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ATP Masters 1000: Miami

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Re: ATP Masters 1000: Miami

Post by Tenez on Mon Apr 06, 2015 10:53 pm

If Murray were to do it more often..he'd probably have less chance of reaching finals.

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Re: ATP Masters 1000: Miami

Post by ... on Mon Apr 06, 2015 10:53 pm

Thr first paragraph mentioning lungs and legs sounds like he's been reading you.
Better late than never!

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Re: ATP Masters 1000: Miami

Post by DECIMA on Mon Apr 06, 2015 10:59 pm

Tenez, I created a thread for those stats readings, we'll discuss it there.

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Re: ATP Masters 1000: Miami

Post by bogbrush on Tue Apr 07, 2015 8:45 pm

Tenez wrote:
bogbrush wrote:Perhaps players really are getting better all the time.

For instance, Rod Laver is playing better than ever, but Federer has raised his own game even further. It makes Rod look like he has lost a step.


* acknowledgements to my good friend HMMurdoch

BB...according to you...it's even more comical....Djoko can only dominate cause the musketeers declined...isn't it?
By the way, does this only apply to tennis? Do footballers retire because the game moves on rather than for physical decline? Or boxers? Or cricketers?

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Re: ATP Masters 1000: Miami

Post by summerblues on Wed Apr 08, 2015 4:39 am

Or Sergey Bubka?

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Re: ATP Masters 1000: Miami

Post by Tenez on Wed Apr 08, 2015 7:45 am

summerblues wrote:Or Sergey Bubka?
you mean Bubka the pole vault champion whose best performances ever were achieved at 30 and 31?!!??

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Re: ATP Masters 1000: Miami

Post by Tenez on Wed Apr 08, 2015 8:04 am

bogbrush wrote:
Tenez wrote:
bogbrush wrote:Perhaps players really are getting better all the time.

For instance, Rod Laver is playing better than ever, but Federer has raised his own game even further. It makes Rod look like he has lost a step.

* acknowledgements to my good friend HMMurdoch

BB...according to you...it's even more comical....Djoko can only dominate cause the musketeers declined...isn't it?
By the way, does this only apply to tennis? Do footballers retire because the game moves on rather than for physical decline? Or boxers? Or cricketers?
Each sport has it's specifics. I think Gebrelassie carrier is interesting in that respect. It gives us information on what his body could cope best with age....

Record du monde du :5 000 m : 12 min 56 s 96 en 1994, 12 min 44 s 39 en 1995, 12 min 41 s 86 en 1997, 12 min 39 s 36 en 1998
Record du monde du 10 000 m : 26 min 43 s 53 en 1995, 26 min 31 s 32 en 1997, 26 min 22 s 75 en 1998
Record du monde semi-marathon : en 58 min 55 en 2006
Record du monde 20 km route en 55 min 48 s 00 en 2006
Record du monde du 10 km route en 27 min 02 s en 2004
Record du monde du 25 km en 1 h 11 min 37 s à Alphen aan den Rijn (Pays-Bas), le 12 mars 2006
Record du monde 20 000 m sur piste en 56 min 26 s 00 à Ostrava (République tchèque), le 27 juin 2007
Record du monde de l'heure sur piste : 21 km 285 à Ostrava (République tchèque), le 27 juin 2007
Record du monde du marathon en 2 h 04 min 26 s à Berlin (Allemagne), le 30 septembre 2007, et 2 h 03 min 59 s l'année suivante, de nouveau à Berlin, le 28 septembre 2008.

Clearly, his stamina improved with age (30-34) while the combination of speed/stamina was achieved eralier...unless some became better at it as he got older. Difficult to say as he may have realised what he is really good late in his career.

Tennis is a special sport as the performance is directly affected by who you play and therefore the chance to play and beating Nadal can only be achieved by playing and beating Nadal. There is no point for Pete or McEnroe to speculate how good they are if they have not learnt to play him. Since Nadal Djoko and Murray have all endorsed the "physical game" and that type of game is so far the "best game" Federer by learning how to play this game has become "better".

There is no point being a good SVer v Nadal or Djoko...you need to evolve and try to beat those guys with your own weapons and that means changing your game. That is quite unique to tennis, table tennis and other racquet sport. The slight loss of fitness can be compensated with knowledge, experience, better timing and even better stamina (up to beginning 30s). This is why the tour is currently getting older. Things might change if new technology or techniques are created.

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Re: ATP Masters 1000: Miami

Post by ... on Wed Apr 08, 2015 9:34 am

Tenez wrote:
Tennis is a special sport as the performance is directly affected by who you play and therefore the chance to play and beating Nadal can only be achieved by playing and beating Nadal. There is no point for Pete or McEnroe to speculate how good they are if they have not learnt to play him. Since Nadal Djoko and Murray have all endorsed the "physical game" and that type of game is so far the "best game" Federer by learning how to play this game has become "better".

There is no point being a good SVer v Nadal or Djoko...you need to evolve and try to beat those guys with your own weapons and that means changing your game. That is quite unique to tennis, table tennis and other racquet sport. The slight loss of fitness can be compensated with knowledge, experience, better timing and even better stamina (up to beginning 30s). This is why the tour is currently getting older. Things might change if new technology or techniques are created.  
Excellent post.

I find current stage of tennis evolution quite interesting: players have caught up with fitness (though young ones are still disadvantaged because of physical strength and muscle maturity/endurance , i.e. stamina).

Everyone is hitting the ball harder and those with talent are not so disadvantaged like in Nadal's era a few years ago.

For me, Stan's beating Nadal in AO 2014 was a turning point in that direction.

Although tennis world is caught up with Nole's current diminance, I don't see it as long lasting.
He's got to make the most of 2015.

Federer is the most interesting piece of the jigsaw in all this.
It is such a shame time is not on his side, 2-3 years left, max.

I hope his back holds for Wimbledon.

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Re: ATP Masters 1000: Miami

Post by ... on Wed Apr 08, 2015 9:51 am

Tenez wrote:
Tennis is a special sport as the performance is directly affected by who you play and therefore the chance to play and beating Nadal can only be achieved by playing and beating Nadal. There is no point for Pete or McEnroe to speculate how good they are if they have not learnt to play him. Since Nadal Djoko and Murray have all endorsed the "physical game" and that type of game is so far the "best game" Federer by learning how to play this game has become "better".

There is no point being a good SVer v Nadal or Djoko...you need to evolve and try to beat those guys with your own weapons and that means changing your game. That is quite unique to tennis, table tennis and other racquet sport. The slight loss of fitness can be compensated with knowledge, experience, better timing and even better stamina (up to beginning 30s). This is why the tour is currently getting older. Things might change if new technology or techniques are created.  
For me, IW final was like an x-ray shot of current game.

Here we had slow conditions and the ultimate ends of the spectrum: two players who they suited most and least.

With all his talent, experience, fitness etc, Federer was still able to impose his game and take away time from Nole but only in a few short stretches of the match.


That is how physical and slow the game has become, like an insurmountable mountain.

Most observers see it as Federer being old and declined: why is he not cutting through the opposition like knife through butter as in his "prime", they ask?

Well this match holds all the answers.

The person across the net and tennis symbolised in him (and all that that tennis consists of: supreme fitness, movement, ball control with spin and excellent consistent yet safe length) is like a strong wind blowing in your direction.

How fast can you cycle on the road with and without wind?
How much more physical effort do you need to put in just to maintain the same speed?
At what point do you stop and even start moving backward?


We saw how different they looked only a few weeks before that in Dubai. Just that slight change of conditions.

Does this mean people before this era were "worse" tennis players or that their eras were weak?

Certainly not.


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Re: ATP Masters 1000: Miami

Post by ... on Wed Apr 08, 2015 11:14 am

Tenez wrote:
Tennis  is a special sport as the performance is directly affected by who you play and therefore the chance to play and beating Nadal can only be achieved by playing and beating Nadal. There is no point for Pete or McEnroe to speculate how good they are if they have not learnt to play him. Since Nadal Djoko and Murray have all endorsed the "physical game" and that type of game is so far the "best game" Federer by learning how to play this game has become "better".

There is no point being a good SVer v Nadal or Djoko...you need to evolve and try to beat those guys with your own weapons and that means changing your game. That is quite unique to tennis, table tennis and other racquet sport. The slight loss of fitness can be compensated with knowledge, experience, better timing and even better stamina (up to beginning 30s). This is why the tour is currently getting older. Things might change if new technology or techniques are created.  

Tennis skill/talent have always been the same, conditions and equipment have changed.

I heard an interesting theory why DBH was introduced: apparently when tennis started becoming popular among "liberated" English middle class women in the 60s they could not hit the ball with one hand and coaches started introducing the second arm.

Same with technology in many ways.

New strings and bigger frames are not made so that pros can play better (to a tiny extent that is the case), but masses of club players who actually support big equipment sponsors.

In that very popular clip from v2, just look at the size of Laver's racquet!
What does that tell us?

Correct me if I'm wrong,  but racquets and strings were not changing much before tennis went pro.

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Re: ATP Masters 1000: Miami

Post by DECIMA on Wed Apr 08, 2015 11:35 am

Tenez, your argument is in tatters and you know it.

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Re: ATP Masters 1000: Miami

Post by bogbrush on Wed Apr 08, 2015 6:10 pm

Tenez, your post about the uniqueness of racquet sports is odd. Don't virtually all combative sports involve the same dynamic?

Football and boxing certainly do; so I ask whether players retire from those sports because the game moves on or because of their own decline.

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Re: ATP Masters 1000: Miami

Post by sphairistike on Wed Apr 08, 2015 7:53 pm

bogbrush wrote:Tenez, your post about the uniqueness of racquet sports is odd. Don't virtually all combative sports involve the same dynamic?

Football and boxing certainly do; so I ask whether players retire from those sports because the game moves on or because of their own decline.
Boxing is an example that actually helps Tenez's argument. How old is Floyd Mayweather, Jr.? 38.
The only reason why they would retire is they got knocked enough on the head and continuing would endanger their health and the risk reward would not be worth it anymore...

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Re: ATP Masters 1000: Miami

Post by Tenez on Wed Apr 08, 2015 10:09 pm

bogbrush wrote:Tenez, your post about the uniqueness of racquet sports is odd. Don't virtually all combative sports involve the same dynamic?

Football and boxing certainly do; so I ask whether players retire from those sports because the game moves on or because of their own decline.

I dunno much about football...but it is bizarre that the "ballon d'or" was given to 30yo Ronaldo and not 27yo Messie. But frankly you can't compare all sports..there is too much technique and teh game evolves too much to peak at 25-27.

Ask yourself why Chief orchestra and pianists have careers well over their 50s....where timing is so key to their jobs. Again, why is it that all top tennis doubles players where reflexes and timing is so important have an age average of 40yo?

Do you really think that someone who peaks at 27 would be any efficient at 40?

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Re: ATP Masters 1000: Miami

Post by Tenez on Wed Apr 08, 2015 10:23 pm

sphairistike wrote:
bogbrush wrote:Tenez, your post about the uniqueness of racquet sports is odd. Don't virtually all combative sports involve the same dynamic?

Football and boxing certainly do; so I ask whether players retire from those sports because the game moves on or because of their own decline.
Boxing is an example that actually helps Tenez's argument. How old is Floyd Mayweather, Jr.? 38.
The only reason why they would retire is they got knocked enough on the head and continuing would endanger their health and the risk reward would not be worth it anymore...

yep..good point....Foreman became wrold champion again at 45, while Ali's best years are known to be from 32.

but again, this is is a different sport...racquet is very different cause unlike Boxing, it evolves quickly and new technology can have huge influence in shortening the career of current older champion. I showed how Luxilon strings (or before larger graphite racquets) terminated quickly the career of the then top players.

This is why in early 2005 the average age of top 5 players was 23yo!!!! Imagine having that now????

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Re: ATP Masters 1000: Miami

Post by ... on Wed Apr 08, 2015 11:47 pm

bogbrush wrote:Tenez, your post about the uniqueness of racquet sports is odd. Don't virtually all combative sports involve the same dynamic?

Football and boxing certainly do; so I ask whether players retire from those sports because the game moves on or because of their own decline.

Tennis is far more complex than boxing.
It is a very special game and no other sport comes close to it.

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Re: ATP Masters 1000: Miami

Post by summerblues on Thu Apr 09, 2015 3:38 am

Tenez wrote:you mean Bubka the pole vault champion whose best performances ever were achieved at 30 and 31?!!??
Oh Tenez, don't act like you do not understand.  If you are interested in serious discussion, then address the point rather than evade it.

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Re: ATP Masters 1000: Miami

Post by Tenez on Thu Apr 09, 2015 7:31 am

summerblues wrote:
Tenez wrote:you mean Bubka the pole vault champion whose best performances ever were achieved at 30 and 31?!!??
Oh Tenez, don't act like you do not understand.  If you are interested in serious discussion, then address the point rather than evade it.
What point do you make by just throwing in the name of an athlete?

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Re: ATP Masters 1000: Miami

Post by DECIMA on Thu Apr 09, 2015 1:38 pm

summerblues wrote:
Tenez wrote:you mean Bubka the pole vault champion whose best performances ever were achieved at 30 and 31?!!??
Oh Tenez, don't act like you do not understand.  If you are interested in serious discussion, then address the point rather than evade it.
Yes make points about how the game has really speeded up in 4 years, and when there's a much more comprehensive look at how the pace of rallies has changed using exactly the same methodology as you did, ignore it. Winking

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Re: ATP Masters 1000: Miami

Post by Tenez on Fri Apr 10, 2015 12:11 am

Golf is interesting in comparison. I think players shoudl also peak at around 30, if not later.....but we can see a lot of youngsters piercing through...and that is the clear result of the sport becoming more competitive with more talents taking on the game.

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Re: ATP Masters 1000: Miami

Post by summerblues on Fri Apr 10, 2015 3:03 am

Tenez wrote:What point do you make by just throwing in the name of an athlete?
If you look at my post in the context of the couple of posts that preceded it I would have thought it would be plenty clear what the point was.

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Re: ATP Masters 1000: Miami

Post by Tenez on Fri Apr 10, 2015 6:52 am

If your point is the same as BB I believe I have answered it. It's also a strange question (BB's) in itself as I am not saying that athletes improve for ever and I don't know many athletes retiring at 27yo cause they are past their best.

I keep answering all your points yet I don't read anywhere you answering my points.

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Re: ATP Masters 1000: Miami

Post by ... on Fri Apr 10, 2015 11:18 am

Tenez wrote:If your point is the same as BB I believe I have answered it. It's also a strange question (BB's) in itself as I am not saying that athletes improve for ever and I don't know many athletes retiring at 27yo cause they are past their best.

I keep answering all your points yet I don't read anywhere you answering my points.
I noticed that, too Winking

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Re: ATP Masters 1000: Miami

Post by DECIMA on Fri Apr 10, 2015 11:23 am

Tenez wrote:
I keep answering all your points yet I don't read anywhere you answering my points.
Yeah, said the person who has avoided a thread altogether Winking

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Re: ATP Masters 1000: Miami

Post by summerblues on Sat Apr 11, 2015 2:35 am

Tenez wrote:If your point is the same as BB I believe I have answered it. It's also a strange question (BB's) in itself as I am not saying that athletes improve for ever and I don't know many athletes retiring at 27yo cause they are past their best.
Ok, I think maybe my point was not as obvious as I thought it was.  This was in reference to your suggestion that athletes typically get overtaken by younger ones before they even start declining.

I hope we both will agree this was not the case with Bubka (to this date, the vast majority of the jumps above 6.05m or so are his jumps and his world record has been barely beaten).  And Bubka is more of a rule rather than exception in measurable sports (such as athletics) - an all-time great is much more likely than not to decline before the younger guys catch up with him.

So if you claim it is otherwise in tennis, the onus is on you to demonstrate that.

Tenez wrote:I keep answering all your points yet I don't read anywhere you answering my points.
This is factually incorrect (in spite of what nitb would have you believe).  We went through this debate months ago and there was a fair amount of back and forth with people answering each other's points.  In order to restart the debate, the onus is on you to provide new justification for your view rather than rehash the ones we talked about months ago.

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Re: ATP Masters 1000: Miami

Post by Tenez on Sat Apr 11, 2015 8:04 am

summerblues wrote:I hope we both will agree this was not the case with Bubka (to this date, the vast majority of the jumps above 6.05m or so are his jumps and his world record has been barely beaten).  And Bubka is more of a rule rather than exception in measurable sports (such as athletics) - an all-time great is much more likely than not to decline before the younger guys catch up with him.

So if you claim it is otherwise in tennis, the onus is on you to demonstrate that.

Yes I believe I answered that too multiple times in the past and not sure how to articulate it better.

There are a few factors why Bubka retired before youngsters took over. I mentioned that pole vault is not a sport practiced by 100k of youngsters. As a matter of fact there are no Pole vault club in my neighbourhood, not even athletic club while we have 100 tennis club in London alone. So you would agree that competition is not nearly as fierce. So if you excelled at such rare sport, you would be likely to decline before youngsters would push you out and down.

Secondly and more importantly, PV’s challenge is versus a bar (fixed height), the whole challenge is personal, while in tennis it is versus a racing horde. A racing horde which doesn’t tire but gets faster and lasts longer as time goes by. If Nadal had to train and play versus a field of the Musketeers level, new racquet or not, he would never be nearly as good as now. Whereas the bar Bubka was facing then is the same as the bar athletes in 1920s were facing (more or less as the pole itself got better I guess).

We are about to see that phenomen in golf too. Tiger Wood made them all dream, like Borg influenced his successors and despite the cost of playing golf, more youngsters are able to practice it professionally. Spieth, Illroy and quite a few other youngsters are not peaking right now, they are simply getting better earlier than their older piers.

But what is proving the point more than anything regarding Bubka is that he himself peaked at 30-31 and not at 27! Bizarely as at 27 he would be physically faster,  lighter and more springy, 3 essential factors to jump high. Yet at 27 he was 10cm short of his best performance! SO I ask you the question..how come? if athletes are meant to decline after 27?

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Re: ATP Masters 1000: Miami

Post by summerblues on Tue Apr 14, 2015 2:40 am

Tenez wrote:Secondly and more importantly, PV’s challenge is versus a bar (fixed height), the whole challenge is personal, while in tennis it is versus a racing horde. A racing horde which doesn’t tire but gets faster and lasts longer as time goes by. If Nadal had to train and play versus a field of the Musketeers level, new racquet or not, he would never be nearly as good as now. Whereas the bar Bubka was facing then is the same as the bar athletes in 1920s were facing (more or less as the pole itself got better I guess).
Here you are theorizing, but providing no justification why this would matter.  In athletics players also push each other by virtue of getting better and better - just because their performance is measurable on an absolute basis it does not mean they do not push each other.

This is just not convincing and I would say the ball is still very much in your court.  If you think otherwise, or do not have any better arguments, I think the best is to agree to disagree as we did last year.

Tenez wrote:SO I ask you the question..how come? if athletes are meant to decline after 27?
Why are you asking me?  I did not say pole vaulters had to decline at 27.  The optimum age varies from sport to sport.  In men's golf it is quite possibly well into the 30s while in women's gymnastics maybe more like 13.  I have no idea what the optimal age for pole vault is.

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Re: ATP Masters 1000: Miami

Post by Tenez on Tue Apr 14, 2015 8:54 am

summerblues wrote:
Tenez wrote:Secondly and more importantly, PV’s challenge is versus a bar (fixed height), the whole challenge is personal, while in tennis it is versus a racing horde. A racing horde which doesn’t tire but gets faster and lasts longer as time goes by. If Nadal had to train and play versus a field of the Musketeers level, new racquet or not, he would never be nearly as good as now. Whereas the bar Bubka was facing then is the same as the bar athletes in 1920s were facing (more or less as the pole itself got better I guess).
Here you are theorizing, but providing no justification why this would matter.  In athletics players also push each other by virtue of getting better and better - just because their performance is measurable on an absolute basis it does not mean they do not push each other.

This is just not convincing and I would say the ball is still very much in your court.  If you think otherwise, or do not have any better arguments, I think the best is to agree to disagree as we did last year.

Tenez wrote:SO I ask you the question..how come? if athletes are meant to decline after 27?
Why are you asking me?  I did not say pole vaulters had to decline at 27.  The optimum age varies from sport to sport.  In men's golf it is quite possibly well into the 30s while in women's gymnastics maybe more like 13.  I have no idea what the optimal age for pole vault is.

I must say your lack of good faith is staggering (well I hope it's that!). If you can't see the difference between a challenge and an improving challenge then there is not much I can do.

Maybe just ask yourself why the musketeers dominated tennis, why is it that suddenly 4 guys are the best in the world. Ask yourself why pros train in tennis academies. Why has Murray become so much better than his brother by going to Spain training with better players while his brother, more talented according to Murray, did not go very far by training in Scotland with lesser players.

Then ask yourself why Bubka became that good so much better than anybody else with no peers close to his level!

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