Australian Open 2018

It is crazy at Fed's age but I definitely see him as the No 1 favorite for the title.  Obviously, in Fed vs the field I would favor the field, but he has to be a bigger favorite than anyone else individually.

barrystar wrote:Fed who has the measure of all the guys in his side of the draw on a quick surface if he's in good nick

I think Fed's draw is pretty hard.  On one hand, I do not disagree with this, but on the other hand, I think it is mostly true because he has the measure of all the guys in the tournament if he's in good nick - i.e., no favors due to the draw.

summerblues wrote:I certainly would not put it past the tournaments to rig draws, and the ESPN USO study was reasonably convincing.  But the Rafa vs Nole "study" is utter rubbish.  It may play well in Serbia but if you take it seriously either you do not understand stats or you are - to use an euphemism - being disingenuous.

Why is it rubbish?

It’s plain common sense.

I am afraid you can’t see wood for the tree.

And the best proof it was right is that the trend stopped at the very next slam.

noleisthebest wrote:
And the best proof it was right is that the trend stopped at the very next slam.

There was a 50/50 chance it would stop at the very next slam so it is not quite a proof. What is funny though is that when confronted with the stats the AO TD kind of promised the study authors that the trend would stop at the next slam (his)....and it did.

Tenez wrote:

noleisthebest wrote:
And the best proof it was right is that the trend stopped at the very next slam.

There was a 50/50 chance it would stop at the very next slam so it is not quite a proof.

I suppose you are right...

But it is a 100% proof for my analog + Venus brain!  

Tenez wrote:
What is funny though is that when confronted with the stats the AO TD kind of promised the study authors that the trend would stop at the next slam (his)....and it did.

Hehe, now that surely IS the ultimate proof.

So funny in a way!

Anyway, even now they put Nole in Fed’s half.

Of course, who knows what kind of form he’s going to play in, but still, it would’ve looked better if he was in Nadal’s half...to scare him mentally if nothing else .

Maybe that was Nadal’s condition - ok Roger can have fast court but I want an easy draw.

Plus, this year Nadal will have an extra day of rest before the final (if someone does not beat him before that by miracle), so...


In Dzumhur we trust!

noleisthebest wrote:
In Dzumhur we trust!

Although NAdal is favourite (clear fav to me, given the draw) to win AO, it must be said that -of all slams- it is the AO where Nadal gets beaten when you least expect it. Of course Wimbledon has it's share of upsets when it comes to Nadal but you kinda expect that on grass. He'll always be vulnerable on a low bouncing surface against a big hitter/server with some belief. In the heat of Melbourne Nadal is favorite basically every time he steps on court, but look at his losses: who expected him to lose to Gonzo, Tsonga, Wawrinka, Verdasco, Berdych, Ferrer(!) and even Fed?

Anyway, for now i have conflicting thoughts about it: Fed can win if Nadal gets beaten before the final, but at the same time Fed seems to be the only one who can stop Nadal. My only hope concerning the day less to recover: he should have beaten Nadal last year in three short sets anyway. 

Any updates on the speed of the court yet?

BTW nitb: don't want to spoil your day but have you read this one;
https://www.express.co.uk/sport/tennis/902300/Rafael-Nadal-Grand-Slams-Roger-Federer-Toni-Nadal-Tennis-News
According Tony his nephew has it all (goat-hood) on his racquet. I'd say: what about Nole?

Wooow...
That is such a Toni interview.

A grain of truth seasoned with a slimy compliment followed by a final punch below the waist.

I don’t know what to think about Nole.
I’ll get the better idea once I see a few matches (hopefully he lasts that long).

I really don’t like the guru in his team, and what an idiot Nole is to have a Spaniard telling him what to do.

So, he will never be the old Nole.

However, his tennis is still good enough to trouble Nadal esp come clay.

But then again, Nadal will keep having easy draws and Nole difficult ones.

One of the reasoms I so fervently supported Nole is that he swamwith one arm tied to his back kind of thing, esp in early part of his career.

Even in last Wimbledon, as a defending champion they would not let him play his match on CC due to rain at 7 pm, so he had to wait till Monday while everyone else had already moved to the next round.

In short, I think Nole will come back to his best tennis this year but Nadal will continue to have special treatment.

And even shorter - only a miracle will stop Toni’s words come true.

The good news - I believe in them.

noleisthebest wrote:
In short, I think Nole will come back to his best tennis this year but Nadal will continue to have special treatment.

And even shorter - only a miracle will stop Toni’s words come true.

You know i'm not a fan of Nole but i'll give you this: if Nole gets back to his best tennis, Nadal is doomed and will stick to 16.
And if Fed somehow gets to his 20th this year, Nole's input won't even matter.

noleisthebest wrote:One of the reasoms I so fervently supported Nole is that he swamwith one arm tied to his back kind of thing, esp in early part of his career.

It is exactly the other way around: The reason why you see Nole tied with one arm behind his back is because you support him so fervently - love is blind.

noleisthebest wrote:Why is it rubbish?

Because you cannot do a serious study like this - look at the data, cherry pick whatever works and throw out whatever does not.  This is how people get duped betting in stock markets - they convince themselves they see "patterns", dismissing data that does not agree with their wishful thinking.

Just because people cheat and lie, it does not mean that whatever conspiracy your wishful thinking dreams up becomes true.

noleisthebest wrote:It’s plain common sense.

No. It's plain common nonsense.

gallery play wrote:if Nole gets back to his best tennis

But do you think he will?  I am already writing Andy and Nole off as finished.  Do you think Nole will come back to anywhere near the level he used to be?

summerblues wrote:

noleisthebest wrote:Why is it rubbish?

Because you cannot do a serious study like this - look at the data, cherry pick whatever works and throw out whatever does not.  This is how people get duped betting in stock markets - they convince themselves they see "patterns", dismissing data that does not agree with their wishful thinking.

Just because people cheat and lie, it does not mean that whatever conspiracy your wishful thinking dreams up becomes true.

noleisthebest wrote:It’s plain common sense.

No. It's plain common nonsense.

SB,

you are beginning to sound like an angry woman!

I was expecting a statistical, boring and clinical rebuttal not this emotional “revenge”.

gallery play wrote:

noleisthebest wrote:
In short, I think Nole will come back to his best tennis this year but Nadal will continue to have special treatment.

And even shorter - only a miracle will stop Toni’s words come true.

You know i'm not a fan of Nole but i'll give you this: if Nole gets back to his best tennis, Nadal is doomed and will stick to 16.
And if Fed somehow gets to his 20th this year, Nole's input won't even matter.

I hope so...

Though you can never be too sure and safe from Nadal until he retires...just like in his matches, u til the last shot...or hawkeye shows the ball was out!

summerblues wrote:

noleisthebest wrote:One of the reasoms I so fervently supported Nole is that he swamwith one arm tied to his back kind of thing, esp in early part of his career.

It is exactly the other way around:  The reason why you see Nole tied with one arm behind his back is because you support him so fervently - love is blind.

Naah....Nole always had poor scheduling and tough draws esp at the USO.
To have Federer 12/12 on fast courts in Fed’s physical prime was tough.

Other examples, too.

It doesn’t matter now.

He has positive head to head with both Federer and Nadal, not to mention Murray.

I just wish he got rid of that guru...he is a cancer in Nole’s mind.

P.S.

I don’t think I’ve been a blind fan od Nole at all.

summerblues wrote:I certainly would not put it past the tournaments to rig draws, and the ESPN USO study was reasonably convincing.  But the Rafa vs Nole "study" is utter rubbish.  It may play well in Serbia but if you take it seriously either you do not understand stats or you are - to use an euphemism - being disingenuous.

Nah! You cannot say that. Even without the USO,  the numbers are simply very odd. You cannot dismiss it that easily if you really know your math. And as we know the USO does cheat the Djoko/Fed numbers are even more questionable.

Don;t forget, we are discussing one guy who has bent the tennis rules and for which TDs have slowed down courts everywhere, including bigging balls (USO) to see him go far outside clay. We are not talking about the odds of ferrer versus Stepanek here!

Tomic loses in the qualies. Lol. I did not realize how far down the rankings he has dropped.

summerblues wrote:

gallery play wrote:if Nole gets back to his best tennis

But do you think he will?  I am already writing Andy and Nole off as finished.  Do you think Nole will come back to anywhere near the level he used to be?

Andy is finished, but Nole? Don't forget Federer and Nadal came back immensely strong from the same position. Not long ago Nole had about every tennis records within his reach, and he's  just 30..
He doesn't have a long history of injuries, why would a '"simple" elbow injury end his career?
If he really wants to make the sacrifices he needs to, watch out for Nole.

I wouldn't be surprised if it's precisely Nole who 'll obstruct Fed for getting his 20th, instead of Nadal

summerblues wrote:Tomic loses in the qualies.  Lol.  I did not realize how far down the rankings he has dropped.

Not that he cares much

http://www.bbc.com/sport/tennis/42680163

gallery play wrote:I wouldn't be surprised if it's precisely Nole who 'll obstruct Fed for getting his 20th, instead of Nadal

Too late for Djoko. The next generation of retrievers like Zverev or improving attackers will expose those shotless games. But for Nadal stars always align when needed.

There was nothing wrong with Nadal really, though.  It was more of his nonsense.  Federer is special.  So I don't think you can apply it to Djok.

Somehow I think that Nole's issues are at least as much mental as they are physical. Firing of his coaches, employment of a guru, those are too odd to ignore. That is why I am thinking he is done.

Nole really is a big mystery, even for me.

Regardless of his guru+wife burden he is dragging as a package, I think he is too much of a competitor and a beast of a player to be finished unless he is injured.

The injury was probably the main reason for sacking the whole team.

He says he is not 100% with the elbow, but if anything is to be judged by Federer’s tongue in cheek comments over the last month, Nole’s elbow is fine now...the only problem will be rebuilding confidence and getting into match playing routine.

Last year, Federer was utterly impressive how he came back.

Nadal, too. (I forgot how long he was out for...and was he injured at all?)

I disagree with Tenez that Zverev will bother Nole. Not if he is healthy.

He was practically unbeatable in 2015.

The only question is how his elbow will react to prolonged to matches week in week out.

He may cut his schedule like Federer, not bother with Masters 1000.

He seems to be in awe of Agassi, drinking his every word.

Plus with Radek in the box, they must have some great laughs together.

Daniel wrote:There was nothing wrong with Nadal really, though.  It was more of his nonsense.  Federer is special.  So I don't think you can apply it to Djok.

I don't think so, if you saw his loss to Goffin it's pretty clear his movement got worse as the match wore on, and he couldn't extend his bodyweight into his shots all throughout the match.
I'm a Nadal fan so naturally pro-Nadal, but conversely you don't like him so biased against him- hence your judgement even in obvious cases such as these is off.
Furthermore, if he was feeling fine, why would he withdraw from the tournaments in Abu Dhabi and Brisbane? Common sense that these tournaments after a winter break are good for Aus Open prep.

DECIMA wrote:

noleisthebest wrote:
Hey Decy,
long time no post!
I was actually thinking about you yesterday wondering how you were.
I see you are fine.

Thank you, had exams so very busy!
Hope you had a Merry Christmas and Happy New Year

Ooooh exams....
They are like a workout, you hate them before but glad you did them after.

Thanks, I did have a relaxing week.

But, really I am itching to say how I went with my Christmas present - Fed’s autograph prostaff.

After playing with it a few times I realised why he loved his previous racquet so much.
It had a completely different balance and feel. It was “freer”, more spriteful and joygiving.

The 97” one is decidedly better on volleys and offers much better stability on the BH, as if your arm is somehow stronger and longer with it, also well timed fhs were a bonus, too...

But for some reason, I could not serve with it to save my life.
I mean I could, but it was pathetic...the sound, feel, everything.

The weight is all in the stick part and I think that disturbed everything for me.

It really is a men’s racquet and I am not good enough for it...may come back to it in a year or two.

But having played with it, I could very much relate how it affected and changed Fed’s tennis, it kind of gave him an extra free 10-20% of power, esp on the bh.

It’s much better for the baseline than the previous frame, plus the bigger sweerspot on the volleys.

And it is a gorgeous racquet in its on right, black with matt and glossy parts, really like a little black dress or a tuxedo.

But in my heart of hearts I love the 95” more.
I think that is a perfect racquet.

Interesting video, followong the talk of Nole’s changed service motion.



The last one definitely looks compact and most elegant of the three.

gallery play wrote:

summerblues wrote:Tomic loses in the qualies.  Lol.  I did not realize how far down the rankings he has dropped.

Not that he cares much

http://www.bbc.com/sport/tennis/42680163

Sad really as he had so much potential. I quite like his joke about counting his millions. Those journalists are eager to kick players when they are down and Tomic tried to piss them off or joke. Fair play.