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The Truth about the Australian Open Final (from ruansfedererblog)

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Post by DEC1M8 on Mon Feb 10, 2014 11:56 pm

Paul wrote:When returner caught your serve pace and owns you on the court then you  need to serve just differently.  I played many matches against opponent who returned my flat fast serves much better than high kicked serve. Then it is better to serve just with the kick. You just need to change the serve and pace of the game. If you played some competitive tennis matches, then you would surely understand.

So you think the fact he had a 'small back strain' (your words, not mine), and then started slowing his serve down below 100mph is a total coincidence?
And if you watch the match, Nadal did not even put any topspin onto the ball, he was not serving kick serves. Just watch the match, he was slicing balls in very slowly, not kicking it with topspin.
The idea that Nadal would suddenly decide to use the tactic of serving below 100mph for the first time in his career, and coincidentally have a back strain is just ludicrous.

Stan had 22, 27, 35, 24 total returning errors in each sets.
This is total nonsense.
There weren't even 35 points on the Nadal serve in set 3, how on earth could he make 35 errors.

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Post by paulcz on Tue Feb 11, 2014 12:09 am

Julia Santamaria wrote:
Paul wrote:When returner caught your serve pace and owns you on the court then you  need to serve just differently.  I played many matches against opponent who returned my flat fast serves much better than high kicked serve. Then it is better to serve just with the kick. You just need to change the serve and pace of the game. If you played some competitive tennis matches, then you would surely understand.

So you think the fact he had a 'small back strain' (your words, not mine), and then started slowing his serve down below 100mph is a total coincidence?
And if you watch the match, Nadal did not even put any topspin onto the ball, he was not serving kick serves. Just watch the match, he was slicing balls in very slowly, not kicking it with topspin.
The idea that Nadal would suddenly decide to use the tactic of serving below 100mph for the first time in his career, and coincidentally have a back strain is just ludicrous.

Stan had 22, 27, 35, 24 total returning errors in each sets.
This is total nonsense.
There weren't even 35 points on the Nadal serve in set 3, how on earth could he make 35 errors.

You are right, these numbers show return points. Sorry for that. I was just mislead by inserting one line in the chart.
So, these figures show the return points. Interisting is the third set which says that Stan had just one third succesful returns 12/35, which is about the same as he had in the first set 8/22. So, where is the serve speed effect? Try to look at that. I need to go perhaps deservedly into horizontal position. Good night and keep open eyes.

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Post by noleisthebest on Tue Feb 11, 2014 12:12 am

Amri, had Stan lost his composure (and the match, like many times before) which could have so easily happened as he even choked serving for the first set and went 00:40 down, would you be going to all these lengths of trying to explain Nadal's injury?

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Post by Daniel on Tue Feb 11, 2014 12:16 am

noleisthebest wrote:Amri, had Stan lost his composure (and the match, like many times before) which could have so easily happened as he even choked serving for the first set and went 00:40 down, would you be going to all these lengths of trying to explain  Nadal's injury?

No.  And if Nadal had won the first set, there wouldn't have been any injury time out in the second.  Wah

He lost, and now we get to watch it again and again, while nadal fans whinge and make sad excuses.  Magic 


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Post by DEC1M8 on Tue Feb 11, 2014 12:18 am

Paul wrote:Interisting is the third set which says that Stan had just one third succesful returns 12/35
What? That is absolute nonsense, there's no way Stan made 23 errors from service return and only got 12 back in play; once again this is just misinformed.

which is about the same as he had in the first set 8/22.
So, where is the serve speed effect?
Well the stat is nonsense. According to your stats, Wawrinka made only 8 returns on the Nadal serve back into play- but he won more than 8 points on the Nadal serve in the first set?
It simply can't be right.

Before you go to bed consider our two positions:
a) Your position- Nadal had a back injury, but minor. Nadal also served below 100mph after the MTO, as part of a tactic to 'keep the rallies in play' (as you said). And these two things, Nadal serving at below 100mph and the back injury are a coincidence
b) Nadal served at below 100mph in the first time in his career, because he had a back injury.

Now which do you think is more likely? Why would Nadal start slicing in serves at 94mph as a tactic? It's not as if he was putting huge topspin, it was clear he was rolling in the serves with a slice.

Now you came to the option a) (ie it's a coincidence) and then went on to insult me by saying that me choosing option b) means I don't know anything about tennis.
Right?

NITB, I don't know hypothetically, but I am pretty sure that Paul is wrong, and Nadal was not using the slow serve as a tactic, and actually had back issues.

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Post by paulcz on Tue Feb 11, 2014 12:23 am

Julia Santamaria wrote:
Paul wrote:When returner caught your serve pace and owns you on the court then you  need to serve just differently.  I played many matches against opponent who returned my flat fast serves much better than high kicked serve. Then it is better to serve just with the kick. You just need to change the serve and pace of the game. If you played some competitive tennis matches, then you would surely understand.

So you think the fact he had a 'small back strain' (your words, not mine), and then started slowing his serve down below 100mph is a total coincidence?
And if you watch the match, Nadal did not even put any topspin onto the ball, he was not serving kick serves. Just watch the match, he was slicing balls in very slowly, not kicking it with topspin.
The idea that Nadal would suddenly decide to use the tactic of serving below 100mph for the first time in his career, and coincidentally have a back strain is just ludicrous.

Stan had 22, 27, 35, 24 total returning errors in each sets.
This is total nonsense.
There weren't even 35 points on the Nadal serve in set 3, how on earth could he make 35 errors.

My eyes start to be quite heavy, but a mention to Nadal serve. His kick dropped due to an intentionally slower swing, but his serve grip and body swing is just do not used to flat hittting. So less spin, but no way he hit the balls flat. Just he knows that left hand gives him an advantage of a kick from the different side, less or more kick, but still dangerous, especially for SHBH.


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Post by DEC1M8 on Tue Feb 11, 2014 12:42 am

So you're saying he tactically slower down his serve and still didn't produce more kick (which you weren't saying one hour ago?)

So basically your theory is he rolled the ball in below 100 mph without much kick for the sake of 'tactics', and you still think he had a back injury but you think the two things (slow serve and back) are unconnected?
And then you insult me by saying I know nothing about tennis, because I think there's a connection?

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Post by paulcz on Tue Feb 11, 2014 1:06 am

Here are the return statistics as return winners and return unforced errors
http://www.ausopen.com/en_AU/scores/stats/day19/1701ms.html

SETS                               1 2 3 4 TOTAL
____________________________________________
Return winners               3 5 4 5 17
% of total                  18% 29% 24% 29% 100%
Return Unforced Errs. 3 9 15 9 36
% of total                    8% 25% 42% 25% 100%

That table shows that Stan had more  about three times more unforced return errors since the second set than in the first set when Nadal was fully ok.
Return winners were since the second set by only one better than in the first set.
Nadal was lucky with his less speed serve since the second set when looking at return winners and unforced return errors. Quite striking.

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Post by DEC1M8 on Tue Feb 11, 2014 1:21 am

What exactly does that show?
It's clear that Nadal had a back injury, which meant he served below 100mph, in the first set Nadal was serving fast so Stan simply blocked the returns into play...

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Post by paulcz on Tue Feb 11, 2014 1:49 am

Julia Santamaria wrote:So you're saying he tactically slower down his serve and still didn't produce more kick (which you weren't saying one hour ago?)

paulcz wrote:
Exactly, when you hit the ball with extreme slice with a fast swing you give the higher kick than you hit the ball with slow swing, especially in case of Nadal's side kick.
or do you think that less racket speed generates more kick on the serve?


So basically your theory is he rolled the ball in below 100 mph without much kick for the sake of 'tactics', and you still think he had a back injury but you think the two things (slow serve and back) are unconnected?
And then you insult me by saying I know nothing about tennis, because I think there's a connection?

As I wrote above Nadal extreme serve grip and fast hitting gives the ball higher side kick than he serves the second serve or as he did that travesty serves.

It is not that when you serve the second serve that you have a much slower swing, but you hit with more slice. Nadal swing was visibly  more slow, but he hit the ball  flatter.

As I said he possibly had a kind of back strain, but that wasn't definitely limiting his serve speed as he did show, that  was a circus. After such a strain the back deteriorates and become stiff, which causes gradually worse problems with swing/timing. That was not Nadal's case.

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Post by paulcz on Tue Feb 11, 2014 1:56 am

Julia Santamaria wrote:What exactly does that show?
It's clear that Nadal had a back injury, which meant he served below 100mph, in the first set Nadal was serving fast so Stan simply blocked the returns into play...

That exactly shows why Nadal tried that travesty approach by slower serve speed, which doesn't have to be a less efficient or successfull serve tactics, but sometimes tha works very well.

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Post by DEC1M8 on Tue Feb 11, 2014 1:59 am

He was slicing the ball in at below 100mph, and it was hardly even bouncing high, neither the kick or speed was like normal.

As for why his serve got faster (from 90 to 96 mph), painkillers start to kick in, so he can slightly more on serve.

Paul wrote:As I said he possibly had a kind of back strain, but that wasn't definitely limiting his serve speed
So you still believe it was a massive coincidence??
How can anyone believe that, and then say I know nothing about tennis just because I think there's a connection, it's beyond belief.

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Post by noleisthebest on Tue Feb 11, 2014 12:02 pm

Tenez wrote:
noleisthebest wrote:Here's a bit of Schubert for you...I've been listening a lot to this piece lately:
Lovely!
Glad you liked it!

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Post by noleisthebest on Tue Feb 11, 2014 12:08 pm

Tenez wrote:
noleisthebest wrote:That's a bold comment.
I can't disagree with it as shot-making tennis should always win against good movers without weapons (Nole) and against life-sucking players like Nadal.
Stan has really improved his FH and turned it into a weapon, it's not just a rallying shot it used to be for him until Norman Magnus took over as his coach.
Even his loss to Nadal in WTF last November was purely down to Stan's choking.
Hopefully, the conditions will get a bit faster everywhere and that will get everyone into proper tennis playing gear, it's a win-win situation!
A great start of 2014 with just this one win, I hope it turns the corner in the right direction.
Stan was a more natural and talented player even before Norman. He never had that champion's mindset, for sure but his shots were always amongst the best. Federer says he knew Stan was capable of the uspset but he probably knew what was Stan's main problem...his belief...and rightly so cause with his thin margins shots it#s always tougher.

Had the roadrunners got to rely on pure shot making under pressure, they too would have a weak mind...in fact that's the reason why they prefer to chase and muscle the ball.

I like Stan but not over the moon with him as his game is good but a bit rough. But definitely more watchable because of the way he plays his FH now.
His movement is not that smooth and he rarely moves inside the court, I prefer to watch Fognini or Paire to him, despite the SBH.
I like to see a bit of artistic creation on a tennis court, and movement is a big part of it. Maybe he will relax a bit now and start exploring the rest of the court with his game!
Another valid question is, why did he not have belief?
It's not all down to fitness, despite it being a good reason for the relative lack of his success.
But, I hope he has turned the corner now and I look forward to watching him in 2014.
I want to see him heal all those bad losses.

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Post by Tenez on Tue Feb 11, 2014 12:48 pm

So who moves well (stylishly) you think?

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Post by DEC1M8 on Tue Feb 11, 2014 1:03 pm

Nadal is really fast, as is Monfils.

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Post by Tenez on Tue Feb 11, 2014 1:07 pm

Yes though I was asking stylishly, gracefully.

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Post by DEC1M8 on Tue Feb 11, 2014 1:11 pm

Yep, I was aware of that smiley

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Post by Daniel on Tue Feb 11, 2014 2:14 pm

http://anygivensurface.wordpress.com/2011/06/29/unfair-advantage-nadal-and-the-mto/

Here's another one for "Julia" to ignore :P

Also:

phc permalink
July 2, 2011 2:08 pm

Its not just the injury timeouts, it is the constant violation of the time allowed between points. Why is this allowed to continue. He obviously has no respect for the rules of the game. He shows no repsect for his opponent or the umpire by keeping both waiting for the coin toss and start of the match. Also there is the completely unnecessary shows of aggression clenching his fists and glaring straight at his opponent. Most players gee themselves up but I haven’t seen anyone else behave like this.


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Post by Tenez on Tue Feb 11, 2014 2:18 pm

FedererKing wrote:http://anygivensurface.wordpress.com/2011/06/29/unfair-advantage-nadal-and-the-mto/

Here's another one for "Julia" to ignore :P
Yes good to be reminded by those kind of things...And Nadal went all the way just to be stopped by Djoko with of course no trace of toe problem in the final.

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Post by DEC1M8 on Tue Feb 11, 2014 2:34 pm

FedererKing, I think firstly you should admit you and Paul were clearly proved wrong over the Nadal back injury issue.
Are you still agreeing with Paul that the 'minor back injury' and slowed down serve was a coincidence? Or not.

Ah I see you've found an opinion blog about Del Potro Nadal MTO Wimbledon. There's a big misconception about the timing of that, I remember SR giving an 'official' link on it, with the timing way off (I think SR's link said it was on the tiebreak). It actually happened when Nadal was set point up, he stepped down and you can tell immediately felt pain on the foot. He called for the MTO then, asking an umpire for the time-out after the game.
So it was Nadal who had the momentum at that point, well he had a set point.
Then it was pretty clear he was in pain, barely moving for the next few points letting Del Potro take it to 6-6, before taking the MTO (which he had already asked for).
As for the diagnosis, with the progress that fast impact medicine has made, heat-spray, cream and a rubbing can make a rapid difference. And it's also not necessary that it was a long-term injury, not every pain in the body is a break or a fracture. So thus it's entirely plausible that it made things better.
As for whether Nadal faked it, why on earth would Nadal with all the momentum on set point randomly call for a MTO, and then barely move for the next 3 points to gift Del Potro the game.

As usual, only Nadal hating fanatics can really see this evidence, and then come to the conclusion that Nadal faked the injury in some sort of strange mission to break his own momentum.
This argument is nearly as ridiculous and ludicrous as Paul saying Nadal's back injury and serving below 100mph 'tactically' is a coincidence!

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Post by Daniel on Tue Feb 11, 2014 3:09 pm

Proven wrong?  Wow, you really must have the best fanboy filter.

Nadal did not have a serious back injury.  If you think for one second that a professional can win a set in a Slam final, after a match ending injury, you need some serious re-education.  Nadal has done this countless times...

and I see you ignored my post.  Again.

Ask yourself this... why do these time out injuries always happen when he is losing? Time for you to wise up. That is, assuming you aren't a troll. I have serious doubts about your integrity because I don't believe someone could be as deluded as you.  Thumbs Up 

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Post by DEC1M8 on Tue Feb 11, 2014 3:14 pm

FedererKing wrote:Proven wrong?  Wow, you really must have the best fanboy filter.

Nadal did not have a serious back injury.  If you think for one second that a professional can win a set in a Slam final, after a match ending injury, you need some serious re-education.  Nadal has done this countless times...

Did I say serious?
I did not say it was serious as in career threatening, or long term; however it was serious enough to mean on that day he could not serve from sets 2-4 at above 100mph, and could not run either. The only reason Nadal won the 3rd set is because Wawrinka realised he was on the verge, and simply had a blip, before picking himself up for the 4th set. To quote Paul 'anyone who knows about tennis' could see that.
So I assume you still agree with Paul that Nada serving slower was a tactic to 'lengthen rallies'...

and I see you ignored my post.  Again.
No, I didn't. Look above, I responded to the link you posted.
As for the time between points, I've already talked in length about his OCD which means he does rituals which take longer time.
As for his fist pumping, so what? He is a passionate player, he can celebrate if he likes.

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Post by DEC1M8 on Tue Feb 11, 2014 3:17 pm

Paul here insists that the back injury and serving below 100mph is a coincidence, yet needless ad hominem insults are directed towards me...

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Post by noleisthebest on Tue Feb 11, 2014 3:23 pm

Tenez wrote:So who moves well (stylishly) you think?

Apart from Fed, most French players do, Dolgopolov, Fognini,  then there is the element of being kind to the ball on top like Mannarino, Vasselin or Goffin, and ideally if they play all court tennis.
So there aren't many players who have all that.
I like Strakh's game when it's flowing, too.
But exclusive baseliners, however good the shot-makers they are are just kind of half-baked to watch.

Jelena Jankovic is a very nice mover as well.

The opposite is often being off-balance, grunting, sweating like mad, moving more laterally than forward.
I love watching Fed's feet when he does that quick scissor like movement with them to prepare for the shot, it's just so unique and fantastic.
Beautiful coordination.


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Post by Tenez on Tue Feb 11, 2014 3:25 pm

I really think the discussion about whether Nadal was having a minor...average....up to...a serious back injury is completely useless.

Even a minor back problem can be seriously impeding chances of winning. I tok th example of Federer who had a back injury in 2012 where he could have easily lost to Benetteau in 3 but went on to beat the best players and the tournament.

How on earth can we with a naked eye gauge the pain Federer was going through in Wimby 2012 which could typically have cost him an early exit but yet we did not notice any pain (he may still have had) when he won the semi and final versus Djoko and Murray respectively that year?

In short: impossible. It's simply impossible to know how bad was Nadal's back problem was. It may simply have been a tight muscle due to stress up to a torn muscle, or even disc displacement. With Nadal in particular it is impossible to say.

Him being injured and faking an injury (amplifying it for sure) are not mutually exclusive options unfortunately. In fact I believe there is a bit of both when it comes to Nadal. All his niggles are "advertised" like no other athletes' are.

I wish he would simply act less....I may end up believing him one day.

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Post by Tenez on Tue Feb 11, 2014 3:31 pm

noleisthebest wrote:
Tenez wrote:So who moves well (stylishly) you think?

Apart from Fed, most French players do, Dolgopolov, Fognini,  then there is the element of being kind to the ball on top like Mannarino, Vasselin or Goffin, and ideally if they play all court tennis.
So there aren't many players who have all that.
I like Strakh's game when it's flowing, too.
But exclusive baseliners, however good the shot-makers they are are just kind of half-baked to watch.

Jelena Jankovic is a very nice mover as well.

The opposite is often being off-balance, grunting, sweating like mad, moving more laterally than forward.
I love watching Fed's feet when he does that quick scissor like movement with them to prepare for the shot, it's  just so unique and fantastic.
Beautiful coordination.

For me the best footwork apart from Fed (who is a class above everybody else, are Davydenko, Nadal and Monfils (for his easy power yet lightness). So quite agree with amri here.

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Post by DEC1M8 on Tue Feb 11, 2014 3:38 pm

Tenez wrote:Even a minor back problem can be seriously impeding chances of winning.
Yes, on any given day.
It's not necessary that just because it's not a chronic long term problem, that it can't cause you pain on a certain day.

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Post by noleisthebest on Tue Feb 11, 2014 3:42 pm

To me, Davidenko is similar to Stan - too much baseline.
Nole is also very light-footed when he steals to the net, it's great to watch him do it live.
I'm not sure what you meant with Nadal and easy power, though...

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Post by noleisthebest on Tue Feb 11, 2014 3:50 pm

FedererKing wrote:http://anygivensurface.wordpress.com/2011/06/29/unfair-advantage-nadal-and-the-mto/


Its not just the injury timeouts, it is the constant violation of the time allowed between points. Why is this allowed to continue. He obviously has no respect for the rules of the game. He shows no repsect for his opponent or the umpire by keeping both waiting for the coin toss and start of the match. Also there is the completely unnecessary shows of aggression clenching his fists and glaring straight at his opponent. Most players gee themselves up but I haven’t seen anyone else behave like this.

This paragraph looks like I've written it!

Yes, I remember Lynn Barber's article, it was brilliant, and that comparison with Mohamed is spot on!
There is definitely an element of pathology there...the way Nadal's fans have this urge and need to blindly "defend" him, this collective maternal/protective instinct.. As if both his and their  life depends on that "love"....it's quite something!

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Post by Tenez on Tue Feb 11, 2014 3:56 pm

noleisthebest wrote:To me, Davidenko is similar to Stan - too much baseline.
Nole is also very light-footed when he steals to the net, it's great to watch him do it live.
I'm not sure what you meant with Nadal and easy power, though...
I was just talking about the moving. Davydenko moves very well....he glides. Djoko's movement is efficient but I don't particularly find it smooth, on the contrary. Tall body with a lot of brutal bending...breaking should I say. Nadal's isn't too smooth either but his quick steps are pretty good and looks more natural on that side.

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Post by noleisthebest on Tue Feb 11, 2014 3:59 pm

Yes, I know what you mean about Nole, which is why I mentioned movement to the net.
He does have this unusual, almost rigid upright position, and the lack of that essential loosenes affects how he plays.

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Post by Daniel on Tue Feb 11, 2014 4:09 pm

noleisthebest wrote:
FedererKing wrote:http://anygivensurface.wordpress.com/2011/06/29/unfair-advantage-nadal-and-the-mto/


Its not just the injury timeouts, it is the constant violation of the time allowed between points. Why is this allowed to continue. He obviously has no respect for the rules of the game. He shows no repsect for his opponent or the umpire by keeping both waiting for the coin toss and start of the match. Also there is the completely unnecessary shows of aggression clenching his fists and glaring straight at his opponent. Most players gee themselves up but I haven’t seen anyone else behave like this.

This paragraph looks like I've written it!

Yes, I remember Lynn Barber's article, it was brilliant, and that comparison with Mohamed is spot on!
There is definitely an element of pathology there...the way Nadal's fans have this urge and need to blindly "defend" him, this collective maternal/protective instinct.. As if both his and their  life depends on that "love"....it's quite something!

I've long argued that fanboyism to sport/games is a form of religious bigotry. That is, the same mechanism that leads to intolerance with religions, is also present elsewhere.

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Post by DEC1M8 on Tue Feb 11, 2014 4:21 pm

It's about logic.
The points I make are on the whole rational and logical. Most in the mainstream media and public agree with what I say, you do not have to be a Nadal fan to do so.

You on the other hand base your points on irrational hatred, and in general Nadal haters have to resort to as hominem insults.

Just look at the debate between me and Paul, he insults me and says I know nothing about tennis, based in a debate where he is saying Nadals minor back injury and slowing down the serve to 95mph is a coincidence.
And you said something similar, saying Nadal must be normal just because he won a set, but everyone who watched the match can realise it was simply Wawrinka getting really nervous on the brink and having a one set blip against an hindered opponent.

As I said, Wawrinka deserves his victory, he's a great character and has a good attitude; just because players beat Nadal doesn't mean I go on hate campaigns against them.

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Post by noleisthebest on Tue Feb 11, 2014 4:31 pm

Julia Santamaria wrote: You on the other hand base your points on irrational hatred, and in general Nadal haters have to resort to as hominem insults.

You mean only Nadal's haters haters have the right to resort to "ad hominem" insults...

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Post by DEC1M8 on Tue Feb 11, 2014 4:34 pm

noleisthebest wrote:
Julia Santamaria wrote: You on the other hand base your points on irrational hatred, and in general Nadal haters have to resort to as hominem insults.

You mean only Nadal's haters haters have the right to resort to "ad hominem" insults...
We all have the right, I'm not saying people's rights should be taken away.
But I do think ad hominem insults shouldn't be substituted for debating under a pretence.

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Post by Daniel on Tue Feb 11, 2014 4:49 pm

I don't think you should be able to continually ignore points and sail through life with your eyes closed.  In a real debate setting, you'd be made to look stupid. But it is what it is. You aren't going to ever see Nadal in the wrong, even if he was found guilty of doping. Then you'd be saying it is a lie etc etc etc. There is no way to possibly "beat" you on a forum. You are free to keep ignoring and using the usual tactics to avoid answering people directly. Any stat, fact, or otherwise can just be ignored. A bit like the JFK conspiracy nuts.

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Post by DEC1M8 on Tue Feb 11, 2014 4:56 pm

Really?
With what, you arguing that Nadal can't have an injury because he won a set? Even though it's clear Stan just had a blip due to the fact he was on the brink of glory.
Or Paul arguing Nadal served below 100mph as a tactic to lengthen rallies, with the back injury as a coincidence.
Or some blog, keeping on getting the timing of Nadals injury wrong on purpose, when in reality it was Nadal who had the momentum set point up when he felt the pain and called for the MTO?

In which setting would I be shown to be wrong? Am illogical warped one which hates Nadal perhaps.

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Post by DEC1M8 on Tue Feb 11, 2014 4:59 pm

Which stat or fact have I ignored, as you made that accusation FK?

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Post by noleisthebest on Tue Feb 11, 2014 5:10 pm

Shall we please return to tennis...I think we have exhausted Nadal's AO Show to death (bless 'im!)
Amri, how many slams do you see Nadal winning this year?
Is it true that he has taken this AO really badly in terms of confidence?

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Post by DEC1M8 on Tue Feb 11, 2014 5:15 pm

noleisthebest wrote:Shall we please return to tennis...I think we have exhausted Nadal's AO Show to death (bless 'im!)
Amri, how many slams do you see Nadal winning this year?
Is it true that he has taken this AO really badly in terms of confidence?
He was very disappointed about the loss, however I suspect this will make him more hungry in future to win titles.
To be honest, I don't know about Nadal winning any more slams this year, his fitness is always in question, he is 28 and declining now, and I feel Djokovic will be desperate to win a Grand Slam (somehow he holds 0, which feels bizarre). And even past Djokovic, I think Murray, Wawrinka, and Del Potro can be threats this year to Nadal- so it won't be easy.

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Post by Daniel on Tue Feb 11, 2014 5:27 pm

I think he will win 0. Maybe 1 at most.

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Post by truffin1 on Tue Feb 11, 2014 7:33 pm

FedererKing wrote:I think he will win 0.  Maybe 1 at most.

He's always favorite at French, but I can't see him winning Wimbledon, and Us Open would have to be another fantastic draw and some poor form by the other guys..

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Post by DEC1M8 on Tue Feb 11, 2014 8:08 pm

I really don't think there's a huge difference in his chances at the French and US, if his fitness is similar for both.

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Post by noleisthebest on Wed Feb 12, 2014 9:51 am

Julia Santamaria wrote:I really don't think there's a huge difference in his chances at the French and US, if his fitness is similar for both.

He, he, another thought provoking comment...surprised you didn't add Wimbledon in as well!

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Post by DEC1M8 on Wed Feb 12, 2014 10:14 am

noleisthebest wrote:
Julia Santamaria wrote:I really don't think there's a huge difference in his chances at the French and US, if his fitness is similar for both.

He, he, another thought provoking  comment...surprised you didn't add Wimbledon in as well!
The same applies to Wimbledon, as long as he can get past the first week & injury free.

Edit: To clarify I mean BOTH get past the first week and remain injury free.


Last edited by Julia Santamaria on Wed Feb 12, 2014 4:01 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Post by Daniel on Wed Feb 12, 2014 3:42 pm

lmao...  you can't be serious.  You really think Nadal has equal chance at the slams?  So why then is he currently 1-8-2-2 ?

And why has he lost in second and first round in the last 2 Wimbledon Slams?

Or does this stat not count either....

Let's see how you respond.

a. Ignore post
b. Move goal post
c. Blame "injuries"
d. Bogus explanation of stats because stats don't agree with you.

Your love of Nadal has completely crippled your mind... Smooch 

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Post by DEC1M8 on Wed Feb 12, 2014 4:00 pm

I was talking about US Open and French Open, I don't think Nadal is getting past the first week of Wimbledon (but if he does, he's right up there).

Why do I feel he has equal chance at French Open and US Open?
Well this is a prediction of sorts, so I can neither be proven nor disproven, not yet anyway.  
Certainly if you look at the statistics of Nadal's record, it would appear that Nadal has a much greater record at the French Open compared to the US Open, I am not doubting that.
However Nadal, from what I can see, has shifted his game to compete better on hard courts; taking the forehand down-the-line earlier is a prime example.
I simply do not see any difference in his level of performance on outdoor hard courts, and on clay.

This argument is very different from you or Paul arguing that Nadal's back injury was a coincidence with his slow serve, or you thinking that Nadal serving at 95mph is normal just because he won a set. That has already happened, and is clearly wrong.

I am not saying either that so far Nadal has done equally well in his career at the US and French, as your reaction would tend to suggest, I am well aware that is not the case.

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Post by DEC1M8 on Wed Feb 12, 2014 4:05 pm

FedererKing wrote:Your love of Nadal has completely crippled your mind...
This line of personal attack does you no favour in this debate.
It reminds me actually, you haven't answered whether you still agree with Paul's analysis; do you also believe Nadal's minor back injury and serving at 90mph was just a coincidence , or do you still stick with your 'he was normal just because he won a set.'
Oblivious to the fact of course that it was clear Wawrinka simply lost that set not because Nadal was playing at a normal level, but simply because he was on the verge of a Grand Slam victory, and mentally went walkabout for a period, before collecting himself again.

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Post by Daniel on Wed Feb 12, 2014 4:09 pm

I simply do not see any difference in his level of performance on outdoor hard courts, and on clay.

He just lost the Australia Open....

And you can't possibly predict he is now better on hard courts after 1 US Open slam win. In any case, you said in your other post that you would also include Wimbledon to the list.

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