Who Is Going To Win Roland Garros 2016? (The Draw etc)

I am going for Nole.
It's got to happen this year!

I actually feel it's going to be Nadal or Murray. Djoko won't have the luxury to play relax like ha has done the last 2 weeks....and he had some close calls!

I have to wait for the draw but at the moment I think it is anybody's guess between Djokovic, Nadal and Murray.

I really hope it isn't Nadal, but he does have to be second favourite, sadly.  I can't see Murray managing it - but he should come in 3rd favourite.  A very sad indication of the strength at the top at the moment.

Wawrinka has a good chance too - he'll be fighting tooth and nail to keep his points.  Federer - nah, can't see it at all.

That said, it is not a nailed-on certainty that Djokovic will win it. He'll be nervous and he's never won it before.

Murray was at 9.0 to win before Rome s final. That was very good actually. 

Will check what it is now. I bet it is much less.

Tenez wrote:I actually feel it's going to be Nadal or Murray. Djoko won't have the luxury to play relax like ha has done the last 2 weeks....and he had some close calls!

Hahahaha

The only person who can possibly stop Djokovic is Murray, and that's if Djokovic is either a total mental wreck or physically tired from long matches beforehand.

DONALD TRUMP wrote:The only person who can possibly stop Djokovic is Murray, and that's if Djokovic is either a total mental wreck or physically tired from long matches beforehand.

You are as superstitious as an old Sicilien grandma. Your jinx might work.

Amri, are you not a little too old for this stuff?

I pick Djokovic.  I can see him lose and would give him touch less than 50% chance against the field, but on an individual basis I still think he is way ahead of anyone else.

I would say somewhere around 50% chance Nole, 25% Nadal, 15% Murray, 10% rest.

summer blues wrote:I can see him lose and would give him touch less than 50% chance against the field, but on an individual basis I still think he is way ahead of anyone else.

I just don't see how you're getting this less than 50% figure?!

Let's go through it:
Odds on losing:
Before the QF- 2%
QF- Nishikori 3%, Nadal 10%, Berdych 1%, Tsonga 2% (Average= 4%)
SF- Nadal 10%, Nishikori 3%, Stan 5% (Average= 6%)
F- Murray 15%, Nadal 10% (Average 12.5%)
Djokovic Chance of winning: 75.5%

Obviously it's actually a bit more complicated than that, as there are more players and you could factor in weighted average- but I feel this is pretty reliable estimate.
Where do you disagree with me to such an extent that you get 45% and I get 75.5%?? Nadal hasn't won a set against him in all 6 matches since he declined in 2015, Murray has lost last 4 Slam matches and has terrible recent record (apart from Rome where Djokovic went to 3 against Nishi cos he injured his ankle and then didn't have any rest for the final so was exhausted), Nishi doesn't frankly have the consistency (only won a set as Djokovic was injured for a bit), Stan surely can't pull off another miracle, Federer is really struggling, Kyrgios is much better suited to grass... etc etc
I guess we'll have to wait and see, but I think your figure is just way off.

What are the chances of someone from qualifying deaw to win the whole
 thing?

http://www.rolandgarros.com/en_FR/scores/draws/qs/qsdraw.pdf

No one seems to be the front runner on clay this season so I would say it's pretty open
Would like to see Novak win,it would be a disaster if Nadal or Murray wins

DONALD TRUMP wrote:

summer blues wrote:I can see him lose and would give him touch less than 50% chance against the field, but on an individual basis I still think he is way ahead of anyone else.

I just don't see how you're getting this less than 50% figure?!

Let's go through it:
Odds on losing:
Before the QF- 2%
QF- Nishikori 3%, Nadal 10%, Berdych 1%, Tsonga 2% (Average= 4%)
SF- Nadal 10%, Nishikori 3%, Stan 5% (Average= 6%)
F- Murray 15%, Nadal 10% (Average 12.5%)
Djokovic Chance of winning: 75.5%

Obviously it's actually a bit more complicated than that, as there are more players and you could factor in weighted average- but I feel this is pretty reliable estimate.
Where do you disagree with me to such an extent that you get 45% and I get 75.5%?? Nadal hasn't won a set against him in all 6 matches since he declined in 2015, Murray has lost last 4 Slam matches and has terrible recent record (apart from Rome where Djokovic went to 3 against Nishi cos he injured his ankle and then didn't have any rest for the final so was exhausted), Nishi doesn't frankly have the consistency (only won a set as Djokovic was injured for a bit), Stan surely can't pull off another miracle, Federer is really struggling, Kyrgios is much better suited to grass... etc etc
I guess we'll have to wait and see, but I think your figure is just way off.

You don't actually believe that you can reduce this debate to these nonsensical and ridiculous percentages, do you? "3%" - come on - it looks so stupid. It doesn't match how reality works at all.

Djoko is the huge favorite. Then Nadal then Murray. I think Nadal is in a very good position as Nole will have the stress of holding the 4.

The FO website is such a mess nowadays. We used to have the draw at 10am live on Friday before the event. Now, there is not even a link to tell us when it is.

Information is spread all over in this new HTML 2.0 format!

I'm in Belgrade buzzing around

I was told the draw is at 11.30 CET.

The big question is whose half Nadal is going to fall into.

My draw-rigging brain  predicts - Murray's.

All in all: idemo Nole Majstoreee!

Yes most likely Murray.

I was in Milan Weds and Thrusday. It was good to renew with the "South".

Tenez wrote:Yes most likely Murray.

I was in Milan Weds and Thrusday. It was good to renew with the "South".

Absolutely!

I just saw Nole drew Nadal in his half....there goes my prediction...

Nole's half looks easier than Murray's.

If he beats Nadal in the semis, he'll win the whole thing.

This is Thiem's chance to show that he isn't just another Dimitrov. If he meets Nadal in his quarter he should be confident of pulling it off, if only he doesn't enter the doubles to wear himself out.

I don't believe Fog is gonna repeat what he did in USO sadly

I have just read that should Nole meet Nadal in the 
SF, it will be Nadal's birthday.
I am pretty sure it was his birthday when they played last year's QF, hehe.

AceofDeath wrote:This is Thiem's chance to show that he isn't just another Dimitrov. If he meets Nadal in his quarter he should be confident of pulling it off, if only he doesn't enter the doubles to wear himself out.

I don't believe Fog is gonna repeat what he did in USO sadly

Nadal is too good a mover for Thiem, though Thiem is not without a chance, esp if they play on Langlen.

I'd say Thiem has 0 chance....especially in Bo5! It's a different sport. Nadal hardly needs a racquet to beat those guys on clay.

Here is a question:

Who can beat Nadal in the best of 5 atm (apart from Nole)?

Nole has never done it either actually.

Nadal last year was not his real him. However despite not having beaten the real Nadal he certainly can do it.

Tenez wrote:Nole has never done it either actually.

Nadal last year was not his real him. However despite not having beaten the real Nadal he certainly can do it.

Hehe....
Ok, can we declare Nadal as "real" now?

If so, who else apart from Nole can do it?

Actually, that's another interesting question:

Is Nadal "real" (now)?
Was he real last year and why yes/no?

ps

the questions: they are making me laugh.
I am imagining Nadal holding a mirror in his hand asking himself: Am I real? (he would, of course, pronounce "real" as in "Real Madrid")

I can also already see Donald itching to tell us Nadal is so old and declined he is real only when ( he was) winning - like a true post-realist.

I admit, I find this unreal Nadal really funny.

I only meant that he was not playing at his best in 2015. Why and how I am not sure and don't really care.

Murray could cause though he is not as fit, he can also tire Nadal. Nadal does tire (mentally and physically).

And an inspired Stan.

Can we then say that Nadal is real only when he plays with confidence?

I think that was the only thing missing last year as he was changing his court position.

Tomorrow's draw looks pretty boring.
Not a single match of interest.

Frankly tennis is not going to be that exciting from now on. Just hoping to have the 3 road runners lose... So not much hope in fact.

Tenez wrote:Frankly tennis is not going to be that exciting from now on. Just hoping to have the 3 road runners lose... So not much hope in fact.

I go through phases when I think tennis is doomed and unwatchable and then I see Fabio blossom in his "southness" and all is forgotten.

Right now, I want to see Nole win RG, so for me, this is a very exciting tournament.

ps

The whole Serbia is breathing with Nole this time.

I had people you'd never think cared about tennis tell me how he got Nadal in SF, it was even on the flash radio news in a cafe before I had the time to see it on www.

How strange to hear the cold official news reading voice usually delivering words of wars and political horror say:  "In Paris today, draw was held for Roland Garros and Novak Djokovic has Nadal in the semi-final"...

This is still a land of big dreams....  

Can anyone do the prediction came today? I'm away until fhis evening but can do it from tmo onwards.

luvsports! wrote:Can anyone do the prediction came today? I'm away until fhis evening but can do it from tmo onwards.

HI LS - I am too busy to a do a daily prediction day and count it.....but I am going to do a tournament prediction game.

luvsports! wrote:Can anyone do the prediction came today? I'm away until fhis evening but can do it from tmo onwards.

Sorry LS, busy, too, just got off the plain.

Get your mates to join and do the thrrad, why not!

My mates are keen for the old game, but this one is vaaast!

The good thing about this one is that you play only once every other day....and as it advances it becomes like teh old one.