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Post by noleisthebest on Fri Jan 11, 2013 4:47 pm

Tenez wrote: Those 2 will get nowhere once they lose a step. Like Nadal. They have not got the talent to win like Fed without being 120%. And their career end will prove my point. They will not win anything after 27. You have read it here first.

I don't know about Murray, but disagree about Nole. In case you've forgotten, he's turning 26 this May, so by your calculation, he won't win anything in 2015.
We did bet on this didn't we ATP 250: Sydney, Auckland - Page 3 123628122

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Post by Tenez on Fri Jan 11, 2013 5:02 pm

Yes...they are still 25 remember...and I said after after 27....but I think even at 27 they would win much less....if anything. 2013 shoudl be their best year...but downhill from there.

...even for Djoko. This game of running miles won't last too long.

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Post by noleisthebest on Fri Jan 11, 2013 5:22 pm

Tenez wrote:Yes...they are still 25 remember...and I said after after 27....but I think even at 27 they would win much less....if anything. 2013 shoudl be their best year...but downhill from there.

...even for Djoko. This game of running miles won't last too long.

Running or not, I think he'll be in his prime till Rio.
For me, it will be interesting to see how his game changes as years roll by. His legs are one of his main weapons, but so is his focus.
He, too, also benefit from slight speeding up of courts.

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Post by Tenez on Fri Jan 11, 2013 6:16 pm

yes but focus is really difficult to keep on as well...especially when it needs to be so intense.

I don't think he will benefit from fast court as much.

Isn't slow AO is best slam?

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Post by noleisthebest on Fri Jan 11, 2013 8:21 pm

Tenez wrote:yes but focus is really difficult to keep on as well...especially when it needs to be so intense.

I don't think he will benefit from fast court as much.

Isn't slow AO is best slam?
Why do you think faster courts should benefit him in particular?
They would just make him play more like he used to, and he's got more fame now then say in 2007.
I think it would be good for him

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Post by sphairistike on Fri Jan 11, 2013 8:42 pm

Tenez wrote:yes but focus is really difficult to keep on as well...especially when it needs to be so intense.

You hit the nail on the head here Tenez. It is also one of the reason why "Father Time" catches up or whatever people say and why the champions who won so many matches start getting worse results despite having better tennis technique and still being "young" in terms of pure physique and adapting to newer generations. There are a few exceptions yes, and some cases where they just cannot adapt, etc.

For me, Fed's case is different as despite all the matches etc. he used to win most his matches with ruthless efficiency and pretty easily. This also explains why he has never been really used to close encounters and can lose those close 5 setters and hence does not have a great 5th set record. This negative stat is due to the fact that almost every time he wins he does it so easily that he does not have big mental scars from them. Yes, true, he needs some focus as his deliveries have to be inch perfect, but usually his focus is "natural" or maybe automatic is a better word in his case, and we can see that from his matches.

For Nole, IMHO, it is different. Even in his annus mirabilis he has had so many close matches that were decided by a few points and/or where he had match points against him that he needed a "focused" focus (far from "natural" or automatic) to win those matches and they had a mental toll which could explain the results end of 2011 for instance. These catch up with you even faster than the physical hit with the years, so even if he is still in his peak at 27 from a physical and/or tennis point of view, his mind won't be as focused and all those close matches would be losses... We saw some hints of that this year, e.g FO vs. Nadal or USO vs. Murray, but he also won quite a few close ones, e.g. FO vs. Tsonga and/or Shanghai vs. Murray. This year we'll see it even more with more close matches lost. 2014 onwards he won't be able to win close matches anymore I'd respectfully say (except maybe against much lower ranked players who are still young and inexperienced).

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Post by Tenez on Fri Jan 11, 2013 10:20 pm

Yep Sphair. Essentially I woudl say that Fed produced his talent by being mentally detached from the match. He played as if he did not matter...when it mattered most....that was really his mental strength. Plus he loves the game ( I mean playing) and has the luxury to play with creativity which means he doesn't get bored like someone who's task is to retrieve 1000s of would-be-winners.

Regarding Djoko and Murray, I simply believe that the new generation will quickly cath up with them , like they all caught up with Hewitt, accelerating their decline. Murray will struggle moving this muscle mass injury free for long.

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Post by noleisthebest on Fri Jan 11, 2013 10:25 pm

How is the new generation going to catch up?
Fresher legs, taller players blasting them off court or stg else?

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Post by Tenez on Fri Jan 11, 2013 10:33 pm

Like the new Murray, Nadal and Djoko caught up with Federer...except that those 3 are not nearly ahead of the pack as Fed was in his prime. I woudl say typically both ways...blasting them of court for some and retrieving better than them for others.

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Post by noleisthebest on Fri Jan 11, 2013 10:38 pm

Tenez wrote:Like the new Murray, Nadal and Djoko caught up with Federer...except that those 3 are not nearly ahead of the pack as Fed was in his prime. I woudl say typically both ways...blasting them of court for some and retrieving better than them for others.

I think that's not going to be as easy as it sounds. Despite fitness, improved stamina etc, Nole is one fantastic mover and an outstanding natural athlete, and that's a gift/strength he brings to the table.
I noticed it's been quite underestimated or misread by most.

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Post by sphairistike on Fri Jan 11, 2013 10:42 pm

I'm not underestimating Nole and my point was more towards him than towards Murray. Nole, even at his best dominance, i.e. 2011, had to win a lot of super close matches and managed to do that for a lot of them in a row, which defies the odds and showed mental strength (no matter what the reason of this mental strength is), but people tend to underestimate the toll the mental takes every time you have to save set points and match points and win super close encounters when your back is against the wall. If you make a habit of it, you end up by losing more and more of them when you started by winning most of them... We are yet to see Murray dominate and it might never happen.

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Post by noleisthebest on Fri Jan 11, 2013 10:50 pm

Spahir,
I get your point. But let's be totally honest here, unless both Fed and Rafa were injured in 2011, Novak did one helluva job to dominate them all in 2011.
For crying out loud he oblitereated Nadal mentally and crushed him as a player in those 7 consecutive finals.
Remember all the Rafa's-going-to-break'Fed's-slam-record talk after he completed career slam in 2010.
Did anyone in their sane mind dare predict that was going to be the end of him at that zenith point of his career when he seemed to be on top of he world?
Novak does not have the crushing Federer game and nobody can crush now like Federer did 7 years ago, conditions have changed, to start with.
If it was possible, Federer would still be doing it despite the age talk. To me, he is as good a player as he has always been.

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Post by sphairistike on Fri Jan 11, 2013 11:04 pm

I agree with you there nitb, and I thought I made it clear that what he did defied all odds. But it is taking its toll mentally and it started showing as early as late 2011 through 2012. I'm thinking 2013 is his last year when dominance is still possible, afterwards, no chance. It's just my opinion though...

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Post by noleisthebest on Fri Jan 11, 2013 11:09 pm

sphairistike wrote:I agree with you there nitb, and I thought I made it clear that what he did defied all odds. But it is taking its toll mentally and it started showing as early as late 2011 through 2012. I'm thinking 2013 is his last year when dominance is still possible, afterwards, no chance. It's just my opinion though...

Tbh, I never watched those matches, I just couldn't. They were draining even to watch for me, I can imagine what it must have been like to play them esp that AO final last year.
Who wants to go through that agony again?
I think only Nadal would still do it.You could see Nole's had enough of it in that USO final. Had he not played that AO final, USO final 2012 would've been a piece of cake for him, although the wind & scheduling played a considerable part there.
I am not trying to undermine Murray's win, just think he really won it on muscles and by wanting it more than Nole.

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Post by sphairistike on Fri Jan 11, 2013 11:12 pm

So we agree then nitb? ATP 250: Sydney, Auckland - Page 3 1071211947

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Post by Tenez on Fri Jan 11, 2013 11:17 pm

noleisthebest wrote:
I think that's not going to be as easy as it sounds. Despite fitness, improved stamina etc, Nole is one fantastic mover and an outstanding natural athlete, and that's a gift/strength he brings to the table.
I noticed it's been quite underestimated or misread by most.

Coudl not you say that of Hewitt at the time he was dominating? It;s like each time there is a playedr dominating we want to grant him 4 years of undisputed reign at the top...but it;s very tough out there and Djoko is not winning his match easily to last that long. I think you are over-estimating him as much as some might indeed underesimating him. But objectively, besides his retrieving skills, his shots do not impress me. Far from it if anything.

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Post by noleisthebest on Fri Jan 11, 2013 11:18 pm

sphairistike wrote:So we agree then nitb? ATP 250: Sydney, Auckland - Page 3 1071211947

I can see the effects, but I don't think they are permanent. It's just like anything in life, when you want something badly, nothing is going to stop you going for it.
That's why motivation and hunger are the key things I try to gauge when I watch players in a tournament.
Of course, they all want to win, but some of them more than the others and that's when they play their very best.
I particularly enjoyed the O2 final this year.
In some ways, I'm glad it ended in straights, but would not have minded seeing a third set (so long as Nole won ATP 250: Sydney, Auckland - Page 3 4006036031)

With Nadal out of the picture, I hope this year brings more Nole Fed finals, and that Fed keeps his number 2 ranking.

Personally, I think it's a great shame Novak and Roger have this age gap, they would have made a great rivalry had they been contemporaries, despite their games not fitting like a glove aesthetically, the battle element is always great there.
With Fedal, it was always predictable and ugly (for me), with Nole and Fed, not so brutal and vulgar.

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Post by Tenez on Fri Jan 11, 2013 11:21 pm

noleisthebest wrote: But let's be totally honest here, unless both Fed and Rafa were injured in 2011, Novak did one helluva job to dominate them all in 2011.

Eh no he did not dominate Federer really. Fed had 2 points for 2/1 H2H in slams. That's not domination, regardless which way the point goes.

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Post by noleisthebest on Fri Jan 11, 2013 11:28 pm

Tenez wrote:
noleisthebest wrote: But let's be totally honest here, unless both Fed and Rafa were injured in 2011, Novak did one helluva job to dominate them all in 2011.

Eh no he did not dominate Federer really. Fed had 2 points for 2/1 H2H in slams. That's not domination, regardless which way the point goes.

ok then, take THIS ATP 250: Sydney, Auckland - Page 3 965238317
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v9X48FqmoJI

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Post by noleisthebest on Fri Jan 11, 2013 11:30 pm

btw, I loved that smash. I'm going to do it one day with one of my junk racquets ATP 250: Sydney, Auckland - Page 3 1071211947

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YqP-ZLPauy0

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Post by Tenez on Fri Jan 11, 2013 11:52 pm

I smashed one just last Sunday...on astro-turf (fake grass). Was fun...I had not broken one for 20 years probably (willingly that is).

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Post by noleisthebest on Fri Jan 11, 2013 11:56 pm

Tenez wrote:I smashed one just last Sunday...on astro-turf (fake grass). Was fun...I had not broken one for 20 years probably (willingly that is).
ATP 250: Sydney, Auckland - Page 3 83870220
I go through phases of wanting to bang the racquet against my head like Youzhny, biting it, and just stopping the swing an inch before it hits the ground ATP 250: Sydney, Auckland - Page 3 2998105013

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Post by noleisthebest on Sat Jan 12, 2013 9:29 am

In Auckland we have a tournament winner:
Ferrer!
He beat Kohlschreiber 7:6 6:1

In Sydney, Tomic won the first set against Anderson. 3:2 for Big Kev in the second.

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Post by paulcz on Sat Jan 12, 2013 10:23 am

sphairistike wrote:I'm not underestimating Nole and my point was more towards him than towards Murray. Nole, even at his best dominance, i.e. 2011, had to win a lot of super close matches and managed to do that for a lot of them in a row, which defies the odds and showed mental strength (no matter what the reason of this mental strength is), but people tend to underestimate the toll the mental takes every time you have to save set points and match points and win super close encounters when your back is against the wall. If you make a habit of it, you end up by losing more and more of them when you started by winning most of them... We are yet to see Murray dominate and it might never happen.

We need to get used to that sheer dominance as Fed ruled between 2004-2007 is just an illusion these days. Especially when there are two great base liners + Fed, + (Morybundus) in particular. 2011 was exceptional year for Nole and all knew that this streak would not be possible to repeat.

Fed´s great serve, fast movement, perfect net game supported superb shot making abilities and natural killing instinct made him so dominant in this period. When conditions were made a bit slowish then Morybundus due to his self destructive game got an edge on Fed also on non-clay surfaces. We have doubts about what is behind it, but it was vital for other players to learn how to beat Roger and some did it. Therefore we have 3 (+1 injured) who can fight for winning a GS, but to win these matches takes a high toll. The present situation is that one is off (injured or something), then we have super elastic and our joyful player in Nole and Andy (as a synthesis of muscles and bruised nerves) and super talented Fed, who is still competitive, but every next match with 2 (+ injured) will show us how long. My prediction is Nole staying at the top for a couple of years, Andy behind him (with less consistency with some „blackouts“), Fed with Morybundus are question marks. At the moment I can not see any big talented youth who could threat Nole and Andy. Nor Tomic, JJ neither Dimitrov nor Raonic.

Nowadays tennis costs youth too pain to get on the top, therefore I assume that Nole with Andy can dominate 2-3 years if staying healthy. It is impossible to see an younger (under 20 years) winning AO, UO or FO. But, it is only a prognosis.

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Post by luvsports! on Sat Jan 12, 2013 10:39 am

tomic wins his inaugural atp title in 3 sets!

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