Cov 19! what works?

So I bet Amri still thinks lockdown works. The restrictions are not over yet but the UK scientists are back to square 1. Will easing measures see an exponential rise of cases? I bet you won't see much on the curves.

Likewise with vaxes! I had a discussion with a London friend this morning. He felt confident he was safe with his double dose. I found it hilarious that a few minutes later his Health Minister got covid in spite of his double dose.

I am sure the media will push for more lockdowns like they push for compulsory vax in France.

What a world!

Do you know the details of UK stats and policy?

You're wrong on so many counts it's actually laughable.

1. We've been gradually lifting restrictions for months already. Tomorrow some more restrictions will be lifted, ie large events and nightclubs. Cases have been going up since we officially went out of 'lockdown' (stay at home order lifted) in May.

2. If people comply with lockdown, as they did in the UK, cases go down. Conducting cross country comparisons where 20 confounding variables are fluctuating and pretending you can isolate one variable (lockdown) and draw conclusions is the definition of a fallacy.

Covid is a virus that spreads by human to human interaction. Lockdown, on average, reduces number of human to human interactions. Therefore lockdown reduces Covid spread.

3. The UK is NOT back to square 1. The cases are rising, but deaths have remained low! For example, the last time we had 50K cases like now, Covid deaths were above 1000. However Covid deaths in the UK now are around 50-60. This is because the vaccine death prevention is high (95%+).

4. Sajid Javid having Covid despite being double jabbed; and in fact vaccinated people spreading Covid, is actually not unexpected.
Data showed that against the delta variant:
-2 doses of Astra Zeneca has 60% efficacy at stopping symptomatic Covid.
-1 dose of either AZ or Pfizer has 30% efficacy at stopping symptomatic Covid.

Sajid Javid had 2 doses of AZ, which is the most common vaccine used in UK so far. It's not surprising that he (or many youngsters who have only had one dose) are getting Covid given those stats. However, he is well protected against hospitalisations (92% efficacy).

HIS20RY wrote:Do you know the details of UK stats and policy?

You're wrong on so many counts it's actually laughable.

1. We've been gradually lifting restrictions for months already. Tomorrow some more restrictions will be lifted, ie large events and nightclubs. Cases have been going up since we officially went out of 'lockdown' (stay at home order lifted) in May.

2. If people comply with lockdown, as they did in the UK, cases go down. Conducting cross country comparisons where 20 confounding variables are fluctuating and pretending you can isolate one variable (lockdown) and draw conclusions is the definition of a fallacy.

Covid is a virus that spreads by human to human interaction. Lockdown, on average, reduces number of human to human interactions. Therefore lockdown reduces Covid spread.

3. The UK is NOT back to square 1. The cases are rising, but deaths have remained low! For example, the last time we had 50K cases like now, Covid deaths were above 1000. However Covid deaths in the UK now are around 50-60. This is because the vaccine death prevention is high (95%+).

4. Sajid Javid having Covid despite being double jabbed; and in fact vaccinated people spreading Covid, is actually not unexpected.
Data showed that against the delta variant:
-2 doses of Astra Zeneca has 60% efficacy at stopping symptomatic Covid.
-1 dose of either AZ or Pfizer has 30% efficacy at stopping symptomatic Covid.

Sajid Javid had 2 doses of AZ, which is the most common vaccine used in UK so far. It's not surprising that he (or many youngsters who have only had one dose) are getting Covid given those stats. However, he is well protected against hospitalisations (92% efficacy).

There is a sermon and a half in here, but I dunno where to start...so I won't!

noleisthebest wrote:

There is a sermon and a half in here, but I dunno where to start...so I won't!

Well considering you've said before that you don't think evolution is real, you must be having a tough time getting to grips with the idea that Covid has mutated into more contagious variants.

HIS20RY wrote:Do you know the details of UK stats and policy?

You're wrong on so many counts it's actually laughable.

1. We've been gradually lifting restrictions for months already. Tomorrow some more restrictions will be lifted, ie large events and nightclubs. Cases have been going up since we officially went out of 'lockdown' (stay at home order lifted) in May.
....

Yeah..whatever. Boris and his scientists don't think like you obviously!

Tenez wrote:
Yeah..whatever. Boris and his scientists don't think like you obviously!

What do you mean? I support the decision to lift restrictions now. Vaccines have severely weakened the link between cases and deaths, and all over 50s and those with pre-existing conditions have been offered 2 doses.

It's still spreading like in January....whereas in Jan that spread forced severe lockdown. Now it seems they understood locking down was not necessary cause inefficient.

But I know you will not want to understand....like in tennis.

Tenez wrote:It's still spreading like in January....whereas in Jan that spread forced severe lockdown. Now it seems they understood locking down was not necessary cause inefficient.

But I know you will not want to understand....like in tennis.

Well, the cases definitely went down from January until the spring (lockdown in place during this time). Look at this graph:
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases

The reason they're opening up now, despite no lockdown and cases going up, is because most vulnerable people are vaccinated, and it's significantly reduced hospitalisations and deaths from Covid.

..and that's India's curve without lockdown!

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/india/

Spot the difference!

Tenez wrote:..and that's India's curve without lockdown!

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/india/

Spot the difference!

India's covid figures (cases and deaths) are a massive undercount because their testing capabilities are minuscule compared to their population size. Quite a few of their states did eventually go into lockdown in 2021 (the states which experienced bulk of 2nd wave), but it was far too late.
I have extended family in India and what happened there with Covid was truly horrifying. Hospitals ran out of oxygen. I know doctors there who got assaulted by patients' families because the medical system was so overwhelmed that no treatment could be given.

I think India may well have herd immunity now because the spread was so extensive. Luckily the UK will reach herd immunity through our vaccination programme instead. Give it 1-2 months.

You are a joke. So according to you the sharp rise and decline of the indian curve is based on their testing capabilities. if they had more tests they'd still show a climbing number of sick people.

As castastrophic as it was, they have more than six times less casualties by million of inhabitants than we have in UK and France!!!!

you dont care about facts do you?

Tenez wrote:You are a joke. So according to you the sharp rise and decline of the indian curve is based on their testing capabilities. if they had more tests they'd still show a climbing number of sick people.

That's not what I said, at all.

I said the minuscule testing capabilities explains why the stats are a massive undercount.

They don't change the shape of the curve. The decline now may well be explained by herd immunity, because the spread (mostly unrecorded) was so extensive. Most states also went into lockdown of varying severities, my cousins are still working from home.

Tenez wrote:
As castastrophic as it was, they have more than six times less casualties by million of inhabitants than we have in UK and France!!!!

you dont care about facts do you?

No way is this true:

https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2021/04/30/992451165/india-is-counting-thousands-of-daily-covid-deaths-how-many-is-it-missing?t=1626688470937

Results of a third national serological survey conducted in December and January showed that roughly a fifth of India's population had been exposed to the virus. That meant for every recorded coronavirus case, almost 30 went undetected.

But Banaji noted that capturing cases varies drastically from rural to urban areas. "You have much better detection of cases in urban areas. So for example in Delhi, about 10% of cases were being detected," he said. "Whereas in some areas of rural Bihar, considerably less than 1% of infections were being detected."

Also Tenez, I'm struggling to understand the precise nature of your conspiracy theory.

Anyone can find stats from developing countries where data is unreliable, or start doing cross country comparisons to wrongly assume correlation = causation by ignoring confounding variables.

The key question is this: Let's say you were a governor of a state in India. Covid has spread to the extent that hospitals are running out of beds and oxygen.
Why would you not put in restrictions such as lockdown that limit human to human interaction?

Is it is because:
a) You think Covid itself is fake, and these patients are just faking their symptoms and pretending to need oxygen.
b) You think Covid doesn't spread through human to human transmissions, so thus policies to limit human interactions won't reduce Covid spread.

Covid is not fake but it is not leprosies. Its danger has been blown out of proportion...so that money can be made out of vax. Pharma is the new car or IT industry helping few people making tons of cash.

I know at least 3000 people directly and probably much more through all the public people I know. So clearly, if we have 1900 death for every million, then one person out of 500 I know (way over 6 would have died from it). Yet I know only 1. The mother of my best friend who was 79 and mostly died cause she was old, over weight but worse she lived in Egypt and they had not given her Oxygene.

So the main reason I don;t know all those people who died is probably cause they were old and not of my (oldish too)  generation (besides the unlucky ones who died of it younger).
So my point is you do not lock a whole country to save a few months out of old or unlucky people.

Look at the list of famous people who died from it. I know only a 1/3rd of them and they are on average pretty old.
https://www.wonderwall.com/celebrity/stars-who-died-coronavirus-covid-19-3022682.gallery?photoId=405370

My baker, hairdresser, butcher, tax collector and annoying neighbour still around. Not yours?

Boris and the UK scientists now agree that Sweden and Tenez had it right from day 1.

..and you were wrong once again.

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-57962995

Facts are annoying isn't it?

I've said earlier in the thread I supported reopening now, because our vaccination programme has been a massive success and large numbers are immune. 

A contributor to recent fluctuation is the Euros. Many people during England matches met in groups which sent cases up, but cases decreasing since Euros was over (once you take into account incubation period lag time).
Not exactly rocket science considering it's a virus that spreads through human to human transmission...  

I think we've reached herd immunity now, through vaccines (47 million vaccinated) and natural infection (spike partly caused by Euros). Hence, I think the case numbers will stay steady or keep decreasing.

Tenez wrote:I know at least 3000 people directly and probably much more through all the public people I know. So clearly, if we have 1900 death for every million, then one person out of 500 I know (way over 6 would have died from it). Yet I know only 1. The mother of my best friend who was 79 and mostly died cause she was old, over weight but worse she lived in Egypt and they had not given her Oxygene.

This is a very unscientific approach, as it's anecdotal evidence based on people you know. The rate of people who I know have died is greater than the average case fatality rate, but that doesn't prove the CFR is an underestimate either. 

So my point is you do not lock a whole country to save a few months out of old or unlucky people. 

It is true that increasing age and co-morbidities is a significant risk factor for covid mortality, but I feel this attitude from you is disrespectful and also lacks compassion. 
If people hadn't reduced their human to human contact and thus reduce transmission (through following lockdown laws or voluntary actions), the death toll would have been even higher.

Yes Facts are annoying as we know when you have to masturbate your brain out to come up with explanations as to why the cov cases drops while people are actually free of restrictions.

As I always mentioned you just had to look at other countries prior to mass vax and who never went into lockdown to see that Cov could also vanish on its own without help of vax or lockdown.

A simple fact as I said you simply cannot admit. You'd rather distort realty to suit your comprehension or ego. Nothing new there.,

Tenez wrote:Yes Facts are annoying as we know when you have to masturbate your brain out to come up with explanations as to why the cov cases drops while people are actually free of restrictions.

Due to lag time (5 day incubation period + 1-2 days to get test results), we haven't seen the impact of the July 19th restrictions lifted yet, in terms of case numbers.  
The rules were the same during July before the 19th, so the fluctuation up and then down cannot be explained by a change in restrictions. I think there is a significant possibility that human behaviour during Euros influenced this fluctuation. The same pattern was noticed in Scotland, who exited the Euros a few weeks before us.
Furthermore, I think the increase in cases and vaccinations during July have helped us reach herd immunity in the UK, hence I don't think we'll see Covid spike again.

Tenez wrote:
As I always mentioned you just had to look at other countries prior to mass vax and who never went into lockdown to see that Cov could also vanish on its own without help of vax or lockdown.

Vanish? There's a rational scientific explanation to all of the data.
Cases could go down due to less human interaction (government mandates and/or voluntary changes in behaviour cause this). Alternatively, it could be due to herd immunity. Herd immunity can be attained by a high % of population being either infected or vaccinated.

Tenez wrote:
You'd rather distort realty to suit your comprehension or ego. Nothing new there.

What do you mean ego? I haven't mentioned myself at all.
You're using some crude language, while I'm answering your questions with logic and science. Happy to help.

It's a total scam and has been since day 1.  It's about control and power and people have willingly given up their basic freedoms for a virus no more deadly than the flu - all because they're dumb and the media told them it was deadly.

Daniel2 wrote:It's a total scam

If it is a scam, then how do you explain Nole's loss to Zverev?  Clearly, he is suffering from the effects of long haul covid.

summerblues wrote:

Daniel2 wrote:It's a total scam

If it is a scam, then how do you explain Nole's loss to Zverev?  Clearly, he is suffering from the effects of long haul covid.

So he had no effects in AO, RG & W? 

Zverev would of beaten him today too, he toyed around with Kacha.

Even worst Djokobich quit the Mixed doubles for bronze and left her partner with no medal.

I think he woke up and understood that his real country is Monaco and not Serbia, so why bother?