US open prediction game - day 8

FedererKing wrote:Well, it's the crap Tsonga who has shown up.  This guy used ultra variety to absolutely sink Nadal - and he's back here trying to out rally Novak.  Why are all these players so pathetic with variety?  Don't they realize that Novak's stremgth is scrambling to points with modern easy racquets?  Do some underarm serves once in a while, do some short balls, drop shots - and a lot of attacking net approaches.

But no... they just carry on with the same doomed strategy.  There were SO MANY opportunities for a drop shot or short ball or net approach - and Tsonga just knocked it back to continue the rally.  It's not good.  If Novak gets to the final, it might be against Murray and that will be a right bore. 

Del Potro is the only player willing to take the time away from baseline bores. And he can win.

so how much did you loose at the bookies this time?

legendkillar wrote:So another retirement against Djokovic. These players aren't men because they don't have the balls to put up a fight.

It's all very well saying Djokovic will decline, yet it helps that other players peak first!

looks like you could be right,the winner will be the last man standing...lol
has this ever happened before? 9 players retiring...its very very strange...
if there was a bug going around im sure the players would have mentioned it by now..

Veejay wrote:

legendkillar wrote:So another retirement against Djokovic. These players aren't men because they don't have the balls to put up a fight.

It's all very well saying Djokovic will decline, yet it helps that other players peak first!

looks like you could be right,the winner will be the last man standing...lol
has this ever happened before? 9 players retiring...its very very strange...
if there was a bug going around im sure the players would have mentioned it by now..

I know we laugh at the fact so many players are dropping like flies, but this is unprecedented surely.

From here on out I am hoping Del Potro can shake the foundations of this lacklustre tournament.

The retirements really have put a dampener on this.

legendkillar wrote:

Veejay wrote:

legendkillar wrote:So another retirement against Djokovic. These players aren't men because they don't have the balls to put up a fight.

It's all very well saying Djokovic will decline, yet it helps that other players peak first!

looks like you could be right,the winner will be the last man standing...lol
has this ever happened before? 9 players retiring...its very very strange...
if there was a bug going around im sure the players would have mentioned it by now..

I know we laugh at the fact so many players are dropping like flies, but this is unprecedented surely.

From here on out I am hoping Del Potro can shake the foundations of this lacklustre tournament.

The retirements really have put a dampener on this.

it pretty much sums up this years lacklustre season in my opinion... apart from seeing djokovic complete his career grand slam and hold all 4 majors theres absolutely nothing else to rave about for tennis fans

Veejay wrote:

legendkillar wrote:

Veejay wrote:

legendkillar wrote:So another retirement against Djokovic. These players aren't men because they don't have the balls to put up a fight.

It's all very well saying Djokovic will decline, yet it helps that other players peak first!

looks like you could be right,the winner will be the last man standing...lol
has this ever happened before? 9 players retiring...its very very strange...
if there was a bug going around im sure the players would have mentioned it by now..

I know we laugh at the fact so many players are dropping like flies, but this is unprecedented surely.

From here on out I am hoping Del Potro can shake the foundations of this lacklustre tournament.

The retirements really have put a dampener on this.

it pretty much sums up this years lacklustre season in my opinion... apart from seeing djokovic complete his career grand slam and hold all 4 majors theres absolutely nothing else to rave about for tennis fans

I find the last 2 years I've been thinking that someone who come along and kick the establishment off the throne, and it hasn't happened. The rest of the field it seems carry battle scars from previous hidings from the established order. Coric and Thiem for example have had some good results and performances and put in some poor displays right when the momentum is with them. I reckon we will have to look at the generation coming behind them for change.

legendkillar wrote:

Veejay wrote:

legendkillar wrote:

Veejay wrote:

legendkillar wrote:So another retirement against Djokovic. These players aren't men because they don't have the balls to put up a fight.

It's all very well saying Djokovic will decline, yet it helps that other players peak first!

looks like you could be right,the winner will be the last man standing...lol
has this ever happened before? 9 players retiring...its very very strange...
if there was a bug going around im sure the players would have mentioned it by now..

I know we laugh at the fact so many players are dropping like flies, but this is unprecedented surely.

From here on out I am hoping Del Potro can shake the foundations of this lacklustre tournament.

The retirements really have put a dampener on this.

it pretty much sums up this years lacklustre season in my opinion... apart from seeing djokovic complete his career grand slam and hold all 4 majors theres absolutely nothing else to rave about for tennis fans

I find the last 2 years I've been thinking that someone who come along and kick the establishment off the throne, and it hasn't happened. The rest of the field it seems carry battle scars from previous hidings from the established order. Coric and Thiem for example have had some good results and performances and put in some poor displays right when the momentum is with them. I reckon we will have to look at the generation coming behind them for change.

you really think so? 
i gotta agree that its been very disappointing cause i too thought on a few occasions that some players from the next generation were breaking through with some big wins over the veterans 
i certainly thought that when dimitrov beat defending champion murray at wimbledon...but look at the direction his career has gone since then
in my opinion the problem lies with how much the game has changed in recent years,since the running game and extreme fitness and endurance has become what it takes to win tournaments these fresh chickens just dont seem to have the stamina or proper training regimes to even stand a chance 
its truly bizarre if you look at previous eras cause currently 30 seems to be the new 20

just got this from over on THSP

if this is correct it seems to be becoming the norm,surprisingly last years u.s open saw far more retirements 

There've been 8 retirements on the men's side this year - Tsonga (QF), Thiem (R16), Youzhny (R3), Kyrgios (R3), Lacko (R1), Bagnis (R1), Dolgopolov (R1), Kohlschreiber (R1), and Coric (R1).

Plus Vesely had a walkover in round two.

On the women's side, there was just Hercog (R1) and Brengle (R1), though Sevastova could have retired in the quarters after hurting her ankle.

I was curious how these compared to the last four slams --

2016 Wimbledon
Women's Retirements (3): Bencic (R2), Gasparyan (R1), Tatishvilli (R1)
Men's Retirements (3): Nishikori (R16), Gasquet (R16), Kukushkin (w/o, R2)

2016 French Open
Women's Retirements (2): Allertova (R1), Azarenka (R1)
Men's Retirements (4): Nadal (w/o, R3), Tsonga (R3), Lajovic (R2), Klizan (R1)

2016 Australian Open
Women's Retirements (4): Kulichkova (R3), Rybarikova (R2), Duque (R1), Wolfe (R1)
Men's Retirements (5): Karlovic (R1), Querrey (R1), Anderson (R1), Tursonov (R1), Schwartzman (R1)

2015 US Open
Women's Retirements (3): Bouchard (w/o, R16), Erakovic (R1), Diatchenko (R1)
Men's Retirements (14): Goffin (R3), Sock (R2), Vesely (R2), Istomin (R2), Stepanek (R1), Andujar (R1), Dolgopolov (R1), Monfils (R1), Mayer (R1), Lu (R1), Gulbis (R1), Kokkinakis (R1), Nedovyesov (R1), Baghdatis (R1

Veejay wrote:

legendkillar wrote:

Veejay wrote:

legendkillar wrote:

Veejay wrote:

legendkillar wrote:So another retirement against Djokovic. These players aren't men because they don't have the balls to put up a fight.

It's all very well saying Djokovic will decline, yet it helps that other players peak first!

looks like you could be right,the winner will be the last man standing...lol
has this ever happened before? 9 players retiring...its very very strange...
if there was a bug going around im sure the players would have mentioned it by now..

I know we laugh at the fact so many players are dropping like flies, but this is unprecedented surely.

From here on out I am hoping Del Potro can shake the foundations of this lacklustre tournament.

The retirements really have put a dampener on this.

it pretty much sums up this years lacklustre season in my opinion... apart from seeing djokovic complete his career grand slam and hold all 4 majors theres absolutely nothing else to rave about for tennis fans

I find the last 2 years I've been thinking that someone who come along and kick the establishment off the throne, and it hasn't happened. The rest of the field it seems carry battle scars from previous hidings from the established order. Coric and Thiem for example have had some good results and performances and put in some poor displays right when the momentum is with them. I reckon we will have to look at the generation coming behind them for change.

you really think so? 
i gotta agree that its been very disappointing cause i too thought on a few occasions that some players from the next generation were breaking through with some big wins over the veterans 
i certainly thought that when dimitrov beat defending champion murray at wimbledon...but look at the direction his career has gone since then
in my opinion the problem lies with how much the game has changed in recent years,since the running game and extreme fitness and endurance has become what it takes to win tournaments these fresh chickens just dont seem to have the stamina or proper training regimes to even stand a chance 
its truly bizarre if you look at previous eras cause currently 30 seems to be the new 20

Indeed I do. Take Dimi. He got his fitness to a real high level that he could compete. Couldn't forget when he won Acapulco beating Murray in 3 by running him ragged and then Anderson in the final IIRC.

I do think that some of the more mentally fragile players who've lost consistently to Federer to Nadal to Djokovic and to Murray just submit to the inevitable defeat when facing them again. If you look over recent times, only Stans brute and blunt and consistent force has been able to counteract the running man. 

It needs someone's peak to come at the time of these players decline. Nothing has dislodged since. Nishikori/Raonic/Dimitrov/Tomic won't. Thiem/Coric/Zverev/Kyrgios look like struggling with that task.

FedererKing wrote:

Veejay wrote:

FedererKing wrote:He's playing Tsonga - a guy who trounced Nadal in his prime, and beat Federer from 2 sets down at Wimbledon.  It isn't a push over.

if tsonga gets hot he can blow anyone off the court with his serve alone,problem is he is very inconsistent throughout a match and can never really hold that level of play up for longer then 2 sets

That's true, but the whole "Oh he's in the final" is very naive indeed.  He has to beat 2 very good opponents and avoid injury. I wager that no-one saying that would go and put their money where their mouth is.

Tsonga is not "very mentally fragile"  and nor is Pouille.   Mentally fragile players don't beat Nadal in a final set tiebreaker with a winner - or come back from 2 sets down against Federer at Wimbledon (even the lesser player Fed was at the time v 2004-9 - and esp 2004-7).

From this to....

FedererKing wrote:Well, it's the crap Tsonga who has shown up.  This guy used ultra variety to absolutely sink Nadal - and he's back here trying to out rally Novak.  Why are all these players so pathetic with variety?  Don't they realize that Novak's stremgth is scrambling to points with modern easy racquets?  Do some underarm serves once in a while, do some short balls, drop shots - and a lot of attacking net approaches.

But no... they just carry on with the same doomed strategy.  There were SO MANY opportunities for a drop shot or short ball or net approach - and Tsonga just knocked it back to continue the rally.  It's not good.  If Novak gets to the final, it might be against Murray and that will be a right bore. 

Del Potro is the only player willing to take the time away from baseline bores. And he can win.

To quote Jack Burton "It's all in the reflexes"

You were referring to results over 6 years ago!! By all accounts by the laws of biology, Tsonga didn't stand a chance!

We'd all like to see Djokovic stopped in his tracks, but Tsonga who hasn't beaten him in 2 years wasn't going to do it. Esp in a BO5.

Djokovic is also on the older side and was supposedly supporting a wrist injury.  Tsonga played a great match before this one. He's also beaten Djok, Fed, and Nadal in slams.  I factored it all in.  I didn't factor in Djok being a primadonna - or Tsonga not turning up at all - or a knee injury.

But I didn't really expect him to win.  I just said it wasn't as certain as you thought, and it wasn't.  If I had had a bet on it for 1000, you wouldn't have taken it.  Saying you have won after the fact isn't any kind of triumph.

It's also still very naive of you to claim he is as good as in the final.  If Monfils beats him - or Djok gets injured - you will look like a prize plonker.  I have never claimed he won't get there - you have claimed he definitely will.  Even if he actually does, you're naive to say he definitely will.

But go and put your money where your mouth is.  Cheap points on here aren't very satisfying haha.

And the song I made about Tsonga was just for amusement. He missed the boat for a slam a long time ago - despite having the talent to do it.

Putting money on an opinion and winning doesn't doesn't add further validity to the outcome. It was certain. There was nothing in Tsongas form coming in and during this tournament that would suggest to me that he was ever going to beat Djokovic! Nothing in the form book remotely pointed to that outcome.

Tsonga is past his peak. He isn't beating Djokovic in a BO5 in this day and age.

It shows you aren't true to your convictions.  When there is a wager on it you aren't so sure all of a sudden. If you really were sure it is inevitable, you'd be a rich man betting. A man with a real wrist injury can lose to any player - that's just one of many things that can happen out there.  That's why the bookie is king and you are not.

I'd also add that Monfils hasn't dropped a set yet, so why you are so confident he is "definitely" going to lose is beyond me. A h2h isn't the be all and end all on a match by match basis.

I was sure and was proven right by the outcome. I don't need to wager of put money on it. If I said that I was sure England would not win the next World Cup, do I need to put money on it for that eventual outcome?

The H2H is a good indication of how a match might play out. However, let's cast that to one side. Put yourself in the shoes of a top player on the ATP. Take Djokovic and the dominance of the last 2 years. If the very best multi slam winners eg Federer, Nadal and Murray can't beat him at the slams, what do you think the rest of the field think? They'd likely think they don't have a chance either. 

Yes Djokovic has an injury and has suffered defeats at slams and other tournaments and is suffering an injury, however even with those factors, some scars are fresh in the mind.

You wasn't sure - because you wouldn't make any meaningful wager on it.  You are not a psychic - and saying "definitely" to any match makes you look silly. If Monfils wins, how silly are you going to look? And he might.

If Monfils wins, so be it. I ain't going to lose any sleep. Someone putting a wager on something they are certain on and lose are more foolish then the ones that don't.

So if Djokovic makes the final I shall crown myself the next Nostradamus

All kidding aside, if Djokovic was playing a more Unknown quantity I wouldn't be as certain.

Not that I think he will.  Monfils likely play like a pudding.  I think the only hope now is Wawrinka, who played brilliantly.  Nishikori will probably retire as usual.  Monfils might retire as well haha.

I agree. Wawrinka is the only one standing between Djokovic and the title. Just hope he doesn't fluff his lines before the final hurdle.

The way I see it:
Monfils can wear Nole out
Nishi can give him a tough 5 setter if he times his surges well
Stan needs to be in twilight zone to pull it off.

Having said this I am assumong Nole is fresh and at least 90% fit/healthy.

Stan can beat Djokovic without any twilight zone.  He just has to bring his A game - and so will Djokovic. If Novak thinks he can beat Wawrinka like all the other push overs just by turning up, he'll walk away trophyless - as he did at the FO that time.

FedererKing wrote:Stan can beat Djokovic without any twilight zone.  He just has to bring his A game - and so will Djokovic. If Novak thinks he can beat Wawrinka like all the other push overs just by turning up, he'll walk away trophyless - as he did at the FO that time.

I forgot what time the final is played.
It's not night session, is it?

Nishi played well yestrday, he can dispatch Stan no problem.

It will all be good matches.

Nishi has no consistency and has a poorer serve.  And, as I said before, I bet he retires. :P

FedererKing wrote:Nishi has no consistency and has a poorer serve.  And, as I said before, I bet he retires. :P

Tbh, anything is possible..but at least Murray and Nadal are out...

I think it will be a good match as they both think they can beat each other, so will fight to the bitter end, don't think there will be retirements in that match...MTOs...yes.

Stop watching behind you FK. Watch ahead. As i said im pretty sure you never saw Djoko , Stan or even Federer turning into multiple slam champions.....until  they became some. 

Nishi performance yesterday was outstanding. Shame you cant appreciate it.

Federer and Djokovic had done far more at 26 years of age than Nishikori has. Djokovic had 6 slams. Nishikori has 0.  And there is the fatal flaw in your comparison. You sound like you believe Nishikori is going to be some sort of superstar.  He isn't.

Where do you get these ideas? Do you think it's fair to compare Djokovic, with 6 slams at 26, to Nishikori - 0 slams at 26? Why am I the crazy one for believing Nishikori isn't even close to Djokovic or Federer? Enlighten me.

Federer had 12 slams at 26. His best years were 2004-7.  You telling me Nishikori is going to spring in to life now, at age 26, and do things that Federer was doing much earlier? He may still win the odd slam, but please get real in the belief he's going to dominate or even remotely match Djok/Fed.

When is he going to start showing some of this form you think he has, Tenez?

Veejay wrote:

FedererKing wrote:Well, it's the crap Tsonga who has shown up.  This guy used ultra variety to absolutely sink Nadal - and he's back here trying to out rally Novak.  Why are all these players so pathetic with variety?  Don't they realize that Novak's stremgth is scrambling to points with modern easy racquets?  Do some underarm serves once in a while, do some short balls, drop shots - and a lot of attacking net approaches.

But no... they just carry on with the same doomed strategy.  There were SO MANY opportunities for a drop shot or short ball or net approach - and Tsonga just knocked it back to continue the rally.  It's not good.  If Novak gets to the final, it might be against Murray and that will be a right bore. 

Del Potro is the only player willing to take the time away from baseline bores. And he can win.

so how much did you loose at the bookies this time?

£5.00  I make smart bets  I don't bet large sums on Tsonga beating Djokovic - I bet £100 on Wawrinka beating Djokovic at the FO, for example, and win.  I may put a small amount on him beating Djok here too. Depends what the odds are.  I am guessing not as good as they were when I bet 100 on the FO that time.

Edit.

They are offering 12/5.  I've popped a tenner on it.

Oh, and thanks for replying so intelligently to what I said :P

FedererKing wrote:

Veejay wrote:

FedererKing wrote:Well, it's the crap Tsonga who has shown up.  This guy used ultra variety to absolutely sink Nadal - and he's back here trying to out rally Novak.  Why are all these players so pathetic with variety?  Don't they realize that Novak's stremgth is scrambling to points with modern easy racquets?  Do some underarm serves once in a while, do some short balls, drop shots - and a lot of attacking net approaches.

But no... they just carry on with the same doomed strategy.  There were SO MANY opportunities for a drop shot or short ball or net approach - and Tsonga just knocked it back to continue the rally.  It's not good.  If Novak gets to the final, it might be against Murray and that will be a right bore. 

Del Potro is the only player willing to take the time away from baseline bores. And he can win.

so how much did you loose at the bookies this time?

£5.00  I make smart bets  I don't bet large sums on Tsonga beating Djokovic - I bet £100 on Wawrinka beating Djokovic at the FO, for example, and win.  I may put a small amount on him beating Djok here too. Depends what the odds are.  I am guessing not as good as they were when I bet 100 on the FO that time.

Edit.

They are offering 12/5.  I've popped a tenner on it.

Oh, and thanks for replying so intelligently to what I said :P

its a fair question,youre always bragging about how much youve won but you never tell us how much youve lost 

It's not really a fair question.  It came out of nowhere and was just a rather shitty annoying comment to make.  The reason you don't see me stating losses... is because the losses, when they do happen, are less than £11. And any big win is generally v big. I haven't had a big loss at tennis that I can remember.  Skill - but also luck

FedererKing wrote:It's not really a fair question.  It came out of nowhere and was just a rather shitty annoying comment to make.  The reason you don't see me stating losses... is because the losses, when they do happen, are less than £11. And any big win is generally v big. I haven't had a big loss at tennis that I can remember.  Skill - but also luck

well it clearly seems like i have struck a nerve...

FedererKing wrote:It's not really a fair question.  It came out of nowhere and was just a rather shitty annoying comment to make.  The reason you don't see me stating losses... is because the losses, when they do happen, are less than £11. And any big win is generally v big. I haven't had a big loss at tennis that I can remember.  Skill - but also luck

No but all those little ones you keep making certainly add up.

That's my betting history:

I started with £100....I have now £281.

But I made stupid losses.....and annoying ones....Evans.....had MP!!!!

Putting money on Murray when he was a set and a break down v Rao at Queens was a good one.

Odds Stake (£) Return (£) Status
07-Sep-16
23:10:14 K Nishikori v A Murray
A Murray - Match Odds
Betfair Bet ID O/0983728/0000019 | Placed: 07-Sep-16 22:04:32
1.5
40.00 0.00 Lost
07-Sep-16
23:10:15 K Nishikori v A Murray
K Nishikori - Match Odds
Betfair Bet ID O/0983728/0000018 | Placed: 07-Sep-16 19:31:37
11
20.00 220.00 Won
06-Sep-16
21:18:50 L Pouille v G Monfils
L Pouille - Match Odds
Betfair Bet ID O/0983728/0000017 | Placed: 06-Sep-16 12:31:34
5
30.00 0.00 Lost
05-Sep-16
20:59:01 I Marchenko v S Wawrinka
I Marchenko - Match Odds
Betfair Bet ID O/0983728/0000016 | Placed: 05-Sep-16 17:52:06
7.5
20.00 0.00 Lost
04-Sep-16
02:13:12 D Evans v S Wawrinka
D Evans - Match Odds
Betfair Bet ID O/0983728/0000015 | Placed: 04-Sep-16 01:03:13
2.37
50.00 0.00 Lost
31-Aug-16
23:01:31 R Harrison v M Raonic
R Harrison - Match Odds
Betfair Bet ID O/0983728/0000014 | Placed: 31-Aug-16 22:26:06
2.2
100.00 220.00 Won
06-Jul-16
20:46:23 J-W Tsonga v A Murray
J-W Tsonga - Match Odds
Betfair Bet ID O/0983728/0000013 | Placed: 06-Jul-16 15:56:42
Price Rush 7
7.5 10.00 0.00 Lost
06-Jul-16
18:02:48 T Berdych v L Pouille
L Pouille - Match Odds
Betfair Bet ID O/0983728/0000012 | Placed: 06-Jul-16 15:56:26
4
10.00 0.00 Lost
19-Jun-16
16:46:26 Andy Murray vs Milos Raonic
Milos Raonic - Match Odds
Betfair Bet ID O/0983728/0000011 | Placed: 19-Jun-16 15:47:41
1.61


68.00 0.00 Lost
19-Jun-16
16:46:26 Andy Murray vs Milos Raonic
Andy Murray - Match Odds
Betfair Bet ID O/0983728/0000010 | Placed: 19-Jun-16 15:34:37
8.5
20.00 170.00 Won

Tenez wrote:

FedererKing wrote:It's not really a fair question.  It came out of nowhere and was just a rather shitty annoying comment to make.  The reason you don't see me stating losses... is because the losses, when they do happen, are less than £11. And any big win is generally v big. I haven't had a big loss at tennis that I can remember.  Skill - but also luck

No but all those little ones you keep making certainly add up.

Not the odd 10 and 5 here and there. Not compared to the larger wins I have had like the Wawrinka win.  I am definitely +500 on the bookie - and probably a lot more. Sooner or later, though, I'll have a larger bet that fails. 

10 quid on Wawrinka to beat Djok this time.  Return isn't much - but the loss isn't either.

Snooker was poorer though.  I lost 100 quid on a bet on Doherty once. But then years later I won 500 on betting for Selby against Ronnie when Ronnie was miles ahead at WC.  I just knew he'd play his cretinous tricks and that Ronnie would revert to playing the defence game that Slowby loves.  So I'm ahead in snooker too... it's just that's a complete lotto 95% of the time, so I don't bother with it.  That Doherty bet was 100 quid on evens... and Wenbo won!  First time I'd even heard of him!

Football bets... forget it.  Definitely losing to bookie there.  Probably by about 100.  Stopped betting on it.  Draws cripple you.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p04757wz

Quite interesting. Does make me wonder how long Lendl will hang around for.

legendkillar wrote:http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p04757wz

Quite interesting. Does make me wonder how long Lendl will hang around for.

Interesting!

Any more details why?
Was Murray rude to Lendl, too?

Yes I had read teh news. Not sure whether it was disappointment of Murray's loss or Murray being rude.

noleisthebest wrote:

legendkillar wrote:http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p04757wz

Quite interesting. Does make me wonder how long Lendl will hang around for.

Interesting!

Any more details why?
Was Murray rude to Lendl, too?

At this time speculation. Lendl was pretty miffed with Andy's performance and some of his conduct during the Nishi match. Those berating habits never die.

Some of the forums suggest with DC coming up and the Asian swing, I think Paris is the next time Lendl is with Murray. I said previously the match was a scrappy affair and both tried to outdo throwing it away. Certainly a match that wasn't won and I was quite miffed at the performance of both. You'd expect Murray to come through such affairs.

Given the second honeymoon, don't think that was a defeat Lendl wanted to witness.