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Rafa's 2015 draws

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Re: Rafa's 2015 draws

Post by summerblues on Thu Aug 23, 2018 2:37 am

Tenez wrote:The thing SB is that even when Nadal has a dead easy draw, it doesn;t appear so to most posters.
That is why I suggested this "picking game".  If one can consistently predict Rafa's opponents more accurately than random selection would allow, that would ultimately come close to proving it - one would not need to argue about whether or not specific opponents were easy or not.

But I agree with you, it is not easy to "prove" it this way - one would need to make fairly accurate draw predictions over time.

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Re: Rafa's 2015 draws

Post by summerblues on Thu Aug 23, 2018 2:45 am

Tenez wrote:To me it was rather clear that The USO was helping Nadal by providing a dead slow CC.
Yeah, but to be honest, I fail to get too excited about this too much.  Even if the USO does it, that is not really cheating.

If you are a tournament organizer, you have some discretion about the choice of the balls and surface.  And if you know Fed is likely to go deep irrespective of the conditions, while Rafa may not, and you also know that the audience wants to see them both go deep, who is to say you should not slow the surface down?

When Tiger was in his pomp, there was a lot of talk about "Tiger-proofing" golf courses to give the field a better chance against him.  Don't know if they actually did it, but that is just what tends to happen if one player gets too dominant.

That is not really cheating.  But rigging draws would be bona fide cheating, so proving that would be far more interesting.

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Re: Rafa's 2015 draws

Post by Slippy on Thu Aug 23, 2018 11:30 am

The US Open, were it rigging draws or messing with the court surface to get a favourable outcome, would clearly be doing so to favour Fed rather than Rafa. Fed hasn’t won the US Open for a decade and has only made two finals in that time. The USTA must be desperate for him to do better.

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Re: Rafa's 2015 draws

Post by raiders_of_the_lost_ark on Thu Aug 23, 2018 11:45 am

Slippy wrote:The US Open, were it rigging draws or messing with the court surface to get a favourable outcome, would clearly be doing so to favour Fed rather than Rafa. Fed hasn’t won the US Open for a decade and has only made two finals in that time. The USTA must be desperate for him to do better.

This year, yes. If they are looking for their Fedal finals, the courts need to be fast. Last year was a different story.

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Re: Rafa's 2015 draws

Post by Tenez on Thu Aug 23, 2018 10:10 pm

summerblues wrote:
Tenez wrote:To me it was rather clear that The USO was helping Nadal by providing a dead slow CC.
Yeah, but to be honest, I fail to get too excited about this too much.  Even if the USO does it, that is not really cheating.

If you are a tournament organizer, you have some discretion about the choice of the balls and surface.  And if you know Fed is likely to go deep irrespective of the conditions, while Rafa may not, and you also know that the audience wants to see them both go deep, who is to say you should not slow the surface down?

When Tiger was in his pomp, there was a lot of talk about "Tiger-proofing" golf courses to give the field a better chance against him.  Don't know if they actually did it, but that is just what tends to happen if one player gets too dominant.

That is not really cheating.  But rigging draws would be bona fide cheating, so proving that would be far more interesting.

Slowing down court is cheating. It;s allowing someone to win where typically he would not. If the TD makes sure the TDF has only downhills, then the fattest racer will get to win it.
Originally sport was about making a name of yourself, now they can pick and choose who they can promote.....which is killing the sport.

Rigging has happened, it is proven beyond reasonable doubt as discussed. However we cannot draw anything out of a single draw. Nadal has however had enough "lucky" draws in his career to be more than suspicious. Enough smoke to suspect a fire is going on.


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Re: Rafa's 2015 draws

Post by DEC1M7 on Thu Aug 23, 2018 11:53 pm

Tenez wrote:The thing SB is that even when Nadal has a dead easy draw, it doesn;t appear so to most posters.

 
You totally lost all credibility on this issue when you claimed Federer's run in of Chung and Berdych were both significantly harder opponents than Cilic in the Aus Open. Just shows regardless of who is facing who, you will just repeat the same verdict.
As for this year's USO, Nadal has been handed a easier draw than Federer. However if not anything this is proof the draw is not rigged, why on earth would the US Open want their most marketable player to draw Kyrgios in R3 and Djokovic in the QF. Would definitely be in their monetary interests to have Roger in the semis and final, common sense!

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Re: Rafa's 2015 draws

Post by Daniel on Fri Aug 24, 2018 12:19 am

Even I am starting to question these draws...

It's not one draw he;s getting lucky in. It's an awful lot.

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Re: Rafa's 2015 draws

Post by Daniel on Fri Aug 24, 2018 12:25 am

summerblues wrote:
Tenez wrote:The thing SB is that even when Nadal has a dead easy draw, it doesn;t appear so to most posters.
That is why I suggested this "picking game".

Well, I've picked Nadal's draws pretty accurately recently.  You've got to admit that Nadal's last 10 slam draws have been an utter joke v Fed's.

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Re: Rafa's 2015 draws

Post by DEC1M7 on Fri Aug 24, 2018 6:16 am

Daniel wrote:
summerblues wrote:
Tenez wrote:The thing SB is that even when Nadal has a dead easy draw, it doesn;t appear so to most posters.
That is why I suggested this "picking game".

Well, I've picked Nadal's draws pretty accurately recently.  You've got to admit that Nadal's last 10 slam draws have been an utter joke v Fed's.
Has it?

Draws in Slams Nadal entered since 2015:

2015 FO: Nadal gets Djokovic in QF (worst possible QF)
2015 Wimby: Nadal gets Murray in QF, Fed SF (ranked low so this was a fair draw)
2015 USO: Nadal gets Djokovic in QF (worst possible)
2016 AO: Verdasco R1 (loss), but comparatively easier QF draw in Stan (was 5th seed)
2016 FO: Nadal gets Djokovic in SF (worst possible: was 4th seed, so was earliest he could have drawn him)
2016 USO: Nadal gets Djokovic in SF (same as above)
2017 AO: Nadal gets Djokovic in SF (who was pre-tournament favourite when draw was made)
2017 FO: Nadal gets Djokovic in SF (was pre-tournament second favourite when draw was made)
2017 Wimby: Nadal gets Cilic in QF, Murray in SF (Cilic tough for QF)
2017 USO: Nadal gets Federer in SF (hardest possible SF on paper as 1st seed with Djokurray out, but became cakewalk)
2018 AO: Nadal gets Cilic in QF (djoko was completely injured, as was obvious from his interviews/training)
2018 FO: Avoided main threat Thiem until F (good draw)
2018 Wimby: Drew Del P in QF, Djokovic in SF
2018 USO: Nadal gets very good draw, avoids Djoko

I've put it in italics when I can make a strong argument that Nadal had a tough draw given his seeding. 8 out of last 14 were tough draws by my count. Nadal has not had the rub of the green at all in my opinion, the opposite in fact. Perhaps as a Nadal fan I'm inclined to worry about opponents and thus think his draw is harder?

Bear in mind 3 more things:
-I have seen occasions where the same player has been considered difficult/easy depending on whether they are facing Nadal or Fed. Apparently Djokovic was a good draw in the Wimby 2018 SF when he was fit, but difficult in Aus Open 2018 SF when he was totally crocked. Apparently Cilic was way easier as QF opponent than Chung/Berdych in AO 2018, give me a break.
-Another example of this is when NITB after Monte Carlo 2018 draw said Nadal had been protected specifically from Djokovic and Nishikori. In the very next event, Nadal drew Nishikori R3, Djokovic QF. Not a word from NITB about the draw.
-Latest USO draw is not great evidence for draw rigging, the point I made yesterday night. Fed is the most marketable player and they lose money if he goes out earlier. He has Kyrgios in R3 and Djokovic in QF.

Use critical thinking and common sense. Conspiracy theories are ok, but when the conductors of these apparent conspiracies would be hurting themselves, alarm bells should be ringing.

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