The PREDICTION THREAD

[Tenez]

A good sense of obvservation should in theory help us predict the evolution of the game and its players. It's never straight forward as the mental side and injury is quite unpredictable in a player. Such cases like Gulbis, Nalbandian Monfills and Gasquet are confirming this though again clues were there from the beginning to the attentive observer that those guys were too hot to be consistent and the slow pace conds never favoured them in the long and gruesome adventure that is a slam nowadays. Anyway all that considered this thread is to invite you put your gut feel and knowledge where your mouth is.

And I'll start!

- I beleive that within 18 months (up to USO 14) 2 or 3 players of the new generation (under 24 now) will be in top 10 and will start challenging for slams. (reaching slam finals if not win it).
- By end of 2014 we will have one of them in top 4 minimum.
- I also believe that Murray will never reach the number one spot now.
- Neither will Nadal again and even say will not win a slam again (challenge to Blueclay). I am quite sure about Nadal not reaching number one again less about not winning a a slam but it woudl certainly surprise me.

[luvsports!]

I think feds could retire by the end of next season.

[raiders_of_the_lost_ark]

@ Tenez: What about Fed? Where will he be?

[luvsports!]

and djoko?

[BlueClay]

I think Nadal will win some more slams starting with this year's FO.

I think it is unlikely that Federer will win another slam (not impossible but unlikely.)

[Tenez]

I agree that Fed is probably going down from now. He still has the game to beat anybody on the day but those days are rare not because of his age as much (not directly anyway) but because of his back which certainly prevents him from training properly and line up matches to get the rhythm of a tournament/surface.

I see Djoko in the top 4 for the next 2 years....but then sliding. If we look at it he has very close encounters in his last 6 slams (even MPs down in some of them and he won;t get away with those for ever.

[noleisthebest]

I thought this was Indian Wells prediction game

But since it's not, I'm going to enter into a pitch black room and "see" the following:

Nadal won't win any more slams
Nole will win over 10 by the end of his career.
Murray will squeeze one more slam by the end of his career again due to a favourable set of circumstances.
Fed will win 2 more slams.

Of the current crop, Tomic will be the most successful, titles wise.
Somebody totally new will come out next year be the "real deal"

ITF will never catch anybody doping.

[Tenez]

I think we are also likely to see a 24/25 year old do very well at 26/27. A bit like Wawrinka or Gasquet could do if their heads were on.

[noleisthebest]

As for the game and its evolution, once Federer, Nadal and Novak retire, popularity is going to go down big time. We are going to have about 5 years of really bland tennis and characterless players undo all the good work of the previous generation.

A transitional period in which even Nadal fans will understand what good tennis was all about and will start demanding something to be done about playing conditions and doping.

There will be giants bashing the ball from the base-line and nobody will want to watch them.
Until a new prodigy comes along and blasts then all away in style with poise and tennis magic

[noleisthebest]

As for me, I'll be suffering quietly and living in the past not being able to help myself tuning in for RG and Wimbledon finals and turn them off after 5 minutes in utter disgust

[Tenez]

As for the game and its evolution, once Federer, Nadal and Novak retire, popularity is going to go down big time. We are going to have about 5 years of really bland tennis and characterless players undo all the good work of the previous generation.

A transitional period in which even Nadal fans will understand what good tennis was all about and will start demanding something to be done about playing conditions and doping.

There will be giants bashing the ball from the base-line and nobody will want to watch them.
Until a new prodigy comes along and blasts then all away in style with poise and tennis magic

I really don't think so. There will be one less genius for sure but more talented people at the top I feel and that means more character probably.

I can see more guys like JWTsonga, Wawrinka, Dolgo, Dimi, who have at least as much character than Federer and Novak. Federer was not a particular character to watch. His racquet was doing the talking.

Djoko plays with excitement.....but he only excites himself and 4 other people only unfortuantely...including you. Murray is simply a joy to watch lose as one feels all his frustration is texpresses on a court is horoughly deserved.

Ferrer..no comment

and Nadal is only a hysterical teenager puberty release icon. I cannot see how a mature person woudl get excited by this control freak maniac.

[noleisthebest]

I really don't think so. There will be one less genius for sure but more talented people at the top I feel and that means more character probably.

I can see more guys like JWTsonga, Wawrinka, Dolgo, Dimi, who have at least as much character than Federer and Novak. Federer was not a particular character to watch. His racquet was doing the talking.

Sure, life moves on and media & PR machineries will find the way of manufacturing rivalries and airbrush characters. However, when a huge name like Federer leaves, there will be a void left for quite a while for quite a lot of people and all the Dimis and Tsongas of this world won't make fans wake up in the middle of the night in order to see them.

[Tenez]

...there will be a void left for quite a while for quite a lot of people and all the Dimis and Tsongas of this world won't make fans wake up in the middle of the night in order to see them.

Don't worry. If some can wake up to watch Murray and Djoko, many other fans will also wake up for the next winners.

[Tenez]

I think we are also likely to see a 24/25 year old do very well at 26/27. A bit like Wawrinka or Gasquet could do if their heads were on.

Donskoy is one who should really do well when he reaches 25/27. I certainly think that in 2 years he could among the players who will eclipse and shorten the current top 4 careers.

[Tenez]

That's the thread to discuss predictions btw. This is where we shoudl be assessed.

[Tenez]

Revisiting the 16 month old thread about prediction....where do we stand?
 

- I beleive that within 18 months (up to USO 14) 2 or 3 players of the new generation (under 24 now) will be in top 10 and will start challenging for slams. (reaching slam finals if not win it).

Correct! we have Rao and Dimi and possibly Nishi soon too-

By end of 2014 we will have one of them in top 4 minimum.

Probably unlikely. It will depend most likely on Rao's summer season. Actualy it might depend on how Nadal fares in the US season. he has lots on the line....so quite possible actually.

I also believe that Murray will never reach the number one spot now.

Correct too..though this one was not too difficult.
 

- Neither will Nadal again and even say will not win a slam again (challenge to Blueclay). I am quite sure about Nadal not reaching number one again less about not winning a a slam but it woudl certainly surprise me.

very wrong indeed...why? I'll blame Djoko who simply collapsed badly in many finals and encounters v Nadal and Federer.

[Tenez]

I agree that Fed is probably going down from now. He still has the game to beat anybody on the day but those days are rare not because of his age as much (not directly anyway) but because of his back which certainly prevents him from training properly and line up matches to get the rhythm of a tournament/surface.

Being able to beat Djoko and Murray this year proves I was right.....injury and not age was the issue.Age is not reversible....injuries can be.

I see Djoko in the top 4 for the next 2 years....but then sliding. If we look at it he has very close encounters in his last 6 slams (even MPs down in some of them and he won;t get away with those for ever.

Early days but will stick to it. He has not shown much dominance despite his healthy ATP lead. he has not woon a slam for a year and a half.....though this could change tomorrow. And he certainly gets close to being caught up by a few players.

[Tenez]

I think we are also likely to see a 24/25 year old do very well at 26/27. A bit like Wawrinka or Gasquet could do if their heads were on.

And Wawrinka just proved that!!!! Pretty accurate there.

[Tenez]

As for the game and its evolution, once Federer, Nadal and Novak retire, popularity is going to go down big time. We are going to have about 5 years of really bland tennis and characterless players undo all the good work of the previous generation.

A transitional period in which even Nadal fans will understand what good tennis was all about and will start demanding something to be done about playing conditions and doping.

There will be giants bashing the ball from the base-line and nobody will want to watch them.
Until a new prodigy comes along and blasts then all away in style  with poise  and tennis magic

I really don't think so. There will be one less genius for sure but more talented people at the top I feel and that means more character probably.

I can see more guys like JWTsonga, Wawrinka, Dolgo, Dimi, who have at least as much character than Federer and Novak. Federer was not a particular character to watch. His racquet was doing the talking.

Djoko plays with excitement.....but he only excites himself and 4 other people only unfortuantely...including you.  Murray is simply a joy to watch lose as one feels all his frustration is texpresses on a court is horoughly deserved.

Ferrer..no comment

and Nadal is only a hysterical teenager puberty release icon. I cannot see how a mature person woudl get excited by this control freak maniac.

Interesting to see how the Media are selling us Dimi as the next big thing...cause he has the x factor....and has the Sharapova card too.

[Autumnleaf]

Interesting to see how the Media are selling us Dimi as the next big thing...cause he has the x factor....and has the Sharapova card too.

Dimitrov must deliver though and soon, else some other young guy might overtake him. Just look how they celebrated Kyrgios, a genuinely young guy, a teenager beating the World No 1 at a slam! (ok, it was Nadal at Wimbledon, but who cares for such small things!) That has some appeal. Anyway, Nadal has something to worry about, he is no longer the guy, girls scream over when he changes his shirt.  

The Sharapova card might very soon lose its shine too. Should Bouchard win today which is very possible, she might supersede her and become the next blonde beauty. Maybe Dimitrov will consider changing girlfriends then, Bouchard is with Nike too. 

[noleisthebest]

He, he....here come my predictions...

Nadal won't win any more slams

Well, he didn't...Nole gifted all three to him on a plate... 

Nole will win over 10 by  the end of his career.

If he hadn't gifted those three to Nadal and the one to Murray last year, he'd already have had 10!!!
He's still got time ti do it, though.

Murray will squeeze one more slam by the end of his career again due to a favourable set of circumstances.

Yep, did this last Wimbledon.

Fed will win 2 more slams.

He's nearly there  if he wins tomorrow

Of the current crop, Tomic will be the most successful, titles wise.

Eeeeeerm....how was I to know his dad was a complete nutcase...talent-wise, should've done a lot better.

Somebody totally new will come out next year be the "real deal"

OK, I'll take Kyrgios as the "real deal"

ITF will never catch anybody doping.

I was wrong here..they did catch Cilic....still, does Cilic even qualify as a "somebody"?

[raiders_of_the_lost_ark]

Fed doesn't think too highly of the new generation.
"Yet the 17-time Grand Slam champion is convinced his strong showing at Wimbledon proves he will continue to compete with Djokovic, Rafael Nadal and Andy Murray for the sport's major prizes for the foreseeable future, especially while much-touted youngsters like Grigor Dimitrov, Milos Raonic and Kei Nishikori continue to underachieve.
"I don't feel a huge threat from them. There's many good players from 5 or 6 to 20. But they're also somewhat exchangeable from 30 or 40," Federer said.
"There's a lot of dangerous players around there. But I feel like if I'm playing well I can control the field to a degree.
"Clearly there's never a guarantee. But I do believe the top guys are the ones we know and who are still going to be deciding outcomes of the bigger tournaments, like the Masters 1000s and the Grand Slams."
http://ibnlive.in.com/news/big-4-under-no-threat-from-generation-next-roger-federer/484233-5-22.html


I'm sure Murray is not in big-4 any more. 

[Tenez]

I have not done too badly in this thread...bar my Nadal predictions.

[luvsports!]

haha good stuff, but nadal still remains an ongoing elusive quandary!

[Tenez]

yes but remember when not so long ago most were saying that Nadal, Djoko and Murray would b untroubled way into 2015.

I think we will soon put the strong era into perspective....and call it a shotless era.

[noleisthebest]

I am guilty of thinking Nole was going to keep rolling on with slams after his crazy 2011.
I remember Tenez saying he was not going to be able to dominate for much longer.
At the time I didn't understand just to what degree physical tennis was affecting players, but it didn't take me long to put 2 and 2 together.

As soon as I got that right, everything else fell into place.

My next big enigma is what kind of tennis will replace these hard-hitting giants, and I believe we may find the answer in tomorrow's final.

Also, how is the slam distribution going to pan out in 2015 with top players still playing well, but the new generation already with their foot in the door.

[Tenez]

It's always going to be a race between retrievers and attackers. It has always been and always will. I am curious to see what level of retrieving those next players will have to achieve to contain the new generation of attackers. Will the diet science keep up?

I think they will probably have to keep slowing things to keep the right balance....but we are not there yet..it's still very much a slug fest the rest of the year.

[Tenez]

A good sense of obvservation should in theory help us predict the evolution of the game and its players. It's never straight forward as the mental side and injury is quite unpredictable in a player. Such cases like Gulbis, Nalbandian Monfills and Gasquet are confirming this though again clues were there from the beginning to the attentive observer that those guys were too hot to be consistent and the slow pace conds never favoured them in the long and gruesome adventure that is a slam nowadays. Anyway all that considered this thread is to invite you put your gut feel and knowledge where your mouth is.

And I'll start!  

1- I beleive that within 18 months (up to USO 14) 2 or 3 players of the new generation (under 24 now) will be in top 10 and will start challenging for slams. (reaching slam finals if not win it).  
2- By end of 2014 we will have one of them in top 4 minimum.
3- I also believe that Murray will never reach the number one spot now.
4- Neither will Nadal again and even say will not win a slam again (challenge to Blueclay). I am quite sure about Nadal not reaching number one again less about not winning a a slam but it woudl certainly surprise me.

Ok let's revisit the prediction thread of 2013!!!
1 - was correct. We had Nishi, and Raonic in the top 10.
2 - Ok Nishi was 5th end of 2014 with only 300 points behind number 4. he got to number 4 3 months after end of 2014. SO pretty close prediction too.
3 - Still valid.
4 - wrong.
so 3 out of 4 here.

[Tenez]

I agree that Fed is probably going down from now. He still has the game to beat anybody on the day but those days are rare not because of his age as much (not directly anyway) but because of his back which certainly prevents him from training properly and line up matches to get the rhythm of a tournament/surface.

I see Djoko in the top 4 for the next 2 years....but then sliding. If we look at it he has very close encounters in his last 6 slams (even MPs down in some of them and he won;t get away with those for ever.  

Remember many of you attributed Fed's decline to his age....he clearly showed in 2014 it was not age but back that prevented him from winning slams.
so here I am still 2 out of 2. Though I might lose one if Djoko doesn't slide in 2016.

[Tenez]

I think we are also likely to see a 24/25 year old do very well at 26/27. A bit like Wawrinka or Gasquet could do if their heads were on.

Wasn't I right again there????? Stan and Cilic winning slams! so 1/1 again!

[Tenez]

I think we are also likely to see a 24/25 year old do very well at 26/27. A bit like Wawrinka or Gasquet could do if their heads were on.

Donskoy is one who should really do well when he reaches 25/27. I certainly think that in 2 years he could among the players who will eclipse and shorten the current top 4 careers.

What was I thinking? Bloody wrong there. 0/1. he was #65 at 23 and probably got injured as his ranked went back down to 200..coudl not foresee that.

[Tenez]

so all in all 6 out of 8 predictions were correct.

Not bad. Especially considering that at the time they were very bold. I noticed that not many came up with their own predictions...so easy to criticise.

[Tenez]

Oh and as this is the prediction thread:

I confirm that Chung will get to the top 10 by Wimbledon 2016. (this is very bold).

[noleisthebest]

Oh and as this is the prediction thread:

I confirm that Chung will get to the top 10 by Wimbledon 2016. (this is very bold).

Now it is properly bold!

[Tenez]

Chung could be top 20 by year end.....and there is not much time left. But he certainly has the game!

[noleisthebest]

Chung could be top 20 by year end.....and there is not much time left. But he certainly has the game!

Nice to see you excited!

I am having a grand Paire time!

[Tenez]

I actually doubt Chung will make the top 20 as there really only 2 tournaments left and he needs to qualify for one of them, maybe 2. ....however I fancy a few top 20 upsets in those tournaments.

[raiders_of_the_lost_ark]

Oh and as this is the prediction thread:

I confirm that Chung will get to the top 10 by Wimbledon 2016. (this is very bold).

'Very very bold indeed. 

He has some good results, but will see next year. They find it all the more tough when they have to defend last years points. Ask Dimi.

[Tenez]

Oh and as this is the prediction thread:

I confirm that Chung will get to the top 10 by Wimbledon 2016. (this is very bold).

'Very very bold indeed. 

He has some good results, but will see next year. They find it all the more tough when they have to defend last years points. Ask Dimi.

Yes but very different here. I always base my prediction on what I see on the court. I mean the player's game.

And Chung at the age of 19 is beating top 50 players with more ease than a top 10 player would. That is what I find really amazing. Even before losing in SHanghai, he managed to bagel AGAIN, the player who ended up beating him. He has distributed 4 or 5 bagels in the last 2 months and that is extremely impressive knowing how tough it is out there.

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