Aus Open Day 8

legendkillar wrote:Chung needs some pop on that first serve. Motion reminds me of Roddick. If only it had the same potency.

Leg action: yes, but the racquet head is too far away from him during the toss. That's where Rod got his power from, making it compact

barrystar wrote:Well, anyone who thinks that Chung can be taken lightly or for granted is a fool.  

That said, and very much on paper at least, the draw has fallen open better for Federer than it has for Nadal in two ways: more higher ranked players have fallen by the way side in Fed's half than Nadal's so far, which has gone largely as seeded, and Nadal therefore faces the higher prospective ranked opponents between him and the final than Federer does.

But does the ranking matter when you see a performance like that from a ranked #55?!?

yes, cilic - dimitrov seems harder than berdych - chung

and also federer seems in better form than nadal (each on his style)

barrystar wrote:Well, anyone who thinks that Chung can be taken lightly or for granted is a fool.  

That said, and very much on paper at least, the draw has fallen open better for Federer than it has for Nadal in two ways: more higher ranked players have fallen by the way side in Fed's half than Nadal's so far, which has gone largely as seeded, and Nadal therefore faces the higher prospective ranked opponents between him and the final than Federer does.

Yes, very much on paper that is...

gallery play wrote:

legendkillar wrote:Chung needs some pop on that first serve. Motion reminds me of Roddick. If only it had the same potency.

Leg action: yes, but the racquet head is too far away from him during the toss. That's where Rod got his power from, making it compact

Indeed his racquet is far too behind him. Hopefully in time he straightens the swing and pushes off much better.

In a sense I'm sorry for Djoko, wanted Fed to crush him in 3 sets and kill his love spreading and huggs, but this good too.

Tenez wrote:

barrystar wrote:Well, anyone who thinks that Chung can be taken lightly or for granted is a fool.  

That said, and very much on paper at least, the draw has fallen open better for Federer than it has for Nadal in two ways: more higher ranked players have fallen by the way side in Fed's half than Nadal's so far, which has gone largely as seeded, and Nadal therefore faces the higher prospective ranked opponents between him and the final than Federer does.

But does the ranking matter when you see a performance like that from a ranked #55?!?

I agree; pure ranking does not really count towards the end of a tournament like this, hence my qualification.  I think that what counts is form (obviously) and basic resilience, so I am more interested by a guy with some big wins vs. top players behind him than a guy who has achieved a high ranking by virtue of shear point accumulation.  

I think that if you look at the prospective routes to a final for each of Federer & Nadal, the latter's still looks a bit tougher.  Like all Federer fans, I know how quickly everything can head south with his back, and whilst he seems to have Berdych's number it's never easy and he always needs to pull a great performance out of the bag.  No comment on the SF - leave the chickens uncounted I say.

barrystar wrote:...
I think that if you look at the prospective routes to a final for each of Federer & Nadal, the latter's still looks a bit tougher. 

I dunno. Cilic was not impressive this whole tournament against much lower players. Berdych has dismissed everybody with ease, including Delpo and Fognini.

Regarding Dimi...I can't take him seriously. The day he can serve his sets out I will but so far he keeps failing and versus Nadal he will fail even more so.

We know berdych is a choker but can really hurt too and Chung as we just saw is not one to get intimidated. And that's what matters at this stage.

Tenez wrote:

bogbrush wrote:

Tenez wrote:i m going to tell you if Djoko will win this tournament or not after or during the Chung match.

he has been quite impressive in his last match.

Are you ready to pronounce yet? The World awaits.

I still think he has a chance.

Any word yet?

Tenez wrote:

barrystar wrote:...
I think that if you look at the prospective routes to a final for each of Federer & Nadal, the latter's still looks a bit tougher. 

I dunno. Cilic was not impressive this whole tournament against much lower players. Berdych has dismissed everybody with ease, including Delpo and Fognini.

Regarding Dimi...I can't take him seriously. The day he can serve his sets out I will but so far he keeps failing and versus Nadal he will fail even more so.

We know berdych is a choker but can really hurt too and Chung as we just saw is not one to get intimidated. And that's what matters at this stage.

Come on, this has slid towards favouring Federer. Be honest.

bogbrush wrote:

Tenez wrote:

bogbrush wrote:

Tenez wrote:i m going to tell you if Djoko will win this tournament or not after or during the Chung match.

he has been quite impressive in his last match.

Are you ready to pronounce yet? The World awaits.

I still think he has a chance.

Any word yet?

I had cover my back. I predicted Chung woudl be a force to be reckoned with more than 2 years ago....when nobody knew him!

bogbrush wrote:

Tenez wrote:

barrystar wrote:...
I think that if you look at the prospective routes to a final for each of Federer & Nadal, the latter's still looks a bit tougher. 

I dunno. Cilic was not impressive this whole tournament against much lower players. Berdych has dismissed everybody with ease, including Delpo and Fognini.

Regarding Dimi...I can't take him seriously. The day he can serve his sets out I will but so far he keeps failing and versus Nadal he will fail even more so.

We know berdych is a choker but can really hurt too and Chung as we just saw is not one to get intimidated. And that's what matters at this stage.

Come on, this has slid towards favouring Federer. Be honest.

What are your arguments? Mines are spelled out.

Funny thing is I can still see Chung losing to anyone. That’s how it is at this stage of a career.

And that serve is a big liability.

Very nice polite lad though. The way he asked if it was ok to speak in Korean to his homeland, versus Kyrgios.

bogbrush wrote:Funny thing is I can still see Chung losing to anyone. That’s how it is at this stage of a career.

And that serve is a big liability.

Very nice polite lad though. The way he asked if it was ok to speak in Korean to his homeland, versus Kyrgios.

Of course he can lose....but not to anyone. he has shown too much nerves under serious circumstances. Dimi and Cilic can lose to anybody too as again this tournament showed against nobodies.

Haven’t seen the match, will read the comments later.

Glad Chung has made the brrakthrough, but also that Nole seems to be hungry again.

Fed should get the extra spring in his step now.

I read them Tenez. I think it’s gone from 90/10 in Nadal favour to 50/50 because the points you make are all “yes but” ones, and there’s no reason why Dimi won’t improve on last years performance, which was almost good enough. Cilic is a very wild card but on his day he can trouble everyone.

I also think (hope) Berdy won’t be so much at home on fast Rod Laver as he was today. Berdy loves the slower surface. Chung, well impressive but his serve is attackable and we didn’t see him rushed. Federer would do that.

Tenez wrote:

bogbrush wrote:Funny thing is I can still see Chung losing to anyone. That’s how it is at this stage of a career.

And that serve is a big liability.

Very nice polite lad though. The way he asked if it was ok to speak in Korean to his homeland, versus Kyrgios.

Of course he can lose....but not to anyone. he has shown too much nerves under serious circumstances. Dimi and Cilic can lose to anybody too as again this tournament showed against nobodies.

There’s a major glitch in the ranking system then. I’ll get onto the ATP and put them on to you.

Gone to 50:50???

bogbrush wrote:I read them Tenez. I think it’s gone from 90/10 in Nadal favour to 50/50 because the points you make are all “yes but” ones, and there’s no reason why Dimi won’t improve on last years performance, which was almost good enough. Cilic is a very wild card but on his day he can trouble everyone.

I also think (hope) Berdy won’t be so much at home on fast Rod Laver as he was today. Berdy loves the slower surface. Chung, well impressive but his serve is attackable and we didn’t see him rushed. Federer would do that.

Well you have as many "buts" if not more. It is not a question of Dimi improving from last year, it is a question of dimi having the guts to cross the lines and frankly if I had to put money it would be on Chung beating nadal more than Dimi. Chung has the perfect game to bother Nadal, I believe he even had SP on clay last year, certainly was a break up. The way he has lined up long rallies today would be a nightmare for Nadal, especially as he can pull the trigger and hurt when needed. Dimi is going to look good but fail....again.

Cilic...unless nadal is in really bad shape, won;t even take a set!

So Tenez, is Nadal’s run in to the final from now equal to or harder than Federer’s according to you?

bogbrush wrote:

Tenez wrote:

bogbrush wrote:Funny thing is I can still see Chung losing to anyone. That’s how it is at this stage of a career.

And that serve is a big liability.

Very nice polite lad though. The way he asked if it was ok to speak in Korean to his homeland, versus Kyrgios.

Of course he can lose....but not to anyone. he has shown too much nerves under serious circumstances. Dimi and Cilic can lose to anybody too as again this tournament showed against nobodies.

There’s a major glitch in the ranking system then. I’ll get onto the ATP and put them on to you.

Of course there is a glitch as it takes in form players from the last 12 months. A lot of things change over a year. Ask Djokovic, Murray, Stan, Nishi and many more!

DECIMA wrote:Gone to 50:50???

Yeah, Nadal draw was a cakewalk on the face of it. 

You & Tenez should get a room, you have a lot more in common than either of you would care to admit 

DECIMA wrote:So Tenez, is Nadal’s run in to the final from now equal to or harder than Federer’s according to you?

It is by far easier in my view. When was the last time Dimi and Cilic hurt an average fit Nadal? C'mon....

Bogbrush, do you think the run in from now to the final is 50:50?
Not talking about the initial potentials at outset of tournaments, I mean how it’s turned out (btw Djokovic was always a question mark)

Tenez wrote:

DECIMA wrote:So Tenez, is Nadal’s run in to the final from now equal to or harder than Federer’s according to you?

It is by far easier in my view. When was the last time Dimi and Cilic hurt an average fit Nadal? C'mon....

Right so:

Cilic followed by Dimitrov is FAR EASIER than Berdych followed by Chung.

Tenez wrote:

bogbrush wrote:

Tenez wrote:

bogbrush wrote:Funny thing is I can still see Chung losing to anyone. That’s how it is at this stage of a career.

And that serve is a big liability.

Very nice polite lad though. The way he asked if it was ok to speak in Korean to his homeland, versus Kyrgios.

Of course he can lose....but not to anyone. he has shown too much nerves under serious circumstances. Dimi and Cilic can lose to anybody too as again this tournament showed against nobodies.

There’s a major glitch in the ranking system then. I’ll get onto the ATP and put them on to you.

Of course there is a glitch as it takes in form players from the last 12 months. A lot of things change over a year. Ask Djokovic, Murray, Stan, Nishi and many more!

It was just that you said he couldn’t lose to just anyone, yet the ATP systems stupidly thinks he does.
It’s ridiculous, their website says he lost to David Ferrer 3&2 only 14 days ago!! These guys are clowns, they don’t know anything about the sport!

DECIMA wrote:Bogbrush, do you think the run in from now to the final is 50:50?
Not talking about the initial potentials at outset of tournaments, I mean how it’s turned out (btw Djokovic was always a question mark)

Yes.

bogbrush wrote:

DECIMA wrote:Bogbrush, do you think the run in from now to the final is 50:50?
Not talking about the initial potentials at outset of tournaments, I mean how it’s turned out (btw Djokovic was always a question mark)

Yes.

BERDYCH & CHUNG = CILIC AND DIMITROV

And you would be saying that if Nadal has the initial two?

Regarding Fed v Berdych, I think a fit Fed would beat him convincingly...but no more than he has beaten Cilic or Dimi. The only time Cilic beat him was when he was well under par in that US...even in that Wimby 16, when fed could not move, Cilic managed to choke....without mentioning W17 final!

Chung is the new guy on the block. Nadal does not attack serves. he is just happy to put the ball in court which means Chung only weakness won't be exploited. Then from back of the court, I am sure Chung can do better than Schwartzy who was quite close himself, had had a bit of nerves.

bogbrush wrote:

Tenez wrote:

bogbrush wrote:

Tenez wrote:

bogbrush wrote:Funny thing is I can still see Chung losing to anyone. That’s how it is at this stage of a career.

And that serve is a big liability.

Very nice polite lad though. The way he asked if it was ok to speak in Korean to his homeland, versus Kyrgios.

Of course he can lose....but not to anyone. he has shown too much nerves under serious circumstances. Dimi and Cilic can lose to anybody too as again this tournament showed against nobodies.

There’s a major glitch in the ranking system then. I’ll get onto the ATP and put them on to you.

Of course there is a glitch as it takes in form players from the last 12 months. A lot of things change over a year. Ask Djokovic, Murray, Stan, Nishi and many more!

It was just that you said he couldn’t lose to just anyone, yet the ATP systems stupidly thinks he does.
It’s ridiculous, their website says he lost to David Ferrer 3&2 only 14 days ago!! These guys are clowns, they don’t know anything about the sport!

Is that your argument? Being beaten by ferrer in a 250 tournament before a slam? Please feel free to replace me in that room with Decima!

I was being kind. Could have thrown in Gasket, Isner, Dzumbar, Lopez, Manninaro in the last six months.

Get back to your room, Amirit is lonely. 

DECIMA wrote:

bogbrush wrote:

DECIMA wrote:Bogbrush, do you think the run in from now to the final is 50:50?
Not talking about the initial potentials at outset of tournaments, I mean how it’s turned out (btw Djokovic was always a question mark)

Yes.

BERDYCH & CHUNG = CILIC AND DIMITROV

And you would be saying that if Nadal has the initial two?

Yeah, that’s what the equals signs mean

I was reading the match thread and laughing at Tenez overhyping Chung, Bogbrush said was was obvious- his serve will get taken apart by top players.

Dimi losing 10 times in succession v Nadal and was only beaten once cause of what seemed for once a serious knee problem (did not even try qualify to WTF semis)...and you call this a challenge for Nadal...over best of 5? C'mom you cannot be serious!Regarding Cilic, the last time he beat nadal was nearly 10 years ago when Nadal could not win a set versus top 10 players. remember that?

On the other side we know berdych has by far a better record v Fed, and was even very close to beat him again in IW/or Miami last year.

And Chung is simply a better version Djoko, or certainly will be very soon...and we know the H2H record of Djoko v Nadal and Federer.

That's my arguments!

bogbrush wrote:

DECIMA wrote:

bogbrush wrote:

DECIMA wrote:Bogbrush, do you think the run in from now to the final is 50:50?
Not talking about the initial potentials at outset of tournaments, I mean how it’s turned out (btw Djokovic was always a question mark)

Yes.

BERDYCH & CHUNG = CILIC AND DIMITROV

And you would be saying that if Nadal has the initial two?

Yeah, that’s what the equals signs mean

Cool, glad we have that all clarified now.

DECIMA wrote:I was reading the match thread and laughing at Tenez overhyping Chung, Bogbrush said was was obvious- his serve will get taken apart by top players.

Ask Djoko whether he is laughing now!

Also explain how nadal attacks serves? By standing in the stands?

Tenez wrote:

DECIMA wrote:I was reading the match thread and laughing at Tenez overhyping Chung, Bogbrush said was was obvious- his serve will get taken apart by top players.

Ask Djoko whether he is laughing now!

Also explain how nadal attacks serves? By standing in the stands?

No free points vs Nadal makes beating him a nearly impossible task. It’s big servers who trouble Nadal the most.
Nadal does not need to necessarily attack the serve to win a high percentage of points on return.

Tenez wrote:

bogbrush wrote:

Tenez wrote:

bogbrush wrote:Funny thing is I can still see Chung losing to anyone. That’s how it is at this stage of a career.

And that serve is a big liability.

Very nice polite lad though. The way he asked if it was ok to speak in Korean to his homeland, versus Kyrgios.

Of course he can lose....but not to anyone. he has shown too much nerves under serious circumstances. Dimi and Cilic can lose to anybody too as again this tournament showed against nobodies.

There’s a major glitch in the ranking system then. I’ll get onto the ATP and put them on to you.

Of course there is a glitch as it takes in form players from the last 12 months. A lot of things change over a year. Ask Djokovic, Murray, Stan, Nishi and many more!

I assume that the result of this 'glitch' is that Dimitrov and Cilic are ranked higher than they otherwise would be (almost certainly Berdych too).  One thing the 'glitch' has not done is affect Chung's ranking at #55 based on 29-18 in 2017, with no wins vs. top 10 in his career until Zverev.  It maybe that Chung has 'flicked the switch' and is about to make a sharp upwards move through the rankings as a result - that happens and players on such a curve are consistently better than their rankings, but that is nothing to do with any ranking glitches.

Cilic vs Berdych:
Cilic has won USO in 2014, beat Fed in straights to win that. Took Fed to 5 sets in Wimbledon 2016.
By contrast this is a list of matches against top players Berdych has won in recent years:

Dimitrov vs Chung:
Dimitrov is in form of his life, convincingly won World Tour Finals 2 months ago. Took Nadal to 5 sets in AO last year.
Chung has nothing to show in his career apart from a victory over an out of sorts injured rusty Djokovic. Serve will get mauled by world class players.

QF: It's pretty obvious when you look at their records that for Fedal there's not a whole load of difference between facing Cilic or Berdych - they expect to win unless they are in a bad patch for form or fitness or the other is, for some reason, on fire.  Probably only the Cilic win vs. Federer in 2014 can be fully explained by Cilic grabbing the initiative himself - but he's not done much like that since.  I'd say Cilic's heights are higher, but he is more inconsistent than Berdych, whose form over the last two rounds has been good - 50/50 is fair

SF: Dimitrov on H/C probably more tricky for Nadal than for Federer, he has regularly taken sets off Nadal, but the H2H is still overwhelming.  Others are largely unknown quantities but barring a shock should be inferior to either of Fedal - Fed's position looks marginally the stronger on that basis, but not hugely so because despite Dimitrov's ranking and tendency to push Nadal, both Dimitrov and Nadal know that when push comes to shove either Nadal has found a way through or Dimitrov has faded at key moments - that's a tough 'default' position to reverse.


Nadal
vs. Cilic 5-1
vs. Berdych 19-4

vs. Dimitrov 10-1
vs. Edmund 1-0
vs. Chung 2-0
vs. Sandgren 0-0

Federer
vs. Cilic 8-1
vs. Berdych 19-6

vs. Dimitrov 6-0
vs. Edmund 0-0
vs. Chung 0-0
vs. Sandgren 0-0

When posterity looks back on seedings, and if they both make it to the final, it could look v. much in Federer's favour - certainly if Nadal had such a route to the final it would be described as a 'cakewalk'.  We'll see, as ever....

vs. #28, #24, #6, #3
vs. #29, uns'd, #19, uns'd

If the draw was the other way around, and I was comparing Dimitrov who has just won WTF to Chung (much easier), can you imagine the reaction?

DECIMA wrote:Cilic vs Berdych:
Cilic has won USO in 2014, beat Fed in straights to win that. Took Fed to 5 sets in Wimbledon 2016.
By contrast this is a list of matches against top players Berdych has won in recent years:

Dimitrov vs Chung:
Dimitrov is in form of his life, convincingly won World Tour Finals 2 months ago. Took Nadal to 5 sets in AO last year.
Chung has nothing to show in his career apart from a victory over an out of sorts injured rusty Djokovic. Serve will get mauled by world class players.

You didn't see the match today, i can tell.

First of all: Djoko is probably the best returner out there. Chung doesn't care if his serve comes back, his firework comes directly after the serve. A bit like Nadal actually.
Secondly: Djokovic hit the ball well today, it was Chung's overwhelming obduracy which made Nole doubt his own game. It's remarkable a 21 y/o can do that
Thirdly: Chung recently won the NextGen ATP finals and is in my view the best athlete out there at the moment. If he stays in the zone like this.. who knows, he can even win the whole thing. 

So yes, if i were Fed, i would prefer double-faulting-Dimi over Chung. Even though it's likely Chung will make mistakes at some point.

If you could do mental gymnastics to convince yourself Chung is harder than Dimitrov, you could probably convince yourself anything, and I’d seriously question knowledge of tennis.
Djokovic was serving terribly today, so many double faults which gave away breaks and tiebreaks. Chung was good, and an impressive youngster no doubt, but his lack of serve may mean his career progresses to Goffin/Nishi max. I don’t think anyone with his serve will be a multi slam winner

It's going to be fun, when soon Chung will make Nadal look like an old man (like Djoko today) and leaves you speechless and look stupid.

Just watched the highlights - can't really measure how well Djoko was playing, but Chung manages some amazing gets, some of them come back at pace, others with real depth, and he is also very good at conjouring up some really tight angles as well as being happy to come up to the net to finish points off.  Just as significant were the nerveless recoveries from 0-30 - although he'd be wise not to do that too often should he face Federer.  

He looks some prospect- perhaps a bit of work on the serve and who knows....?

(nb. before we get ahead of ourselves, I remember a brilliant R4 performance when the young genius beat the ageing master.  The performance heralded much to come, but he still went out in the QF, a match I was lucky enough to see.  It was Wimbledon 2001)

noleisthebest wrote:Haven’t seen the match, will read the comments later.

Yep, you never see his matches when he loses, routine 

No worries, he done ok till here after all the break.Maybe US swing a bit better.

barrystar wrote:

Tenez wrote:

bogbrush wrote:

Tenez wrote:

bogbrush wrote:Funny thing is I can still see Chung losing to anyone. That’s how it is at this stage of a career.

And that serve is a big liability.

Very nice polite lad though. The way he asked if it was ok to speak in Korean to his homeland, versus Kyrgios.

Of course he can lose....but not to anyone. he has shown too much nerves under serious circumstances. Dimi and Cilic can lose to anybody too as again this tournament showed against nobodies.

There’s a major glitch in the ranking system then. I’ll get onto the ATP and put them on to you.

Of course there is a glitch as it takes in form players from the last 12 months. A lot of things change over a year. Ask Djokovic, Murray, Stan, Nishi and many more!

I assume that the result of this 'glitch' is that Dimitrov and Cilic are ranked higher than they otherwise would be (almost certainly Berdych too).  One thing the 'glitch' has not done is affect Chung's ranking at #55 based on 29-18 in 2017, with no wins vs. top 10 in his career until Zverev.  It maybe that Chung has 'flicked the switch' and is about to make a sharp upwards move through the rankings as a result - that happens and players on such a curve are consistently better than their rankings, but that is nothing to do with any ranking glitches.

Well we know Cilic and Dimi have made the most of the many injured players. I would like to think that Berdych has proved a regular top 10 for many years and may have slipped due to niggling injury himself. He has done pretty well in this tournament and certainly dispatching Delpo and Fog so convincingly does place him quite above the other 2, including in the H2H v Nadal...and often much closer scores than Cilic and Dimi got.

The 12 months ranking is a great system....but again, it does not tell you that an injured Murray could be beaten by a 300 ranked player....or that a 12 slam champion can be beaten by a new comer. It's a system in constant mouvement.

barrystar wrote:

(nb. before we get ahead of ourselves, I remember a brilliant R4 performance when the young genius beat the ageing master.  The performance heralded much to come, but he still went out in the QF, a match I was lucky enough to see.  It was Wimbledon 2001)

Yeah, we never have heard of this young genius again...or did we?

Hear hear GP. Everyone who saw the match Nadal v Schwartz knows how close the match was compared to the score line. What lacked Schwarzy was more power, stamina, and above composure and nerves.....which Chung displayed in plenty by playing all the important shots better than teh 12 slam champion.

Dimi will go to Final.