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Disastrous Draw for Rafito Nadal

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Disastrous Draw for Rafito Nadal

Post by DEC1M7 on Fri Jan 10, 2014 12:33 am

R1 Tomic
R3 Monfils
QF- Del Potro
SF-Murray
F- Djokovic

If Djokovic had the draw Nadal had you would all be calling conspiracy... will you now go the other way and be consistent (or do you only call it when you fell your player has a tough draw...)?

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Re: Disastrous Draw for Rafito Nadal

Post by noleisthebest on Fri Jan 10, 2014 12:35 am

Bravo Amri!!!
You are the Prediction GOAT  Applause

PS
I'm assuming you are serious here, have been typing on your other thread and haven't watched the draw ceremony at all.

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Re: Disastrous Draw for Rafito Nadal

Post by Daniel on Fri Jan 10, 2014 2:44 am

The nightmare has begun for Nadal fans this year. And a perfect time for Tomic to shine Winking

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Re: Disastrous Draw for Rafito Nadal

Post by mikeyM1000 on Fri Jan 10, 2014 8:26 am

Disastrous? What a load of nonsense.
Tomic has beaten only 2 top 20 players in the last 2 years.
Round 2 conveniently overlooked
Monfils has a 2 - 9 record vs Rafa, never got past the 4th rd at the AO and just lost to Rafa
Round 4 conveniently overlooked
QF - oh no, Rafa has to play a top 8 player in the QF. It's a disaster. JMDP is another player whose worst GS results are at the AO.
SF - Murray, on the way back from injury, will be lucky to get to the SF
F - Er, the No 2 seed - how did that happen? Rigged.

I don't know how anyone can call it a disastrous draw, unless they are either deliberately wumming or just haven't thought about it clearly.

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Re: Disastrous Draw for Rafito Nadal

Post by Tenez on Fri Jan 10, 2014 8:38 am

It still make it a very tough draw. Tomic can only improve and what happens in the past does not mean he can't do better today. Same for Monfils. This one was mostly injured in his career and yet won 3 of the last 5 sets they played. So even if Nadal might get through it can be considered a tough draw.
from then on you try to belittle Delpo and Murray but frankly who else would worry him more? Delpo is probably Nadal's worst opponent with Djoko. Certainly over bo3.

And Yes Murray might be injured, yet he will not go down easily and make tough and long rallies ....which is exactly what Djoko wants to see.

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Re: Disastrous Draw for Rafito Nadal

Post by mikeyM1000 on Fri Jan 10, 2014 8:56 am

I'm not belittling JMDP, just pointing out that a tough QF is not disastrous - it's exactly what should be expected in a Grand Slam.
And Murray is only just back from injury and is very unlikely to be at his best, so that he may well not reach the SF, and if he does can we expect a peak performance from him? No.

Tomic - nah, he's a waster, and will most likely always be a waster. Tomic in the first round is not 'disastrous', nor is Monfils in Rd 3 'disastrous', nor is JMDP in the QF 'disastrous'.

In fact, if Tomic turns out to be 'disastrous', it won't matter to Rafa who is in Rd 3, because it'll be Tomic vs Monfils.

I guess I'm just pointing out that the spin Amri is putting on it is well over the top - if Rafa loses, it's only because he had a 'disastrous' draw. It's not a 'disastrous' draw.

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Re: Disastrous Draw for Rafito Nadal

Post by DEC1M7 on Fri Jan 10, 2014 9:19 am

FedererKing wrote:The nightmare has begun for Nadal fans this year. And a perfect time for Tomic to shine Winking

Not really a nightmare though, I think most Nadal fans are realistic about his chances here- as long as he is not hindered by injury and giving his 100%- that is all Nadal fans like me can ask for.

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Re: Disastrous Draw for Rafito Nadal

Post by DEC1M7 on Fri Jan 10, 2014 9:21 am

mikeyM1000 wrote:
I guess I'm just pointing out that the spin Amri is putting on it is well over the top - if Rafa loses, it's only because he had a 'disastrous' draw. It's not a 'disastrous' draw.

No, no, no; Nadal will not lose because of the draw- he will lose because he is now entering fast permanent decline, this travesty of a draw has just made mission improbable mission impossible.

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Re: Disastrous Draw for Rafito Nadal

Post by noleisthebest on Fri Jan 10, 2014 9:28 am

The choice of words may be strong, but Nadal's draw has not looked worse for a long time.
For the very top seeds, esp top two, the real toughness of the draw is measured in the semis and partly QF.
That's why it used to matter a lot whose half Nole was going to fall in during the Fedal years.
Now, with Ferrer and an off-form Murray, it's far less so.
Having said that, Murray has a very cushy draw in the first few rounds and that will help him no end to play himself into further rounds and gain match fitness and confidence.
Had he had Nadal's draw, you could almost write Murray off, he does not "react" kindly to good players in early rounds and Tomic and Monfils are very tough choice for rounds 1 and 3, esp in the first slam of the year.

Back to Nadal, Delpo is the worst QF opponent by far, even if he does not knock Nadal out, he will drain him in these slow conditions.
We all remember how he handed half dead Federer in the Olympic final to Murray, and a half-dead Nole this Wimbledon.

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Re: Disastrous Draw for Rafito Nadal

Post by Tenez on Fri Jan 10, 2014 9:44 am

mikeyM1000 wrote:I'm not belittling JMDP, just pointing out that a tough QF is not disastrous - it's exactly what should be expected in a Grand Slam.
And Murray is only just back from injury and is very unlikely to be at his best, so that he may well not reach the SF, and if he does can we expect a peak performance from him? No.

Tomic - nah, he's a waster, and will most likely always be a waster. Tomic in the first round is not 'disastrous', nor is Monfils in Rd 3 'disastrous', nor is JMDP in the QF 'disastrous'.

In fact, if Tomic turns out to be 'disastrous', it won't matter to Rafa who is in Rd 3, because it'll be Tomic vs Monfils.

I guess I'm just pointing out that the spin Amri is putting on it is well over the top - if Rafa loses, it's only because he had a 'disastrous' draw. It's not a 'disastrous' draw.

What would be, according to you, a worse draw for Rafa?

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Re: Disastrous Draw for Rafito Nadal

Post by DEC1M7 on Fri Jan 10, 2014 9:44 am

Tenez, NITB; agree with your draw analysis.

btw do join up to the TFF thing

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Re: Disastrous Draw for Rafito Nadal

Post by Tenez on Fri Jan 10, 2014 9:57 am

I will.

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Re: Disastrous Draw for Rafito Nadal

Post by mikeyM1000 on Fri Jan 10, 2014 10:01 am

I simply don't rate Tomic. He's been going downhill for a year and a half and he never went very far uphill in the first place. It would be embarrassing for any top 20 player to lose to Tomic, let alone a top 8 player.

He's not a tough draw for any of the top players.

Which, for Nadal, leave only 2 tough rounds out of 6 (excluding the final, where being drawn against the No.2 seed is inevitable). And Monfils isn't that tough a draw in the 3rd round - in the
lower half of the 16-32 seeds - there are better players in that range.

So the only really tough draw in JMDP in the QF. I don't consider having one potentially really tough round before the final to be a very tough draw.

Murray has only lost once in the 1st 3 rounds of a GS since 2008, so although he may not react kindly to good players in early rounds, at least he does beat them.

A worse draw for Rafa? Davydenko, Dolgoplov, Hewitt, maybe a big server (if the conditions are fast) - Mahut, Querry, maybe Cilic - all tougher than Tomic.
Round 3 - Nishikori, Dimitrov, Gulbis, Paire, Janowicz - are they all easier than Monfils? Or maybe they would all be disastrous? smiley

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Re: Disastrous Draw for Rafito Nadal

Post by noleisthebest on Fri Jan 10, 2014 10:06 am

Tomic is a dangerous ball-striker who has a lot of easy power, is not a basher, and has actually improved his serve which makes him additionally difficult to play.
Then there is the home Oz support, which won't bother Nadal, but will help Tomic.
Also, I don't remember Tomic being a choker, and that's very important, so I look forward to that one.
Tomic is not a favourite, but he has a chance which cannot be said for any of Nole's, Fed's, Murray's etc 1st round opponents.

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Re: Disastrous Draw for Rafito Nadal

Post by mikeyM1000 on Fri Jan 10, 2014 10:28 am

Isn't that what we said at Wimby in the first couple of rounds?

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Re: Disastrous Draw for Rafito Nadal

Post by noleisthebest on Fri Jan 10, 2014 10:38 am

To be honest, I don't remember how he played this Wimbledon and who he lost to.
He has had a difficult year with his headcase father (of whom he is a small copy, I suppose) who had to go to court because of headbutting Drouet, his son's hitting partner.
Tomic sided with his dad, lied to protect him, and those things damage you.
But the fact is when he is focused, which he seems to be in Oz, he can  be a difficult opponent.
Nobody wants to open their slam with a difficult opponent.

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Re: Disastrous Draw for Rafito Nadal

Post by Daniel on Fri Jan 10, 2014 10:44 am

mikeyM1000 wrote:I simply don't rate Tomic. He's been going downhill for a year and a half and he never went very far uphill in the first place. It would be embarrassing for any top 20 player to lose to Tomic, let alone a top 8 player.

He's not a tough draw for any of the top players.


You are wrong.  As a first round opponent he is one of the most difficult especially with the home crowd advantage, and his career has only just begun.  He is a winner, you'll see.

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Re: Disastrous Draw for Rafito Nadal

Post by mikeyM1000 on Fri Jan 10, 2014 10:52 am

FedererKing wrote:
mikeyM1000 wrote:I simply don't rate Tomic. He's been going downhill for a year and a half and he never went very far uphill in the first place. It would be embarrassing for any top 20 player to lose to Tomic, let alone a top 8 player.

He's not a tough draw for any of the top players.


You are wrong.  As a first round opponent he is one of the most difficult especially with the home crowd advantage, and his career has only just begun.  He is a winner, you'll see.

I hope I am wrong. The guy is almost wasting his career at the moment, it would be good if he could turn it around.

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Re: Disastrous Draw for Rafito Nadal

Post by Daniel on Fri Jan 10, 2014 11:07 am

Give him some time.  Even Federer looked ordinary in his early career.  That spark can happen at any time smiley

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Re: Disastrous Draw for Rafito Nadal

Post by Tenez on Fri Jan 10, 2014 4:19 pm

I think Tomic's problem is essentially that he has a talent for a more aggressive game but like many chose the physical game. Being a tall guy I am not sure he took the right decision, or at least the right balance between attack and defense. Having said that he still managed to beat Dolgo at last year AO...but that was essentially done to Dolgo throwing it away.

If his fitness and confidence improve he certainly can be a very top player (even though I don't warm up to him).

But in short I would say he is a Murray with a great FH....so he is bound to be successful soon.

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Re: Disastrous Draw for Rafito Nadal

Post by noleisthebest on Fri Jan 10, 2014 6:58 pm

Delpo joins our debate:

"He's very smart. For sure it's going to be a great experience for him playing on center court against the No. 1 in the world. And also he has the chance to beat Nadal. He's a great player. I think if he has to take one place to have chance to beat Rafa, maybe he will take Melbourne on the Rod Laver Arena. Could be a good chance for him. Also Rafa is really tough player. First round Grand Slam, five sets, it's not easy to beat him."

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Re: Disastrous Draw for Rafito Nadal

Post by Daniel on Fri Jan 10, 2014 7:01 pm

:P Although Rosol and Darcis both blew him off the court haha

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