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Roland Garros 2014: THE DRAW IS OUT/Order of Play

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Who is going to win Roland Garros 2014?

33% 33% 
[ 3 ]
44% 44% 
[ 4 ]
22% 22% 
[ 2 ]
0% 0% 
[ 0 ]
0% 0% 
[ 0 ]
0% 0% 
[ 0 ]
0% 0% 
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Total Votes : 9

Re: Roland Garros 2014: THE DRAW IS OUT/Order of Play

Post by ... on Fri May 23, 2014 9:55 am

Roland Garros Live Draw stream:

http://www.rolandgarros.com/en_FR/news/articles/2014-05-23/201405231400829850570.html


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Re: Roland Garros 2014: THE DRAW IS OUT/Order of Play

Post by ... on Fri May 23, 2014 10:47 am

Draw ceremony just started. Serena will do men's and Nadal women's draw.

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Re: Roland Garros 2014: THE DRAW IS OUT/Order of Play

Post by Autumnleaf on Fri May 23, 2014 10:58 am

noleisthebest wrote:Draw ceremony just started. Serena will do men's and Nadal women's draw.

A match made in heaven!  Applause

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Re: Roland Garros 2014: THE DRAW IS OUT/Order of Play

Post by Autumnleaf on Fri May 23, 2014 11:02 am

noleisthebest wrote:Roland Garros Live Draw stream: "link"

Unbelievable! Because of copyright infringement problems it's not possible to watch that livestream (legally) from here! Not cool!  

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Re: Roland Garros 2014: THE DRAW IS OUT/Order of Play

Post by ... on Fri May 23, 2014 11:08 am


...

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Re: Roland Garros 2014: THE DRAW IS OUT/Order of Play

Post by ... on Fri May 23, 2014 11:14 am

Yikes

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Re: Roland Garros 2014: THE DRAW IS OUT/Order of Play

Post by Tenez on Fri May 23, 2014 11:14 am

Busy on a call this am...will catch up later....

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Re: Roland Garros 2014: THE DRAW IS OUT/Order of Play

Post by ... on Fri May 23, 2014 11:15 am

Tenez wrote:Busy on a call this am...will catch up later....

Keep calm and have a successful call! smiley

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Re: Roland Garros 2014: THE DRAW IS OUT/Order of Play

Post by summerblues on Fri May 23, 2014 11:32 am

Great draw for Roger. The rest looks reasonably balanced to me. Perhaps a touch harder for Mole than for Rafa, but not too sure about it.

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Re: Roland Garros 2014: THE DRAW IS OUT/Order of Play

Post by summerblues on Fri May 23, 2014 11:33 am

Argh...Mole....predictive text....

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Re: Roland Garros 2014: THE DRAW IS OUT/Order of Play

Post by ... on Fri May 23, 2014 11:34 am

As predicted....

Fed, Nishi in Nole's half, far away from Nadal.

Profected QFs:

Nadal-Ferrer (H2H 21:6)
Djokovic-Raonic (H2H 2:0)
Wawrinka-Murray (H2H 6:8)
Federer-Berdych (H2H 12:6)

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Re: Roland Garros 2014: THE DRAW IS OUT/Order of Play

Post by ... on Fri May 23, 2014 11:37 am

Nadal has got a joke of a draw... ROBBIE GINEPRI in round one!!!!!  Laugh Wah Grr

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Re: Roland Garros 2014: THE DRAW IS OUT/Order of Play

Post by ... on Fri May 23, 2014 11:44 am

summerblues wrote:Great draw for Roger.  The rest looks reasonably balanced to me. Perhaps a touch harder for Mole than for Rafa, but not too sure about it.

Who is Mole?
I see... He'd better be blind as a mole and not see his draw....or, just like a mole he'll have to dig twice as hard as Nadal to get to the final...yes...MOLEISTHEBEST!

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Re: Roland Garros 2014: THE DRAW IS OUT/Order of Play

Post by Autumnleaf on Fri May 23, 2014 11:48 am

Let's hope for such moments:

youtube.com/watch?v=PuM7jwQz5x0

 Wah

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Re: Roland Garros 2014: THE DRAW IS OUT/Order of Play

Post by Daniel on Fri May 23, 2014 11:51 am

It's not rigged, he's just stupidly lucky.

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Re: Roland Garros 2014: THE DRAW IS OUT/Order of Play

Post by ... on Fri May 23, 2014 12:04 pm

Some tough first round matches:

Wawrinka-GG Lopez
Dimitrov-Karlovic
Gasquet-Tomic

Nadal's draw is a complete joke....

http://www.rolandgarros.com/en_FR/scores/draws/ms/msdraw.pdf

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Re: Roland Garros 2014: THE DRAW IS OUT/Order of Play

Post by Autumnleaf on Fri May 23, 2014 12:06 pm

noleisthebest wrote:Nadal has got a joke of a draw... ROBBIE GINEPRI in round one!!!!!  Laugh Wah Grr

Well, he also got Thiem as a potential R2 (hope he's better after his sickness), Almagro potential R4. If he were in the form of the past few weeks, they could take sets off him. Here's to hope and an early upset!  redwine Plus, at least he did not get Berdych for potential QF which would be the equivalent of a w/o!

Djoko a bit unlucky with drawing Tsonga, who is the most dangerous opponent of that bracket. Other dangerous opponents for him of course a projected Raonic/ Nishikori.

Fed should make QF with his draw, though Gulbis could possibly upset him. Berdych will have a good chance in QF against Fed, should Berdych go so far which is not a foregone conclusion.

I don't dare to say much about the Wawrinka section. Big Grin  ROFL

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Re: Roland Garros 2014: THE DRAW IS OUT/Order of Play

Post by SayonaRa on Fri May 23, 2014 2:02 pm

I predict Warwri to reach semi after beating Murray. I think he overall performs better in slam matches than in other lesser tourneys. One of these very robust-looking guys who never has a fitness problem, like Berdych.

Anyway, doesn't  matter what the draw says in RG. My crystal ball says the only one with a real potential to dethrone the king is Djoko in the final. The rest just go thru the motion. So nadal will still lift the trophy if Djoko doesn't make it to the final. Vamos Ferrer, Almagro, Seppi, Fognini et al, please prove me wrong.

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Re: Roland Garros 2014: THE DRAW IS OUT/Order of Play

Post by Tenez on Fri May 23, 2014 2:41 pm

I think it is a particularly lucky draw for Nadal.

We know he has been struggling this year v the power players (Rao, Gulbis) as well as the quick hands ones (Dolgo Nishi)...and the 4 of them are down the draw. You might say that Ferrer and Almagro have beaten him but the Almagro was extremely lucky to comeback in a match he shoudl have lost in 2 had Nadal not messed it up and Ferrer certainly can represent a danger for Nadal but we know Ferrer is not going to pull an amazing tennis for 3 sets. He was crushed last year at the FO and Nadal doesn't fear him like he can fear someoine who takes the ball early. So teh real danger for Nadal is simply Murray in the Semi but again we know Murray is probably likely to lose before and his fitness will never sustain 3 sets v Nadal....he did not last 10 games v Nadal in Rome! To me this is the ideal draw for Nadal. Guys like Dimi won't do it and Stan will probably lose before getting there and if he does he will have 0 chance v Nadal. Lightning never strikes twice on the same spot!

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Re: Roland Garros 2014: THE DRAW IS OUT/Order of Play

Post by SayonaRa on Fri May 23, 2014 3:02 pm

That's just my point, T, no matter how you want to slice it nadal will stroll to the final. Only djoko can potentially stop him.

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Re: Roland Garros 2014: THE DRAW IS OUT/Order of Play

Post by Tenez on Fri May 23, 2014 3:24 pm

And we know that Federer is unlikely to beat Nadal on clay but again who is Nadal worst opponent? Djoko and who is Djoko's worst opponent? Federer....this brings us to the 2008-2011 4 year period where Nadal did not have to bother with Djoko as he was sent on Fed's corner.

I am not saying it's rigged again...but I am certainly not saying it's not rigged...either! Let's say Nadal is bizarrely lucky again!

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Re: Roland Garros 2014: THE DRAW IS OUT/Order of Play

Post by SayonaRa on Fri May 23, 2014 3:32 pm

Yes, but 2014 is another year. Djoko is fresher & better on clay now. I don't see Fed beating a fresh Nole on clay this time. But as we know, anything is possible. On paper the battle is between nadal & Djoko.

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Re: Roland Garros 2014: THE DRAW IS OUT/Order of Play

Post by Tenez on Fri May 23, 2014 5:00 pm

Yes and to be fair I said before that I do not see anyone beating Nadal before the final. However I would have loved to see Nadal facing players we now he is scared off. I think it affects his mind and his performance considerably...as we saw in those Madrid and Rome finals!

He has not much confidence and a tough draw would not have helped him. Now he has it all set up for him to build on that confidence and arrice fresher than Djoko in the final!

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Re: Roland Garros 2014: THE DRAW IS OUT/Order of Play

Post by SayonaRa on Fri May 23, 2014 5:14 pm

Hmm, I don't think he'll be fresher than Djoko. Somehow it also feels like something BIG is going to explode. Isn't that why Blueclay, Amri, Lydian et al have not reemerged? We maybe witnessing new history being made soon in RG!!  Laugh  Laugh

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Re: Roland Garros 2014: THE DRAW IS OUT/Order of Play

Post by Tenez on Fri May 23, 2014 8:01 pm

Is that true? Lydian has not reemerged on v2?

Amri is not happy with the way he is treated here...so please be kind to him..if ever he comes back! We like diversity here, don't we?  Hug

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Re: Roland Garros 2014: THE DRAW IS OUT/Order of Play

Post by paulcz on Fri May 23, 2014 9:21 pm

The draw is not bad. The nicer way to semi has Fed, Berdych will surely not beat Fed on clay, unless Fed is injured.

If I can prognose a bit, then my tips for semi are Nadal (I would wish that Feru, but no way he can do it) vs. Stan and Nole with Fed. Hopefully this is going to happen. If yes, then I see good chances for Stan he can go through Nadal. I just believe him currently. Not by  chance, Stan with Nole are my favorite players. So, the start is coming soon and I really looking forward to seeing how our clown chickens out on the court with Stan. Then I guess that our clown is going to have a MTO already in the first set. That would be a  comedy again.

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Re: Roland Garros 2014: THE DRAW IS OUT/Order of Play

Post by Tenez on Fri May 23, 2014 10:27 pm

Watching this resume of the Madrid final it is clear that Nishi could have beaten Nadal in best of 5 had he been in form...and on the side of the draw. This clip exposes so much nadal's game limitation. An of form Djoko at the FO13 exposed Nadal too just to fall at the last hurdle. Nishi is actually more clinical than Djoko on this clip.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=27AoAr4IsYk

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Re: Roland Garros 2014: THE DRAW IS OUT/Order of Play

Post by SayonaRa on Fri May 23, 2014 10:28 pm

Tenez wrote:Is that true? Lydian has not reemerged on v2?

Amri is not happy with the way he is treated here...so please be kind to him..if ever he comes back! We like diversity here, don't we?  Hug
Actually Lydian did post but one comment after the Rome final, even though nadal won't have defeated a healthy Nishi. Gone again since then.........

I've said this before, I don't believe Amri left because any OTF member offended her. (S)he left because nadal is down, ATM. This is a very normal and oft-seen fan behaviour, which I see again and again in Bleacher Report and v2. It happens to all fans in fact. When Fed loses, a large number of his fans also disappear from the forum; now that nadal is losing on clay as never before, many of his fans also feel deflated with no motivation to comment. Amri is no different. It ain't fun when you can't brag about your idol.

But when nadal is on top his fans are so bullet-proof with joy nothing you say will make them go away. Don't you remember when nadal had that "blistering" victory over Fed last AO SF Amri was so elated (s)he remained indifferent and not bothered the slightest bit when truffin posted something about her knowing nothing about tennis. 

So T, relax. You know that we've been more tolerant than v2. Amri will be back when her idol wins his next big tournament. Otherwise there's nothing anyone in OTF can do about it.  Hug

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Re: Roland Garros 2014: THE DRAW IS OUT/Order of Play

Post by Daniel on Fri May 23, 2014 10:51 pm

Amri hasn't exactly treated anyone else with any respect, sadly...

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Re: Roland Garros 2014: THE DRAW IS OUT/Order of Play

Post by Daniel on Fri May 23, 2014 10:54 pm

Tenez wrote:And we know that Federer is unlikely to beat Nadal on clay but again who is Nadal worst opponent? Djoko and who is Djoko's worst opponent? Federer....this brings us to the 2008-2011 4 year period where Nadal did not have to bother with Djoko as he was sent on Fed's corner.

I am not saying it's rigged again...but I am certainly not saying it's not rigged...either! Let's say Nadal is bizarrely lucky again!

Well the chance of it happening 4 times in a row is only 1 in 16.  But up to now, Nadal has rode his luck something more than that, but certainly not exactly breaking into unrealistic.  He is just lucky... and awful.

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Re: Roland Garros 2014: THE DRAW IS OUT/Order of Play

Post by Tenez on Fri May 23, 2014 11:15 pm

FedererKing wrote:Amri hasn't exactly treated anyone else with any respect, sadly...
I believe he has here.

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Re: Roland Garros 2014: THE DRAW IS OUT/Order of Play

Post by Tenez on Fri May 23, 2014 11:20 pm

FedererKing wrote:
Tenez wrote:And we know that Federer is unlikely to beat Nadal on clay but again who is Nadal worst opponent? Djoko and who is Djoko's worst opponent? Federer....this brings us to the 2008-2011 4 year period where Nadal did not have to bother with Djoko as he was sent on Fed's corner.

I am not saying it's rigged again...but I am certainly not saying it's not rigged...either! Let's say Nadal is bizarrely lucky again!

Well the chance of it happening 4 times in a row is only 1 in 16.  But up to now, Nadal has rode his luck something more than that, but certainly not exactly breaking into unrealistic.  He is just lucky... and awful.


From 2008 to 2011 (4 years) he was never in the same draw draw at any slam bar the FO! That is 1 in 4096 chance! not 16. And only when a study raised that out that finally Djoko and Nadal found themselves in the same draw!

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Re: Roland Garros 2014: THE DRAW IS OUT/Order of Play

Post by ... on Fri May 23, 2014 11:41 pm

SR wrote:
I've said this before, I don't believe Amri left because any OTF member offended her. (S)he left because nadal is down, ATM. This is a very normal and oft-seen fan behaviour, which I see again and again in Bleacher Report and v2. It happens to all fans in fact. When Fed loses, a large number of his fans also disappear from the forum; now that nadal is losing on clay as never before, many of his fans also feel deflated with no motivation to comment. Amri is no different. It ain't fun when you can't brag about your idol.
But when nadal is on top his fans are so bullet-proof with joy nothing you say will make them go away. Don't you remember when nadal had that "blistering" victory over Fed last AO SF Amri was so elated (s)he remained indifferent and not bothered the slightest bit when truffin posted something about her knowing nothing about tennis. 
So T, relax. You know that we've been more tolerant than v2. Amri will be back when her idol wins his next big tournament. Otherwise there's nothing anyone in OTF can do about it.  Hug

I don't know why you still  keep referring to Amri as a woman as he clearly said he wasn't more than once.
I know you mentioned your "instinct", and even "tolerance" , but for some reason every time you come here you have to drag that in. It's obvious why you do, and it's not good.
If you've got nothing else to say, than please stop mentioning Amri. If he wants to come back he will, if not he won't.
I couldn't care less either way.
It's better to have a few quality posters than endless verbal diarrhoea which is nothing more than venting out personal frustrations.

Not long ago, you all seem to get on pretty well in this thread (some under different names)....again, it was to have a personal go, this time against rotla and myself.

http://ourtennisforum.forumotion.co.uk/t114-hypocrisy-on-otf

SR wrote:Hold it wow, first, I salute your honesty and clout and
thank you for this gutsy post.
I just wanted to add raiders to your list of hypocrites.
Raiders claims: “Now control it here mikey. I know its very
exhilarating to see Murray win, but
doesn't mean you start to insult other posters. This forum does allows free
speech, but no tolerance to personal insults.”
http://ourtennisforum.forumotion.co.uk/t109p250-us-open-mens-final  
OMG!! But it’s OK for him to personally insult my language
with: “You (SR) need to get command of the language English”on amrit's article.    
It so happens that I elected not to stoop to level
of radiers’s double-standard and hot air in his personal insult of me bc I’m in
the midst of closing a chapter in a book manuscript due for submission next
month. (Short of time and always late.) Yes, it’s a (text)book written in
English and to be published next year by Brill Publishers.
So raiders, get this: my command of English is fine. It is actually
superior to yours UNLESS you have completed a PH.D written in English? Have
you?? Regardless, this is not about my personal records but the fact that
raiders attacked me while turning around to lecture another poster about “no
tolerance to personal insults.” HY-PO-CRITE!!
Wow, I agree and support all of what you voiced in this post
and elsewhere about the double standard of this forum’s key posters. You
practically took that woofie part out of my mouth re NITB. You should be proud of this
ruthlessly honest post. Why delete it?
As for me, the stench of hypocrisy is too much. I’m making
this my last post here. No hard feelings though. I understand. Nobody is
perfect. Just want to say my last words. Sayonara and best wishes to all.    
And lastly wow  

So, stick to tennis, please...it's a much nicer thing to talk about...

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Re: Roland Garros 2014: THE DRAW IS OUT/Order of Play

Post by SayonaRa on Sat May 24, 2014 12:16 am

Oh, I'm not allowed to change my mind? Ok, sue me.

I thought l'd let bygone be bygone and moved on. I'm sorry to see you haven't but still hurting and holding an old grudge. And look who's the one with a big post NOT talking tennis? Laugh

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Re: Roland Garros 2014: THE DRAW IS OUT/Order of Play

Post by summerblues on Sat May 24, 2014 12:27 am

paulcz wrote:The draw is not bad. The nicer way to semi has Fed, Berdych will surely not beat Fed on clay, unless Fed is injured.
That is exactly how I see it.  Fed has a very nice draw, but the rest is reasonably well balanced.

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Re: Roland Garros 2014: THE DRAW IS OUT/Order of Play

Post by summerblues on Sat May 24, 2014 12:39 am

Tenez wrote:Did Fed tank in Rome? Diffiuclt to say. He says his family pushed him out and forced him to play. His pre match interview does not show a strong motivation. He beats Chardy 61 in first set to reassure himself his tennis is still there, makes it a tough 3 setter for the crowd, has even MP...and bows out to rejoin his family asap.
I doubt he outright tanked - after all he only bowed out in Rd 1 because of that phenomenal passing shot by Chardy.  If Chardy had netted it, Fed would have been in Rd 2.

But I do not think Fed went to Rome to push himself hard either.  I imagine he learned two things at Monte Carlo.  First, that he was in pretty good form.  Second, that the early season was catching up with him and he was getting tired.  He knows that the stretch from RG through Wimbledon and then the rest of summer will be busy, so having light schedule in April and May was not too bad.

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Re: Roland Garros 2014: THE DRAW IS OUT/Order of Play

Post by summerblues on Sat May 24, 2014 12:51 am

summerblues wrote:
noleisthebest wrote:So after this match: Nishi, Dolgo, Murray, Fed....all in Nole's half in RG!
noleisthebest wrote:Nadal will have Gulbis,  Lopez, Robredo, Youzhny, Granollers and Berdych..
That is 10 predictions there.  Let's see how it goes. smiley
You got 4 out of 10 correct.

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Re: Roland Garros 2014: THE DRAW IS OUT/Order of Play

Post by summerblues on Sat May 24, 2014 1:22 am

In the comfort of my home on a Friday night, I am going through the draw in more detail.  Here is what the route to the title could look like for top 4:

NadalWawrinkaFedererDjokovic
R1GinepriGarcia-LopezLackoSousa
R2ThiemMannarinoQualifierChardy
R3Pospisil/GabashviliLopezTursunovCilic
R4Haas/AlmagroFognini/MonfilsYouzhny/GulbisTsonga
QFFerrer/DimitrovMurray/GasquetBerdychRaonic/Nishikori
SFWawrinka/MurrayNadalDjokovicFederer
FDjokovicDjokovicNadalNadal
No matter how I look at it, Fed's draw looks the best.  The only two guys that look even remotely like threats are Gulbis and Berdych.  Gulbis appears to be in good form but he is generally so inconsistent that I cannot see him getting to R4 and then beating Roger there.  Berdych has been out of form lately.

Can Roger lose before the SF?  Sure he can, but he will have to play fairly poorly to do so.

The draws for the other three strike me as roughly comparable.  If Andy is playing well, Stan's draw could end up being hardest of the four.  On the other hand, Andy on clay courts is a question mark, and if he loses early, that could make Stan's draw look quite friendly.

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Re: Roland Garros 2014: THE DRAW IS OUT/Order of Play

Post by Tenez on Sat May 24, 2014 4:58 am

summerblues wrote:
Tenez wrote:Did Fed tank in Rome? Diffiuclt to say. He says his family pushed him out and forced him to play. His pre match interview does not show a strong motivation. He beats Chardy 61 in first set to reassure himself his tennis is still there, makes it a tough 3 setter for the crowd, has even MP...and bows out to rejoin his family asap.
I doubt he outright tanked - after all he only bowed out in Rd 1 because of that phenomenal passing shot by Chardy.  If Chardy had netted it, Fed would have been in Rd 2.

But I do not think Fed went to Rome to push himself hard either.  I imagine he learned two things at Monte Carlo.  First, that he was in pretty good form.  Second, that the early season was catching up with him and he was getting tired.  He knows that the stretch from RG through Wimbledon and then the rest of summer will be busy, so having light schedule in April and May was not too bad.
So you agree with me...he tanked! Winking

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Re: Roland Garros 2014: THE DRAW IS OUT/Order of Play

Post by Tenez on Sat May 24, 2014 5:04 am

summerblues wrote:In the comfort of my home on a Friday night, I am going through the draw in more detail.  Here is what the route to the title could look like for top 4:

NadalWawrinkaFedererDjokovic
R1GinepriGarcia-LopezLackoSousa
R2ThiemMannarinoQualifierChardy
R3Pospisil/GabashviliLopezTursunovCilic
R4Haas/AlmagroFognini/MonfilsYouzhny/GulbisTsonga
QFFerrer/DimitrovMurray/GasquetBerdychRaonic/Nishikori
SFWawrinka/MurrayNadalDjokovicFederer
FDjokovicDjokovicNadalNadal
Excelllent table. May I invite you to have a second look at Nadal's draw!!! This one is the easiest by far!

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Re: Roland Garros 2014: THE DRAW IS OUT/Order of Play

Post by summerblues on Sat May 24, 2014 5:32 am

Tenez wrote:May I invite you to have a second look at Nadal's draw!!! This one is the easiest by far!
I disagree.  I think it is quite comparable to Nole's draw.  Maybe a touch easier, but even that is not obvious.

As we usually say - the draw mostly matters from QF onwards:

QF:  I think Ferrer is realistically harder for Rafa than either Nishi or Rao.  Will Ferrer beat him?  Very likely not.  But neither would Rao or Nishi.  Rao just does not have the game to do it.  Nishi, I grant you, has been playing well this season and has the game to trouble Rafa.  But he has also been struggling with injury most of this year.  I would be shocked if come QF - after four best of 5 matches - he was fit enough to beat Rafa.

SF: I think either Andy or Stan would have a better chance to beat Rafa than Federer.  Roger will not beat him at RG.  Andy - in spite of his poor clay court pedigree - could do it if all clicks.  Stan is less likely, but if Stan of AO turns up, then he could do it too,

Even if you disagree and think Rafa's draw is easier than Nole's, it is not easier by a large margin.  And it is certainly harder than Fed's draw.

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Re: Roland Garros 2014: THE DRAW IS OUT/Order of Play

Post by ... on Sat May 24, 2014 8:48 am

Thanks for the chart SB, makes the draw much easier to analyse and compare. I'll have to look at Murray's later.

In my opinion, Nadal has easier draw than Nole in all rounds.
If they were even as you seem to suggest, then Nadal would be more than happy to swap with Nole, somehow, I don't think he would.

Robbie Ginepri, his first round opponent is ranked, from memory 300+ (and I only know it from a text I read on tennis.com mentioning his wildcard).
Would Nadal prefer Sousa or GG Lopez?
Unless a miracle a la Darcis happen (and clay does not have speed variation like grass in weeks 1 and 2 in Wimbledon...) Ginepri is going to be nothing more than a light practice session for Nadal.
Not so for Wawrinka and GG Lopez.
An upset is easily possible there, as GG has beaten Stan TWICE on clay. He is in excellent form and pushed Nole to three difficult sets in MC recently after Nole has lost all of 3 games in his first two matches there.
So...looking at his half, his projected SF opponent who beat him in AO final gets a very tough first match, and Nadal gets a nice  cupcake  with a  cup of tea .
In this physical era, we now have to consider not only second week matches, but first as well.
We all know how physical Nadal is and that that is his only advantage over everybody. Look at what Wilander says about it, he is dead right!

"Heading into the French Open, it's more exciting, that regular tour probably benefits from having one superstar that's cleaning up everything, or maybe a rivalry. But the French Open and the other Slams benefit from having no clear-cut favourite. That's the way it used to be, and I think it's better. I don't think we want to go there and ask ourselves: Is Nadal going to win a ninth time? That just doesn't excite me at all. It's much more exciting to think that Djokovic is the favourite or that (Roger) Federer has a chance.
There's all this scar tissue he can reason with and say, 'Hold on, I won Madrid, this is the French Open, I'm fresher than ever.' He's going to put a little less pressure on himself but still go in with a sense of confidence knowing it's five sets. And he can think, 'What are they going to do? How are they going to beat me in two hours? That's never going to happen. I have four hours to solve this problem.' That gives him confidence right away."


On the other hand, unlike US veteran Ginepri, Nole's 1st round opponent, Sousa is a young, fresh and fit decent clay-courter with a very powerful FH, a bit like Bellucci, who can really make your life difficult if you let him into a match. Definitely someone who will sap Nole of energy if he's not careful.

If the organisers tried to make Nole's quarter/draw tougher, they would have had a difficult job!
Tsonga is a last year SF-ist and someone who had match points agains Nole in RG two years ago. In a 5 setter. Again, a potential exhausting match for Nole in more than one way.
Rao/Nishi...in the QF, I feel sorry for both players having to play in that round, the two young players that had a chance to make some serious points in the second week have to knock each other out. Had Nishi been in Nadal's quarter, which I predicted he wouldn't....
I don't know who is going to win that match, but either will be a very tough opponent for Nole for different reasons.
What to say of Fed...the only guy who actually has a real chance of beating Nole of all potential SF-ists is in his half! And also has an easy draw and will get there fresher than Nole.
In short, Nole will have to work twice as hard to arrive to the final and when he gets there he won't be as fresh as Nadal.
And that's what the organisers wanted in the first place. It's happened so many times before...think USO final 2010 as one of many examples...

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Re: Roland Garros 2014: THE DRAW IS OUT/Order of Play

Post by Tenez on Sat May 24, 2014 9:28 am

summerblues wrote:....
QF:  I think Ferrer is realistically harder for Rafa than either Nishi or Rao.  Will Ferrer beat him?  Very likely not.  But neither would Rao or Nishi.  Rao just does not have the game to do it.  Nishi, I grant you, has been playing well this season and has the game to trouble Rafa.  But he has also been struggling with injury most of this year.  I would be shocked if come QF - after four best of 5 matches - he was fit enough to beat Rafa.

SF: I think either Andy or Stan would have a better chance to beat Rafa than Federer.  Roger will not beat him at RG.  Andy - in spite of his poor clay court pedigree - could do it if all clicks.  Stan is less likely, but if Stan of AO turns up, then he could do it too,

Even if you disagree and think Rafa's draw is easier than Nole's, it is not easier by a large margin.  And it is certainly harder than Fed's draw.
It matters before the QF with Nadal. He has struggled before in the past. He is actually very nervous, especially with teh players he can't get rhythm and can't extend rallies. But also cause Federer in in Djoko's side and we know this is Djoko's toughest opponent. Nishi was certainly the player in form this clay season and once again who has him? Djoko! No I am afraid it's not "slightly" but clearly in Nadal's favour...you might not think so, I can assure you that Nadal does!

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Re: Roland Garros 2014: THE DRAW IS OUT/Order of Play

Post by ... on Sat May 24, 2014 10:21 am

Tenez wrote:Watching this resume of the Madrid final it is clear that Nishi could have beaten Nadal in best of 5 had he been in form...and on the side of the draw. This clip exposes so much nadal's game limitation. An of form Djoko at the FO13 exposed Nadal too just to fall at the last hurdle. Nishi is actually more clinical than Djoko on this clip.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=27AoAr4IsYk

Absolutely!
If Nishi had Nole's fitness he'd bagel Nadal no problem, he is exceptionally fast, I have never seen Nadal look so clueless as in that match.
Nishi is a great talent.

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Re: Roland Garros 2014: THE DRAW IS OUT/Order of Play

Post by ... on Sat May 24, 2014 11:20 am

Two clips from Fed's practice sessions in RG with Stan and Dimi. Interesting he chooses SBH-ers!






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Re: Roland Garros 2014: THE DRAW IS OUT/Order of Play

Post by Daniel on Sat May 24, 2014 11:26 am

Tenez wrote:
FedererKing wrote:
Tenez wrote:And we know that Federer is unlikely to beat Nadal on clay but again who is Nadal worst opponent? Djoko and who is Djoko's worst opponent? Federer....this brings us to the 2008-2011 4 year period where Nadal did not have to bother with Djoko as he was sent on Fed's corner.

I am not saying it's rigged again...but I am certainly not saying it's not rigged...either! Let's say Nadal is bizarrely lucky again!

Well the chance of it happening 4 times in a row is only 1 in 16.  But up to now, Nadal has rode his luck something more than that, but certainly not exactly breaking into unrealistic.  He is just lucky... and awful.


From 2008 to 2011 (4 years) he was never in the same draw draw at any slam bar the FO! That is 1 in 4096 chance! not 16. And only when a study raised that out that finally Djoko and Nadal found themselves in the same draw!

1 in 4096 is still not impossible, it's just unlikely.  It doesn't prove a cover up or a rigged draw.  It merely illustrates how lucky Nadal is.  People win the lottery every week at 14 million to 1...  it doesn't make the draw rigged.

This would have been solved if the seeded positions were set in stone, and alternated from Slam to Slam year on year, not just random to each side.

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Re: Roland Garros 2014: THE DRAW IS OUT/Order of Play

Post by Autumnleaf on Sat May 24, 2014 12:20 pm

Tenez wrote: We like diversity here, don't we?  Hug

Diversity is nice and very welcome to inspire discussion. The problem is that sane Nadal fans are very hard to come by. It isn't easy to be his fan, it takes some degree of delusion and self-deception.

Lots of doom and gloom in here on a sunny day. (well, sunny up until now, that is smiley  I agree that Nadal got lucky again, not as lucky as he possibly could be, but still lucky. I also wish he had got Nishikori in his quarter and Gulbis in 4 R. Chances are small that Almagro and Ferrer can repeat their feat, unfortunately. And Ginepri in R1 is a bad joke. He'll struggle to win games. Why couldn't he draw Klizan instead? He could have been a dangerous R1 opponent. Sad

I will still hope for an upset, knowing these hopes are very likely misplaced and will be disappointed again.

Now a question to everybody who feels Nadal getting the lucky draws everytime is anything else but a coincidence:

Why would the organizers be interested in easing his way to a 9th (!) RG title? I understand that they would want the high seeds go far in the draw, especially when they are as popular as Nadal seems to be. But imho, to rekindle interest in RG, they need another winner. And if anybody but Djokovic makes the final, almost no need to watch the probable ensuing beatdown. RG organizers should still have nightmares of 2008. Easing the way for Fed and having him possibly fresh against a possibly more stretched Djoko, increases the danger of a Fedal final. Which is the kind of final that for most fans would hold the least suspense and even the danger of a beatdown which would be painful to watch.

Maybe some of you can help to shed some light on this issue?

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Re: Roland Garros 2014: THE DRAW IS OUT/Order of Play

Post by ... on Sat May 24, 2014 1:16 pm

Autumnleaf wrote:
Now a question to everybody who feels Nadal getting the lucky draws everytime is anything else but a coincidence:
Why would the organizers be interested in easing his way to a 9th (!) RG title? I understand that they would want the high seeds go far in the draw, especially when they are as popular as Nadal seems to be. But imho, to rekindle interest in RG, they need another winner. And if anybody but Djokovic makes the final, almost no need to watch the probable ensuing beatdown. RG organizers should still have nightmares of 2008. Easing the way for Fed and having him possibly fresh against a possibly more stretched Djoko, increases the danger of a Fedal final. Which is the kind of final that for most fans would hold the least suspense and even the danger of a beatdown which would be painful to watch.
Maybe some of you can help to shed some light on this issue?
Easy....the answer is $$$.
Where does the prize money come from?  certainly not from me paying £79 a year for my tennistv subscription, so it's the sponsors...Nike, Babolat...
Professional sport/tennis is a big business. Why would they bite the hand that feeds them?
They want him to win 9th, 10th, 11th time...as long as possible, really!
Nadal has singlehadedly (I wish...) revived Babolat as a struggling old family business. Look at it now...all the women in my club have his yellow/black racquet...
Nadal was recognised as a cashcow early on by Nike and Fedal was born, or should I say - manufactured. Part of the process was making sure Nadal gets to finals on grass and hard courts as well as clay.
Nole was unfortunately a few years late with his appearance and had to pay a heavy price for it, either that or it was his haircut...

http://ourtennisforum.forumotion.co.uk/t20-draw-fixing-an-official-study

I believe discussion on this thread when I posted it on v2 led to some of us getting kicked out soonafter that. I reposted the article here, minus the comments from v2 (that thread is probably still there if you want to see the comments)
That is one very interesting study which eventually led to ending Nadal's "lucky" draw trend at the time. If you haven't already seen it, have a look with an open mind, it's very interesting.
Amazing Nadal has actually never played Nole there in the SF, unlike Fed.
I believe Nadal would have not won USO 2010 had he had Nole in his half of the draw.
If I am correct, even in 2009 when Delpo won it, Federer had Nole in the SF.

As for the upset, we all hope for one, but the chances are very slim...all Nadal's potential opponents in the first three rounds have been either injured for a long time (Pospisil/Haas) or just come back from injury recently (Haas/Thiem). How "lucky" for Nadal....
Finally re: Nadal fans, the one one we have/had was actually quite admirable in the way he held his own against all of us here.

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Re: Roland Garros 2014: THE DRAW IS OUT/Order of Play

Post by ... on Sat May 24, 2014 1:31 pm

Order of play out for tomorrow:



Fed in action. Berdych, Tsonga, Raonic as well.

An interesting match:
Isner-Pierre-Herbert
I haven't seen Herbert since his last year's Bercy edition and really look forward to seeing him again. Hopefully, home crowd will lift him up again, ALLEZ!!!

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Re: Roland Garros 2014: THE DRAW IS OUT/Order of Play

Post by ... on Sat May 24, 2014 1:35 pm

raiders_of_the_lost_ark wrote:
gallery play wrote:
Tenez wrote:Easy to guess who voted what!  Laugh 
Definitly!
And you'll probably recognize my vote too Winking  Plenty of arguments against my vote but i want to mix it up a little


It's ON!!. I'll send the matches of the day as soon as the schedule for the next day comes.

Come on, rotla!!! diva

PS
I can do adding up of points if/when you get busy along the way...

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