! 

The questions remains how come Nadal is the only guy who can be so super strong all these years?


“At the French Open, you need to be able to play two or three matches lasting four or five hours. Now, when there were two consecutive points at high intensity, he was influenced and didn't commit for a third arm wrestling in a row.”

noleisthebest wrote:I love this paragraph from Santoro so much, I have to highlight it as to me it sums up Nadal’s tennis and dominance on clay perfectly.

It’s all about physicality and endurance. Nothing to do with tennis talent and shotmaking.
He kills a player with three “armwrestling” rallies...that’s it! 

The questions remains how come Nadal is the only guy who can be so super strong all these years?


“At the French Open, you need to be able to play two or three matches lasting four or five hours. Now, when there were two consecutive points at high intensity, he was influenced and didn't commit for a third arm wrestling in a row.”

Who is "he"? not sure what he means there.

we all agree Nadal is the clear favourite


for others to win Roland Garros it will take 7 hard matches and one of them against Rafa

it can be done, but its not the safest bet

and if I have to think of anyone able to do it I have to think about the only person who has already done it

apart from nole, I would think of a great day by Thiem or Zverev mixed with a bad day from rafa... no one else

I know one thing, despite everything, Nole will be going to Paris to lift that trophy again.

No he is not going  to Paris for that. More of a I hope I'll do good in Paris and by W even better.

Don't think he is fond of that trophy much, it started his downhill 

Nole will get back to his best version, I am sure

Was about to do a post on this but saw that this thread was here so I thought better of it.
Imo, the names who could trouble Rafa.
http://richard-mills-sports.blogspot.co.uk/2018/05/can-anyone-stop-rafael-nadal-from.html

We all have the same few names on mind but I have the feeling that maybe someone totally unherad of may do it


in the end, it has to happen someday