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It is time to predict RG & Wimbledon for TOP 4

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It is time to predict RG & Wimbledon for TOP 4

Post by paulcz on Wed May 22, 2013 9:45 pm

The most important tennis season knocks at the door, so how our top favorites look before the start. My prediction and ideas are here.

If Nole plays on his top, then he is able to win on all surfaces (BO3 & BO5 formats) against all players with their possible peak form atm. As the most difficult surface and matchup for him looks grass with well playing Fed. Even here I think that very good serving and returning Nole would have a fair chance to succeed against Fed plaing with his possible best tennis at the present. But his target must be RG and nothing else.

Fed needs to avoid Nadal for sure and then he needs Rome draw to avoid facing two TOP4 in a row at GS to have a chance to succeed. I would be really surprised if Fed wins any BO5 match against Nole, Murray, Nadal bar Wimbledon (with Nadal no way at all). IMO his chance to succeed in RG is very low. If he gets in a match to 5th setter within the first three rounds, then I would rather see him to leave it asap and have a rest and start practising on the grass. If Fed plays with Ferrer/Berd RG semi, then I would go rather with them. Feru should win at least once against Fed and this would be a great opportunity. Fed has a very good chance to go through Murray in their possible semi at Wimbledon.

It is a big question mark how the season will develop for Murray. His lost matches on clay disrupted his focus and calm. His game came back to passivity and his broken fortitude is not promising.

Nadal did not lose anything from his move and his well timed moonballing from the distant back court is „unbelievable“, his serve looks better than before. Actually I have written about his tennis handwriting quite enough. With his recent results he surely belongs to the favorites for following GS.

Some top players struggle with injuries Delpo, Stan, Murray so that this Wimbledon could be a bit suprising with a youngster to appear in semi. Let's see what happens.

My only wish is Nole wins RG and that is ok with me for this year.

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Re: It is time to predict RG & Wimbledon for TOP 4

Post by noleisthebest on Wed May 22, 2013 10:53 pm

Top 4...

Toni Nadal seems to have caught that golden fish that grants three wishes, for his biggest one has come true:

"Joking about Nadal's main rivals, Toni said: "I hope now Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic will get injured"

The fish seems to have been in the generous BUY ONE GET ONE FREE mood and decided to throw Murray and Del Potro in as well ....


So, a recovering Djokovic, a warming-up Federer and....a "good for the show" Ferrer are left in the conversation for Roland Garros...unless somebody like Paire has one of those days when everything goes your way...and somehow makes it last for two weeks.

If Nole is fully recovered, he is the favourite for RG. If not, it's 50-50, because the potential niggle may play on his mind in case he gets down on himself during the match for whatever reason (hostile crowd, another uncomfortable landing on the injured ankle etc...)

Wimbledon? I say if he wins RG, he may go on to win there as well. Grass ain't what it used to be and confidence is a wonderful thing.

Federer: difficult one to work out at the moment, I think his back is fragile but his will to play is stronger, he won't allow it to play with his mind. When he is truly fired up, he can win anything. I can't see him fired up against Nadal though, because for Federer, battling Nadal on clay has become Sisyphus task. Only if he meets somebody other than Nadal or Djokovic in the final, can he win RG this year.
If he plays Nole in Paris, the crowd will go wild for him and that can affect Nole, but I think this year it won't have the same result as in 2011. Federer plays a lot more relaxed against Novak and I would certainly love to see that final, it's a win-win situation for me.
In Wimbledon, Fed should shine; I would like the organisers there to do something about either grass or balls, to make it a bit quicker, tennis has become ridiculous in Wimbledon now: when strong and fit base-liners pick up their racquets they ruin the beauty of all-court tennis that has to be a must on a grass court. It's only a few weeks a year, for crying out loud!

Murray: I don't like his customary cowardice and caution: he always pulls out of tournaments, Davis Cup to "protect" himself, to keep himself for slams, to this to that....Faint heart never won fair lady!, let alone RG or Wimbledon. I think Murray is past his peak and his relationship with Lendl could end soon.
Murray has reached dead end with him in my opinion.

Nadal: so long as he is allowed to fuel his muscles with magic stuff, his knee will be healthy until he loses to , God willing, Nole in Paris.
Then...we won't see him in Nole's half for a long time...and he will be scrambling around various tournaments losing more and more confidence as his losses to Novak start growing in number.

I observed the body language carefully between the two during Monte Carlo presentations ceremony and concluded that Nole really owns Nadal, although Nadal still thinks he can beat him. That is why I think Nole tanked his match in Rome...he knows he is in Nadal's head and is doing all those little digs into his memory asking all those questions Nadal cannot answer with full assurance.


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Re: It is time to predict RG & Wimbledon for TOP 4

Post by Tenez on Thu May 23, 2013 12:13 am

Paul you are aware that Murray won;t be playing the fO...nor will Delpo.

For me it is very simple.

I see Djoko and Nadal at equal chances roughly. Nadal if Djoko gets out first, Djoko he he gets to the final v Nadal.

Then in 3rd it still has got to be Federer. Federer is simply troubled by Nadal and his back...if he doesn't suffer from either then he can certainly produce the tennis to beat anybody.

Berdych no chance, Delpo is out, Ferrer no chance v Djoko and not much v Nadal in Bo5.

I do not see many challenger on clay. Gulbis can certainly hurt....but best of 5? especially after that nearly-win defeat again!

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Re: It is time to predict RG & Wimbledon for TOP 4

Post by BlueClay on Thu May 23, 2013 3:27 am

For me for the FO, it is only a two-horse race between Nadal and Djokovic. Everybody else has almost a zero chance imo. I give Nadal the edge over Djokovic, maybe 60-40 or so but I will need to see the draw first.

For Wimbledon I can't predict anything yet. Need to see who is going to win the FO. I will say I do not think Federer will defend the W title. I hope he can shock me and prove me wrong.

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Re: It is time to predict RG & Wimbledon for TOP 4

Post by gallery play on Thu May 23, 2013 3:41 pm

BlueClay wrote:For me for the FO, it is only a two-horse race between Nadal and Djokovic. Everybody else has almost a zero chance imo. I give Nadal the edge over Djokovic, maybe 60-40 or so but I will need to see the draw first.

I agree on this

For Wimbledon Federer and Murray could be in the mix too, although it's very uncertain in what shape they'll be. So for now Wimbledon is pretty much the same story as RG

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Re: It is time to predict RG & Wimbledon for TOP 4

Post by paulcz on Thu May 23, 2013 4:16 pm

Becker tips Djokovic to take Nadal's crown. Would be good to have a former players opinion poll to RG


http://www.espn.co.uk/tennis/sport/story/208657.html#8dWU7oDUtBHIkpwW.99

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Re: It is time to predict RG & Wimbledon for TOP 4

Post by noleisthebest on Thu May 23, 2013 4:18 pm

Wilander votes Djokovic as his favourite.
Ivanisevic, who is always a safe voter chooses Nadal and comments on Murray, Djokovic and Federer, as well:
http://video.uk.msn.com/?mkt=en-gb&vid=28f64577-95e9-4bf1-8669-9bd3dce6a7ba&from=sharepermalink&src=v5:share:sharepermalink:

Tbh, a lot of times, these pundits carry on like Eurovison song voting: it's all political. Wilander is the only one who does not seem to have an agenda and speaks his mind freely. Henman, as well.

Borg is the worst by far when it comes to "opinions". I am surprised they never interview and ask Leconte Winking

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Re: It is time to predict RG & Wimbledon for TOP 4

Post by BlueClay on Thu May 23, 2013 6:58 pm

gallery play wrote:
BlueClay wrote:For me for the FO, it is only a two-horse race between Nadal and Djokovic. Everybody else has almost a zero chance imo. I give Nadal the edge over Djokovic, maybe 60-40 or so but I will need to see the draw first.

I agree on this

For Wimbledon Federer and Murray could be in the mix too, although it's very uncertain in what shape they'll be. So for now Wimbledon is pretty much the same story as RG

For Wimbledon, I can't see Federer defending the title. Remember before last year's W win he had not won a slam in 2 1/2 years. I can't see based on his form this year how Federer could possibly be in the mix but as I said above if he goes and surprises me I would be thrilled. I can't pick W yet. I think a lot will depend on who wins the FO this year. If Nadal wins it, I think he has a shot at W as well because he is a huge confidence player. Murray has a shot at W if he can recreate his 2012 form there and I guess Djokovic always has a shot at any slam (even though grass has been his worst surface in the past.)

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Re: It is time to predict RG & Wimbledon for TOP 4

Post by BlueClay on Thu May 23, 2013 6:59 pm

noleisthebest wrote:Wilander votes Djokovic as his favourite.
Ivanisevic, who is always a safe voter chooses Nadal and comments on Murray, Djokovic and Federer, as well:
http://video.uk.msn.com/?mkt=en-gb&vid=28f64577-95e9-4bf1-8669-9bd3dce6a7ba&from=sharepermalink&src=v5:share:sharepermalink:

Tbh, a lot of times, these pundits carry on like Eurovison song voting: it's all political. Wilander is the only one who does not seem to have an agenda and speaks his mind freely. Henman, as well.

Borg is the worst by far when it comes to "opinions". I am surprised they never interview and ask Leconte

Borg picks Nadal as the favourite to win the FO:

http://www.rolandgarros.com/en_FR/news/articles/2013-05-13/201305131368459791587.html

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Re: It is time to predict RG & Wimbledon for TOP 4

Post by Tenez on Thu May 23, 2013 7:37 pm

BlueClay wrote:
gallery play wrote:
BlueClay wrote:For me for the FO, it is only a two-horse race between Nadal and Djokovic. Everybody else has almost a zero chance imo. I give Nadal the edge over Djokovic, maybe 60-40 or so but I will need to see the draw first.

I agree on this

For Wimbledon Federer and Murray could be in the mix too, although it's very uncertain in what shape they'll be. So for now Wimbledon is pretty much the same story as RG

For Wimbledon, I can't see Federer defending the title. Remember before last year's W win he had not won a slam in 2 1/2 years. I can't see based on his form this year how Federer could possibly be in the mix but as I said above if he goes and surprises me I would be thrilled. I can't pick W yet. I think a lot will depend on who wins the FO this year. If Nadal wins it, I think he has a shot at W as well because he is a huge confidence player. Murray has a shot at W if he can recreate his 2012 form there and I guess Djokovic always has a shot at any slam (even though grass has been his worst surface in the past.)

Well it's always hard to predict Wimby cause anything can happen there...unless you are peak Federer. I woudl not be surprised to see a complete new player winning it this year: Tsonga, Raonic...or even Dimi. I certainly those 3 could do damage if the conds are fast.

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Re: It is time to predict RG & Wimbledon for TOP 4

Post by gallery play on Thu May 23, 2013 7:37 pm

BlueClay wrote:
gallery play wrote:
BlueClay wrote:For me for the FO, it is only a two-horse race between Nadal and Djokovic. Everybody else has almost a zero chance imo. I give Nadal the edge over Djokovic, maybe 60-40 or so but I will need to see the draw first.

I agree on this

For Wimbledon Federer and Murray could be in the mix too, although it's very uncertain in what shape they'll be. So for now Wimbledon is pretty much the same story as RG

For Wimbledon, I can't see Federer defending the title. Remember before last year's W win he had not won a slam in 2 1/2 years. I can't see based on his form this year how Federer could possibly be in the mix but as I said above if he goes and surprises me I would be thrilled. I can't pick W yet. I think a lot will depend on who wins the FO this year. If Nadal wins it, I think he has a shot at W as well because he is a huge confidence player. Murray has a shot at W if he can recreate his 2012 form there and I guess Djokovic always has a shot at any slam (even though grass has been his worst surface in the past.)

It's a case of "so far, yet so close" i guess. Imagine Nadal running into a crazy serving and one-two punching hard hitter in the first week...
If anything like that happens again, Federer will instantly be the red hot favourite

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Re: It is time to predict RG & Wimbledon for TOP 4

Post by BlueClay on Thu May 23, 2013 11:03 pm

Tenez wrote:
BlueClay wrote:
gallery play wrote:
BlueClay wrote:For me for the FO, it is only a two-horse race between Nadal and Djokovic. Everybody else has almost a zero chance imo. I give Nadal the edge over Djokovic, maybe 60-40 or so but I will need to see the draw first.

I agree on this

For Wimbledon Federer and Murray could be in the mix too, although it's very uncertain in what shape they'll be. So for now Wimbledon is pretty much the same story as RG

For Wimbledon, I can't see Federer defending the title. Remember before last year's W win he had not won a slam in 2 1/2 years. I can't see based on his form this year how Federer could possibly be in the mix but as I said above if he goes and surprises me I would be thrilled. I can't pick W yet. I think a lot will depend on who wins the FO this year. If Nadal wins it, I think he has a shot at W as well because he is a huge confidence player. Murray has a shot at W if he can recreate his 2012 form there and I guess Djokovic always has a shot at any slam (even though grass has been his worst surface in the past.)

Well it's always hard to predict Wimby cause anything can happen there...unless you are peak Federer. I woudl not be surprised to see a complete new player winning it this year: Tsonga, Raonic...or even Dimi. I certainly those 3 could do damage if the conds are fast.

I can't see that happening and for sure not Tsonga, he wil never win a slam imo.

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Re: It is time to predict RG & Wimbledon for TOP 4

Post by BlueClay on Thu May 23, 2013 11:05 pm

gallery play wrote:
BlueClay wrote:
gallery play wrote:
BlueClay wrote:For me for the FO, it is only a two-horse race between Nadal and Djokovic. Everybody else has almost a zero chance imo. I give Nadal the edge over Djokovic, maybe 60-40 or so but I will need to see the draw first.

I agree on this

For Wimbledon Federer and Murray could be in the mix too, although it's very uncertain in what shape they'll be. So for now Wimbledon is pretty much the same story as RG

For Wimbledon, I can't see Federer defending the title. Remember before last year's W win he had not won a slam in 2 1/2 years. I can't see based on his form this year how Federer could possibly be in the mix but as I said above if he goes and surprises me I would be thrilled. I can't pick W yet. I think a lot will depend on who wins the FO this year. If Nadal wins it, I think he has a shot at W as well because he is a huge confidence player. Murray has a shot at W if he can recreate his 2012 form there and I guess Djokovic always has a shot at any slam (even though grass has been his worst surface in the past.)

It's a case of "so far, yet so close" i guess. Imagine Nadal running into a crazy serving and one-two punching hard hitter in the first week...
If anything like that happens again, Federer will instantly be the red hot favourite

Sure it could happen but I am going to go out on a limb right now and say Fed won't win W 2013. I can't predict who will win it yet. I need to see who wins the FO and see the W draw first.

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Re: It is time to predict RG & Wimbledon for TOP 4

Post by BlueClay on Fri May 24, 2013 7:38 am

John McEnroe picks Nadal to win FO:

"McEnroe believes that Nadal would have to have an “off day” in order to be eliminated.

“It’s possible he might be caught off guard in a match, but it’s unlikely that someone can still beat him in a best‑of‑five,” he states"

He then goes on to say that the only guy he thinks that can realistically beat Nadal at the FO is Djokovic.

http://www.tennisgrandstand.com/2013/05/20/john-mcenroe-on-roland-garros-semi-for-federer-would-be-solid-big-hitter-could-defeat-nadal/

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Re: It is time to predict RG & Wimbledon for TOP 4

Post by Tenez on Fri May 24, 2013 8:22 am

BlueClay wrote:
He then goes on to say that the only guy he thinks that can realistically beat Nadal at the FO is Djokovic.[url=http://www.tennisgrandstand.com/2013/05/20/john-mcenroe-on-roland-garros-semi-for-federer-would-be-solid-big-hitter-could-defeat-nadal/
[/quote[/url]]

Ouah....That's what I call news!

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Re: It is time to predict RG & Wimbledon for TOP 4

Post by noleisthebest on Fri May 24, 2013 9:27 am

This all reminds me very much of how pundits were before the 2011 Wimbledon final....the same old stupid talk: can Nole beat Nadal over the best of 5...

http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/tennis/9528905.stm

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Re: It is time to predict RG & Wimbledon for TOP 4

Post by BlueClay on Sat May 25, 2013 5:35 am

[quote="Tenez"]
BlueClay wrote:
He then goes on to say that the only guy he thinks that can realistically beat Nadal at the FO is Djokovic.[/quote]

Ouah....That's what I call news!

Yes, it is not exactly groundbreaking news.

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