La Finale inattendue!!!! Here we go again!

The unexpected final!

11 years after their first slam finale here we go again. Back then I thought we would have 4 or 5 years max of their rivalry and even thought that Nadal would be the one to retire first. I got that wrong again though Nadal almost disappeared since 2013 while Federer was still involved in slams finals. So I guess not completely wrong.

Anyhow as Federer says it's not about what happened yesterday it's what's going to happen tomorrow. He will leave everything on the court and we can be sure that Nadal will match that and more.

Nadal is now 31 so I guess he might feel his 2 5 setters a bit more than 5 years ago....but He is still going to be way more fitter than Federer who seems even to have a leg injury. His short rallies woudl tend to confirm that. As ever he will need a great serve to save as much energy as possible.

I wanted to work out the tournament distance covered by each player but the stats Nadal v Dimi are missing. I also don't believe the stats about Federer and Stan rallying 4m on average. There has been a problem is recording this obviously. but it is fair to say that Nadal has probably covered nearly twice as much ground as Federer in this tournament.

So how do I see the match panning out? Well as usual. I think Fed can win the first set and maybe the first 2......but I doubt he will win the last set.

Let's hope I am wrong.

Oh and for those still in teh game.

Mixed Doubles - Final
Abigail Spears (USA)40
Juan Sebastian Cabal (COL) 40
vs.
Sania Mirza (IND) [20]
Ivan Dodig (CRO) [20]
Not Before: 7:30 PM
Men's Singles - Final
Roger Federer (SUI) [170]
vs.
Rafael Nadal (ESP) [90]

No joker. Enough points out there.

Thanks, t, glad you did the thread, I was going to ask LS to give us men's final early today as last I gatecrashed the party last time and he was not happy. 


Not a lot to say...


My hope lies in three things:


lighter balls. OK, this helps Nadal, too, but more Federer as with the last year's balls he'd have no chance. Now we see his FH is flying through the air again, not slowing down past the net point.


umpring: I am hoping Rod Laver and Oz authorities will give Fed a chance to win this by clamping down on Nadal's time abuse.
I think Nadal's had his share of privilege and that at least this once, the match will be played BY THE RULES


Fed to be relaxed. 
He does appear to be refreshed and young from inside and that was just great to witness all tournament.

How will he start tomorrow? 
Well, I'd like to think he'll put the past behind him and give us the match of his life.




ALBATROSS, FLYYYYYYY!!!!!!! 

Well let's see if Federer believes those words!

The key points for a Federer win are:

Win the first set. Only once has Federer beaten Nadal in a bo5 when losing the first set.

BP conversion. Against Djokovic in 2015 at Wimbledon and USO he had a total of 30 BPs and converted only 5. Can't afford that against Nadal.

Short court balls. Dimi was all over it against Nadal and punished the short court balls. He did this so well vs Murray and needs to do the same against Rafa.

High first serve percentage. Needs to serve near 70% and pressure Rafas serve.

Serving is definitely the key.

And crucially after first two sets, when Federer will have exhausted all his freshness.

Nadal will be bombing his BH like never before tomorrow, trying to weaken the arm.

Fed's shots require immaculate timing...so fresh serving arm is essential.

And behind it all is the mind. 

I really think Fed will give his best shot tomorrow.

Key world..RELAX!

My thinking is, if Dimi nearly beat Nadal yesterday, then Federer should at least have a very good chance to.

Against him: his legs are 10 years older than Dimi's.
For him: he has better shots, all of them.

And win or lose.....We woud still fancy his chances at Wimbledon....shoudl they provide smaller balls too.

NITB wrote:My thinking is, if Dimi nearly beat Nadal yesterday, then Federer should at least have a very good chance to.

Against him: his legs are 10 years older than Dimi's.
For him: he has better shots, all of them.

Fed can't do what Dimi can: maintain a high level for more than 4 hours. In fact, Federer's level will go down after 90 minutes. That has been the case for the last 4/5 years or so.

Thing is: when did Federer win, when he was expected to lose?

Sure, this AO is great no one expected it, but match by match..was there a surprise, really?
He beat Murray a few times in a couple slams last few years but then again, that was Murray. He would beat Murray tomorrow too.
He beat Djoko at Wimbledon 2012, but that wasn't Djoko's best year and on his worst surface.
In his 30'ties he beat Nadal a few times, but always in Bo3 and usually indoors.

I can honestly say there has been only 1 occasion when he won when the odds (or at least my odds) were against him: the semi of RG 2011.
What are the odds something like that happens again 6 years later? Against Nadal?
He must indeed play the match of his life, but what are the odds that to happen at 35?

It's so damn unlucky he got the easier finals during the years of dominance (Gozales, Baghdatis, Roddick) and in the years he finally could use an easier final, he gets the worst possible opponants.

BTW: my argument is actually a compliment. Because i usually expect him to win, even at 35. I know i can't take it for granted but he's that good.

nadal in straight sets
i would be surprised if roger were to take a set off him tomorrow

gallery play wrote:It's so damn unlucky he got the easier finals during the years of dominance (Gozales, Baghdatis, Roddick) and in the years he finally could use an easier final, he gets the worst possible opponants.

Yes. I also think he would have beaten Djoko in Wimbledon 15.....before the final....But 3 sets v Murray in the semi was enough to make him tired 2 days later.

Fed's chance this year is that Nadal will be nervous and Fed knows how to play him now. I m pretty sure that Fed will win a set...if he is injury free which is not even sure. Maybe that extra day will help him...enough.

Call me crazy, but I am beginning to believe that maybe Ljubicic is having stg to do with Fed being relaxed since his comeback.

Maybe not entirely, but as a fellow player, someone who
puts zero pressure on him with his presence.

Edberg was great, but maybe too sterile and fragile for this era.
Ivan has been through a real war, he's kind of lived, has the right perspective on things...I dunno...it's a fine thing the inner balance and I just sense Fed's got it right at last. His face is almost childlike these days.

I am imagining, he must have had lots of enjoyment with his children in the last six months, spent time in nature, communed with the unniverse...flushed out all the stress, scars, inflammations in his body...


His break and Nadal's break will have been very different, no?

Tenez wrote:And win or lose.....We woud still fancy his chances at Wimbledon....shoudl they provide smaller balls too.

Absolutely.

But ther is no guarantee of anything at this stage for him.

The thing is, he looks so happy and genuinelly surprised he is in the final. And I think that's the best bit.

If anything, having two days to think about it may have only pressed the pressure button in his head, but I hope not.

I actually believe this match has nithing to do with who can or cannot win.
It's cosmic.

Veejay wrote:nadal in straight sets
i would be surprised if roger were to take a set off him tomorrow

Do you know stg we don't?

gallery play wrote:

NITB wrote:My thinking is, if Dimi nearly beat Nadal yesterday, then Federer should at least have a very good chance to.

Against him: his legs are 10 years older than Dimi's.
For him: he has better shots, all of them.

Fed can't do what Dimi can: maintain a high level for more than 4 hours. In fact, Federer's level will go down after 90 minutes. That has been the case for the last 4/5 years or so.

Thing is: when did Federer win, when he was expected to lose?

Sure, this AO is great no one expected it, but match by match..was there a surprise, really?
He beat Murray a few times in a couple slams last few years but then again, that was Murray. He would beat Murray tomorrow too.
He beat Djoko at Wimbledon 2012, but that wasn't Djoko's best year and on his worst surface.
In his 30'ties he beat Nadal a few times, but always in Bo3 and usually indoors.

I can honestly say there has been only 1 occasion when he won when the odds (or at least my odds) were against him: the semi of RG 2011.
What are the odds something like that happens again 6 years later? Against Nadal?
He must indeed play the match of his life, but what are the odds that to happen at 35?

It's so damn unlucky he got the easier finals during the years of dominance (Gozales, Baghdatis, Roddick) and in the years he finally could use an easier final, he gets the worst possible opponants.

BTW: my argument is actually a compliment. Because i usually expect him to win, even at 35. I know i can't take it for granted but he's that good.

And so you should!

I even think we haven't seen Federer's best, his perfect match.
Now that his mind is fresh and he looks so goody and happy, maybe he will finally be able to draw out that right algorithm for tomorrow.

It would be tragic for him to lose to Nadal again.

Not because he would not win another slam, but because it would be a loss to him.

Btw, how do you explain his chumminess with Nadal?
I still don't get it.
And I feel Nadal's been abusing it for years.

NITB wrote:

Veejay wrote:nadal in straight sets
i would be surprised if roger were to take a set off him tomorrow

Do you know stg we don't?

i'm just preparing myself for the worst that way i wont be gutted 
best not to have any expectation so you wont be disappointed

Tenez wrote:

gallery play wrote:It's so damn unlucky he got the easier finals during the years of dominance (Gozales, Baghdatis, Roddick) and in the years he finally could use an easier final, he gets the worst possible opponants.

Yes. I also think he would have beaten Djoko in Wimbledon 15.....before the final....But 3 sets v Murray in the semi was enough to make him tired 2 days later.

Fed's chance this year is that Nadal will be nervous and Fed knows how to play him now. I m pretty sure that Fed will win a set...if he is injury free which is not even sure. Maybe that extra day will help him...enough.

Even last summer in Wimbledon we saw Federer go for some odd shot selections vs Johnson.

The kind of simole mistakes you don't expect from a genius, just like all those wasted BPs.

I don't know how to explain those but by a tired, eaten out by pressure mind.

So that's why this 6 months break may prove to be his saver. We'll see...

Veejay wrote:

NITB wrote:

Veejay wrote:nadal in straight sets
i would be surprised if roger were to take a set off him tomorrow

Do you know stg we don't?

i'm just preparing myself for the worst that way i wont be gutted 
best not to have any expectation so you wont be disappointed

I am an incurable optimist!

Maybe more painful than a Federer loss it will be Nadal with 15 slams and 2 wins minimum in every slam.

NITB wrote:Btw, how do you explain his chumminess with Nadal?
I still don't get it.
And I feel Nadal's been abusing it for years.

I don't like that "if you can't beat 'm, join 'm attitude"  eighter.  Although it's kinda admirable if you can show that much respect for the one who's basically designed to destroy you.

He must be having a big heart, or he's just soft

Tenez wrote:Maybe more painful than a Federer loss it will be Nadal with 15 slams and 2 wins minimum in every slam.

Those stats don't mean much to me. It's more annoying that another loss to Nadal will start a new lobby that Nadal is greater than Federer. All those so called pundits will be all over it.

Roger practiced indoors today away from fans and media. I really hope he's not carrying injury niggles!

legendkillar wrote:Roger practiced indoors today away from fans and media. I really hope he's not carrying injury niggles!

I think it's good, means he is really focused and wants to avoid any possible distractions.

gallery play wrote:

NITB wrote:Btw, how do you explain his chumminess with Nadal?
I still don't get it.
And I feel Nadal's been abusing it for years.

I don't like that "if you can't beat 'm, join 'm attitude"  eighter.  Although it's kinda admirable if you can show that much respect for the one who's basically designed to destroy you.

He must be having a big heart, or he's just soft

Nole doesn't like either Nadal or Federer, but likes Murray.

I can understand the respect bit from Federer, I mean even I respect Nadal's dedication...just this "number one fan"  thing...he must be soft...or just "super" happy (did anyone notice his overuse of word "super" in his interviews this AO?...even Dimi's copied it...)

Doesn't matter...just another quirky thing in that rivalry!

Why would Craig Tiley have to defend speeding up courts...who has been moaning about it?

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/sport/tennis/australian-open-courts-werent-sped-up-for-federer/news-story/b6e4daf34d267cc533c894a8bd87af50

This only means balls are different, hehe

Nadal, Cabal
Bulge: Fed, Mirza

NITB wrote:

legendkillar wrote:Roger practiced indoors today away from fans and media. I really hope he's not carrying injury niggles!

I think it's good, means he is really focused and wants to avoid any possible distractions.

No. most likely injured.

Good luck Roger, you will need it!

I am not getting up at 3:30am for this one.  When I wake up in the morning it will either be finished or else it will be a long match and I catch the end of it.  I expect it will be finished by then.

gallery play wrote:

Tenez wrote:Maybe more painful than a Federer loss it will be Nadal with 15 slams and 2 wins minimum in every slam.

Those stats don't mean much to me. It's more annoying that another loss to Nadal will start a new lobby that Nadal is greater than Federer. All those so called pundits will be all over it.

What will Nadull be doing at 35?  Claiming his pension.  There's the difference in greatness.

I expect to see Federer lose one way or another, but it will likely be the way I mentioned with Federer playing his worst match of the whole tournament.

The time is nearly upon us. Roger to give his friend a good hiding today. 

3 comfortable sets for Roger unless he gets his usual Nadal-nerves and then it's still Roger's title but in 4 sets.

Number 18 is nigh!

Listening to Federer saying he started to believe he could win the title after the Berdych match.

Keep that belief young man!

Very annoyed I could be losing Eurosport end of the month. Sky and discovery you greedy bastards!

legendkillar wrote:Very annoyed I could be losing Eurosport end of the month. Sky and discovery you greedy bastards!

I was talking about this just yesterday with a friend of mine who is a sky customer. He's  very upset he is going to lose a bundle of channels he watches and yet get no discount from sky. I gave up on sky nearly 10 years ago now. It's all Football football football money money money.

garthmarenghi wrote:

legendkillar wrote:Very annoyed I could be losing Eurosport end of the month. Sky and discovery you greedy bastards!

I was talking about this just yesterday with a friend of mine who is a sky customer. He's  very upset he is going to lose a bundle of channels he watches and yet get no discount from sky. I gave up on sky nearly 10 years ago now. It's all Football football football money money money.

Well depends which side you fall on. Discovery claim Sky are trying to recoup costs for the football and Sky claim Discovery are doing the same after they paid a ton for the Olympics.

I knocked my Sky bill down and will do it again should I lose those channels.

Butterflies.

Already...Nadal typical luck.

Come on Fed, we need first set quick here.

First love hold there.

Magic point by Federer!!

Come on like that, crush himmmmmmm

Break!

Break break break yesssssss

BREAKS!

HAS TO HOLD NOW

Just tuned in.
First point I see is Federer's awesome FH that sets him for the break point.
Federer is calm.

So far, perfection!
Two love holds!

I'm still not going to say a thing or take anything for granted until I see Fed holding that trophy. Come on Fed!!

This will be an obliteration. Nadal will have no answer to Federer.

Break now!!! Serve first next set!!!

Daniel wrote:I'm still not going to say a thing or take anything for granted until I see Fed holding that trophy. Come on Fed!!

Haha! Wish I could pal!

Nadal not finding any rhythm on serve at all.