Roger, Rafa and the Big 4
+6
noleisthebest
BlueClay
Tenez
N2D2L
Daniel
summerblues
10 posters
Our Tennis Forum :: Tennis :: Tennis
Page 1 of 1
Roger, Rafa and the Big 4
I posted a Rafa/Roger only version of this on 606v2; here I added Nole and Andy. A few observations:
1. Throughout all of their careers I thought that Rafa would likely fail to overhaul Roger's slam count. Now, for the first time, I am inclined to give Rafa better than 50/50 chance of making it.
2. When Nole was winning everything, I think I made a guess that he would fail to get beyond (or even reach, cannot remember) 10 slams. While Nole can still get there, he does look like he got a bit stuck. If he wants to reach 10, he will need to quickly rediscover his slam winning magic. Getting rid of Boris would be a good first step, in my mind
3. The chart also nicely illustrates that - in spite of people talking of "Big 4" - how far behind Murray and, to a lesser extent, Nole are. It is really a two horse race between Roger and Rafa.
1. Throughout all of their careers I thought that Rafa would likely fail to overhaul Roger's slam count. Now, for the first time, I am inclined to give Rafa better than 50/50 chance of making it.
2. When Nole was winning everything, I think I made a guess that he would fail to get beyond (or even reach, cannot remember) 10 slams. While Nole can still get there, he does look like he got a bit stuck. If he wants to reach 10, he will need to quickly rediscover his slam winning magic. Getting rid of Boris would be a good first step, in my mind
3. The chart also nicely illustrates that - in spite of people talking of "Big 4" - how far behind Murray and, to a lesser extent, Nole are. It is really a two horse race between Roger and Rafa.
summerblues- Posts : 5068
Join date : 2012-05-19
Re: Roger, Rafa and the Big 4
And as we learnt with LA, trophies might come and go!FedererKing wrote:he hasn't got 14 yet.
having said that 17 is certainly a realistic number...if Djoko does not wake up.....and/or th enew generation does not step in! Nadal looked mighty powerful today...for some reasons much more than outside slams!
Tenez- Posts : 21050
Join date : 2012-06-18
Re: Roger, Rafa and the Big 4
FedererKing wrote:he hasn't got 14 yet.
Julia Santamaria wrote:He's still on 13 slams.
I know and I am not into jinxing (at least not as much as some here ). It may not be very visible but the line from 13 to 14 is not a solid line but a dashed-line - indicating where he would be if he were to win on Sunday.
summerblues- Posts : 5068
Join date : 2012-05-19
Re: Roger, Rafa and the Big 4
the 7 Wimbledon record is safe..and still the most important!
Tenez- Posts : 21050
Join date : 2012-06-18
Re: Roger, Rafa and the Big 4
Tenez wrote:the 7 Wimbledon record is safe..and still the most important!
Yeah, totally. It's even more impressive that Fed managed that in the slow-ass era.
Daniel- Posts : 3645
Join date : 2013-11-06
Re: Roger, Rafa and the Big 4
summerblues wrote:1. Throughout all of their careers I thought that Rafa would likely fail to overhaul Roger's slam count. Now, for the first time, I am inclined to give Rafa better than 50/50 chance of making it.
if Nadal wins the AO final (which he will unless an Act of God prevents it) and gets to 14 slams, it is pretty much a given IMO that he will equal or even surpass Federer's slam record if he can remain injury free.2. When Nole was winning everything, I think I made a guess that he would fail to get beyond (or even reach, cannot remember) 10 slams. While Nole can still get there, he does look like he got a bit stuck. If he wants to reach 10, he will need to quickly rediscover his slam winning magic. Getting rid of Boris would be a good first step, in my mind
I don't think Djokovic will get to 10 slams. I think he will probably end his career with around 8.
BlueClay- Posts : 366
Join date : 2012-12-26
Re: Roger, Rafa and the Big 4
I am still hopeful that Fed can win a slam or two.
Nole....needs to regroup asap. He won't break the record in this chart, but may be instrumental in preserving Fed's.
Perhaps, the key to the whole story may be this year's RG.
If Nole manages to win it and Fed's back holds in Wimbledon, USO is anyone's bet.
Murray looked good against Fed and he could also be "useful" in stopping Nadal.
Come next year, younger guard may be gaining more experience and confidence and even someone completely new turn out of nowhere.
One thing is for sure, Nadal has to be stopped!
Nole....needs to regroup asap. He won't break the record in this chart, but may be instrumental in preserving Fed's.
Perhaps, the key to the whole story may be this year's RG.
If Nole manages to win it and Fed's back holds in Wimbledon, USO is anyone's bet.
Murray looked good against Fed and he could also be "useful" in stopping Nadal.
Come next year, younger guard may be gaining more experience and confidence and even someone completely new turn out of nowhere.
One thing is for sure, Nadal has to be stopped!
noleisthebest- Posts : 27907
Join date : 2012-06-18
Re: Roger, Rafa and the Big 4
Right ....so 13 it is still...a lucky number!
Now pressure on Nadal on defending all those clay points....including HC IW.
Still a 4 slams separating Nadal and Federer! That's the other great news of the day.
Now pressure on Nadal on defending all those clay points....including HC IW.
Still a 4 slams separating Nadal and Federer! That's the other great news of the day.
Tenez- Posts : 21050
Join date : 2012-06-18
Re: Roger, Rafa and the Big 4
Stan stopped a nightmare tale today. Nadal... being presented with a trophy from a guy he has just equalled in Slams. A guy who has more talent than he ever could have. Stan has made my day! Glad he pulled it off! What a way to break the losing streak.
Daniel- Posts : 3645
Join date : 2013-11-06
Re: Roger, Rafa and the Big 4
FedererKing wrote:Stan stopped a nightmare tale today. Nadal... being presented with a trophy from a guy he has just equalled in Slams. A guy who has more talent than he ever could have. Stan has made my day! Glad he pulled it off! What a way to break the losing streak.
He made my 2014!...so far!
Tenez- Posts : 21050
Join date : 2012-06-18
Re: Roger, Rafa and the Big 4
To add to the stats already mentioned:
Nadal (aged 27) was going for his 14th major today having lost 5 finals
Federer (aged 27) won his 14th major having lost 5 finals
Nadal (aged 27) was going for his 14th major today having lost 5 finals
Federer (aged 27) won his 14th major having lost 5 finals
Polly 81- Posts : 340
Join date : 2013-11-07
Re: Roger, Rafa and the Big 4
So now that Nadal lost his Last holding slam, what are the chances of him bettering Roger's 17?
I think he would still have a good chance ..if it was not for today performance. It was quite a poor display. Not sure what's wrong with him but his "team" will have to work something out.
I feel that his chances of winning more slams is very unlikely as the FO is by far his favourite one....and did not do too well there. he is unlikely to win the other slams now.
He will have to look at the bright side: His H2H v Federer...and will have to work very hard to not to have a bad H2H v Djoko cause this is going to affect his positive record he has v Federer.
I think he would still have a good chance ..if it was not for today performance. It was quite a poor display. Not sure what's wrong with him but his "team" will have to work something out.
I feel that his chances of winning more slams is very unlikely as the FO is by far his favourite one....and did not do too well there. he is unlikely to win the other slams now.
He will have to look at the bright side: His H2H v Federer...and will have to work very hard to not to have a bad H2H v Djoko cause this is going to affect his positive record he has v Federer.
Tenez- Posts : 21050
Join date : 2012-06-18
Re: Roger, Rafa and the Big 4
Nadal was quite odd today.
He was bluffing the entire match, in fact.
All he has now is the grunt and that vicious topspin, and may I say what a bity one!
But no spirit and confidence to drive it.
Of all 4 players I saw today (Nole, Murray and
Ferrer), his ball is by far the most powerful.
I thought his average shot was about 30% more powerful than Nole's.
In that first set, Nadal was able to push and keep Nole far behind the baseline, and that is no easy feat. He just has ridiculous power at his disposal.
His legs looked different from last year.
He just didn't have that smooth run to his FH and Nole didn't give it to him either.
I think Nole's frequent drop-shotting contributed a lot to Nadal's lack of rhythm.
And then when I thought Nadal was spent, he would again come out blazing his super juiced shots...any little dip of focus from Nole and he was ready to pounce.
Nadal would've beaten many other players today!
It's too early to completely write him off but he is on the ropes, that's for sure, that aura will be starting to fade fast in the locker room now.
The real problem is, as we have been saying all the time, he has no plan B.
The bicep is still there though, ready at the first sign of weakness.
He was bluffing the entire match, in fact.
All he has now is the grunt and that vicious topspin, and may I say what a bity one!
But no spirit and confidence to drive it.
Of all 4 players I saw today (Nole, Murray and
Ferrer), his ball is by far the most powerful.
I thought his average shot was about 30% more powerful than Nole's.
In that first set, Nadal was able to push and keep Nole far behind the baseline, and that is no easy feat. He just has ridiculous power at his disposal.
His legs looked different from last year.
He just didn't have that smooth run to his FH and Nole didn't give it to him either.
I think Nole's frequent drop-shotting contributed a lot to Nadal's lack of rhythm.
And then when I thought Nadal was spent, he would again come out blazing his super juiced shots...any little dip of focus from Nole and he was ready to pounce.
Nadal would've beaten many other players today!
It's too early to completely write him off but he is on the ropes, that's for sure, that aura will be starting to fade fast in the locker room now.
The real problem is, as we have been saying all the time, he has no plan B.
The bicep is still there though, ready at the first sign of weakness.
noleisthebest- Posts : 27907
Join date : 2012-06-18
Re: Roger, Rafa and the Big 4
He has gone mentally. It was a weak surrender it has to be said. Like you say the fortress that was RG is gone and next year he turns 30, so it would be unlikely he reaches the same heights of yesteryear.
If he ends the year slamless, I would say stick a fork in him.
I think the wider question is can he break back into the top 4? He has points to gain during the American swing. We saw with Federer in 2013 when he dipped, but got back into the top 4. Murray in 2014 and he done it. I have grave reservations for Nadal as he now faces the potential prospect of playing more tournaments to beef those ranking points up.
If he ends the year slamless, I would say stick a fork in him.
I think the wider question is can he break back into the top 4? He has points to gain during the American swing. We saw with Federer in 2013 when he dipped, but got back into the top 4. Murray in 2014 and he done it. I have grave reservations for Nadal as he now faces the potential prospect of playing more tournaments to beef those ranking points up.
legendkillar- Posts : 3266
Join date : 2012-10-02
Re: Roger, Rafa and the Big 4
I am not sure actually. As I pointed out. he did not do any better than Nieminen. He certainly looked flat footed and if you compare his energy level with AO12....far from it.noleisthebest wrote:
Nadal would've beaten many other players today!
We have been hearing again about that time violation and I think this is his biggest problem. To be able to keep the intensity he still brings sometimes, he needs more time between points.It's too early to completely write him off but he is on the ropes, that's for sure, that aura will be starting to fade fast in the locker room now.
The real problem is, as we have been saying all the time, he has no plan B.
The bicep is still there though, ready at the first sign of weakness.
It's not a trivial thing. It's crucial for him. He would not have got into the trouble of tarnishing his reputation and put pressure on all referees just for the fun of it .
I think people are overlooking the effect of applying the time rule over in his loss of form...but they do coincide.
Tenez- Posts : 21050
Join date : 2012-06-18
Re: Roger, Rafa and the Big 4
His main challenge will be to face better players earlier in the draws. That is what should seriously affect his assault to the top. The very same reason why he lost today instead of the final.legendkillar wrote:He has gone mentally. It was a weak surrender it has to be said. Like you say the fortress that was RG is gone and next year he turns 30, so it would be unlikely he reaches the same heights of yesteryear.
If he ends the year slamless, I would say stick a fork in him.
I think the wider question is can he break back into the top 4? He has points to gain during the American swing. We saw with Federer in 2013 when he dipped, but got back into the top 4. Murray in 2014 and he done it. I have grave reservations for Nadal as he now faces the potential prospect of playing more tournaments to beef those ranking points up.
Tenez- Posts : 21050
Join date : 2012-06-18
Re: Roger, Rafa and the Big 4
You are right!
When I told Nouni that they (colleague umpires) needed to support Bernardes and give Nadal more time violations, he looked a bit apprehensive to put it mildly...
A lot is cooking behind the scenes...
When I told Nouni that they (colleague umpires) needed to support Bernardes and give Nadal more time violations, he looked a bit apprehensive to put it mildly...
A lot is cooking behind the scenes...
noleisthebest- Posts : 27907
Join date : 2012-06-18
Re: Roger, Rafa and the Big 4
You personally spoke to Kader Nouni?noleisthebest wrote:You are right!
When I told Nouni that they (colleague umpires) needed to support Bernardes and give Nadal more time violations, he looked a bit apprehensive to put it mildly...
A lot is cooking behind the scenes...
raiders_of_the_lost_ark- Posts : 3499
Join date : 2012-07-20
Re: Roger, Rafa and the Big 4
Tenez wrote:His main challenge will be to face better players earlier in the draws. That is what should seriously affect his assault to the top. The very same reason why he lost today instead of the final.legendkillar wrote:He has gone mentally. It was a weak surrender it has to be said. Like you say the fortress that was RG is gone and next year he turns 30, so it would be unlikely he reaches the same heights of yesteryear.
If he ends the year slamless, I would say stick a fork in him.
I think the wider question is can he break back into the top 4? He has points to gain during the American swing. We saw with Federer in 2013 when he dipped, but got back into the top 4. Murray in 2014 and he done it. I have grave reservations for Nadal as he now faces the potential prospect of playing more tournaments to beef those ranking points up.
Will the better players though believe they can beat Nadal? Even this off colour version. Can Berdych back up his first victory over him? I really hope that these players can now walk out on court and not feel defeated. More so on the Clay.
legendkillar- Posts : 3266
Join date : 2012-10-02
Similar topics
» Here's how Roger Federer can finally beat Rafa Nadal at Roland Garros
» Thank You, Rafa!
» What now for Roger?
» Roger's Cup
» Rafa Nadal: Done Or Not?
» Thank You, Rafa!
» What now for Roger?
» Roger's Cup
» Rafa Nadal: Done Or Not?
Our Tennis Forum :: Tennis :: Tennis
Page 1 of 1
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
|
|
Sat Mar 23, 2024 9:00 pm by noleisthebest
» The Bullshit of Rafael Nadal
Mon Feb 12, 2024 12:15 am by Daniel2
» Why Trump's 'tough' stance on radical Islam... could lead to more terrorism
Thu Feb 01, 2024 4:32 am by Daniel2
» Missing Madeline 10 years on..
Thu Feb 01, 2024 4:31 am by Daniel2
» '15 Dubious Weak Era Records'
Thu Feb 01, 2024 4:06 am by Daniel2
» AO 2024 - Sinner baby!!
Thu Feb 01, 2024 4:05 am by Daniel2
» Paris Masters
Mon Nov 06, 2023 9:47 pm by noleisthebest
» Alvarez could bring me back to tennis
Wed Sep 20, 2023 10:25 am by raiders_of_the_lost_ark
» IDEMOOOOOOO! ! ! !
Mon Sep 11, 2023 9:47 am by noleisthebest