Can Federer Win Slam Number 20?

Of course he can.  But will he?  I would say yes, but he needs to do it quick.

From what I saw in 2018, it is going to be very difficult.

Federer only played to his high standard and full potential in AO/IW//Miami.

He was fresh and full of zest.

His body didn’t stand in his way as it did for the rest of the season.

In London, WTF, he looked like he was held by sellotape.

I have a feeling his body can collapse at any time now.
The game is extremely physically demanding now and the tennis he flies requires 100% fitness.
Not to mention freshness, both mental and physical.

Full credit to him for the burning desire, the pain he is enduring and all the work he is putting in getting himself as ready as he can possibly be...so he can’t point to himself and say - you haven’t clocked all the miles you needed on the treadmill etc.

His heart is still very young.

Fed’s body is like a German car that has done his due mileage and is now running on pure quality of its components & engineering.

I personally doubt he can. It will have to have all stars aligned like in 2017.

1 - 6 months rest...(not going to happen in 2018)
2 - 2 day rest before the final (AO 17) or a very light schedule like in Wimbledon with one player withdrawing.
3 - The road runners still off peak and youngsters still too young.

He deserves a 20th but I personally doubt he will. Maybe teh AO as it is most likely to hold those 3 conds. Though being number 2 means Nadal will have the 2 day rest before the final....if he gets there...and Wimbledon if his back holds.

I thought AO would be the best chance, too.
Especially as conditions stay the same as last year, plus this:

http://www.couriermail.com.au/sport/tennis/rafael-nadal-under-serious-injury-cloud-ahead-of-australian-summer-of-tennis/news-story/c308ab9de64970f0c466b14bc7a9d4cd


Though you never know with Nadal and his mind games.

He has a fair chance. The answer to the question is clearly yes.

He doesn’t need an incredibly easy run, after all AO 17 was brutal (only, I think, 2nd man to beat 4 top-10 seeds on the way). He just needs favourable conditions, a fit body, and he could do with Djokovic not being around as he can extend everything too far.

If he gets a draw as easy as Nadal did in US Open 2017, he'll do it with one leg.

Daniel wrote:If he gets a draw as easy as Nadal did in US Open 2017, he'll do it with one leg.

Yeah but only Nadal gets those draws!

Tenez wrote:

Daniel wrote:If he gets a draw as easy as Nadal did in US Open 2017, he'll do it with one leg.

Yeah but only Nadal gets those draws!

Nope. Nadal 2017 draw was extremely easy, but everyone gets easy/open draws. Even Fed does, Muarry too. They all do in course of time. But they don't make use of all those. Fed should easily have won his 7TH WTF but let it slip being complacent. USOPen 2014 was his for the taking, didn't do it.

None of those were anywhere near as easy as Nadal's US Open 2017.  Not even close. And the WTF isn't a slam.

I thought he looked smooth yesterday. Encouraging.

bogbrush wrote:I thought he looked smooth yesterday. Encouraging.

Yes he did look smooth and very eager to play.

And his best set was the first one when he was fresh.

He smothered Kachanov and made him nervous (or maybe that was just Katchanov being nervous to start with).

As the match went on, Federer had to run a lot more and retrieve Kachanovs FH and BH bombs, not to mention the serve...and he only managed to come on top in the TB.

He looked sweaty and drained.

And yes, tired.

On top of him being almost 37, his particular style of play is very exhausting.
More mentally than physically, and  the mental side catches quickly with the body, hence the dips etc.

His footwork is phenomenal, just pay attention it in the next match.

All those tiny little steps cost.

Everything about Federer is fine tuned, and whem he gets going and roaring and flying he burns rocket fuel.

Then he should retire right now because there's no point turning up to play 5 set matches.

bogbrush wrote:Then he should retire right now because there's no point turning up to play 5 set matches.

Aye, his physical collapse in recent months is nothing short of tragic.

barrystar wrote:

bogbrush wrote:Then he should retire right now because there's no point turning up to play 5 set matches.

Aye, his physical collapse in recent months is nothing short of tragic.

Well the two of you are obviously not able to distinguish when Federer is flying and merely playing tennis.

Yesterday was a difficult match, quite physical in the second set.

Ever since Toronto last year, I see Federer as a player whose body is almost being held by a sticky tape.

He simply can’t play the entire slam with 100% freshness any more. Not even week one probably, depends on the draw.

Of course he is as fit as he can be and playing his finest, richest tennis, but he gets exhausted very quickly in a match now.

That doesn’t mean he can’t play and win, but it’s a shame (and at the same only natural)
he is struggling and putting a brave face on it all, such is his passion for the game.

But you're not talking about an entire Slam. You're saying he's tired after 1 set of Hopman tennis.

I say it's ridiculous but if you're right then it's completely absurd that he turn up at a Slam and hope to get through 7 best-of-5 matches. Completely stupid, so he should retire forthwith.

This is only logical nitb.

No reason to retire if he is not injured seriously.

He is good enough to win tournaments with 90%.

Unlike some players.

You’re trying to have it both ways but it’s unsustainable. A man tired after a set of exho+ tennis isn’t a contender.

As I keep saying though, he wasn’t tired.

As I also keep saying is that you don’t seem to appreciate now tough it is for Federer to play his 100% tennis. The tennis that sends us all nuts.

And how demanding tennis in this particular era, with barely any  easy matches due to everyone being able to keep the ball in play as long as they like more or less thanks to spin and modern strings.

Week one in slams used to be a walk in the park before super fit generation aka roadrunners came to scene.


It’s a miracle he is playing the way he is, still the best, 4 tennis generations after he started.

Federer has a patch of skin back/side of his neck that goes quite flushed when he is tired.

His eyes look wide and a bit worried, too.

And he loses half a step on the fh now and then.

I am surprised you can’t see it.

Especially as you say you play the game.

All that is just fluff. I’m simply telling you that IF the guy cannot handle a set of Hopman tennis without degradation then he should retire to the exhibition / seniors tour because in the big boys game you have to win successive 5 set matches.

Like he did repeatedly last year.

You decide which it is; genuine contender or pensioner. All I’m saying is you can’t have both.

I don't pretend to know what shape Federer is in this season, but after Canada, when nitb spied the beginning of his tragic decline he was P19 W17 L2 including winning in Shanghai and Basel.

After 20 years on tour he and his team know what it takes to be able to enjoy playing on tour; if he has failed to train himself into a state sufficient to get through an exhibition match he'll scratch from the AO.

barrystar wrote:I don't pretend to know what shape Federer is in this season, but after Canada, when nitb spied the beginning of his tragic decline
he was P19 W17 L2 including winning in Shanghai and Basel.

I don’t remember using word “decline” let alone tragic ...not even with Nadal, somehow not in my vocab...

As for the verb “pretend”, again the eyes don’t and can’t pretend.

You either see something or not.

And I sadly see an ageing Federer.

As I said a month or so ago, it annoyed me when people referred to Federer “and old man” ...for years!!!
But since Toronto, that’s how I finally see him, as well.

He now looks like a dad who puts on his football kit on Saturday morning, goes to the park to kick the ball with his teenage sons.

First half an hour is great, but after that he is running on fumes and a bit of old school dribbling skils.

barrystar wrote:

After 20 years on tour he and his team know what it takes to be able to enjoy playing on tour; if he has failed to train himself into a state sufficient to get through an exhibition match he'll scratch from the AO.

Of course they know...but they can’t make his 37 year old legs feel 10 years younger.
That’s all.

Time to retire then, sadly, as he obviously will be running on fumes midway through round 1.

I'm gonna go with yes.

Tenez wrote:

Daniel wrote:If he gets a draw as easy as Nadal did in US Open 2017, he'll do it with one leg.

Yeah but only Nadal gets those draws!

Cilic was at least a very worthy finalist... unlike the cake walk Nadal got.  But Fed still lucked out.  FINALLY.

I forgot about this thread!

Well, I’m glad Fed himself answered the question.

Last year he was super fresh but had a very difficult draw, though, plus he didn’t have any pressure, was almost an underdog if ever he was one...

This year he had the confidence he could do it, he was playing well, another year in those legs and a better draw (due to the seeding, of course, not rigging).

And he managed to do it.

I wonder if he was to win it again next year what kind of scenario would have to present itself to allow him it.

Right now I can’t imagine it at all.

Why not? The main kryptonite now is a fully fit Djokovic extending rallies, though we’ve not yet seen what super-aggressive Fed does there, and we don’t know if that kryptonite will exist again.

If the body stays fit he’ll be a threat until 40. It’s just about health.

I don't think he will be a threat in slams at that age.  In fact, he very likely won't be playing. This year looks to be his last, but any injury now and he will call it a day.

Its definitely not his last as he’s declaring an intention to play AO next year.
I do agree that it’s injury that’ll one day stop him. He’ll get something that he says is just too hard a road back. Could be next week, could be in two years.