US open prediction game: Day 4

Tenez wrote:I have the feeling Fed could pull out any time now.

I don't know; I suspect he still believes that he'd have a fighting chance against the field other than one or two players. If Nadal were to go out (or to exhibit vulnerability of his own, which summerblues says he did last night) then I think he'll reckon it's worth sticking around to see if it works out for him. Surely there has never been a weaker Slam that this for donkeys years - if it got any weaker it might drop down to a level where he wouldn't need much improvement to have a play.

Just read his Interview. He certainly wants to appear up bit.

summerblues wrote:
This just confirms that players should know when to retire.  Fed is clearly a has-been who should have retired long time ago instead of embarrassing himself here.

True. If only he could turn back time to retire after his Wimbledon loss last year. This year has been painful for him, his fans and sport in general..

Still, there was some logic in what Mats said. Fed was not prepared for Youz to fight back after that first set of demonstration tennis. Roj lost his composure before when it seemed he thought he showed enough for his opponant to concede.

Federer is certainly not 100% fit and his form is not great but maybe he was looking a little bit ahead of this match to soon, too. Youz, a proper and experienced player took advantage of it. Just for 2 sets though because the win never looked really in danger.

Personally i think his back has not been ok since the semi at Wimbledon but it's ok enough for a straight set win against Youz. So Mats had a point there.

I didn't see the "god mode" first set, but from what I did see, Fed didn't play well.

His BH looked slower than Misha's.
Also, slow on his feet.

That means he may get better with matches, as he clearly did not practoce since Canada in order to rest his back.

gallery play wrote:Still, there was some logic in what Mats said. Fed was not prepared for Youz to fight back after that first set of demonstration tennis. Roj lost his composure before when it seemed he thought he showed enough for his opponant to concede.

Federer is certainly not 100% fit and his form is not great but maybe he was looking a little bit ahead of this match to soon, too. Youz, a proper and experienced player took advantage of it. Just for 2 sets though because the win never looked really in danger.

Personally i think his back has not been ok since the semi at Wimbledon but it's ok enough for a straight set win against Youz. So Mats had a point there.

Having first dismissed Wilander, that was my reflection on it. If you look at the two sets, actually he went off the rails from 5-4 2nd set to 1-3 3rd, a relatively narrow period. Thereafter whilst he wasn't right he was holding his own.

noleisthebest wrote:I didn't see the "god mode" first set, but from what I did see, Fed didn't play well.

His BH looked slower than Misha's.
Also, slow on his feet.

That means he may get better with matches, as he clearly did not practoce since Canada in order to rest his back.

He wasn't God mode per se, he was hitting some shots that no other player could even think of trying. He did three in a row plus a fourth in the same game, including two drop-dead drop shot service returns. They weren't athletic God mode shots, just skill and as such didn't contradict the observation that he wasn't moving well.

So glad I haven't seen a full match or I would be going mental. 

If Lopez don't get injured and has any balls then he should take the goat out. According to some people his forehand is barely top 100 level, he is a walking bye for any top 20 player now.

Wow Federer hasn't looked at all nimble and mobile. His net play looks dreadful in the opening matches. 

Whilst I admire his variety and determination to be proactive, I feel it's always led to a stick or twist approach in terms of trying too much to vary and thus not selecting the right shot/play to the situation which looks painful to some. Coming in on shots where it's not prudent to do so. Looks scattered and disjointed.

Just hope he limbers up in the next match.

I think we are beginning to overanalyse.

The guy is 36, with lots of miles in his legs and creaky joints in the morning...well, creaky for the smooth and gliding game he plays.

So, it's natural he's gathering momentum from post Montreal. He may look rusty and/or stiff, but he's always needed matches before hitting a few breath-taking flying ones. (with the exception of one and only, magical AO2017)

I wasn't watching closely, but he did play like he wants to lift the title next Sunday.

And although he is Fed and all that means, we need to be a bit more patient and faithful.

He has always given his best.

For me, that's more than enough.

Happy with the player and his focus for sure... I just don't think he can sustain long matches anymore.
I said that he domination at Wimbledon looked much more fragile as he was under constant pressure not to lose a set. This is so important to him that when he does you can see his concentration collapses.

The only positive is that his next opponent is nearly as old and doesn't like long rallies either.

The way I see it, if he is to win this USO, he won't win it with his legs, but his heart.

One of his unsung weapons.

And rightly so if he wants to lift Richard (the Lionheart).

There isn't as much panic if Federer is telling the truth and he's fit.  And I believe he is - because he has no reason to lie at this point.  He made it clear that its the preparation that's making him sluggish.  If he can find his range, he'll be back in this. But that's a big question. His draw is awful - and he's already played 10 sets.  The chances of a 6th US Open imho are already gone.  I think it will be the bottom half where the winner is from.

He has an excellent reason for "lying". It's called bluffing. Not showing his opponent any weaknesses. The reason is simple: look at the effect it had on Youzhny yesterday and he saw Fed struggling. It gave him wings and played much better.

Tenez wrote:Happy with the player and his focus for sure... I just don't think he can sustain long matches anymore.
I said that he domination  at Wimbledon looked much more fragile as he was under constant pressure not to lose a set. This is so important to him that when  he does you can see his concentration collapses.

The only positive is that his next opponent is nearly as old and doesn't like long rallies either.

I simply cannot reconcile this analysis with AO2017. The matches with Nishikori, Wawrinka and Nadal surely give the lie to the idea that he can't handle 5-setters.

noleisthebest wrote:I think we are beginning to overanalyse.

The guy is 36, with lots of miles in his legs and creaky joints in the morning...well, creaky for the smooth and gliding game he plays.

So, it's natural he's gathering momentum from post Montreal. He may look rusty and/or stiff, but he's always needed matches before hitting a few breath-taking flying ones. (with the exception of one and only, magical AO2017)

No, AO 2017 was not an exception. He was very ordinary in the early rounds and only came to life against Berdych in the 3rd round.

Tenez wrote:He has an excellent reason for "lying". It's called bluffing. Not showing his opponent any weaknesses. The reason is simple: look at the effect it had on Youzhny yesterday and he saw Fed struggling.  It gave him wings and played much better.

Or he's just telling the truth.  I go on facts not opinion. The fact is he says his back is fine.

"This match wasn't about the back, which is good." Federer

He's def got problem with his back, it's stiff, and that is affecting his movement and also his timing.

His practice session was so obvious.

Maybe he doesn't have acute pain, but that can get triggered any time as he's played a lot this year.
(esp,the AO, IW, Miami) stretch.

Even in Wimbledon he never reached AO form.

And of course he is not going to advertise it, Daniel.

Look how long Nole played with injured arm...18 months...even won RG carrying that injury...yet never breathed a word about it, until he could not play any more.

So, that's how it is.

Of course we all hope Fed's back holds, but I am not expecting any spectacular tennis from him.
It will be grit and heart, stg like WTF SF vs Stan.

bogbrush wrote:

Tenez wrote:Happy with the player and his focus for sure... I just don't think he can sustain long matches anymore.
I said that he domination  at Wimbledon looked much more fragile as he was under constant pressure not to lose a set. This is so important to him that when  he does you can see his concentration collapses.

The only positive is that his next opponent is nearly as old and doesn't like long rallies either.

I simply cannot reconcile this analysis with AO2017. The matches with Nishikori, Wawrinka and Nadal surely give the lie to the idea that he can't handle 5-setters.

As I said a few times, this was:
1 - right after a 6 months rest!
2 - Those tough matches are really well spread out - with short matches (Misha) between those 5 setters, including 2 days rest between Sf and Final. I certainly don;t think he woudl have won had he had only one day.
3 - We coudl still see those weird, inexplicable, ups and downs in that AO within those 5 setters, especially after Berdych.

gallery play wrote:

summerblues wrote:
This just confirms that players should know when to retire.  Fed is clearly a has-been who should have retired long time ago instead of embarrassing himself here.

True. If only he could turn back time to retire after his Wimbledon loss last year. This year has been painful for him, his fans and sport in general..

Tenez wrote:

bogbrush wrote:

Tenez wrote:Happy with the player and his focus for sure... I just don't think he can sustain long matches anymore.
I said that he domination  at Wimbledon looked much more fragile as he was under constant pressure not to lose a set. This is so important to him that when  he does you can see his concentration collapses.

The only positive is that his next opponent is nearly as old and doesn't like long rallies either.

I simply cannot reconcile this analysis with AO2017. The matches with Nishikori, Wawrinka and Nadal surely give the lie to the idea that he can't handle 5-setters.

As I said a few times, this was:
1 - right after a 6 months rest!
2 - Those tough matches are really well spread out - with short matches (Misha) between those 5 setters,  including 2 days rest between Sf and Final.  I certainly don;t think he woudl have won had he had only one day.
3 - We coudl still see those weird, inexplicable, ups and downs in that AO within those 5 setters, especially after Berdych.

On 2 the same will apply provided Lopez is brief (like Zverev)

On 1 he's been off for a good break after Wimbledon, which itself was 21 sets + straight sets Halle after a big break through clay.

Daniel wrote:The fact is he says his back is fine.

Yeah, but that is not the same as saying "the fact is that his back is fine".  Players obviously have incentives to be disingenuous about their state, especially midway through the tournament.

Anyway, as nitb said, I also think we are overanalyzing it.  He skipped Cincy and could not train properly because of back issues; we all agree on that.  Whether he is now just undercooked, or whether he has mild back issues, or whether the issues are really bad is what it is.  We can just sit back, and watch and see if/how he manages to progress.

If he lifts the trophy, I will not care whether or not he is doing it with a healthy or a bad back; and likewise if he fails to win.

I can only go off what he said.  And what he said is his back is ok and was not in any way the issue in the match.  The rest is simply calling Federer a liar.  That's Tenez position... but it aint mine.

Daniel wrote:I can only go off what he said.  And what he said is his back is ok and was not in any way the issue in the match.  The rest is simply calling Federer a liar.  That's Tenez position... but it aint mine.

But people lie.  And this would be a pretty innocent lie anyway.  We can go off a number of things:

- what he said,
- what his game looks like
- what we know about his age/health
- etc

In this case I do not think it is such an unreasonable guess for Tenez to conclude it is the back.

Tenez wrote:

Daniel wrote:@Tenez Well, I happen to actually believe what he says.  Federer knows how his back is more than you do :P And there is no evidence he's lying.

That's really what puzzles me. There is more than "evidence"....Even I can feel his pain!

You must be suffering from phantom limb syndrome.

And he wasn't lying, so whatever you felt was not reality. 

It's not outside the realms of possibility for a player to dismiss the nature of their health. Crikey.

Why would one be open about an injury and give their opponents a bullseye to focus on.

True. Federer is a long standing liar when it comes to covering up injuries (the polar opposite of one or two rivals).

However, it seems that just this once he might have been telling the truth. Either that or he's decided to in ject and take the consequences (but injections wouldn't give him what he had the other day).