SF Qualifying scenarios for Group A
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SF Qualifying scenarios for Group A
by sphairistike Thu Nov 08, 2012 12:42 am
Hi guys,
Thanks to the amazing effort from Berdych (helped by an erratic Tsonga) today, the group A was sent to the wire, so I'll try my best to write the various scenarios (before the ATP does
) for the SF qualifications:
2. the positions when there is a tie are due to the H2H (in parenthesis matches won-lost)
3. & 4. set win percentages pretty much explain everything else, in case of tie between 2 after that I assumed H2H matters first (not number of games, so maybe worth checking), this time in parenthesis I'll be showing the sets won-lost:
3. the four scenarios are:
). What do you think? Which scenario(s) is/are most likely? (Btw, if we assume equal probabilities between outcomes of a match in terms of who wins and whether it is in straight sets, as the rankings are pretty close, then we obviously get that Nole is most likely to qualify with 93.75% followed by Murray with 56.25%, then Berd with 43.75% and last Tsonga with 6.25%)
Thanks to the amazing effort from Berdych (helped by an erratic Tsonga) today, the group A was sent to the wire, so I'll try my best to write the various scenarios (before the ATP does
) for the SF qualifications:- Nole and Murray both win: group standing: 1. Nole (3-0) 2. Murray (2-1) 3. Berd (1-2) 4. Tsonga (0-3)
- Nole and Murray both lose: group standing: 1. Berd (2-1) 2. Nole (2-1) 3. Tsonga (1-2) 4. Murray (1-2)
- Nole wins and Murray loses: four sub scenarios
- Nole loses and Murray wins: also four sub scenarios
2. the positions when there is a tie are due to the H2H (in parenthesis matches won-lost)
3. & 4. set win percentages pretty much explain everything else, in case of tie between 2 after that I assumed H2H matters first (not number of games, so maybe worth checking), this time in parenthesis I'll be showing the sets won-lost:
3. the four scenarios are:
- Both in straight: group standing: 1. Nole (6-1) 2. Tsonga (3-4) 3. Murray (3-5) 4. Berd (3-5)
- Nole only in straight: group standing: 1. Nole (6-1) 2. Murray (4-5) 3. Berd (3-5) 4. Tsonga (3-5)
- Murray only in straight: group standing: 1. Nole (6-2) 2. Berd (4-5) 3. Tsonga (3-4) 4. Murray (3-5)
- Neither in straight: group standing: 1. Nole (6-2) 2. Murray (4-5) 3. Berd (4-5) 4. Tsonga (3-5)
- Both in straight: group standing: 1. Murray (5-3) 2. Berd (5-3) 3. Nole (4-3) 4. Tsonga
- Nole only in straight: group standing: 1. Berd (5-3) 2. Nole (4-3) 3. Murray (5-4) 4. Tsonga
- Murray only in straight: group standing: 1. Nole (5-3) 2. Murray (5-3) 3. Berd (5-4) 4. Tsonga
- Neither in straight: group standing: 1. Nole (5-3) 2. Murray (5-4) 3. Berd (5-4) 4. Tsonga
). What do you think? Which scenario(s) is/are most likely? (Btw, if we assume equal probabilities between outcomes of a match in terms of who wins and whether it is in straight sets, as the rankings are pretty close, then we obviously get that Nole is most likely to qualify with 93.75% followed by Murray with 56.25%, then Berd with 43.75% and last Tsonga with 6.25%)Last edited by sphairistike on Thu Nov 08, 2012 12:01 pm; edited 1 time in total (Reason for editing : Typo: 0-3 -> 1-2)
sphairistike- Posts : 589
Join date : 2012-08-20
Re: SF Qualifying scenarios for Group A
by Tenez Thu Nov 08, 2012 12:52 am
OUahh this is serious stuff! Thanks for that.
It's 1am here...I'll think about it tomorrow. Though I fear the time it gets me to understand it, we shoudl know the winners by then.
I think it's going to be very simple: DJoko 1 Murray 2 Berdych 3 Tsonga 4..
It's 1am here...I'll think about it tomorrow. Though I fear the time it gets me to understand it, we shoudl know the winners by then.
I think it's going to be very simple: DJoko 1 Murray 2 Berdych 3 Tsonga 4..
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Re: SF Qualifying scenarios for Group A
by sphairistike Thu Nov 08, 2012 12:54 am
Hehe 
That is 50% chance with the assumption at the end in parenthesis
That is 50% chance with the assumption at the end in parenthesis
sphairistike- Posts : 589
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Re: SF Qualifying scenarios for Group A
by noleisthebest Thu Nov 08, 2012 9:12 am
Hi Sphair, and condolances for having to put up with the Democrats for another 4 years
Noticed a mistake in your calcs:
I rekckon Nole tops the group, Murray second Berd third, Tsonga last with no wins.
Noticed a mistake in your calcs:
- Nole and Murray both win: group standing: 1. Nole (3-0) 2. Murray (2-1) 3. Berd (1-2) 4. Tsonga (0-3)
- Nole and Murray both lose: group standing: 1. Berd (2-1) 2. Nole (2-1) 3. Tsonga (1-2) 4. Murray (0-3)
- Nole wins and Murray loses: four sub scenarios
- Nole loses and Murray wins: also four sub scenarios
I rekckon Nole tops the group, Murray second Berd third, Tsonga last with no wins.
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Re: SF Qualifying scenarios for Group A
by noleisthebest Thu Nov 08, 2012 9:18 am
Not quite the group A talk, but I had a disturbing thought this morning:
A question for Federer fans and those who think he is the best but are not his fans:
Who do you think Fed would prefer to play in the semis: Murray or Djokovic (all hypothetical , but very probable scenarios)?
If Murray how likely is Fed's tank in his last match against Delpo on Saturday?
A question for Federer fans and those who think he is the best but are not his fans:
Who do you think Fed would prefer to play in the semis: Murray or Djokovic (all hypothetical , but very probable scenarios)?
If Murray how likely is Fed's tank in his last match against Delpo on Saturday?
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Join date : 2012-06-18
Re: SF Qualifying scenarios for Group A
by sphairistike Thu Nov 08, 2012 12:07 pm
noleisthebest wrote:Hi Sphair, and condolances for having to put up with the Democrats for another 4 years
Noticed a mistake in your calcs:In scenario 2 you have Murray as the last with a 0:3, that can't be as he has one win over Berdych. I attribute this slip of mind down to the stress following months of mind-numbing presidential campaign he,he.
- Nole and Murray both win: group standing: 1. Nole (3-0) 2. Murray (2-1) 3. Berd (1-2) 4. Tsonga (0-3)
- Nole and Murray both lose: group standing: 1. Berd (2-1) 2. Nole (2-1) 3. Tsonga (1-2) 4. Murray (0-3)
- Nole wins and Murray loses: four sub scenarios
- Nole loses and Murray wins: also four sub scenarios
I rekckon Nole tops the group, Murray second Berd third, Tsonga last with no wins.
Sorry, that was a slight typo due to copy and paste but the order is still correct as in scenario 2 Berdych beat Nole so they both have 2 wins 1 loss and their H2H favors Berdych while Murray losing to Tsonga ends up with 1 win and 2 losses, like Tsonga, but their H2H favors the latter. I edited my post to fix the typo
sphairistike- Posts : 589
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Re: SF Qualifying scenarios for Group A
by sphairistike Thu Nov 08, 2012 12:13 pm
noleisthebest wrote:Not quite the group A talk, but I had a disturbing thought this morning:
A question for Federer fans and those who think he is the best but are not his fans:
Who do you think Fed would prefer to play in the semis: Murray or Djokovic (all hypothetical , but very probable scenarios)?
If Murray how likely is Fed's tank in his last match against Delpo on Saturday?
I don't think he has a preference tbh, plus one RR match win is still 200 points, so why give it up? I don't think he would start thinking if I lose 200 points in RR I can make up for them by increasing my probability of winning 400 points in SF etc. It would be kind of absurd, don't you think?
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Re: SF Qualifying scenarios for Group A
by Tenez Thu Nov 08, 2012 12:36 pm
We know Fed won't tank on this one. He has played here 10 times and has been in very similar situations before and never tanked afa I know.
He will most likely have to play both Murray and Djoko and they are so similar that it doesn;t really matter.
However I think Federer woudl have benefitted from having Djoko and Murray in his group...cause he may have had an easier semi and final.
He may have had any other player than Murray and Djoko in the semi. and Murray and Djoko could have tired each other in the semi arriving in the final maybe exhausted. Having to face both Djoko and Murray in succession is certainly not going to be easy unless he can produce the kind of tennis like he played in 2010 and 2011 where the opponent simply is not allowed to touch the ball except on his own serve.
He will most likely have to play both Murray and Djoko and they are so similar that it doesn;t really matter.
However I think Federer woudl have benefitted from having Djoko and Murray in his group...cause he may have had an easier semi and final.
He may have had any other player than Murray and Djoko in the semi. and Murray and Djoko could have tired each other in the semi arriving in the final maybe exhausted. Having to face both Djoko and Murray in succession is certainly not going to be easy unless he can produce the kind of tennis like he played in 2010 and 2011 where the opponent simply is not allowed to touch the ball except on his own serve.
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Re: SF Qualifying scenarios for Group A
by sphairistike Thu Nov 08, 2012 10:35 pm
about 2 things:Fed qualified already!
And it's official on the ATP site, I was right about all scenarios
http://www.atpworldtour.com/Ranking/Finale%20SF%20Qualifications.aspx
1) Regardless of score, if N. DJOKOVIC defeats T. BERDYCH and A.
MURRAY defeats J. TSONGA, then N. DJOKOVIC wins the group and A. MURRAY
qualifies 2nd.
2) Regardless of score, if T. BERDYCH defeats N. DJOKOVIC and J.
TSONGA defeats A. MURRAY, then T. BERDYCH wins the group and N. DJOKOVIC
qualifies 2nd.
3) If N. DJOKOVIC defeats T. BERDYCH in 2 sets and J. TSONGA
defeats A. MURRAY in 2 sets, then N. DJOKOVIC wins the group and J.
TSONGA qualifies 2nd.
4) If N. DJOKOVIC defeats T. BERDYCH in 2 sets and J. TSONGA defeats
A. MURRAY in 3 sets, then N. DJOKOVIC wins the group and A. MURRAY
qualifies 2nd.
5) If N. DJOKOVIC defeats T. BERDYCH in 3 sets and J. TSONGA defeats
A. MURRAY in 2 sets, then N. DJOKOVIC wins the group and T. BERDYCH
qualifies 2nd.
6) If N. DJOKOVIC defeats T. BERDYCH in 3 sets and J. TSONGA defeats
A. MURRAY in 3 sets, then N. DJOKOVIC wins the group and A. MURRAY
qualifies 2nd.
7) If T. BERDYCH defeats N. DJOKOVIC in 2 sets and A. MURRAY defeats
J. TSONGA in 2 sets, then A. MURRAY wins the group and T. BERDYCH
qualifies 2nd.
8) If T. BERDYCH defeats N. DJOKOVIC in 2 sets and A. MURRAY defeats
J. TSONGA in 3 sets, then T. BERDYCH wins the group and N. DJOKOVIC
qualifies 2nd.
9) If T. BERDYCH defeats N. DJOKOVIC in 3 sets and A. MURRAY defeats
J. TSONGA in 2 sets, then N. DJOKOVIC wins the group and A. MURRAY
qualifies 2nd.
10) If T. BERDYCH defeats N. DJOKOVIC in 3 sets and A. MURRAY
defeats J. TSONGA in 3 sets, then N. DJOKOVIC wins the group and A.
MURRAY qualifies 2nd.
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Re: SF Qualifying scenarios for Group A
by noleisthebest Thu Nov 08, 2012 10:45 pm
Thanks, Sphair!
I must say I find all those combinations fascinating, good luck to those who have to work them out...I'll never forget first time WTF took place in London and when even Murray didn't have a clue whether he qualified (he didn't) for an hour or so.
I am almost convinced Fed had it all worked out before the match because he beat Delpo with the only possible score which was knocking Murray out.
I don't think Federer forgot Murray busting his guts out in TMC in Shanghai the year before (2008), where he was so desperate to beat Federer (he didn't need the win) and that was the only time I saw Fed receive MTO (backache massage or stg).
That was the time when Murray was having his breakthrough and was trying to get into Fed's head with building up their H2H....
Fed trounced him in AO final in their next match.
We all remember the:
"I can cry like Roger...."
So, I'll be dead keen to see their potential match on Sunday as I can't see beyond Novak topping group A and Fed topping group B.
What are the scenarios for Fed ending up second in the group?
I must say I find all those combinations fascinating, good luck to those who have to work them out...I'll never forget first time WTF took place in London and when even Murray didn't have a clue whether he qualified (he didn't) for an hour or so.
I am almost convinced Fed had it all worked out before the match because he beat Delpo with the only possible score which was knocking Murray out.
I don't think Federer forgot Murray busting his guts out in TMC in Shanghai the year before (2008), where he was so desperate to beat Federer (he didn't need the win) and that was the only time I saw Fed receive MTO (backache massage or stg).
That was the time when Murray was having his breakthrough and was trying to get into Fed's head with building up their H2H....
Fed trounced him in AO final in their next match.
We all remember the:
"I can cry like Roger...."
So, I'll be dead keen to see their potential match on Sunday as I can't see beyond Novak topping group A and Fed topping group B.
What are the scenarios for Fed ending up second in the group?
noleisthebest- Posts : 27907
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Re: SF Qualifying scenarios for Group A
by noleisthebest Fri Nov 09, 2012 12:57 am
Singles Group B qualification scenarios after the completion of the 2nd round of the event's group stage:
1)Regardless of score, if R. FEDERER defeats J. DEL POTRO and D. FERRER
defeats J. TIPSAREVIC, then R. FEDERER wins the group and D. FERRER
qualifies 2nd.
2) Regardless of score, if R. FEDERER defeats J. DEL
POTRO and J. TIPSAREVIC defeats D. FERRER, then R. FEDERER wins the
group and J. DEL POTRO qualifies 2nd.
3) Regardless of score, if J.
DEL POTRO defeats R. FEDERER and J. TIPSAREVIC defeats D. FERRER, then
J. DEL POTRO wins the group and R. FEDERER qualifies 2nd.
4) If J.
DEL POTRO defeats R. FEDERER in 2 sets and D. FERRER defeats J.
TIPSAREVIC in 2 sets, then J. DEL POTRO wins the group and R. FEDERER
qualifies 2nd.
5) If J. DEL POTRO defeats R. FEDERER in 2 sets and D.
FERRER defeats J. TIPSAREVIC in 3 sets, then J. DEL POTRO wins the
group and R. FEDERER qualifies 2nd.
6) If J. DEL POTRO defeats R.
FEDERER in 3 sets and D. FERRER defeats J. TIPSAREVIC in 2 sets, then R.
FEDERER wins the group and J. DEL POTRO qualifies 2nd.
7) If J. DEL
POTRO defeats R. FEDERER in 3 sets and D. FERRER defeats J. TIPSAREVIC
in 3 sets, then R. FEDERER wins the group and J. DEL POTRO qualifies
2nd.
So, who is it going to be Ferrer or Del Potro?
1)Regardless of score, if R. FEDERER defeats J. DEL POTRO and D. FERRER
defeats J. TIPSAREVIC, then R. FEDERER wins the group and D. FERRER
qualifies 2nd.
2) Regardless of score, if R. FEDERER defeats J. DEL
POTRO and J. TIPSAREVIC defeats D. FERRER, then R. FEDERER wins the
group and J. DEL POTRO qualifies 2nd.
3) Regardless of score, if J.
DEL POTRO defeats R. FEDERER and J. TIPSAREVIC defeats D. FERRER, then
J. DEL POTRO wins the group and R. FEDERER qualifies 2nd.
4) If J.
DEL POTRO defeats R. FEDERER in 2 sets and D. FERRER defeats J.
TIPSAREVIC in 2 sets, then J. DEL POTRO wins the group and R. FEDERER
qualifies 2nd.
5) If J. DEL POTRO defeats R. FEDERER in 2 sets and D.
FERRER defeats J. TIPSAREVIC in 3 sets, then J. DEL POTRO wins the
group and R. FEDERER qualifies 2nd.
6) If J. DEL POTRO defeats R.
FEDERER in 3 sets and D. FERRER defeats J. TIPSAREVIC in 2 sets, then R.
FEDERER wins the group and J. DEL POTRO qualifies 2nd.
7) If J. DEL
POTRO defeats R. FEDERER in 3 sets and D. FERRER defeats J. TIPSAREVIC
in 3 sets, then R. FEDERER wins the group and J. DEL POTRO qualifies
2nd.
So, who is it going to be Ferrer or Del Potro?
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Re: SF Qualifying scenarios for Group A
by sphairistike Fri Nov 09, 2012 4:17 pm
OK, so now that Nole won in straight sets he is assured of finishing first of Group A and Berdych is eliminated.
Only scenario where Murray is also eliminated is if Tsonga beats him in straight sets, in which case Tsonga goes through!
Tsonga (he'll need it)
Only scenario where Murray is also eliminated is if Tsonga beats him in straight sets, in which case Tsonga goes through!
Tsonga (he'll need it)
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Re: SF Qualifying scenarios for Group A
by Tenez Fri Nov 09, 2012 5:02 pm
Is that true? Can Tsonga still qualify if he wins in straight? THat would be fun!
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