Time to go?

I’ve watched Federer play in adversity over many years; with a bad back, ill with mono, with a knee injury, with a smaller racquet, in conditions dreadful to an attacking game or stuck with the wrong tactics against Nadal. All these times it’s been possible to argue that better times could be around the corner.

But yesterday I watched him just be not as good as a very ordinary rival. His serve lacks bite and the great backhand of 2017 seems to have shrunk away. Zverev would have been dismissed with ease by peak Federer yet it was another exercise in determination staving off the inevitable.

I can’t for the life of me see where #21 comes from, not now with Djokovic fully restored. Unless there’s an injury we don’t know about and which there’s a reasonable chance of clearing up, isn’t this this where a player retires?

On the other hand he was close to beat Novak a couple of weeks ago like he could have won yesterday. 

However we have seen fragility in the past and to me his winning a couple more slams recently was mainly down to luck not having to play a couple of exhausting players (Djoko and Murray) on his way to finals as well as having key resting days before those slams finals.

He's still winning titles and has another good year in him.  But I'd make next year his last if I were him. The balance has now started shifting due to age firmly into the loss side.  #21 could easily happen with the right draw - and Djokovic is not going to win all of them or even make the final of all of them.

Think there needs to be some frank perspective. The fairytale of 2017 and into early 2018 had some rather favourable circumstances about it. Mainly we saw 2017 be the year that the Bluetack and rubber bands holding the bodies of Djokovic and Murray finally break and saw them effectively whimper out of 2017. We also saw Federer become one with the new racquet and shore up that BH. The 100th NextGen were still yet to make inroads and importantly Nadal was still a shade of pale from his pomp days. It was the perfect scenario for Federer and boy he made hay when the sun shone. 

This kind of slump was to be expected tbh. I think we anticipated that Djokovic would get his act together and that Federer physically couldn't avoid niggles that would hamper him more in tournaments. 

If Federer chucked in his hand now, I wouldn't have any qualms. However I would add this. Nadal and Djokovic's invincibility is looking less more formidable and Zverev and Tsitsipas when on song will be more than a handful, so whilst favourable draws seem Federer's hope of a #21 Slam, I think what we have in Zverev and Tsitsipas is nearly tamed power and the legs to challenge Nadal and Djokovic. 

I think Federer has one more round left in him and then call it quits.

Whilst I agree that a slam win is very unlikely, I think there's enough in the tank to give 2019 a decent go for sure.  He might well drop off quickly and face a disappointment like 2013, but even a poor year won't 'tarnish' anything, and it's all to do with how much he enjoys himself.

There are fair ways of analysing his 2018 and his prospects which suggest that bb's gloom is excessive.  If you take his AO win away from him he's still in the top 8, and his Autumn-Winter H/C season was none too shabby compared to normal mortals, namely 20:6 including a tournament win after Wimbledon, namely a 76% w/l which is still an 'all-time great' level.  His match vs. Djoko in Paris was a high standard. Only Nadal at 5 won more titles than him and several others on 4 over the season, and he made 7 finals.  He is still measured against the impossibly high standards he has set, which if anything were exaggerated by the astonishing and serendipitous 2017. He remains the biggest crowd-puller in the sport, and either the top, or one of the top 3, 'scalps' that up and coming players want to claim.  As LK has said, his main rivals are not as dominant as they were 3-4 years ago.

He will play in 2019 same, a warmup event before each GS apart from RG, and maybe 1-2 US Masters due to warm weather.

Also I think Uniqlo's $300M were with a deal that Fed play Olympics in Tokyo, probably with huge adverts from Uniqlo who makes very little sports clothing compared to their normal pants, shirts and other daily/business everyday clothes, and recoup a little of those 300M.

Yeah, forgot that. It's bound to include Tokyo.

Anyway, he did better in his semi than Djokovic did yesterday.

If he doesn't fuckup the AO i.e goes to Final/Wins, he will mostly be seed 2 or 3 so with Djoko will be a Final mostly, and we only need a big hitter/runner to knock out Djoko before the Final

He is quitting next year.. I guarantee you it's his last season

2019 Basel is his last tournament on the tour

So that's how L'Equipe's 2013 prediction for the 2018 ATP Top-10 turned out

https://twitter.com/AnnaK_4ever/status/1064216092766277632/photo/1

Fed and Nadal were not even inside top 10 predicted.

AceofDeath wrote:He is quitting next year.. I guarantee you it's his last season

2019 Basel is his last tournament on the tour

I also think so. Either Wimby 19 or Nitto Final But I can't see him bother after 2019....unless Uniqlo's $$ forces him to.

AceofDeath wrote:He is quitting next year.. I guarantee you it's his last season

2019 Basel is his last tournament on the tour

Not sure it will be Basel - He may see the year out.

Federer is not concentrating on tennis as much as its required to be a top player. He isn't training much. Some injuries are showing up on the ageing body.

I don't blame him, it's perfectly normal. The level of professionalism required in tennis can cause burnout. How many years can a guy do it? No matter how much he loves playing tennis, at pro level 'playing' is not much fun when not winning for someone who has been winning most of his life.

Winning another slam? With each passing slam, he needs more and more favourable conditions. So not impossible but highly unlikely. Wimbledon is his best chance.

More TMS 1000? Maybe 1 more, but still like slams need some good draws and results in his favour.

ATP 500 : likely to win 2/4 of the Rotterdam/Dubai/Basel/Halle which he normally plays.

ATP250: Will play more of those if reaching 109 titles is an aim for him.

So if he plays all year in 2019, he will collect 3-4 titles. which makes him 102-103 titles.

The thing is I am not sure what an extra slam would bring to his career, unless it is the FO.

I'd like to see him play more v Nadal and amend that H2H if possible.

Barring injury, I’d be very surprised if he retires before Tokyo 2020. I’d expect him to call it a day at Basel that year (or the WTF if he makes it). 

Based on performances, retirement talk seems premature anyway. He’s a current slam holder and was in the hunt for the title at Cincy, Paris and WTF in the latter part of the year. He isn’t playing as well as he was a year or so ago but he’s not out of contention yet.

I wouldn't mind him never playing Nadal again. The narrative, if you like that sort of thing, is that eventually he worked him out and went on the (equal) longest continuous running streak either of them ever achieved against the other. A nice counter to the h2h rubbish. A 6th would be nice but breaking the streak wouldn't.

Another Slam, as others are saying, requires extraordinary convergence of events. The French is out, forget it, he's played his last on clay and someone like Coric would crunch him. The US appears wedded to being a slow court. That leaves the newly-enlightened Australian and of course Wimbledon. Maybe, if the stars completely aligned, just maybe.

Weird double posting going on here.

Barring injury, I’d be very surprised if he retires before Tokyo 2020. I’d expect him to call it a day at Basel that year (or the WTF if he makes it). 

Based on performances, retirement talk seems premature anyway. He’s a current slam holder and was in the hunt for the title at Cincy, Paris and WTF in the latter part of the year. He isn’t playing as well as he was a year or so ago but he’s not out of contention yet.

Barring injury, I’d be very surprised if he retires before Tokyo 2020. I’d expect him to call it a day at Basel that year (or the WTF if he makes it). 

Based on performances, retirement talk seems premature anyway. He’s a current slam holder and was in the hunt for the title at Cincy, Paris and WTF in the latter part of the year. He isn’t playing as well as he was a year or so ago but he’s not out of contention yet.

Slippy wrote:Barring injury, I’d be very surprised if he retires before Tokyo 2020. I’d expect him to call it a day at Basel that year (or the WTF if he makes it). 

Based on performances, retirement talk seems premature anyway. He’s a current slam holder and was in the hunt for the title at Cincy, Paris and WTF in the latter part of the year. He isn’t playing as well as he was a year or so ago but he’s not out of contention yet.

He is finding difficult to beat Medvedev, Coric, Nishikori etc... guys whom he may be meeting in rnd2, rnd3, rnd4. If he struggling in earlier rounds, he almost impossible for him to win if faced by a Nadal/Djokovic/Zverev in SF and then in finals. Unless someone knocks them out and makes its a bit easier.

So you can't call him out of contention yet, sure. 

I would like him to play enough to get 110+ titles which mean 11 more. That would require min 2 years. so 2020 Fed is playing.

I'd be very surprised if he gets another 11 titles. The slippery slope is now steepening fast at that age. Not so long ago he was still flying on the court. Now he looks slower even when rested.

Sure he can, chase another 10 x ATP250 in exotic places he has never played and be done with it, let fans see you play that never dreamed of seeing him Live, new places, quick 4 matches, fun!!

yup.  Easy enough with ATP 250s.

Toni also thinks Fed won't win another slam.

https://www.bbc.com/sport/tennis/46287522

What I find funny is that he thought only the decline of the top 3 would allow the yougsters to reach the top but he has no changed his mind about it, it seems.

I think Federer is the only player in the history of tennis that has been overtaken by his decline. All the others found their masters before declining.

Uncle Moron isn't any authority.

Daniel wrote:yup.  Easy enough with ATP 250s.

And to be fair Connors tally is packed with garbage.

Yeah - I mean for all the clout Connors' record gets - the fact is Federer is approaching 100 with 20 slams. Connors isn't exactly close.

I think that the overall tournament record isn't such a big one in terms of a measure of greatness.

According to Wiki/ATP (and not completely sure of translating Connors's & Lendl's results to today's regime):

Connors  at 109 overall had  8 slams, 3 y/e championships, 17 Masters equivalents,  49 500 equivalents, and 32 250 equivalents.
Federer   at  99 has            20 slams, 6 y/e,                       27 Masters,                   21 500's,                       25 250's
Lendl      at   94 had             8 slams, 7 y/e,                       22 Masters,                   22 500's,                       42 250's                     
Nadal      at  80 has            17 slams, 0 y/e,                       33 Masters,                   21 500's inc 1 Olympics    9 250's
Djoko      at  72 has            14 slams, 5 y/e,                       32 Masters,                   12 500's                          9 250's

Assuming that Nadal and Djoko have the odd slam and a few more Masters left in them, if Fed picks up mostly 500's and 250's from now on, his overall tournament wins score will not be his most impressive statistic by a margin

Connors record really is a fraud, put like that. I knew he accumulated loads in the US in joke fields and short draws.

Federer was clearly hampered due to injury for much of 2018. In fact I spotted the difference immediately in Halle and said so at the time. He later stated that he'd hurt his wrist in Halle. That injury prevented him from regaining top form for the rest of the year. The serve at times was atrocious and the FH was a liability.

Of course these types of injuries are par for the course for older players and the accumulation of them may well spell the end. However, I believe if he can have a good run of fitness (6 months) then he's a strong contender in Aus and at Wimbledon. 

I think he's got another slam let in him. Djokovic is beatable if Fed can get close to his 2017 form. I think he'll play 2019 and 2020. If he can keep his body together he'll have opportunities to add to his slam count in both of those years.

Emancipator wrote:Federer was clearly hampered due to injury for much of 2018. In fact I spotted the difference immediately in Halle and said so at the time. He later stated that he'd hurt his wrist in Halle. That injury prevented him from regaining top form for the rest of the year. The serve at times was atrocious and the FH was a liability.

Of course these types of injuries are par for the course for older players and the accumulation of them may well spell the end. However, I believe if he can have a good run of fitness (6 months) then he's a strong contender in Aus and at Wimbledon. 

I think he's got another slam let in him. Djokovic is beatable if Fed can get close to his 2017 form. I think he'll play 2019 and 2020. If he can keep his body together he'll have opportunities to add to his slam count in both of those years.

In player matchups, confidence is a key thing. Fed not having to play Nadal for a long time on clay, clearly helped him in his chances against Nadal. He acknowledged it too. Quite the opposite had happened during their earlier h2h when Nadal by virtue of losing to others was able to avoid meeting Fed on faster surfaces and thus feeling better going into big matches on Clay and then also on other surfaces.

The AO win especially back from being down further added to it. 

If Fed had met Djokovic during the 2017 or early 2018, when Fed was playing good and with confidence, and Djok was down, this would have resulted in Fed playing much better against Djoko in their meetings in 2018. But that didn't happen. Out-Of form-and-injured Fed again meets the confident DJoko and simply just can't get his game up. At Cincy, Djo didn't even have to play half-as-good and wins in st. sets.

Fed is running out of time to beat Djo, especially in big matches. 

Timing and luck can't be ignored in the outcome of many h2h.

Emancipator wrote:Federer was clearly hampered due to injury for much of 2018. ...

Agree. But he is at an age where if he wants to play his best he is likely to get injured.

He did not seem injured when playing v Djoko at the O2 yet he looked very slow there.

I wish he coudl be lucky and dispute another slam final but I can't quite see it.

However I am pretty sure that on the day, in particular early in tournaments, in can beat anyone. But any glory in this? Tennis is not boxing, to get anywhere you need to beat 4 or 5 guys first.

When I saw the title of this thread a couple of weeks ago (after some time away) I thought it was about this forum rather than Fed.

I have not seen any tennis after the USO but judging by what I have seen of Fed earlier this year, as well as judging by his results this fall, I say he should definitely play at least one more season.

He is still close enough that he has a realistic chance if starts align.  If he has a decent draw and some of the main contenders go out early, he might even become the favorite.

He should only stop when it becomes clear that there are no more slams in him.  We are not there yet.

Another way of looking at it, just for some perspective; he's the number 3 ranked player in the world, having missed approx. a third of the season. Even without his OZ points he gets in the top 10.

He hasn't forgotten how to play - it's all about fitness - if he can maintain it he'll have chances.

Well he moved ok today, not against a top player, but FH, BH was ok, sure lets wait for AO and 5 setters.

https://www.essentiallysports.com/roger-federer-finally-talks-retirement/

summerblues wrote:When I saw the title of this thread a couple of weeks ago (after some time away) I thought it was about this forum rather than Fed.

Ahh... I try my best to keep this OTF going. Interest in tennis will take some hit with Fed's departure ( its not happening very soon though ). Nadal's dominance on Clay even after 13 years and the return of Djokovic's robotic game and the new guard still not mature.... all in the mix are making watching tennis somewhat boring...

And of course nitb not posting enough here.

Everyone relax, I will save the forum. A few posts by me and some Nadal victories will leave Tenez scrambling in his French farm to try and get some wifi so he can launch rebuttal.

raiders_of_the_lost_ark wrote:

summerblues wrote:When I saw the title of this thread a couple of weeks ago (after some time away) I thought it was about this forum rather than Fed.

Ahh... I try my best to keep this OTF going. Interest in tennis will take some hit with Fed's departure ( its not happening very soon though ). Nadal's dominance on Clay even after 13 years and the return of Djokovic's robotic game and the new guard still not mature.... all in the mix are making watching tennis somewhat boring...

And of course nitb not posting enough here.

Hi rotla,

The reason I don’t comment much any more is because people here don’t really watch tennis and also it feels hostile.

Everyone’s got some axe to grind and the friendly spirit is rare.

I am super happy Nole is back playing good tennis, also enjoyed highlights of Tsitsipas Fed, I saw Tsonga shine today and that is great news.

Agut played great tonight.

From results, happy to see Simon back in later rounds of tournaments, and in general I think tennis in a very good place with many older experienced players at their peak/maturing shot selection/execution as well as young talent winning more and more.

I am not too thrilled with the height of new generation as most are very tall and don’t offer much variety and exquisite movement, only raw power, still, tjey are all good to watch. I think Lendl may transform Zverev into a more proactive player because so far he has been a big turn-off.

If we think twice, 2019 should be another year in tennis paradise.

raiders_of_the_lost_ark wrote:

summerblues wrote:When I saw the title of this thread a couple of weeks ago (after some time away) I thought it was about this forum rather than Fed.

Ahh... I try my best to keep this OTF going. Interest in tennis will take some hit with Fed's departure ( its not happening very soon though ). Nadal's dominance on Clay even after 13 years and the return of Djokovic's robotic game and the new guard still not mature.... all in the mix are making watching tennis somewhat boring...

And of course nitb not posting enough here.

It would pain me to see this forum die but with my new life I have not had much time to post and worse play tennis. I still have not joined a club and have never been that unfit.

Above all we need interesting new players. A Zverev domination will be the end for me....but cannot see it.

Happy New Year OTFer's. I hope you all enjoyed the festivities and hope you are all in good health. Had a manic end to the year myself and hence my lack of participation. I did watch the next gens and the matches between them were very interesting. It's when they start playing some of the old guard I feel a sense of Deja Vu. Hoping this time I'll be proven wrong after so many other false dawns. 

2018 wasn't a good end for tennis. Federer citing further niggles (seems to be a running theme for the tour) for his rank performances during the Grass Season. Murray limped out meekly and Nadal now seemingly suffering more. It's disheartening when you literally have to see top players literally with debilitating injuries having to limp off stage. There was a time top players would gradually ease out of the picture with no such a messy showing physically. There was a natural succession and that seems like so long ago something like that was ever seen. 

Djokovic seems to find himself in a sense of Deja Vu. Competition peters off with the top guard falling apart and no-one in the field to really challenge him. Reaches his top form just as the others don't. Can't blame the guy, but 2019 seems to be shaping up as 2016 again. 

Murray. Well it looks to be a tame end to what you could describe as a tame career. Surgeon stated that he is always going to feel pain for the rest of his days. The remains of war torn body. I'd be amazed if he got past Wimbledon without retiring from the game. 

Federer. For the longest time I've said it really feels like we are coming to the end, however he comes out and turns back the clock now and then. I can't see him retaining the AO or winning a Slam this year. I do hope however he has a niggle/knock free year because I do wonder if he has more knocks/niggles whether he feels it's his body telling him his time has come. 

Nadal. Injury hit start to the season. Makes me wonder again like Federer, if he endures a slamless year whether he'll consider retirement. 

Rest of the field. Given up on them. 

British tennis. Jack Draper certainly looking like a good prospect for 17. He has yet to turn pro, however I am hoping he'll get a wildcard for Wimbledon and that might spur the jump to pro. 

My biggest disappointment will be the rights of tennis now with Amazon Prime. Feels like I'll be back in the days of the 80's whereby Wimbledon will be the only time I'll see tennis! I know we live in a new age and online streaming will be the future, but sod that. Given their farcical service during the US Open, I am not keen to look into acquiring Amazon Prime for the tennis.

There aren't many interesting narratives atm.

The only one I can think of is if Nadal or Nole can take over Fed's 20 slams or 300+ weeks at number one.

On paper, Nadal is so close yet so far.
He played some good tennis last year, but skipped half the season with injuries.
It looks unlikely he will play AO as he hasn't played any competitive matches for months. But who knows....
He is never injured for clay season and will definitely be the main favourite in 2019 there.
Not sure about the rest because anyone can take him out in the first week of Wimbledon, there are too many decent players now, so it's getting more difficult to make an easy draw for him there.
And come USO, who knows what may happen, depending on who wins first three slams - there are bound to be injured and tired big three boys.

Federer looks in fine form atm, but that means nothing in terms of title winning.
At least he is competitive and delighting crowds everywhere he goes (and schooling Zverev).
There were some delectable volleys, deadly serving, superb movement to the net (so, so quick!!!)...but how will that translate when he faces Nole the Wall in the best of five is another story.

Nole as per my bold prediction is ready to dominate slams in 2019.
But as we have seen this week, he is also not 25 any more and can get tired and hit off the court.

I can go for ever about all this, as right now I'd do anything but write 16 detailed student reports that are due on Wednesday....

So the farewell tour moves on to Dubai. A reasonable field offers him the chance of #100 but a struggle against Kohli doesn’t bode the best.

Coric looks a pest in perhaps the semi.

bogbrush wrote:So the farewell tour moves on to Dubai. A reasonable field offers him the chance of #100 but a struggle against Kohli doesn’t bode the best.

Coric looks a pest in perhaps the semi.

 It was a long break, so some rustiness in the opening match is not too surprising. Kohli is also a tough opponent.

Coric might not even reach SF. I expect to get to #100 and get this milestone ticked off. Next would be 110.

#100 makes it more likely this is it, including some very retrospective comments after the match.

The 'farewell tour' is going pretty well.  Not only has Fed got to #101 via Dubai #8 and Miami #4 (i.e. not scratching about for 250's) with a w/l of 18-2, his current points tally suggests he's nailed on for yet another WTF appearance barring injury.

Away from the Slams the men's game is opening up a bit - 7 first-time winners in the last 15 Masters compared to 7 first-time winners across the 78 before that.

Even if, as I suspect, Slams prove to be a stretch too far there's plenty of fun to be had on Tour for Fed, and that's what he says he's playing for.

You saw Fed almost win the IW-Miami double, and Rafa & Nole bomb out of MC after having done nothing in the US and you thought:

barrystar wrote:Even if, as I suspect, Slams prove to be a stretch too far there's plenty of fun to be had on Tour for Fed

Yeah, right.

He did say he’d be back to Dubai so maybe I’m wrong.

Nobody would be happier than me if I was.

summerblues wrote:You saw Fed almost win the IW-Miami double, and Rafa & Nole bomb out of MC after having done nothing in the US and you thought:

barrystar wrote:Even if, as I suspect, Slams prove to be a stretch too far there's plenty of fun to be had on Tour for Fed

Yeah, right.

Some times the effort to be caustic is so overwhelming that it conceals such point as the maker is trying to get across.

I don’t think SB was aiming for caustic in fairness. More gentle teasing on the downplaying of Fed’s slam hopes was how I read it!

Barry, my post was meant to be good-humored and light-hearted.  The intent - both in meaning and tone - was exactly as Slippy understood it.

That said, I obviously left too much room for confusion, for which I apologize.