What will the order of retirement of the Big Four?

Ok, so we’ve got

Federer, 36
Nadal, 31
Djokovic, 30
Murray, 30

In what order might they retire?

I see Federer retiring at the end of this season or Wimby 19...at the latest.

The others will keep on playing but they have reached the end of teh road. Djoko still has a chance to win slams. If anything I thought his shots were better this year than before...his serve was his only problem.

I think Federer will only be outlasted by Djokovic, who will come back but face defeat by an emergent generation.

Murray will go once the hip becomes terminal.

Nadal will go once he sees Slams going for good and hope of overhauling Federer vanish.

Federer will play until at least end of next season, back permitting. If he can be a participant at the business end he will carry on as long as possible, he simply prefers the tennis life to a non-tennis life. The kids are young enough and there are still aspirational objectives like 10th Wimbledon, setting Slam bar beyond reasonable possibility of capture, breaking Connors records.

So I go Murray, Nadal, Federer, Djokovic

If he stays fit, I see Federer retiring at the end of 2019 - I don't think he'd plan to retire mid-season at Wimbledon unless it is forced on him.

I'd expect Nadal go on into 2020 provided he stays fit, although I would not expect him to be a realistic challenger at slams after RG 2019.

Muzza/Djoko are both too up in the air with such uncertainty about their fitness - assuming that they can regain fitness in the course of this year I'd think the same about them as for Nadal except I'd expect them to be competitive at slams for a bit longer than him.

Very difficult to call as medicine seems to be able to perform miracles...at least with Nadal.

Federer has done so well to last this long, he is a miracle himself.

So the race is among Nadal, Djokovic and Murray.

And the answer is...no idea!

My gut feeling is telling me Fed, Murray, Nadal, Djokovic.

I'd say: Federer, Murray, Nadal, Djokovic

Perhaps an even more interesting question: who'll finally win a slam?

noleisthebest wrote:Very difficult to call as medicine seems to be able to perform miracles...at least with Nadal.

disgraceful post, one more in your sad collection

naxroy wrote:

noleisthebest wrote:Very difficult to call as medicine seems to be able to perform miracles...at least with Nadal.

disgraceful post, one more in your sad collection

Give it a rest, naxroy and stop crying like a big baby.
This is not v2.

noleisthebest wrote:

naxroy wrote:

noleisthebest wrote:Very difficult to call as medicine seems to be able to perform miracles...at least with Nadal.

disgraceful post, one more in your sad collection

Give it a rest, naxroy and stop crying like a big baby.
This is not v2.

its you crying everyday about a tennis player

Murray obviously depends on the hip. If it just doesn’t recover, then he will be first. If it does, the year off might mean he plays longer than he might otherwise have done. I’m going to be optimistic and say:

Federer (2020) - he definitely won’t retire before the Olympics barring injury
Nadal (2020)
Murray (2022)
Djokovic (2023)

Dont know the years, but:

Djoko - if elbow operation
Andy - if hip replacement
Fed - next year probably
Nadal - will keep going cause he is a sad fuck with no friend and wants to outdo Fed GS

It's hard to say.  I'd go with Federer... but Djok and Murray are looking like they're on the way out competitive wise.  And Nadal is, apparently, falling apart for the 1000th time.  

Nadal - will keep going cause he is a sad fuck with no friend and wants to outdo Fed GS

This is true.  Nadal will play until his legs are amputated.  Beating Fed's record, even with 15 French Opens, is all the narcissist can think of.

hahahaha 15 RG on a wheel chair and totally bald, bionic legs, can see that I swear hahaah

On that point though, if it becomes obvious to Nadal that he’s done (say gets beaten at RG that removes the reason to keep doing whatever it is that’ll having hobbling around like an aged man at 50.

That’s why I see Fed playing in 2020; he’s only doing it because he loves doing it.

Nadal 2025.

hihihih true story this one.

Yeah, but he”ll make a move to really long shorts a few years before so it’s covered up.
Thanks for the heads up. We can be vigilant now.

bogbrush wrote:On that point though, if it becomes obvious to Nadal that he’s done (say gets beaten at RG that removes the reason to keep doing whatever it is that’ll having hobbling around like an aged man at 50.

That’s why I see Fed playing in 2020; he’s only doing it because he loves doing it.

I think both of them are very driven by a desire to be the slam record holder at the end.  Nadal is still at the races, but it must be getting tighter each year, especially with Federer maintaining such good form and the AO being settled in as a medium-fast surface.  I also agree that competing in the 2020 Olympics would be a logical goal for Federer (fitness permitting).

I'd agree that its probably a bit more about pure love with Federer than with Nadal, he's probably taking less risks with his future physical health and looks to have accommodated touring with what will be his future family life so that nothing important seems to be 'on hold' whilst he continues to play.  Also, whilst not downplaying the fitness his footwork needs and the fact that his defence is still superb, his tendency/ability to play shorter points makes his matches less gruelling.

It's interesting to look back at Agassi - he was #1 aged 32 at the beginning of 2003 and won his last slam that year.  He remained competitive at a high level until 2005.  I thought he could have bowed out a bit better than the rather schmaltzy farewell tour of 2006, but many will disagree and on any view it was hardly embarrassing.  I think 2020 looks a pretty realistic final year for both of Fedal when one looks at their current form, fitness, and playing styles - they'll be, respectively, 34 with c.1,200 matches and 39 with c.1,500 matches.  Surely by then, whatever the state of their respective slam tallies, neither of them can truly expect to be really competitive at slams anymore....?

With Djoko and Andy I find it impossible to say beyond believing that if either of them can get fit again he'd go on longer than 2020.  Certainly both would love to compete at the 2020 Olympics.

For me:

Federer
Nadal
Murray
Djokovic

I think Federer will call time this year. I think 20 is a strong likelihood and good way to go.

Nadal I think it's appetite of the results are not there, similarly with Sampras will see him trying to go on a high.

Murray and Djokovic for me it's about how long their bodies will hold up. Think Djokovic is better conditioned hence I think he will be the last to go.

Crazy to think the FO might be minus the big boys!

legendkillar wrote:Crazy to think the FO might be minus the big boys!

Fed will be No:1 seed maybe? Might risk a little, though I would trade another W for a RG this year, 2 RG wouldn't look bad on him, enough of W.

Nah. 10 W’s. Take it to the max, end all debates for all time.

Stick the mudfest where it doesn’t shine.

At his age, I'm not being picky, whatever GS come, more then welcome.

But for this year a AO,W,USO would suffice and a new guy taking RG 

bogbrush wrote:On that point though, if it becomes obvious to Nadal that he’s done (say gets beaten at RG that removes the reason to keep doing whatever it is that’ll having hobbling around like an aged man at 50.

That’s why I see Fed playing in 2020; he’s only doing it because he loves doing it.

I am 99% sure he won't be playing in 2020. If he does it will be Wimby only.

Olympics Tenez. If he’s playing in 2019, he will definitely play to the 2020 Olympics.

legendkillar wrote:I think Federer will call time this year.

Why would he do that?  Rafa, Nole and Andy all seem to be more injured than he is, and everyone else has barely half the ranking points Fed does (even though he skipped clay last year).  There is so much gulf between him and the field, that he would be crazy to be retiring now.  At his age, things can change very quickly - injuries and whatnot.  But other than that, why would he retire?  I think planning for a CYGS in 2019 would seem more realistic (not that I am being serious, but you get my point).

summerblues wrote:

legendkillar wrote:I think Federer will call time this year.

Why would he do that?  Rafa, Nole and Andy all seem to be more injured than he is, and everyone else has barely half the ranking points Fed does (even though he skipped clay last year).  There is so much gulf between him and the field, that he would be crazy to be retiring now.  At his age, things can change very quickly - injuries and whatnot.  But other than that, why would he retire?  I think planning for a CYGS in 2019 would seem more realistic (not that I am being serious, but you get my point).

Why would he not? Regardless of the injuries to Nole, Andy and Rafa, he isn't going to take the rest of the field for granted. No-one knows the extent of Nole or Rafa's 'injuries' so purely speculative. A CYGS?? The guy skipped Clay last season. I can't see all of sudden he's going to start playing Clay again. Nole, Rafa or Andy not being there I doubt will play a significant part in his decision making. All that needs to happen is him get drawn into long matches eg Thiem on Clay and that's a lot of energy out of the door. He looked cooked during Montreal last year and that's even with a break from the Clay. Why would he want to chase a CYGS if he believes that's a step too far?

This is what, his 20th year on tour? That's a long time. I don't question his passion for a second, but there comes time when he might feel enough is enough and going out when the going's good is the best way. do you really think he'd want to be forced out by injury?

1- Federer
2- Nadal
3- Murray
4- Djokovic

Know, Federer is now only 119 match wins was short of Jimmy Connors record.

What do you think? A successful 2018 and 2019 to pass one of the records most thought unapproachable.

I'm sure Federer would like all the big records when he's done and knows what they are, but he is sensible enough to take each match as it comes, to understand that only by enjoying himself and staying fit in the here and now has he any chance of keeping going.

He won 52 times last year - he'll almost certainly fall short of that this year and next - so if he's going to approach Connors's match win haul he'll need to play competitively into 2020 on any view.  He'll almost certainly not match Connors's 109 tournament wins from his current 95, although an amazing 100+ should be in reach.

First things first - he needs to play well enough to beat Chung, preferably without being taken the distance.  Then he's a tough match away from 20 - a match he'll know how to win but could easily lose.  Were he able to do that, surely he'd create an unbridgeable gap for a 31-yr-old Nadal whose exit here means that his future slam chances are probably limited to RG and USO, and who would realistically have to take 5 from the next 5 real chances he gets.

All through this, none of Fed's potential opponents are as devastating as his back can be at just a moment's notice.

Fingers crossed....

bogbrush wrote:Know, Federer is now only 119 match wins was short of Jimmy Connors record.

What do you think? A successful 2018 and 2019 to pass one of the records most thought unapproachable.

Of course he wants to break it and play as long as he possibly can...not so much for breaking those fringe records but for deeply loving the game (ok and cash )

In my wildest dreams I hope he makes it to 2020.

I am certain he doesn't care a iota about Connors' records. I think, YE#1, 20, 9W are way above those ridiculous numbers Connors achieved in an embryonic pro-tour! .

I don’t think Connors ever enters his head. I wasn’t thinking of them in terms of his aims, but of amazing things that sad fans might get interested in.

bogbrush wrote:I don’t think Connors ever enters his head. I wasn’t thinking of them in terms of his aims, but of amazing things that sad fans might get interested in.

I agree that he's probably not bothered by the monster record of match wins, but I think he is aware of where he stands in the "tournaments won" category and thinks it's a biggish deal.  Behind slam numbers, winning a calendar slam, and weeks spent at #1, to have the most tournament wins is pretty impressive - even more impressive if he gets close to Connors who moved in an era when the top players were more often spread out in small draws on opposite sides of the world.  That said, Fed's tournament focus is still on Slams and Masters, not pot-hunting for little ones.

Again, echoing what you said, I think his overwhelming focus is on his health and enjoying himself and trusting that everything else will then take care of itself - but I'm sure parts of the 'everything else' are very very important to him, such as hanging on to the slam record.

legendkillar wrote:do you really think he'd want to be forced out by injury?

Play while you can and go when you can play no more.  Even when he is not winning, his game is fun to watch.  I hope he stays for as long as there is any hope that he might add to his slam tally, but preferably longer than that.  Definitely would not want him to go while he is still in the top 5-10.