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Post by barrystar on Sat Aug 10, 2019 12:39 pm

We have a full* line up as the US Open swing gets into gear.

Djoko (1) in the top quarter is seeded to meet Isner (13) in R16 and Fognini (10)/Kyrgios/Kachanov (8) in the QF.  His R32 opponent is Querrey or P-H Herbert - he has the beating of both, but a lively start.  Fognini's R1 is vs. Shapovalov, another #nextgen guy going through the routine of biding his time or drowning under the weight of expectation - call it as you will.  I compared Kyrgios to Icarus after his pronouncement in Washington that he still has it in him, he feels a bit like Godot now.

Fed (2) is in Djoko's half and he's seeded to face Basilashvili (15) in R16, whose R32 is against the winner of Dimitrov vs. Stan, one of three interesting R1 matches.  The high seeds on the other side of this quarter are Medvedev (9) and Tsitsipas (5) - the former's form looks a better bet than the latter's ranking.

In the bottom half Zverev (7) is likely to meet FAA in R32 so we'll see how their respective #nextgen acts are coming on, and the winner is seeded to face the rather stiff challenge of Bautista Agut (11) in R16.  He may be a bit tired out after the Canada scheduling difficulty.  Monfils vs. Tiafoe in R1 may be an entertaining match (Monfils has the same problem as BA).  In the other side of the quarter we have a match which we could have seen in 2006, and we thought we'd probably never see earlier this year - Murray vs. Gasquet, the R32 prize is Thiem (4), who lost convincingly to Medvedev yesterday.  Their subset is bookended by Cilic (14)

Nadal (3) is seeded to meet the mighty Goffin (16) in R16, and Nishikori (6) in the QF - Nishikori's subset is bookended by Coric (12)

I hate to say it, but of the big 3 Nadal's draw is by some distance the least taxing.  Unless he's shagged out after Montreal the final is v. much on his racquet.  

Of the 'bubbling under' guys who are ramping up a bit of form looking towards the WTF only BA, a fellow Spaniard, is in Nadal's half.  Poor old Zverev seems still to be looking for answers if he is going to qualify to make a defence of his biggest win.  In the the top half the likes of Medvedev and Kachanov look to be pulling out their fingers as the WTF beckons (although going deep in back-to-back Masters over a fortnight is not easy).  Thiem is a bit of an unknown quantity, he went back to the comfort of clay after losing R1 Wimbledon, and he is not (yet?) comfortable on HC at the moment.

I can't pretend to find this a particularly fascinating draw, but it will probably tell us a bit more about the USO than Canada.

* I first wrote 'strong', but.....

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Post by summerblues on Sun Aug 11, 2019 9:15 pm

It would be funny - in a sad sort of way -  if the USO SF featured Fed, Rafa, Nole and Andy.

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Post by naxroy on Sun Aug 11, 2019 11:20 pm

Nadal wont play Cincinnati

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Post by Slippy on Mon Aug 12, 2019 2:34 am

Main interest early on here will obviously be to see where Murray is at. Feels he has come back to singles very quickly and he must be very confident in the hip. It’s unlikely he’ll get past Gasquet but it would be fairly amusing if he did and then gave Thiem a tough match.

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Post by barrystar on Mon Aug 12, 2019 5:39 am

Noted that after whining about disrespect at the Wimbledon draw before showing comprehensively that #3 was right for him there, Nadal gets the advantage of his #2 ranking and does a cuckoo job on the Cincinnati draw leaving it lop-sided as hell.

It’s not the pulling out, that’s legitimate for him with his record. It’s the contrast with the prima donna shit when Wimbledon try to do the right thing for the right reasons and get it right.

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Post by BEL19VE on Mon Aug 12, 2019 7:15 am

Federer was planning to do the same thing this clay court season though, he said he'd play Madrid and depending on how deep he went there, he would play Rome. 
He lost to Thiem in the QF, after having match point. He gave an interview after that saying he wasn't sure about playing Rome, was a 5050 decision, then eventually did play. 
Thus I deduce, if he had got to the semis or further in Madrid, I think it's very likely that he would have pulled out of Rome, and by then the draw would have been made. 

As for the Nadal moaning about Wimbledon seeding. A journalist probed Nadal on the topic, it's not like he pre-emptively brought it up. I think Nadal made a fair point in talking about why it applies to Wimbledon but not French. For example Nadal was seeded 6 for FO 2015, and seeded 4 for FO 2016 and 2017. In 2017 he ended up winning and barely dropped games (forget sets) on way to victory. Even on bad annual form, he shouldn't be seeded outside the top 2 on French, in my opinion.

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Post by raiders_of_the_lost_ark on Wed Aug 14, 2019 10:46 am

Rain is going to play some spoilers again. Lots of matches getting canceled daily.

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Post by Tenez on Wed Aug 14, 2019 10:19 pm

RUBLEV beats Stan convincingly... Did not watch it but looks like he is recovering from injury and fi ding his strides again. 

Amasing the number of youngsters going through bad patches mainly due to injuries.

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Post by sphairistike on Thu Aug 15, 2019 9:39 pm

...and he seems to be beating Federer at least as convincingly...

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Post by Tenez on Thu Aug 15, 2019 11:18 pm

Yep... Didn't watch but must have been a poor perf from Fed.... Or clinical from Rub.

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Post by Turron on Fri Aug 16, 2019 1:35 pm

Bogbrush mentioned earlier this year that power was a key element in beating the top guys. Rublev was very strong on serve and surprised Fed regularly with his speed, placement and power on his return and ground strokes. It was a good win but I don't think Fed will be concerned about it.

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Post by Slippy on Sat Aug 17, 2019 1:25 am

Medvedev crushes Rublev. Feels as though he’s putting in a lot of very dominant displays. Other than Rafa, no one has got near him in either Canada or Cincy. Will be interesting to see if he can beat Novak if they meet.

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Post by Tenez on Sat Aug 17, 2019 1:32 pm

I was surprised how easily Medv lost to Nadal. This is typically the Nadal effect....one has to get used to the spin....once that sorted, I 'd expect medv to get a much closer match next time around.

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Post by BEL19VE on Sun Aug 18, 2019 12:53 am

hahahah djokovic

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Post by BEL19VE on Sun Aug 18, 2019 12:54 am

Djokovic was so meek, I have a feeling if they play at the US he'd seriously step it up.
Nadal laid the perfect template to beat Medvedev.

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Post by naxroy on Sun Aug 18, 2019 8:38 am

Nadal win gets more value now

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Post by summerblues on Sun Aug 18, 2019 9:45 am

On vacation, so did not see Medvedev vs Nole. But Medvedev is getting serious results this year.

My worry about Medvedev is not so much the score vs Rafa. After all Delpo lost to Fed at AO09 6:3 6:0 6:0, then lost easily to Rafa at IW and yet, by the end of the year he had won the USO, beaten Rafa 3 times, and almost beat Fed at RG.

My biggest worry with Medvedev is that he at times looks a little underpowered.

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Post by Tenez on Sun Aug 18, 2019 5:35 pm

From the clip I saw I wasn't impressed by Medv. I agree with Decima that at the Uso, Djoko will fight a bit harder unless he felt a pain in his arm when leading 63 32 in the final. 

However I must say that Medv scores before have been convincing so he may have weapons I still cannot see.

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Post by BEL19VE on Sun Aug 18, 2019 8:36 pm

I feel Djokovic, with the exception of a few matches where he's red-lined, has actually been quite conservative in his play since his comeback in mid 2018.
Medvedev is the sort of player that can be bullied around if you attack. Federer would make mince meat out of him. Yet Djokovic has struggled in all 3 times he's played Med this year, losing twice.
If they play at the USO, Djokovic will definitely win as it's exhausting for Med to keep up his gamestyle in a BO5 against Nole.

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Post by Tenez on Sun Aug 18, 2019 11:03 pm

DEC1M8 wrote:I feel Djokovic, with the exception of a few matches where he's red-lined, has actually been quite conservative in his play since his comeback in mid 2018.
Medvedev is the sort of player that can be bullied around if you attack. Federer would make mince meat out of him. Yet Djokovic has struggled in all 3 times he's played Med this year, losing twice.
If they play at the USO, Djokovic will definitely win as it's exhausting for Med to keep up his gamestyle in a BO5 against Nole.

wow...agree with all that.

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Post by BEL19VE on Mon Aug 19, 2019 2:51 am

Tenez wrote:
wow...agree with all that.
Let me check which side of the sky the sun rises this morning drunk

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Post by BEL19VE on Mon Aug 19, 2019 3:07 am

Also Tenez, Medvedev is potentially a definitive negative when it comes to the validity of your theory:

You've said the peak of the current young generation will overtake the peak of Fedalovic, in an absolute sense, even if the racket tech stays as it is currently.

If a player like Rublev or Shapavalov manages to find a way to consistently redline their high risk game, you could argue that their level is a notch above the current ATGs, and tennis has naturally progressed upwards. I would still disagree, but I would find it hard to disprove your hypothesis, as you would point to them hitting the ball in at 100mph on every shot.
However, if it turns out the player who dominates in ~2022 when current top 3 have retired is Medvedev, your stance will go from unlikely to absurd.

It's so obvious watching Med, that he cannot be compared to the current big 3 at their best. He doesn't hit the ball very hard and most of his shots are either cross court or central. His serve is normal for his height, and still not as good as Federer's. His movement is good for his size, but he doesn't have the ability to counter-attack like Nadal.

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