Is Rafael Nadal Toast?

We have written him off so many times (come to think of it, I don't know who was written off more - Fed by journalists or Nadal by OTF), we wishfully thought him down the slippery slope, gave him silent bans, even his ardent fan here flushed him down a dark whirpool...

Again, for the third year in a row, after winning RG and failing to even progress beyond round one in Wimbledon (with the exception of last year's American HC season), Nadal has more or less hybernated outside clay season letting his PR team spin yarns about various odd phantom/real injuries.

We know Nadal is desperate for two things: to beat Federer's slam record and to win AO again and thus become the only player with two of each 4 slams.
The former is becoming less and less achievable, the latter, after what happened in 2014: so close yet so far.

I am also pretty sure he has given up on ever winning the WTF.

So, on paper I think we are legitimate to write Nadal off once more.

But will he come back again? 
Can he make another moonball FH "winner" over us?  

Have we got news from him about the rest of the season? When is he returning?

It's a "silent" absence!

Laver has won twice all the slams.

The more I think about it, the more it looks he won't be back until clay season, just like in 2013.

Apparently he is playing an exo with Tsonga in Khazakstan soon.

http://au.ibtimes.com/articles/566014/20140912/rafael-nadal-comeback-exhibition-match-kazakhstan.htm#.VBqfNWK9KSM

Just popped in to say...
WHAT A GORGEOUS DAY!!!!  

It would be a shame if he were to retire with all those good stats! He needs to play on and get beaten by the new generation!

I doubt he will. One of the vainest players on tour. All that macho facade and no chin to take losses on.

It's strange how some people (actually quite a lot) feed on winning in a negative way, i.e. losing is unbearable. 
So fragile inside.

Looks like Nadal will have a full schedule till end of year.....except that he pulls out of this joke league in Asia.....like everybody else bar Murray.

PS...Just read that Federer is actually replacing Rafa.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/tennis/29309134

It's clearly an exhibition....so no harm here. ...bar the painful travelling.

Interesting. What makes you think Nadal will play full autumn schedule?
I suppose we'll find out soon.

I never liked this Asian circus idea...
Federer must have had the offer he couldn't refuse


I read the other day that the top tennis dog of Asia has made an official demand for the 5th slam...now that would be a disaster, esp as the  Chinese would obviously have it on hard courts.

I don't like money creeping into tennis in such a vulgar way. They had Li Na win two slams and already consider themselves a tennis super-power.

Joining the league is a mistake for Federer IMO-  he said often early in the year that he felt like his strong season was because he skipped the EXo's the other top players did during the offseason and concentrated purely on training.    Now he's packed his offseason with not only this event but two matches for his charity.   Different parts of the world too, so with all the travel- he's going to reduce his training block.

In addition- he's confirmed for another Madison Square Garden Exo before Indian Wells/Miami in 2015.
This reminds me of his great tour of South America before 2013 season, and we know how 2013 went.

Fed has a 2-3 years left to contend. I certainly know the money is hard to turn down (they are saying on his forum he was offered nearly double Nadal's payout and Nadals ownership shares in the league).  However, Fed could go all out for titles over the next couple of years- and THEN cash in full time for at least a few years.

truffin1 wrote:Joining the league is a mistake for Federer IMO-  he said often early in the year that he felt like his strong season was because he skipped the EXo's the other top players did during the offseason and concentrated purely on training.    Now he's packed his offseason with not only this event but two matches for his charity.   Different parts of the world too, so with all the travel- he's going to reduce his training block.

In addition- he's confirmed for another Madison Square Garden Exo before Indian Wells/Miami in 2015.
This reminds me of his great tour of South America before 2013 season, and we know how 2013 went.

Fed has a 2-3 years left to contend. I certainly know the money is hard to turn down (they are saying on his forum he was offered nearly double Nadal's payout and Nadals ownership shares in the league).  However, Fed could go all out for titles over the next couple of years- and THEN cash in full time for at least a few years.

I think Fed has only one year left in him. He will probably retire end of 2015.....unless he wants to cash in further....or manages to win everything SVing.....which I doubt.

I think he goes to India's exho cause he cares about his popularity and the promotion of the game. I don't think this matches will tire him. They are really exhos only. Sure the travelling is going to be a nuisance.

I also think Fed is deeply enjoying this new lease of his tennis life with Stefan's influence and the bigger frame.
If the back holds, he may stretch it to Rio Olympics in 2016.
I just wish ATP understood the time is slipping through his fingers, and sped up conds a bit, at least indoor and in Wimbledon.

If this is his last year, Tenez, even more reason not to waste precious training time and energy on fake league/exo's. Feds own words claimed in several interviews that concentrating on a long offseason training block and not doing exo's was the big factor next to his health in this season success. He even took some classic veiled federer knocks at other top players for "playing the exhibition circuit while I trained in Dubai". " I worked harder than them during the break". Now, what is he doing? Playing the circuit while nadal trains.

Trust me- I get his reasoning- I used to help set up and promote off season events all the time for clients, but I also know it takes much more effort and energy from the athlete than just showing up for two days. As it stands now- fed will play the extra grueling DC final (huge mental drain as well, take a small vacation, fly to Dubai for a small training block, leave just as he's starting for a moet charity event over a couple of days, fly back, train for a few days then fly to India 1 or two days before event for press and handshaking VIPs, play a couple of days, fly back, train a week or so, then fly to Switzerland for a charity match with Stan, fly back to Dubai and spend Christmas with family, then start to get ready for Queensland tourny.

To me- just looking at it from a best scenario for results- he should just train his butt off for one final push. It's not like all aspects of his game are firing now. Winning another AO or Wimbledon is worth far more to him than what he could earn this offseason. Then next offseason, if he's winding down- go make the money.

To me- this smacks of a farewell tour type rationale - playing for the fans vs for the titles

truffin1 wrote:If this is his last year, Tenez, even more reason not to waste precious training time and energy on fake league/exo's.   Feds own words claimed in several interviews that concentrating on a long offseason training block and not doing exo's was the big factor next to his health in this season success. He even took some classic veiled federer knocks at other top players for "playing the exhibition circuit while I trained in Dubai". " I worked harder than them during the break".  Now, what is he doing?  Playing the circuit while nadal trains.  

But how does this work? An exho is typically not that taxing. "working hard in Dubai" is probably exhausting. Federer lost the USO cause he was simply exhausted. He did not beat Nadal in that AO14 though Nadal went to do some exhos. Fed's problem in the 13/14 off season was not exhaustion but his back and in that regard yes it made sense to work hard to fix his back. It seems now that's sorted so an exho should typically not bother him except for the travelling of course.

Trust me- I get his reasoning-  I used to help set up and promote off season events all the time for clients, but I also know it takes much more effort and energy from the athlete than just showing up for two days.  As it stands now-  fed will play the extra grueling DC final (huge mental drain as well, take a small vacation, fly to Dubai for a small training block, leave just as he's starting for a moet charity event over a couple of days, fly back, train for a few days then fly to India 1 or two days before event for press and handshaking VIPs, play a couple of days, fly back, train a week or so, then fly to Switzerland for a charity match with Stan, fly back to Dubai and spend Christmas with family, then start to get ready for Queensland tourny.

Sure the travelling is terrible but exho will be dealt like training. Nothing else. Nothing compared to real matches. He can even lose to old Pete in those exhos, it doesn;t matter.

To me- just looking at it from a best scenario for results-  he should just train his  butt off for one final push.  It's not like all aspects of his game are firing now.   Winning another AO or Wimbledon is worth far more to him than what he could earn this offseason.   Then next offseason, if he's winding down- go make the money.
To me- this smacks of a farewell tour type rationale - playing for the fans vs for the titles

from what I saw in the USO, he can win a slam. Problem is that he needs to pace it well. Playing matches and gain confidence is what he needs and what he said during Cincy but it is also walking a thin like cause they are really draining.

His game is there....he just needs to arrive fresh at slams. I'd say he roughly has a 1 in 4 chance to win a slam.......good news he has 4 slams to play next year.

truffin1 wrote:Joining the league is a mistake for Federer IMO-  he said often early in the year that he felt like his strong season was because he skipped the EXo's the other top players did during the offseason and concentrated purely on training.    Now he's packed his offseason with not only this event but two matches for his charity.   Different parts of the world too, so with all the travel- he's going to reduce his training block.

In addition- he's confirmed for another Madison Square Garden Exo before Indian Wells/Miami in 2015.
This reminds me of his great tour of South America before 2013 season, and we know how 2013 went.

Fed has a 2-3 years left to contend. I certainly know the money is hard to turn down (they are saying on his forum he was offered nearly double Nadal's payout and Nadals ownership shares in the league).  However, Fed could go all out for titles over the next couple of years- and THEN cash in full time for at least a few years.

I also agree with you, Truff, that Fed should avoid playing this league and just focus on GS. Just how Sampras did at the end of his carreer. But Fed’s choice shows that he is fully satisfied with his current GS tally. After the USO nice draw he could lose a bit belief to win another GS and he just want to find out where his game really is in a comparison with the TOP, therefore the choose of  this league can be a right choice and what is more  without putting in  a huge effort. I also think that money talks loudly here.

Next year will be the last year for Nadal with a chance to succeed at GS,  he knows it and we have something to look forward.Since 2016 he will play just since March to May only on clay one or two years 

Tenez wrote:

truffin1 wrote:If this is his last year, Tenez, even more reason not to waste precious training time and energy on fake league/exo's.   Feds own words claimed in several interviews that concentrating on a long offseason training block and not doing exo's was the big factor next to his health in this season success. He even took some classic veiled federer knocks at other top players for "playing the exhibition circuit while I trained in Dubai". " I worked harder than them during the break".  Now, what is he doing?  Playing the circuit while nadal trains.  

But how does this work? An exho is typically not that taxing.  "working hard in Dubai" is probably exhausting. Federer lost the USO cause he was simply exhausted. He did not beat Nadal in that AO14 though Nadal went to do some exhos. Fed's problem in the 13/14  off season was not exhaustion but his back and in that regard yes it made sense to work hard to fix his back. It seems now that's sorted so an exho should typically not bother him except for the travelling of course.  

Trust me- I get his reasoning-  I used to help set up and promote off season events all the time for clients, but I also know it takes much more effort and energy from the athlete than just showing up for two days.  As it stands now-  fed will play the extra grueling DC final (huge mental drain as well, take a small vacation, fly to Dubai for a small training block, leave just as he's starting for a moet charity event over a couple of days, fly back, train for a few days then fly to India 1 or two days before event for press and handshaking VIPs, play a couple of days, fly back, train a week or so, then fly to Switzerland for a charity match with Stan, fly back to Dubai and spend Christmas with family, then start to get ready for Queensland tourny.

Sure the travelling is terrible but exho will be dealt like training. Nothing else. Nothing compared to real matches. He can even lose to old Pete in those exhos, it doesn;t matter.

To me- just looking at it from a best scenario for results-  he should just train his  butt off for one final push.  It's not like all aspects of his game are firing now.   Winning another AO or Wimbledon is worth far more to him than what he could earn this offseason.   Then next offseason, if he's winding down- go make the money.
To me- this smacks of a farewell tour type rationale - playing for the fans vs for the titles

from what I saw in the USO, he can win a slam. Problem is that he needs to pace it well. Playing matches and gain confidence is what he needs and what he said during Cincy but it is also walking a thin like cause they are really draining.

His game is there....he just needs to arrive fresh at slams. I'd say he roughly has a 1 in 4 chance to win a slam.......good news he has 4 slams to play next year.

There's a difference between training and getting tired for a purpose vs. playing exhos and getting less tired with no purpose.   I've witnessed it and been a part of it-  there is a reason why football players go through grueling 2 a days that almost kill them before the season starts, why baseball has a spring training, why boxers (more like tennis as one on one) go into camp for 6 weeks around 8 weeks before a fight.   The body has to be shocked into a peak level with extreme push to the limit training.  This is how they gain explosiveness, bring on new techniques, gain endurance.  THEN, there is a rest period that goes into a training "maintain" mode which is what they do throughout the season.    The body is better able to deal with being tired, and gets less tired if you put it through that period of grueling training.  It's better in the long run.  It's the natural way of cycling up vs the Dope way Nadal uses in addition to actual traiing.    This normal method is what Federer has done throughout his career with training blocks, what he gave up in 2012 that led to a disaster 2013 (maybe maybe not by  not training fully- his back was less able to deal with the stress of the season).  End of 2013 he brought that regimen back and excelled in 2014.      He even talked about it at the US Open in a sit down ESPN. I have it on my dvr-  paraphrasing-- they ask him about his training with Paganini and Federer talks about his training blocks, how he puts himself through the hell to be ready for the 5 set matches, mentions changing the exercises because of the back, and then they ask him to elaborate- he say he and Paganini got together with his doctors,teams- came up with new methods and have a multi year plan.  Federer then says and this is the importnant part  " I train like my career with go on for years. I have to train that hard like there is no end in site. Otherwise, if I thought I was going to retire in 1 or two years. I would just ease up and show up for touraments and play."  

That's the key- he can maintain and show up at tournaments with his base game already in place and probably make the usual semis, finals, an odd win here and there.    However, he knows and says- if he wants to be at his absolute peak of capabilities, he has to go through a proper training block.

What I am seeing now is he is planning on just showing up and playing which is what he said he would do if the end is near- which is a bummer.

Also- Federer just announced he is playing shanghai which most thought he would skip- especially with DC having played and his scheduled vacation, most of the insiders thought he would take his usual training block pre indoor and miss shanghai.  So he's skipping or at least shortened another block.    Talk about tired. he will be spent if he plays shanghai, basel, paris, wtf and DC...  He has to skip Paris if he has any sense.  Otherwise this is a for the fans tour.  It's also an indication that he thinks his base game might make a run for year end #1 so he is going to play the full schedule...   

One bonus that I can see is if he does get to at least #2, he might throw Nadal into Djokos half at AO--  50/50.. that might make a difference for that title.

I agree with everyting you say about training blocks, Truffin, but I really think Federer's switched his priorities.

The tour is so physical now, no matter how hard and long his training block is, he'll get tired by the SF - just like it happened in USO.

And it's not just him, it happens to other players, as well.
Nole basically played next to nothing in Cinci and Toronto and got burnt out before the USO semi as he was wiped out by Murray and the hot&humid weather.
When legs are empty, that's it...which why it's impossible to dominate in this particular era.
It's all luck of the draw, playing conditions, scheduling...they are now making the difference not how hard you train in the off season- they all are doing it and are able to wear each other much quicker than 5 years ago.

Fed's realised that and is just trying to find the right balance. To me he is clearly enjoying this new found childlike passion for the play, the well earnt love he receives everywhere he goes.

I'd rather him play well as he has all 2014 and not win that much but be an inspiration to new generations, than maybe bust his guts to win another slam like Sampras did and then just vanish into oblivion.
If it happens - great, if it doesn't he really has nothing to prove to anyone!

These are special times for him, did you see how happy he was after the DC win last week?

He might be playing everything till the end of the year but I am pretty sure that his schedule will be based on how Djoko and Nadal do. I think the aim there is to finish number one...and be number one more time.

I think he knows best what's best for him. He messed up the USO with his schedule ...agreed but at least he won a TMS1000. He may have lost at the USO regardless. so I guess his philosphy now is "get what I can"..and as NITB say enjoy it.

Any new thoughts on this topic following Nadal's unexpectedly early AO exit?

I think this is the year someone will get him in RG- and if that' happens- Nadal will find it very hard to ever win another Major.   He'll now go to the minor leagues in South America and prop up his precious win/loss % against nobodies to placate his fan base... then hope that the coming slow hard and clay season will give him a chance to gain some confidence and momentum against the top guys.    

Despite Armris crying and jinxing- he's still a capable player when in form- esp under the usual conditions. The Peds will keep him propped up to a level that can compete. However, it might not be enough to win the big ones. There is a new generation of capable players arriving- good talent that can cause an upset- they might soften him up and one of the other big guns take him out

The Nadal career argument is going to be interesting though when a player of his own generation and basic age- Djokovic ends up with more weeks at #1, more year end #1s, more WTF's, similar masters, a better h2h against him if Nadal quits ducking the non clay season,etc-- and probably ends up as close to Nadal in Majors as Nadal is to Federer.

truffin1 wrote:The Nadal career argument is going to be interesting though when a player of his own generation and basic age- Djokovic ends up with more weeks at #1, more year end #1s, more WTF's, similar masters, a better h2h against him if Nadal quits ducking the non clay season,etc-- and probably ends up as close to Nadal in Majors as Nadal is to Federer.

Interesting that. Just had a look at how it stands to date, and Djokovic only needs 10 more weeks at No. 1 to equal Nadal's total.

Polly 81 wrote:

truffin1 wrote:The Nadal career argument is going to be interesting though when a player of his own generation and basic age- Djokovic ends up with more weeks at #1, more year end #1s, more WTF's, similar masters, a better h2h against him if Nadal quits ducking the non clay season,etc-- and probably ends up as close to Nadal in Majors as Nadal is to Federer.

Interesting that. Just had a look at how it stands to date, and Djokovic only needs 10 more weeks at No. 1 to equal Nadal's total.

Djoko also has passed Nadal in Major semi final appearances and has 4th best quarters streak in history.. He's starting to build a serious case as the best player of his/Nadal generation.

That's impressive. I suppose with all the hype about Federer and Nadal, and comparing them both all the time, Djokovic gets on with the job almost unnoticed. Maybe we should do a 'stats comparing' thread for them both.

Polly 81 wrote:That's impressive. I suppose with all the hype about Federer and Nadal, and comparing them both all the time, Djokovic gets on with the job almost unnoticed. Maybe we should do a 'stats comparing' thread for them both.

We do have a Djokovic-Nadal thread

https://ourtennisforum.forumotion.co.uk/t775-the-nole-nadal-debate

I admit stats and charts aren't my forte, but you could contribute!

truffin1 wrote: I think this is the year someone will get him in RG- and if that' happens- Nadal will find it very hard to ever win another Major.   He'll now go to the minor leagues in South America and prop up his precious win/loss % against nobodies to placate his fan base... then hope that the coming slow hard and clay season will give him a chance to gain some confidence and momentum against the top guys.   

Interesting and quite possible.
I thought Nole was going to beat Nadal in RG last year, even went there to see it live and got my heart broken...as if Nadal has a spell cast iver that tournament!
Nole had his wrist injured in Monte Carlo, and probably wan not 100% fit for that match.
Not to mention the draw from hell he had...

The thing that stood out to me as a doping ignoramus was the unnerving physical performance he put in in demolishing Ferrer and Murray in QF and SF. He literally destroyed them like they were Challenger level players.

I don't know what he does to achieve such effect but we can see what it seems to be doing to nis young body...

noleisthebest wrote:

Polly 81 wrote:That's impressive. I suppose with all the hype about Federer and Nadal, and comparing them both all the time, Djokovic gets on with the job almost unnoticed. Maybe we should do a 'stats comparing' thread for them both.

We do have a Djokovic-Nadal thread

https://ourtennisforum.forumotion.co.uk/t775-the-nole-nadal-debate

I admit stats and charts aren't my forte, but you could contribute!

Great! Well I love stats!  I'll post when I get a chance.

Excellent, thanks!

I wouldn't read too much into his AO result as of yet. Usually with him - the further he goes in the AO, the sooner he is back to Mallorca the rest of the year.

Cases in point:
2009: wins AO, loses R4 in RG and can't take a set off a top 10 player for the rest of the year
2014: AO F, wins RG after mediocre clay masters, struggles the rest of the year
2012: AO F, wins RG after mediocre clay masters, goes AWOL after Rosol loss
2008: AO SF, wins RG + Wim + OG
2010: AO QF, wins 3 majors in a row
2011: AO skipped, wins RG, makes 5 slam finals in a row
2013: AO skipped, wins RG + USO series

2015: AO QF ???
so I'd reserve judgement until RG to see if the patterns hold

True AL...though you missed the best year: AO09 wins it and then does bugger all the rest of the year.

Tenez wrote:True AL...though you missed the best year: AO09 wins it and then does bugger all the rest of the year.

I couldn't possibly - might be my favourite Nadal year. 

My favourite Nadal year has got to be 2011.

noleisthebest wrote:My favourite Nadal year has got to be 2011.

He made too many finals for my taste then (all of them!  ).    I agree that it must be your favourite Nole year though.