Will 2016 Be Good Or Bad?

Tennis 2015 officially finished yesterday with Davis Cup final.

With a month of off-season - most players have spent last few weeks in tropical locations (here is where I do get a tiny bit jealous ) and will already be starting their preparations in the first week of December.



For  me, 2016 will be a big year of tennis for several reasons:

1) With Federer turning 35 in August, this may be the last year where we will witness him challenge for number one and slams.

Yes, I am  fully aware this is probably not likely to happen, but it is possible!
I expect him to be in tip-top physical shape again, and that excellent tennis and ever improving timing will carry on till 2017.

2) Return of Nadal. As WTF has shown us, he is ready to keep pushing to the top.
I do not expect him to reach it again, still, any small wobble from Djokovic - and he will be ready to pounce.

Despite his untouched physicality, he is still struggling with playing within himself on the baseline, and in my opinion that will always be so because of his extreme grip which takes time away from him.
But as we saw in O2, he doesn't have any trouble moving back to his 4m behind the baseline comfort zone if needed, and from there, he can deal with about 85% of players.
The rest can be alleviated with easy draws, of which I am sure TDs will make every effort to oblige.

3) Andy Murray...the number one aspiring opportunist, will continue to Ferrer his career, i.e. bang his head on the glass ceiling called The Big Three + Stan, Anderson & the likes.
He is the new Nadal in terms of sheer energy used in muscling and moving, but just not as natural a mover, so falls short of his idol.

I don't expect him to finish number two next year.

4) Novak Djokovic - said his main goals will be (just like in 2012) Roland Garros (surprise, surprise!) and Olympic Gold.
So from that point of view, it will be interesting for me to see how much he has really matured, if the Desire will be able to control and burn him out like it has been doing every time he had something big on the line.

He has moved on since the match retiring days, but this should be an ultimate test, as in 2016 Djokovc will still be at his physical peak.
Federer hinted though how hard it is to repeat exceptional years back to back, but I have a feeling that Djokovic has another year left in his legs before all those lunges, stop-start chases and stretches begin to take toll on his exquisite court coverage, which we will all agree is his main weapon.




5) Stan The Man or The Animal? I also feel that just like with Federer, next year may be the last one where we will be seeing the Animal. Mainly because above all Stan is The Man, or shall I say A Man - not obsessed with breaking any records, not prepared to flog his body stupidly like Djokovic, Murray, Nadal and Federer.

Having said that, he is the kind of player that will keep getting better and may win a slam in 3-4 years if somehow the steak he had eaten feels extra nice on the day.





6) The Young Guns: Chung, Rublev, Coric, Zverev, Kyrgios, Kokkinakis, Thiem, (has Goffin plateaued as young?) will any of them make a breakthrough?
I am most hopeful for Chung as his game looks effortless.
Rublev is still too young (18), Coric is weaponless, Zverev is another Murray and Thiem Baby Stan - so will progress more gradually and hopefully come closer to the baseline.



7) The Ex-Young Guns (Lost Generation): Nishikori, Cilic, Raonic, Dimitrov...still all look capable of winning big titles. The key for them will be to start working more on their skill rather than fitness.
If Federer can rush the net at 35, so can jolly well all of them! (at least try...)

8) The Frenchies...whether they are young or old - it makes no difference, we love them all as they make tennis watchable and will continue to do so when Federer retires : Paire, Gasquet, Tsonga, Monfils, Simon...let's hope they win something that will keep them inspired.




9) Longer Grass Season!!! Self-explanatory. And may I add - better late than never!



10) The Olympic Games. Not a fan, but they clearly mean to a lot of players and will affect next year's scheduling. It will be played on hard courts. I have a feeling we'll have a surprise winner.



11) The rest...well, there are a lot of them: The Seniors (Ferrer, Berdych, Lopez, Robredo...) The Magicians: Dolgopolov, Fognini, Strakhovski, the Returners - Del Potro, Tipsarevic...The Retirees? Will anyone retire in 2016?


These were some of my ponderings...feel free to add yours!

Federer: Might win a slam, but it's his v last chance.  I am going to say that for him to win one, he will need to have an opponent other than Djokovic and Nadal.  Preferably no Wawrinka either.  He's too nervous now and nowhere near what he was in other depts.  I also expect him to retire in 2016.  I am going to say he won't do it.  Wimbledon is the only Slam I can see him having a prayer of a title in.

Nadal: Might win French Open, but I think that's about it.  Will need to avoid Djokovic.  Can't see him doing much elsewhere, even on clay.  He's now a step slower, not hitting with depth, has no confidence, and decline has well and truly set in.  He isn't ever going to be the player he once was - same as Federer.

Murray: Might be able to capitalize on the transition period we are in. No Nadal or Federer at their best can only be a good thing for him - but in big games he tends to lose his mind.  I can see him finishing year as WN2.  That's not to say he doesn't have a chance at WN1 because Djokovic is defending a ton of points and I honestly don't think he will come close to doing so.

Djokovic: Should win a Slam.  I have said he won't win 2.  I certainly can't see him winning more than that.  He will be under a LOT of pressure to defend all those points and I honestly cannot see him keeping up the form he has been in - especially at 29 years old.  This will be his last good year, methinks.

Wawrinka:  Could pinch a Slam - but that's a big maybe.

I expect to see someone other than these 4 win a Slam next year.  Change is coming.

I don't think Djokovic will feel much pressure defending points.
Next year for him will be about winning everything again and if he is healthy he has not much to worry about.

Pressure starts when you are not confident. I really see noone that can trouble him except Stan and depending on the day - Federer.

He is over 7600 points ahead of Murray, and for Murray to overtake him means he needs to win a minimum of two slams and a lot of Masters 1000, and I just don't think he's got the game and stamina in him to do it.

Murray has done well to have won what he did.

I hope Stan can focus on AO as he is certainly capable of winning it.

Yes, Federer will need Djokovic out of his way in order to win a slam which won't be impossible if Djokovic wins RG.

I wonder how Kyrgios will do...and will Tsonga be able to piece his game together and make it more resilient.
He's got a bg serve and FH, no reason why he shouldn't explode into form like Stan did.
His confidence does seem fragile, though. A long rally or two - and he gives up.

For Dimi - also a make it or break it year in some ways.

Will Ferrer and Berdych finally drop out of top 10?

"not much to worry about"

I think you'll find that the Open Era statistics greatly disagree with you. 29 is everything to worry about - as is defending 16,000.  You'll see.

I saw a film last night - Melancholia.
Among other things, it summed up futility of statistics rather well.

noleisthebest wrote:I saw a film last night - Melancholia.
Among other things, it summed up futility of statistics rather well.

It didn't do a very good job then because statistics of this kind are irrefutable. I guess what you mean is you don't like the stats, so you aren't going to accept them.  Human biology doesn't obey you; it is what it is.  And the stats and facts support that.

If you have a 1 in 14 million chance of winning the lottery, then you do.  The statistics of winners would bear that out over time, because that's how this works.  The Open Era stats bear out that age matters.  It doesn't matter whether you like that or not - it's the truth - and it's been verified since the '60s as fact. Djokovic could buck the trend, but the massive amount of history and facts we have to date say that it is VERY unlikely.

People who come back saying stats are worthless are usually people on the losing side of an argument.

Stats are not worthless, they just have their limits.

You trying to understand Federer/tennis through statistics is a good example.

In addition to the above, nobody here is saying that age does not affect players, of course it does, but not to the effect you are trying to portray it.

Also, Federer is a big exception because of his talent.

Then again, you see Ferrer and how he seems to be playing like he is 25.

The main argument in all this is how no change in technology for the last 10 years has affected players's age, and how that has resulted in difficulty of young players breaking through.

Add all this chemical fitness on top - and things cannot be viewed through the same prism as 20-30 years ago.
Evolution is not even or mechanical. That's the beauty of it - it's hard to predict, and that's where statistics fail.

We'll see.  Prepare for Djok to fall off the radar in the next two years.

FedererKing wrote:We'll see.  Prepare for Djok to fall off the radar in the next two years.

Moving the goal post again? You said as early as next year!

Sod is back!!!

http://www.sports.fr/tennis/atp/articles/soederling-espere-rejouer-en-2016-1394816/

PS
and Delpo

I must say there is a certain pleasure for me when the forum is quiet like this.

I feel like Goldilocks in the Three Bears'  house.

Tenez wrote:

FedererKing wrote:We'll see.  Prepare for Djok to fall off the radar in the next two years.

Moving the goal post again? You said as early as next year!

Within the next two years includes that, unless you don't understand English.  It's likely that next year he will suffer a huge fall, but within two is virtually certain.  You keep arguing semantics because your argument is woeful.

Also,this is "falling off the radar" not "playing significantly worse".  There is a difference.  Nadal hasn't fallen off the radar yet - but he's close.

You talk and talk, but the entire history of Open Era tennis is against you.  Not me.

https://ourtennisforum.forumotion.co.uk/t699p50-federer-s-2006-domination-revisited#41291

Also, no goal post moving.

Just in case you didn't know...

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"I'm not Federer , I'm Rafael Nadal. He has his style and I have my own style,” Nadal told AFP.  “I for sure try to improve many things during all my career and for sure I'm working hard to be a better player. And if I am a better player for sure I will have the chance to play a bit longer.”
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yes...good observation. He needs to improve....as he says. tennis moves on.....that's the reality.

What he says and wants, and what happens in reality regarding age are 2 very different things.