Federer's 2006 domination revisited

summerblues wrote:

noleisthebest wrote:You are wrong beause you keep ignoring the opposition.
Nole was simply outplayed by Nishi.

Just like Monf outplayed Fed in the first two sets the other day.

I am not ignoring the opposition, but I am also not bestowing it with virtues it does not possess.

Of course Nole was outplayed by Nishi, but it takes two to tango.  Are you saying that this was Nole at his best being outplayed by an even better opponent?  If so, you need to find a convincing reason for it, not just state it as a fact.

Agree, Nishi was playing very well, but that does not mean I cannot also see that - even taking that into account - Nole could have played better, and in many matches past, played better?

Nole just admitting he did not play well.....but 2 years ago...this level woudl have been enough to beat Nishi and Cilic....Today it's not good enough. More so by the fact that Nishi and others can now sustain the tough rallies under the heat and the very long matches .....It's not only Nadal, Muray and Djoko who can but Nishi, Cilic and many others soon.

I know Nole. He wanted this win and waited for Nishi to drop his level, but it didn't happen. Nishi got to him with his quick play, that's the most efficient way to beat him and so far only Fed and Nishi have been able to do it.
I noticed Nole's BH was stiff against Murray (the last set and a half I saw) and it was not good today either.
His BH reflects his form quite well.

I doubt he was injured. Maybe a combination of heavy legs from the match with Murray and Nishi's good play.

Tenez wrote:Nole just admitting he did not play well.....but 2 years ago...this level woudl have been enough to beat Nishi and Cilic....

Yes, I can buy that.  The guys behind do keep improving, but the guys on top also eventually age and start declining.  So the question is the interplay of the two - do the other guys improve fast enough that Nole - at 33 - even if he keeps improving will be overhauled?

I say no, you say yes.

summerblues wrote:

Tenez wrote:Nole just admitting he did not play well.....but 2 years ago...this level woudl have been enough to beat Nishi and Cilic....

Yes, I can buy that.  The guys behind do keep improving, but the guys on top also eventually age and start declining.  So the question is the interplay of the two - do the other guys improve fast enough that Nole - at 33 - even if he keeps improving will be overhauled?

I say no, you say yes.

The thing is at 33 they will completely be outplayed by the new players...that;s what makes federer so different than the rest: He entirely outplayed his generation and was able to compete with the new generation which had the huge advantage of having learn play with new strings.

And don't you agree that Nole and Murray never played as well as in that USO? I do! Look at their game in the 2012 USO final...terrible! So at 27 Djoko and Murray have improved from previous years...even if Djoko can have a bad match there and then.

2006:

Didn't end up 2 sets down twice in a row.

Tenez wrote:And don't  you agree that Nole and Murray never played as well as in that USO? I do! Look at their game in the 2012 USO final...terrible! So at 27 Djoko and Murray have improved from previous years...even if Djoko can have a bad match there and then.

No, I do not agree they "never played as well as in the USO".  They had some better and some worse matches over the years.  The first two sets were very good, but the rest not nearly so much from Murray.

Plus, I certainly do not suggest that at 27 they are past their peak - it is certainly possible to play your very best tennis at 27.

summerblues wrote:Tenez, you were earlier looking at the average age of semifinalists in Toronto and Cincy.  I did the same for this year's slams:

AO - 29y4m (Fed, Stan, Berd, Rafa)
RG - 27y (Rafa, Andy, Nole, Gulbis)
W - 26y8m (Fed, Nole, Rao, Dimi )
USO - 27y9m (Fed, Nole, Nishi, Cilic)

overall - 27y8m

This is very much in line with the average age of the current top 10, or top 20.  Which suggests that while the peak age has gone up from the more traditional 24-25 years, it is not anywhere near 33 years.  In fact, Fed is the only 30+ year player in this year's slam SFs.  All of the other ones were under 29.

...and the average age of our two finalists is 25y4m.  If they are really starting a trend of younger guys breaking through, the average age might actually go down instead of up in the next couple of years (down relative to 27-28, not relative to 25).

summerblues wrote:

Tenez wrote:And don't  you agree that Nole and Murray never played as well as in that USO? I do! Look at their game in the 2012 USO final...terrible! So at 27 Djoko and Murray have improved from previous years...even if Djoko can have a bad match there and then.

No, I do not agree they "never played as well as in the USO".  They had some better and some worse matches over the years.  The first two sets were very good, but the rest not nearly so much from Murray.

Well ups and down within a match has always been a trademark of Djoko and Murray. Name better matches (were both had to deal with a player showing a similar level)?

Plus, I certainly do not suggest that at 27 they are past their peak - it is certainly possible to play your very best tennis at 27.

So?

The point is very clear to me that once again the next generation does not wait for players to decline to shine. They never did and never will. Nishi and CIlic showed that very clearly yersterday. Cilic more so in fact cause I think he had the game to beat anybody yesterday. He played with a pacier FH, BH and serve than when Murray was troubling Djoko earlier in the tournament. It's this kind of players (including Nishi) who are going to beat the level or retrieving Djoko and Nadal have brought to the club. Like it was that same level of retrieving that finally got the better of Federer (or at least stopped Fed's domination in its track). The game evolve and as I said, it evolves as quickly as new player step in. And this is helped very clearly by the fact that they train young against the very best and have therefore a higher base to jump higher.

Nishi and Cilic are far from their peak but they are already f the same level as the current best.

Can't help thinking about the several times you were making fun of me after another bad result of Cilic, T.  (just kidding)

Back in 2009 he already played like this, but only in patches. He always switched from being a cannon to a loose cannon. But here in NY skipped the loose part. To me he's not a suspect (in terms of dope abuse). It's not like he's now stronger or more powerful, it's that whipping forehand (generally to be considered as his weak wing!), he has it under control now. And of course the placing of his serve.
I'm not sure though he'll have it consistantly under control from now on.

Cilic 2009: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EpqYdqr9mQk

summerblues wrote:

summerblues wrote:Tenez, you were earlier looking at the average age of semifinalists in Toronto and Cincy.  I did the same for this year's slams:

AO - 29y4m (Fed, Stan, Berd, Rafa)
RG - 27y (Rafa, Andy, Nole, Gulbis)
W - 26y8m (Fed, Nole, Rao, Dimi )
USO - 27y9m (Fed, Nole, Nishi, Cilic)

overall - 27y8m

This is very much in line with the average age of the current top 10, or top 20.  Which suggests that while the peak age has gone up from the more traditional 24-25 years, it is not anywhere near 33 years.  In fact, Fed is the only 30+ year player in this year's slam SFs.  All of the other ones were under 29.

...and the average age of our two finalists is 25y4m.  If they are really starting a trend of younger guys breaking through, the average age might actually go down instead of up in the next couple of years (down relative to 27-28, not relative to 25).

Sure, 24/25 is the new 18/20. In the past when tennis was not that physical, 18 and 19 players could beat the peak mature greats of the past :Wilander, Becker, Edberg, Sampras, etc would arrive early and beat the Lendl, Vilas, McEnroe before those guys declined. That's exactly what I have been saying all along. Watch Wilander cut through the field of champions in his first FO. And it did not do that with brio...but pure moonballing...exposing a big hole in the then current "greats".

It validates my point that domination and peak age are completely different. Thiem and Kryos will get the better of Nishi and Cilic baseline game, especially if they train young against them. (well if it's not Thiem and Kryos it will be others..).

gallery play wrote:Can't help thinking about the several times you were making fun of me after another bad result of Cilic, T.  (just kidding)

Back in 2009 he already played like this, but only in patches. He always switched from being a cannon to a loose cannon. But here in NY skipped the loose part. To me he's not a suspect (in terms of dope abuse). It's not like he's now stronger or more powerful, it's that whipping forehand (generally to be considered as his weak wing!), he has it under control now. And of course the placing of his serve.
I'm not sure though he'll have it consistantly under control from now on.

Cilic 2009: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EpqYdqr9mQk

Yep....good one on Cilic. I honestly thought he had potential too but I foun him a bit oneD (which I still think he is) and had doubts about his mental. I however think that it's once again all about drugs (like all other players on tour bar maybe Federer). And that is where muscles and stamina make a huge difference. Muscles make the racquet sweet spot bigger and help them be on the ball quicker ....and that makes a huge difference in confidence and therefore mental strength. Sure he had teh shots in the past, but certainly more erratic and not as consistent...and coudl not keep up that fine edge after a few long rallies.

His consistency will never be like Nadala and Djoko cause he has thinner margins but he won't have to be cause he has other weapons. Let's see how his nerves hold in that final. IMO he has the row power to blast past Nishi.

Tenez wrote:I however think that it's once again all about drugs

Sorry to hear that. In Cilic case that's to me not so obvious.  I see him deliver now what he always had in him.

Beforehand i didn't expect him to reach the final though (but who did?). He actually had a tough draw!

And the good part is: he's potentially the perfect Nadal slayer

gallery play wrote:

Tenez wrote:I however think that it's once again all about drugs

Sorry to hear that. In Cilic case that's to me not so obvious.  I see him deliver now what he always had in him.

Beforehand i didn't expect him to reach the final though (but who did?). He actually had a tough draw!

And the good part is: he's potentially the perfect Nadal slayer

I certainly don't blame him for taking drugs. It is simply not a choice nowadays. But it is obvious to me. He would have been another great player who coudl have taken anybody on the day (like he beat Nadal in the past) like a Gulbis, Gasquet but those days would have been rare...and unlikely to show over 3 straight sets.

Look, he was tested positive (and they only test them once or twice a year) and he clearly bulked up. Difficult to argue against. But as you say it's another player who is going to stop Nadal and Djoko so I am happy.

Just saw that Cilic pushed Djoko to a 5 setter at Wimbledon a few weeks ago so...clearly he has been knocking at the door.

I saw him beat Chardy live this Wimbledon. Simple, no frills tennis people won't be paying to watch (just to dispel any confusion, I went to cheer for Chardy).
The muscles have given Cilic safe power and results but taken away the interesting elegance he once had.
That's the development that is going to kill tennis and its popularity. Everyone is blending into the hard hitting percentage machine.
Just like people didn't like watching servefests, same will happen with this soulless, safe muscly bashing from Cilic, Anderson, Raonic etc.
They have the height so use the power in their shots, smaller players use it with their legs. To me that's the same.

That's why I hope Nishi wins tomorrow and saves tennis

So here we are once again, another player putting the bar higher than ever. Who is Cilic? Just another youngster with some talent, though not exceptional talent, able to blast anybody on his way. he might not get consistent results in the future but like Safin versus Pete in 2000, he is able to bring tennis to another level thanks to simple but very powerful shots and serve supported by an exceptional mouvement for a tall guy.

What does that tell us? That once again, one doesn;t need to decline to be overtaken by the new generation. If fact if according to some, "greats" were to be beaten only when they decline, the level of tennis would have gone from bad to worse since the musketeers. Only idiots might think the level of the game, or its competitiveness rather, is going down.

What was Cilic's luck? simply being at the right age when the greats were ruling the game. His training was simply harder than rafa and Djoko's at the same age...while rafa and Djoko were training young versus guys like Massu, ferrero, Schuttler and Gaudio (all top 10 players), Cilic trained hard young versus nadal, Djoko, Delpo.....the platform to get to the higher level was itself much higher.

What was impressing was that Cilic had simply enough power to break federer game very convincingly yesterday. Federer never struggled tactically but always struggled versus a hard powerful ball (hard, spiny or both). Before fed could block a fast ball back and force an error (v Delpo, Soderling, Berdych, etc..) but yesterday, quite a few of those blocked shots were followed by a more deadly shot. Federer had no answer. I am pretty sure had he been at his best, he coudl have beaten him or at least make things much closer...but to me that was one of the most telling defeat by Federer. One of the very rare time where you realise his best game might have no answer.

Cilic if he keeps that level (but he is going to improve) will simply become the Djoko and Nadal assassin. he has the perfect game to beat those guys regularly, a bit like Delpo was showing before injury but with a much better serve than Delpo and more mobility.

But hey I don;t expect him to reign for long...the game is evolving fast...a new generation who is training very hard against those top guys will find the key soon to Cilic.

That makes federer longivity absolutely exceptional, especially considering he trained with a very different technology (racquet and strings) against very different players (Svers mostly) and never embraced the amazing fitness and muscles those new players have.

That's his legacy...and no-one can get close to him in that respect.

You seem to be able to take any trend or result to back up your own theory... but look at the age of Cilic.  He is only confirming what some of us have been saying for weeks.  Age is the reason.  He's now in his prime physically and playing his best ever tennis.  Meanwhile Federer is way past it, Murray, Nadal and Djok are heading for the major drop off.

Cilic is nowhere near as good as Djok or Fed or Nadal at their best... he just isn't even close.

Well put, T.

As Cilic said after his match last night:

"For all those other players who are working hard, this is a big sign and big hope that if you are working hard things are going to pay off."

Will be interesting to see the next phase.
All being equal, it will have to be the hands, not only the legs to deal with Cilic provided he maintains his game.
Cilic's serve and weapons are compact and less prone to break-down now.
He just qualified for the WTF.

I am not that excited by the next phase....hopefully by a next genius soon. Whatever hs style, a genius is great to watch...if really a genius.

I don't even have the energy to think about it...
I think Fed was tired in that SF, plus the wind didn't help either. 
Both fresh Fed and Nole can handle "new" Cilic, but only just.

So I look forward to the rest of indoor season.

Cilic played like he was in a trance last night. At times I thought Nishi was giving up the fight, but he wasn't.

Definitely a very interesting year.

I thought Cilic played badly yesterday and the conds looked slower as well. Not sure why.

Versus Fed he played like he had nothing to lose, versus Nishi like he had everything to lose.