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Post by noleisthebest on Mon Feb 02, 2015 1:51 pm

Djokovic has surpassed Nadal on the top 10 wins list (wins against top 10 players).

That puts an interesting angle on the so much quoted Nadal's H2H.

If we also add the fact Nole has 4 WTF titles where he had to beat only top 10 players, and Nadal - zero, it gives a better perspective on the questionable quality of Nadal's dominance.


1.  Federer 183
2.  Djokovic 130
3.  Nadal 129
4.  Sampras 124
5.  Becker 121
6.  Lendl 119
7.  Agassi 109
8.  Edberg 96
9.  McEnroe & Connors  85 (esp Connors who had a million years long career!)


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Post by Tenez on Mon Feb 02, 2015 2:46 pm

Interesting but this era stats are really messed up by the slow conds. In essence it means Djoko and Nadal are the fittest by some margins. The 90s stats were also a bit messed up cause it said in effect "Pete has the best second serve). However having a great second serve is somehow tennis related, being the fittest and being able to make the most of it on those slow conds is a bit frustrating. The fact it is so physical, it helps the other physical players like Murray and Ferrer to be regular top 10 and regular at teh business end of tournaments which in turn helps Djoko and Nadal's top 10 wins stats.

Djoko and Nadal have 14 of their 22 slams on the slowest slams. That's close to 7 slams out of 10!


I am hopeful we can soon turn a page on this slugfest era!....with horrible finals!

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Post by noleisthebest on Mon Feb 02, 2015 3:23 pm

Yes, slow conditions have definitely contributed to this phenomenon, it also feels like the whole era is frozen in time a bit, enabling older players to last longer due to age improved stamina, at the same time slowing the intake of younger generation by raising their breakthrough age.

Still, conditions were not slowed down for Nole, and he was doing quite well before 2010. On all surfaces.

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Post by truffin1 on Mon Feb 02, 2015 4:02 pm

Djoko gave Nadal a head start as it took longer for him to hit his peak, but he is quickly making a serious case that he is the best player of his generation. 

Soon to have more weeks at #1 over Nadal
soon to have more year end #1's
Will surpass Nadal head to head if Nadal plays a full schedule and quits ducking from him off clay
More top 10 wins
More WTF's
Will have similar Masters Totals when it's all said an done
More semi finals, quarters, than Nadal in Majors.

and prob  end up as close to Nadal in Major total as Nadal is to Federer.

My prediction in a couple of years is it's not longer an argument of whether Nadal is close to Federer in overall GOAT, but whether Djokovic is...

even Toni agrees.

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Post by Tenez on Mon Feb 02, 2015 4:03 pm

He was doing ok before 2010 but Chang and Hewitt did very well too in the very fast carpet era. It does not mean much. We see Djoko covering more ground than any of the player out there..and that in itself says a lot.

I am intrigued to find out who will be able to overtake him next. It is not going to be an easy task.

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Post by BEL19VE on Mon Feb 02, 2015 5:32 pm

I'd say if I had to pick between Nadal and Federer in the GOAT debate, atm Nadal has the narrow edge- given he had to face far harder competition and deal with horrendous injury problems which have ripped up his career.
With Djokovic- we don't know- he could just get a few more Slams- or he could get many many more and break records. We'll have to wait and see. He's an exceptional player.

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Post by noleisthebest on Mon Feb 02, 2015 10:40 pm

Tenez wrote:He was doing ok before 2010 but Chang and Hewitt did very well too in the very fast carpet era. It does not mean much. We see Djoko covering more ground than any of the player out there..and that in itself says a lot.

I am intrigued to find out who will be able to overtake him next. It is not going to be an easy task.

To me Lucas Pouille is a modern version of Federer: attacking mindset, strong build, good competitor, natural player, a FH weapon.
Didn't notice if there was variety there, slices etc, but that can come later. The basics looked pretty good for a 20 year old!

The question is just how consistent he is going to be, as from that 5 setter against from time to time difficult Monfils, he was able to play through his defence.
He likes to move forward unlike Stan who has similar power but prefers to limit his game to the base-line until he is safe to come to the net.

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Post by Tenez on Tue Feb 03, 2015 11:27 am

Lucas certainly looked promising. We have to see however how he does versus more aggressive players. It something killing Monfils pushing shots and another to deal with pacier ones. This is why I woudl like to see more of him....but he is still young so he certainly looks prominsing.

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Post by noleisthebest on Tue Feb 03, 2015 11:45 am

He is playing in Marseille today, really glad he didn't disappear as all these young player seem to after a good showing.

Where are Vesely, Herbert Kokiinakis & Kyrgios this week?

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Post by noleisthebest on Tue Feb 03, 2015 11:51 am

truffin1 wrote:Djoko gave Nadal a head start as it took longer for him to hit his peak, but he is quickly making a serious case that he is the best player of his generation. 
Soon to have more weeks at #1 over Nadal
soon to have more year end #1's
Will surpass Nadal head to head if Nadal plays a full schedule and quits ducking from him off clay
More top 10 wins
More WTF's
Will have similar Masters Totals when it's all said an done
More semi finals, quarters, than Nadal in Majors.
and prob  end up as close to Nadal in Major total as Nadal is to Federer.
My prediction in a couple of years is it's not longer an argument of whether Nadal is close to Federer in overall GOAT, but whether Djokovic is...
even Toni agrees.

I doubt Nole will catch Nadal in slams, mainly as Nole has much more competition on hard courts than Nadal has ever had on clay due to his physicality.
If you take away Nadal's clay titles, you really see who he is as a player...and even those titles have all been results of superhuman physical efforts.
As time goes by zero WTF trophies looks like the most interesting hole in Nadal's CV.

I'd like Nole to win 2-3 more slams.

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Post by Tenez on Tue Feb 03, 2015 12:37 pm

noleisthebest wrote:I'd like Nole to win 2-3 more slams.

That should in his racquet.

I think the AO is as good to Djoko as teh FO is to Nadal ...as Wimby was for Federer. There Djoko is safe that no one can keep the distance with him...unless a Federer or Stan can produce a great game. ..Makes me realise that Fed has not beaten Djoko at the AO since 2007....I believe....whereas he has beaten Djoko on all other HC....and been closer to beat him 2 more times in that USO.

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Post by noleisthebest on Tue Feb 03, 2015 3:24 pm

I haven't checked, but don't remember Fed playing Nole in AO since 2011, and that was a very good match, esp the first set that went to TB.

Really look forward to this RG for some reason.
All I want is everyone to be injury free and a fair draw!

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Post by Autumnleaf on Tue Feb 03, 2015 7:22 pm

Top 10 list mainly shows who does well in WTF, since there alone a player can beat 5 top 10 players in a row, while at other competitions a player doesn't even necessarily meets a top 10er.

Whether Djokovic comes close to Nadal in major count mainly depends on whether the "lost boys" finally step up. So far there is little indication to it, something is always missing with them.

- Nishikori: so far the best bet, as a great mover he fits the modern game, but doesn't have big enough weapons
- Raonic: groundgame and movement improved, but not to the level where he can challenge the top; not sure, he ever will either, he is not a natural athlete and might have hit the ceiling

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Post by noleisthebest on Tue Feb 03, 2015 11:11 pm

Autumnleaf wrote: Top 10 list mainly shows who does well in WTF, since there alone a player can beat 5 top 10 players in a row,while at other competitions a player doesn't even necessarily meets a top 10
And don't you think that's the toughest thing to do?
Especially when WTF was the best of 5.

Plus, that's where it's impossible to fix an easy draw for Nadal.

On the "youngsters" topic, the key is in physicality.

I wish commentators educated the audience on that particular aspect of modern game rather than just produce gossip/ worshipping material.

Right now, physical levels are so high that the player with best stamina (Nole) runs out of steam after only two sets.
That is a truly alarming fact.
What hope do then young players have? They've barely started their fitness conditioning...

Dimi looks most resilient in fact and quite good on grass, but his BH is a big weakness for the style of game he is playing.

So if they can't outlast they have to outblast.

Stan and Cilic did it last year, but struggle to keep consistency.

Who else is a shotmaker with a chance?

Only Nishi in a slam; seeing how fragile he is both physically and mentally his strongest optiong is in USO.

Wimbledon still gives the best opportunity to young players and those with skill... we'll see.

RG, Nadal's animal farm kingdom. Who can outlast the beast?
Will he be able to summon one more run like last year?

With him it's all about physicality.
Last year they even gave him a super easy draw, but I don't think he even needed it. He utterly devoured Ferrer and Murray.
Nole did well to push him to the brink in the final, it was simply too much for him.

So, it's again all in doctors' hands.

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Post by noleisthebest on Wed Feb 04, 2015 12:35 pm

Talking of top 10, here's what the rankings look post AO:

1 Djokovic, Novak (SRB) 13,045 0 18
2 Federer, Roger (SUI) 9,205 0 19
3 Nadal, Rafael (ESP) 5,745 0 19
4 Murray, Andy (GBR) 5,460 2 21
5 Nishikori, Kei (JPN) 5,205 0 21
6 Raonic, Milos (CAN) 4,845 2 22
7 Berdych, Tomas (CZE) 4,660 0 24
8 Cilic, Marin (CRO) 4,105 1 23
9 Wawrinka, Stan (SUI) 4,050 -5 19
10 Ferrer, David (ESP) 3,965 0 25
11 Dimitrov, Grigor (BUL) 3,465 0 21
12 Tsonga, Jo-Wilfried (FRA) 2,520 0 20
13 Gulbis, Ernests (LAT) 2,420 0 24


Murray back in the " big 4".

With Nadal losing points in AO, does this now mean he's got almost zero chance at being seeded number two for RG?

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Post by Tenez on Wed Feb 04, 2015 4:26 pm

Good point. Probably 0 chance. Would be great if your man and Nadal were to meet in the semi. Murray back to where he belongs...really.

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Post by luvsports! on Wed Feb 04, 2015 9:17 pm

How do you see the surprise GS winners and finalists (Nishi, Stan, Cilic) from last year doing this year Tenez?

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Post by Tenez on Thu Feb 05, 2015 12:42 am

Stan is playing well but he won't beat the top 4 or 5 so I see him between 9 and 5

Cilic is a complete unknown due to his injury.

Nishi has a chance to get into the top 4...but was disappointed by his match v STan in the AO.

None of then will win a slam this year. Cilic was teh most impressive but I think that was due to Fed probably not playing his best.

How do you see them yourself?

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Post by luvsports! on Thu Feb 05, 2015 9:22 pm

I think Stan can do well at the French, qf's at least. He can make some good points in the IW/M but has MC to defend.
If he can have a good clay season he should deffo be 5-8. 

Nishi will be similar imo.
Cilic for me I think will not do much.

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