Rafa Nadal: Done Or Not?

I am trying to find stats about previous matches. THE ATP had a great match summary before for every match. Now they have simplifies it and there is hardly any interesting information. That's so frustrating .

Kim Jong-Un wrote:

noleisthebest wrote:
They need to follow their hero and move forward, take the ball early..."try their best" not hide behind Mod protection...

Rafa would be disappointed by such followers

Surely you have to be realistic and see that most Nadal fans would not want to join this forum. If there was a forum where most people hated Federer, do you think Federer fans would want to join ?

I dunno Kimmy...
For me, nothing beats a good challenge.

Btw...how can anyone "hate" Federer? The guy is a gift from God to tennis fans.

luvsports! wrote:Djokovic-Nadal matches are v gruelling. 
The first set was well over an hour. The tennis is different.

I cannot believe you don't see the drop in power. 
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DmjRRhD4CRI
Watch this. The difference between Rafa's shots and Novak's are huge. 
Nadal could outhit Novak in FO '14. Now he is lobotomised in that department.

I was there and from memory he was hitting the ball as hard as ever, I have to look at what I wrote about it then.
He had many chances, but Nole stood the ground and didn't panic.
It was not very different from 2014 final, just that it was a lot hotter that year and Nole collapsed physically as he does not do well in the heat.


In 2015 QF, Nadal received a time violation. I yelled out Viva Bernardes...
Maybe that did the trick

luvsports! wrote:Djokovic-Nadal matches are v gruelling. 
The first set was well over an hour. The tennis is different.

I cannot believe you don't see the drop in power. 
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DmjRRhD4CRI
Watch this. The difference between Rafa's shots and Novak's are huge. 
Nadal could outhit Novak in FO '14. Now he is lobotomised in that department.

Nadal naturally tends to hit the ball shorter when he loses confidence, and he certainly would have lost confidence after losing the first 2 sets of the match in the fashion that he did. 
We'll have to agree to disagree. I think his main problems have been his serving and his forehand unforced errors. I don't see any issue with power or stamina.

I am trying to find how much points were played in FO 2013....but already look at what I saw:

After securing a hold to go up 5-0, Djokovic offered his first measure of resistance in the set as he held serve as well to make it 5-1. The hold didn't seem to lift Djoker at all, though, as he missed an overhand smash to give Nadal a set point. Although the umpire penalized Nadal a point for slow play, the Spaniard was unflappable as he won the next point and took the third set, according to Roland Garros.
=======
So the rule may have been in place but for Nadal to be penalised a point he must have played very slowly. Besides I cannot remember being penalised a point.

Another good reason why Nadal tired faster in 2015 RG QF were the balls.

They were energy sapping heavy and big, custom-made for him by Babolat but they backfired as Nole who is a lot more energy efficient than Nadal outlasted him this time, esp as the weather was warm but bearable.

Then those same balls drained what was left of Nole by Murray and he had next to nothing in the tank for the final.

Kim Jong-Un wrote:I think it's just an example of people with fixed pre-held views ignoring any current evidence and trying to fit the situation to already back up what they already thought.

Not with me it isn't.  I am neutral on the whole drugs issue.  I have been consistent in my prediction and belief that age is the reason for Nadal and for Federer... and for Djokovic (it's soon to come).  Some around here are willfully ignoring the huge amount of evidence that what is happening to Nadal has happened to the majority of players approaching 30.

FedererKing wrote:

Kim Jong-Un wrote:I think it's just an example of people with fixed pre-held views ignoring any current evidence and trying to fit the situation to already back up what they already thought.

Not with me it isn't.  I am neutral on the whole drugs issue.  I have been consistent in my prediction and belief that age is the reason for Nadal and for Federer... and for Djokovic (it's soon to come).  Some around here are willfully ignoring the huge amount of evidence that what is happening to Nadal has happened to the majority of players approaching 30.

Well you know I agree with you on this issue more or less.

FedererKing wrote:

Kim Jong-Un wrote:I think it's just an example of people with fixed pre-held views ignoring any current evidence and trying to fit the situation to already back up what they already thought.

Not with me it isn't.  I am neutral on the whole drugs issue.  I have been consistent in my prediction and belief that age is the reason for Nadal and for Federer... and for Djokovic (it's soon to come).  Some around here are willfully ignoring the huge amount of evidence that what is happening to Nadal has happened to the majority of players approaching 30.

mmm moving the goal posts already? Not so long ago peaking for you was 24-26...then 27...now 30?

Just so you know the average age of the top 5 players is now over 30! with 3 players out of 5 over 30! So if their peak was 26 why were they lower ranked then?

Not at all.  The stats are quite clear, and you've been shown them a few times.  The "Average age" is not indicative of who is winning Slams.  Nor is an exception a rule.  As much as I loathe Nadal, even if he has drugged in the past that does not in any way negate the very real likelihood that his decline is age based.  It fits in perfectly with what happened to Sampras, Federer, and virtually every other big winner.  The only exception to that is McEnroe, who fell off the radar even earlier.

When Djokovic starts to seriously falter in the next year or two, will you be here blaming that on drugs?  or will it again be that the field suddenly caught up?  Why do you fear age being the sole factor?

Nadal has not been at his best for much longer than you'd think - you just need to look at the fact he has lost to Rank 100s FOUR times in a row at Wimbledon.  Either those rank 100s "caught up" to Nadal, or Nadal was on the decline.

Guess which I am going for.

An exception? You must be kidding. if 3 players out of top 5 are over 30 there is nothing of "an exception" in it.

YOu are really going a long stretch to ignore the basic facts of recent tennis! There is not a single person aged 26 or younger in the top 5...only 2 in the top 10!

Winning slam can be a piece of luck (Gaudio, Johnson, Cilic, etc...) the ATP ranking has nothing to do with luck...it's hard work over a whole year.

I think 2016 will determine if it really is a permanent decline. We can only go by Federer 2013/Murray 2014 which suggested an upturn in form the following seasons. Granted they cited injury as the reason, but seeing as Nadal and his team have been quiet on any potential injury, I think you then need to look at the mindset. You are talking of a guy with a precise nature who is quite maticulous and has a strong focus. If there is a chink or break in his mindset or confidence, it can have a real domino effect on the rest of the make up of his mindset. He looks like a guy devoid of any confidence.

legendkillar wrote:I think 2016 will determine if it really is a permanent decline. We can only go by Federer 2013/Murray 2014 which suggested an upturn in form the following seasons. Granted they cited injury as the reason, but seeing as Nadal and his team have been quiet on any potential injury, I think you then need to look at the mindset. You are talking of a guy with a precise nature who is quite maticulous and has a strong focus. If there is a chink or break in his mindset or confidence, it can have a real domino effect on the rest of the make up of his mindset. He looks like a guy devoid of any confidence.

Yes, but WHY all of a sudden when he should be in his absolute zenith and prime?

noleisthebest wrote:

legendkillar wrote:I think 2016 will determine if it really is a permanent decline. We can only go by Federer 2013/Murray 2014 which suggested an upturn in form the following seasons. Granted they cited injury as the reason, but seeing as Nadal and his team have been quiet on any potential injury, I think you then need to look at the mindset. You are talking of a guy with a precise nature who is quite maticulous and has a strong focus. If there is a chink or break in his mindset or confidence, it can have a real domino effect on the rest of the make up of his mindset. He looks like a guy devoid of any confidence.

Yes, but WHY all of a sudden when he should be in his absolute zenith and prime?

That's the $64,000 question.

In a way he is quite similar to that post FO 2009. he doesn't seem able to beat a top player, not even taking sets of them. I believe he did not take a set of a top 10 back then and everybody was talking of him having lost weight.

So far I have not heard anybody bar Navratilova saying he looks thinner.

It might also be that they have chosen to make him lighter so he can last longer like Nole. For that he woudl need to hit flatter....hence more risky shot, less spin and of course less confidence.

It just might be strategic! But if that is the case they got that wrong as his lack of spin made him run more than he woudl have had he had more spin in the ball....

Nadal is mentally cracked, there is no body issue for sure and I do not see a way to get out of it.

There are many things which go against him as he has never been a "normal" tennis player. 

He is not able to keep a high level of his brutal physical game for three sets currently and it won't be better.  There is a bunch of players who are able to handle his ultra moonballing.  It is too late start with a change of positioning and playing early and flatter. His aura invincibility has finished and he loses with many players repeatedly. His Toni sits firmly on his bench and no way that somebody could threaten his position. His antics, bullying and cheating don't work anymore so it  would be interisting to hear what wisdom come out from Toni atm.
 
His chances to add another GS are really poor. I see him that  he will focus on clay season where he can possibly win a Master or somewhere else unless Larry will slow down a surface for him.

Dont take me wrong he still be a big obstacle in draws and will drain much energy from players.

He is just artificially made a marketing product by Babolat and organizers, who  have been going to Toni with open arms in order to have somebody competitive with Fed and then money reason.

But let's look where is Fed now at his 34 and Nadal just at 29. Justice has been done.

paulcz wrote:
His chances to add another GS are really poor. I see him that  he will focus on clay season where he can possibly win a Master or somewhere else unless Larry will slow down a surface for him.

Dont take me wrong he still be a big obstacle in draws and will drain much energy from players.

He is just artificially made a marketing product by Babolat and organizers, who  have been going to Toni with open arms in order to have somebody competitive with Fed and then money reason.

But let's look where is Fed now at his 34 and Nadal just at 29. Justice has been done.

Well said, Paul.

Who would have thought in 2013 that in 2015 Fed will be having more chances of winning a slam than Nadal!

Next year will be very interesting.

I have been so traumatised by years of his "comebacks" I still can't quite relax and believe he is done.

Are we going to witness the evolution of Nadal? It's clear he needs a change up as for so long being the best baseliner, he has been usurped. So it's a case of now, what does he have? 

Not much I would say!

noleisthebest wrote:

paulcz wrote:
His chances to add another GS are really poor. I see him that  he will focus on clay season where he can possibly win a Master or somewhere else unless Larry will slow down a surface for him.

Dont take me wrong he still be a big obstacle in draws and will drain much energy from players.

He is just artificially made a marketing product by Babolat and organizers, who  have been going to Toni with open arms in order to have somebody competitive with Fed and then money reason.

But let's look where is Fed now at his 34 and Nadal just at 29. Justice has been done.

Well said, Paul.

Who would have thought in 2013 that in 2015 Fed will be having more chances of winning a slam than Nadal!

Next year will be very interesting.

I have been so traumatised by years of his "comebacks" I still can't quite relax and believe he is done.

I like the curent lineup at the top,  all top 4 players are exceptional players. We have one genius, one who is able to adapt to everything on the court, then the bravest and most dynamite SHBH player ever and then one let's say who is fun to watch when is frustrated especially in an unsuccesful chasing the ball.

I feel that next year should be without big changes here. Nadal can happen a boogie in draws when he will drop out of top10 players.

legendkillar wrote:Are we going to witness the evolution of Nadal? It's clear he needs a change up as for so long being the best baseliner, he has been usurped. So it's a case of now, what does he have? 

Not much I would say!

Nearly nothing real.

Unless Toni will force to ITF for some changes in ranking and seeding into tournaments and push so that  all players have to play lefty or more than 5 meters behind BL.

But who knows, doctors can be very inventive in Nadal's case.

Tenez wrote:An exception? You must be kidding. if 3 players out of top 5 are over 30 there is nothing of "an exception" in it.

YOu are really going a long stretch to ignore the basic facts of recent tennis! There is not a single person aged 26 or younger in the top 5...only 2 in the top 10!

Winning slam can be a piece of luck (Gaudio, Johnson, Cilic, etc...) the ATP ranking has nothing to do with luck...it's hard work over a whole year.

And who is winning all the slams?

Also, you do not win Slams through luck.

 It won't be long until the 30 range drop out completely. But the Slam winners are the real gauge.  Federer is an absolute minority and even he's not doing anything like he used to.

Stan is 30.

noleisthebest wrote:Stan is 30.

And has nowhere near the miles on the clock that Nadal and Federer do.  But he's seriously underachieved.  he should have been winning Slams long before he did.  But let's look at the overall picture.  Who are the ones who have been winning Slams in the last 3 years?

2013:

Nadal (2)
Djokovic (1)
Murray (1)

2014:

Nadal (1)
Wawrinka (1)
Djokovic (1)
Cilic(1)

2015:

Djokovic (2)
Wawrinka (1)

In the last 3 years, only Wawrinka has been a player over 29 to win a Slam.  He was 30 in 2015.

ALL of the rest (10 of 11) were younger than 30.  Those are the FACTS.

And you can extend that back and all you'll find are exceptions like Federer and Agassi.

Sorry, but I really don't see your point, FK.

We seem to disagree on players' prime.

I think currently it's 28 physically.
The game is quite complex and cannot be compared to what it was 20-30 years ago.
Strings have changed, as you mentioned, but also fitness abilities.
So it's natural that physical peak changes as well with the help of medicine.

Nadal's problems are not physical. Even he says it.

FedererKing wrote:And you can extend that back and all you'll find are exceptions like Federer and Agassi.

but tennis is changing -actually because technology doesn't players don't get pushed out by youngsters having learnt tennis with new technologies-. Djoko is winning slams now and he is 28. That's already 2 years more than your 26yo peak.

You keep saying it's changing, but you hve no stats or facts to back it up.  The slam winners are 10/11 younger than 30 in the last 3 years.  And it will drop back down to mid 20s sooner or later, as well.

FedererKing wrote:You keep saying it's changing, but you hve no stats or facts to back it up.  The slam winners are 10/11 younger than 30 in the last 3 years.  And it will drop back down to mid 20s sooner or later, as well.

You are just turning a bling eye. 10 years ago the average age of the top 5 was 23 or 24. now it is 7 years older....What kind of other stats do you need?

Tenez wrote:

FedererKing wrote:You keep saying it's changing, but you hve no stats or facts to back it up.  The slam winners are 10/11 younger than 30 in the last 3 years.  And it will drop back down to mid 20s sooner or later, as well.

You are just turning a bling eye. 10 years ago the average age of the top 5 was 23 or 24. now it is 7 years older....What kind of other stats do you need?  

Look at Anderson...29 now. Why isn't he declining faster than Murray...himself already 28? How good was Kevin at 25/26? Can't you see how much progress he has made since? Do you really think Kevin is playing worse now than 3 years ago? I am not here to be right...I am just trying to open your eyes....but you don't seem willing.

Every circumstance is different and has a ton of variables.  It's only the overall picture that matters or gives perspective.  The overall picture is that, overwhelmingly, Slams are being won by under 30s.  That's always been the case.

Until that stat changes, you are wrong.  It's that simple. 

Nadal losing more in the last couple of years is entirely consistent with the norm.

FedererKing wrote:Every circumstance is different and has a ton of variables.  It's only the overall picture that matters or gives perspective.  The overall picture is that, overwhelmingly, Slams are being won by under 30s.  That's always been the case.

Until that stat changes, you are wrong.  It's that simple. 

Nadal losing more in the last couple of years is entirely consistent with the norm.

Nole is only a year younger than Nadal and not going anywhere in a hurry. At 28, he is probably having the best year of his career.

His best year is factually 2011.  That was Novak's peak year and he won't reach that standard again because of age.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_Novak_Djokovic_tennis_season

But 28 is not 30.

FedererKing wrote:...
Until that stat changes, you are wrong.  It's that simple. 

Completely agree. So far this year the 3 slams have been won by 2 players whose average age is 29! So I am afraid I am right!
...by your own criteria!

The average over 3 years is not.  You pick and choose small samples and examples.  Nadal is entering the tail end of his career, like nearly all those before him, he is not playing as well as he used to.  That is completely normal.  Blaming drugs rather than age is complete conjecture and has no basis in reality.  The stats on this are absolute and impossible to argue against.  Most players in their late 20s start to tail off and lose more.  Novak has not long to go, either.  He could be an exception but I doubt it.  Nadal was always going to be a player that suffered more due to his reliance on defence and stamina and speed, all of which are greatly affected by age.

Note running... Bolt isn't going close to his record of years ago in any of the events.  The reason is age.

nah... I don;t pick and choose. It's been a slow process for all the reasons I have been given you. But again you don't want to hear and see.

In the pre-open era when conds were stable players were playing well in their 30s and 40s even. Rod Laver was 31 when he won his real pro slam! That's by far his greatest achievement.

I am talking tennis here not 100m race...and even there I can give you name like Carl Lewis, Gatlin  or Linford and you can check what age was their best time...

Actually, let me clarify that... the declining process starts earlier (hard to judge but the stats place prime years between 21 and 27).  For the vast majority of players, their winning days are already well over by 30.