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Tenez: Nadal 'lucky' with his draw

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Tenez: Nadal 'lucky' with his draw  Empty Tenez: Nadal 'lucky' with his draw

Post by DEC1M8 on Fri Jun 28, 2019 2:09 pm



Last edited by DEC1M8 on Thu Jul 04, 2019 11:48 pm; edited 2 times in total (Reason for editing : Edit: Projected Path)

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Tenez: Nadal 'lucky' with his draw  Empty Re: Tenez: Nadal 'lucky' with his draw

Post by sphairistike on Fri Jun 28, 2019 7:15 pm

DEC1M8 wrote:
SF- Federer

Thumbs Up
He is lucky and Murphy's law was on Federer's side as the 50-50 got the worst outcome for him. Nadal is lucky as his 3rd seed happens to be the same as if he had kept 2nd seed Let's hope Kyrgios gets a grip and perfects the sliding underhand serve!  Cheers

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Tenez: Nadal 'lucky' with his draw  Empty Re: Tenez: Nadal 'lucky' with his draw

Post by DEC1M8 on Fri Jun 28, 2019 10:27 pm

Absolutely moronic analysis.

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Post by Daniel2 on Sat Jun 29, 2019 1:45 am

He has lucked out in terms of Djok and a few of the other big hitters, but I have to admit I'm very glad Fed is avoiding Kyrgios and Shap round 2 and 3. 

Not sure why you feel Tsonga these days is a threat... or Thiem on grass.  Not exactly fooling any of us there, Amrit.

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Post by DEC1M8 on Sat Jun 29, 2019 2:54 am

One would have to be dim to genuinely believe, as many on this forum are insisting, that Nadal got lucky with the draw.

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Post by sphairistike on Mon Jul 01, 2019 3:31 pm

DEC1M8 wrote:Absolutely moronic analysis.

You are the moron Amrit and I am pretty sure if we compare our respective IQs, you would clearly show as much dumber than I.

This was not an analysis whatsoever. It was just the statement that your idol, who is nothing else than a "self-serving bellend", got lucky that his seeding 3 or 2 did not matter. You can put whatever list of opponents before SF, it does not matter as much - unless there was someone who had won Wimbledon recently or at least had gotten far - only for a moron like you it would. His seeding should bring him to SF and his being on Fed's side instead of Djoker's side is his main luck as it is all he was afraid of when he was put seeded 3 and was complaining about it like a cry baby, you should ask him if he has any clue of your insignificant existence, which I doubt...

Now, can Kyrgios on his best day beat Rafa? Yes, and it is all I am hoping for, but we have seen recently he has a hard time winning matches, even on grass (OK, he lost to FAA, who is not bad, but still lost relatively early)

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Tenez: Nadal 'lucky' with his draw  Empty Re: Tenez: Nadal 'lucky' with his draw

Post by DEC1M8 on Tue Jul 02, 2019 10:43 am

For Fed and Djokovic, there was a potential big differential between facing  either Nadal or Anderson in the semi.
However for Nadal, having to beat Fed then Djokovic or Djokovic then Federer, does not make a particularly significant difference.

As for the rest of Nadals draw, if you think Kyrgios R2, Tsonga who just lost to Fed 7-5 in 3rd set Halle, Cilic R4 is ‘lucky’, you should really think twice before making any IQ test jibes.

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Tenez: Nadal 'lucky' with his draw  Empty Re: Tenez: Nadal 'lucky' with his draw

Post by bogbrush on Tue Jul 02, 2019 11:18 am

I think we all know that Nadal got a tough draw, Federer seriously lucked out with Nadal in the semi, and Djokovic got a cupcake that had a bow tied on top after Day 1.

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Post by barrystar on Tue Jul 02, 2019 11:38 am

Of Nadal, Federer, Djoko, I think Nadal's is the toughest draw on paper.

What is totally unpredictable, however, is which of the inconsistent also-rans outside the big 3 will show the best form this Wimbledon.  Nadal's proposed toughest opponents have the game to trouble him, or at least the version of him that turned up from 2012-2017, but they equally have the potential to rollover like lapdogs (Kyrgios is as low as #43 and his opponent #60 Thompson is serving to win the 1st set at 5-3 up).  It's not impossible that guys like FAA, Wawrinka, or Raonic prove to be best of the rest this tournament.

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Post by bogbrush on Tue Jul 02, 2019 11:57 am

Yeah, Kyrgios is totally unknown. I suppose if he does get past his 1st round he at least will know he has to play after everything he's said with Nadal.

At least he gets the 1st set anyway. God, he can serve some bombs - 137mph to win the set.

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Tenez: Nadal 'lucky' with his draw  Empty Re: Tenez: Nadal 'lucky' with his draw

Post by sphairistike on Tue Jul 02, 2019 2:39 pm

bogbrush wrote:I think we all know that Nadal got a tough draw, Federer seriously lucked out with Nadal in the semi, and Djokovic got a cupcake that had a bow tied on top after Day 1.

Federer is almost 38 so he needed some luck. Nadal's is toughest on paper compared to Fed and Nole, yes maybe, but we all know none of his opponents who can hurt him is consistent, especially in slams. And my point has been after all the complaining Rafa did about being seeded 3, he should just sh*t up as he got what he wanted, a similar draw to the one he would have had, had he been seeded 2 and in that sense he got lucky.

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Post by sphairistike on Tue Jul 02, 2019 2:46 pm

DEC1M8 wrote:For Fed and Djokovic, there was a potential big differential between facing  either Nadal or Anderson in the semi.
However for Nadal, having to beat Fed then Djokovic or Djokovic then Federer, does not make a particularly significant difference.

As for the rest of Nadals draw, if you think Kyrgios R2, Tsonga who just lost to Fed 7-5 in 3rd set Halle, Cilic R4 is ‘lucky’, you should really think twice before making any IQ test jibes.

Actually, I can as a lot of your posts show your IQ is not that high and tbh you would need an IQ way above yours to be able to call others moron, especially people whose IQ is above 160. I can bet you your IQ is below 140, and I am being generous as 140 means high intelligence already, but then I guarantee myself a won bet smiley .

Now your claims are stupid as you know all too well that K is a big unknown and had a 50-50 chance to lose in R1, just so happened that after getting bagelled in set 4 he won set 5 6-1. Tsonga may have put a stern resistance against Fed in Halle in best of 3, but Halle plays faster than Wimbledon and Tsonga has never had any chance against the road runners whatsoever at WB, one great example is 2011. And Cilic has had no form whatsoever, unlike the one the previous 2 years who had had good results on grass but even last year he did not do anything good at WB already...

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Tenez: Nadal 'lucky' with his draw  Empty Re: Tenez: Nadal 'lucky' with his draw

Post by Jahu on Tue Jul 02, 2019 4:52 pm

Good match for Fed, just enough for under 2h.

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Tenez: Nadal 'lucky' with his draw  Empty Re: Tenez: Nadal 'lucky' with his draw

Post by sphairistike on Tue Jul 02, 2019 6:33 pm

DEC1M8 wrote:R2- Kyrgios
R3- Shapavalov or Tsonga
R4- Cilic
QF- Thiem
SF- Federer

Thumbs Up

Here, let's revisit this

R2- Kyrgios who just need 5 sets to beat someone who let's face it is not that good
R3- Shapo just lost, so maybe Berankis or Tsonga instead
R4- Cilic/Mannarino or Evans/Basilashvili as really they are all as likely to win 3 or 2 (for the last 2) matches in a row
QF- take your pick as obv. it is not Thiem, Querrey (who just beat him) was actually a better pick, but it could be Rublev who can beat Querrey, or maybe you really wanted to mention Millman there, as he beat Fed in USO 2018 Laugh ... and he just won his match, so still alive in there... But really you must have meant Tiafoe/Fognini (the latter seeming more likely to win the match between them).

Still looks that hard of a draw?? Only real risk I see is Kyrgios giving it all and having a good day, but obv. Nadal had the choice on whether to play R1 on Court 1 or R2 and he wanted CC for R2 to maximize his chances against Kyrgios so he got rid of the Court 1 round early on  Thumbs Up Any other round he loses will not be because of the draw per se but because he has a bad day and the opponent who should lose somehow has a great day and wins.

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Tenez: Nadal 'lucky' with his draw  Empty Re: Tenez: Nadal 'lucky' with his draw

Post by Daniel2 on Tue Jul 02, 2019 7:04 pm

I think it's funny how Nadal fans feel hard done by because Nadal has Kyrgios in the draw...  the number of times he's escaped him and Fed has had to play a near perfect match to beat him.  Nadal's turn is more than overdue... and this Kyrgios might not even be of the same level Fed's previously faced.

But if Kyrgios does turn up, Nadal hasn't got a prayer.


Putting Tsonga as a contender was laughable - as was Thiem, who isn't remotely good on grass.

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Tenez: Nadal 'lucky' with his draw  Empty Re: Tenez: Nadal 'lucky' with his draw

Post by DEC1M8 on Tue Jul 02, 2019 7:06 pm

@Sphair
One could have a hard draw but the run in may get easier if projected players go out.
My reaction, which was shared by many on this forum and by the betting markets, was Nadal’s projected draw was harder than the rest of the top 4.

I think Kyrgios is the main player I’m scared of before the SF. I wouldn’t read too much into him going to 5 today, his MoA is to take the piss against lower rank players but get motivated in bigger matches.

If you disagree and think any of the big 3 had a harder draw, feel free to say who. If you agree he does have the hardest draw, your claim he was lucky with his draw doesn’t hold water.

The way LK communicated this disagreement, with empty physical threats, and your ranting today, was embarrassing.

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Tenez: Nadal 'lucky' with his draw  Empty Re: Tenez: Nadal 'lucky' with his draw

Post by DEC1M8 on Tue Jul 02, 2019 7:13 pm

@Daniel
Nadal has played Kyrgios 6 times, while Federer has only faced Kyrgios 4 times (unless you count Laver Cup exhibition). Nadal will have played him twice in slams by Wednesday, while Fed has only faced him once in slams. And Wimbledon twice, which suits Kyrgios more than USO.
As for Thiem, I never commented on his prospects, your analysis of him being a clay courier was fair, and proven today. Tsonga and Cilic are inconsistent, let’s see how they do.

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Post by sphairistike on Tue Jul 02, 2019 7:20 pm

DEC1M8 wrote:@Sphair
One could have a hard draw but the run in may get easier if projected players go out.
My reaction, which was shared by many on this forum and by the betting markets, was Nadal’s projected draw was harder than the rest of the top 4.

I think Kyrgios is the main player I’m scared of before the SF. I wouldn’t read too much into him going to 5 today, his MoA is to take the piss against lower rank players but get motivated in bigger matches.

If you disagree and think any of the big 3 had a harder draw, feel free to say who. If you agree he does have the hardest draw, your claim he was lucky with his draw doesn’t hold water.

The way LK communicated this disagreement, with empty physical threats, and your ranting today, was embarrassing.
What's embarrassing is your lack of respect to other people and comments like the first one you did to my post. You are clearly not as bright as you think you are and I am pretty sure by now you know you are not that intelligent. If your main aim is to troll, so be it. Anybody on this forum can tell many posts you write are an attempt at reverse jinxing, but come one man.

You may think his draw is not as lucky as usual, and I would agree with that, but my main argument remains unchanged, he got lucky in terms of draw vs. fear of being seeded 3 instead of 2. He would have hated being on Djoker's half much more than what he got instead. You should ask him if you know him...

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Post by DEC1M8 on Tue Jul 02, 2019 7:26 pm

@Sphair
I don’t think there’s a big difference for Nadal between:
Fed SF, Djoko F or Djoko SF, Fed F.

Fed got very unlucky with having Nadal rather than Anderson, as I had to argue earlier.
You can’t agree Nadal has the hardest draw out of the top 4 seeds and simultaneously say he’s lucky with the draw.

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Post by barrystar on Tue Jul 02, 2019 7:37 pm

If the Nadal of W2018 turns up I don't see anyone stopping him before the SF - if the Nadal of W2012-2017 turns up he'll either lose to or be winged by the first decent performer he meets and he hasn't an earthly of winning the title.  Therefore, I think there is a case for saying that, in terms of his chances of winning the title, being seeded #3 was pretty much the most significant part of the draw process for Nadal because it meant Djoko and Fed could not both be safely on the other side of the draw.  Given that starting position, however, I think that the draw putting him on the same side as Federer is marginally better than being on the same side as Djokovic.

Conversely, Federer gained his slight advantage of not being on the same side as Djokovic from the seeding, but the biggest possible advantage from the draw of facing Anderson went to Djoko. 

Outside the top 3, each of them has the beating of all-comers if on decent form.  If any of them does not get to the SF, their form will almost certainly have played a much large part than the draw.  After the SF, the draw process starts to become very relevant.

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Post by DEC1M8 on Tue Jul 02, 2019 7:45 pm

@Barrystar
Yes I agree with that almost entirely. The main concern for me was the possibility of facing Anderson as SF seed. Once that wasn’t possible, the order of Fed or Djo didn’t make a big difference.

Kyrgios R2 is a unique disaster because it’s Nadals second match of his grass court campaign. He could be knocked out before having the chance to settle in and improve during the second week.

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Post by sphairistike on Tue Jul 02, 2019 7:58 pm

DEC1M8 wrote:@Sphair
I don’t think there’s a big difference for Nadal between:
Fed SF, Djoko F or Djoko SF, Fed F.

Fed got very unlucky with having Nadal rather than Anderson, as I had to argue earlier.
You can’t agree Nadal has the hardest draw out of the top 4 seeds and simultaneously say he’s lucky with the draw.
This is what you think, there is a difference, but let us even assume it is not too big of a difference and that he was hoping to be seeded 2 to have a 50-50 chance to avoid Fed in SF. This would have been the way to contradict the only thing I had argued and that was why I had only kept the SF- Fed from your post, as for me that was the part he got lucky with his draw as he is seeded 3.

I totally agree Fed got very unlucky with that, as even if he manages to beat Rafa, he will likely lose the final vs. Djoker, when had Djoker been facing Rafa in SF and Fed be on the other side, Fed would have had very good chances to win the final.

I do not think Nadal got the hardest draw as having better grass court players earlier on and having Djoker in SF would have been much harder, I think Nadal draw is OK and looks much harder for people who do not know the players he is facing or other players in the draw as much as they think. Only real banana peel is R2 with Kyrgios. If you believe this as I do, then surely it is not that hard of a draw.

Thing is with draw, as I was kind of showing when I replaced your Thiem pick for QF by many guys, is there is an inherent contradiction when people look at projected players by seeding and use that only as barometer, as obv. if we go with projected players from seeding then you are already assuming they are all going through their draw as if nothing was difficult on the way. A better way would be to look at all possible guys you can meet by a given point and see who the biggest threat is and why.

Seems for Nadal the biggest threat was Kyrgios surviving R1, which he did but barely, and then being in his super focus mode in R2, with no physical hindrance, and super eager to beat Rafa and be able to execute, which we have not seen from Kyrgios in slams for a very long time. Apart from that, there is no real threat, as Cilic is not the same as in 2018 let alone 2017, and many of the guys you mentioned have a low probability to go as far as their seeding would suggest. One could argue that Wimbledon does not add enough weight on the grass prowess in their seeding  Whistle Yikes Winking .

Even Fed, for whom many seem to think he has had a kind draw, has a big unknown in R1, which is the most difficult R1 you can get, especially when it is a tall guy from RSA, as it is almost like meeting KA in R1 when you have never played him. Also Fed has Isner in his quarter and this is not at all easy. And as we said before he got the worse outcome out of the #2 seeding, which rendered the whole getting promoted to #2 because of his good grass results vs. #3 moot.

One could argue Djoker has the hardest draw, even though he might make it look easy. R1 Kohli is tricky but Nole beat him easily. R2 is easy. R3 if Hurkacz is not easy, he looked good in Dubai, not sure how good he is on grass but he is not bad on fast surfaces. FAA is a difficult R4 as FAA is likely to get there as he is quite professional. Some people on this forum would have added Tsi to the mix but not me. Medvedev as a potential QF is not easy, even though we know it is easier for Djoker, but still, Medvedev took a set off of him at AO, so depending on how good he is on grass vs. hard, could be quite dangerous... his SF seems easier on paper as we know KA has no chance against him, but again, I am not even assuming KA should be there, it could be Khacha or Rao, none of whom is easy...

So yeah, IMHO, Djoker has the hardest draw. And I would have Fed's draw in second because of the bad luck of having Rafa in SF and because of some other points I made above. This is because we are only considering these 3 obv. otherwise many players have harder draws...

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Post by sphairistike on Tue Jul 02, 2019 8:25 pm

@DEC1M8. This is what you may call an analysis, not my first post that was just making a single point. Even though it is only a brief analysis as I have not gone in real detail in the whole draw looking at every potential hurdle...  Thumbs Up

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Post by sphairistike on Tue Jul 02, 2019 8:26 pm

DEC1M8 wrote:@Barrystar
Yes I agree with that almost entirely. 
Funny you should say that and Barry's post is saying a lot of the same things I had been saying in my posts, e.g. about being seeded 2 vs. 3 and how it did not matter much after all and that being seeded 3 facing Fed first is better for Rafa, about how the loss of any of the Big 3 before SF if it happens will be due to form more than the draw, which I had argued in Rafa's case, etc.

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Post by DEC1M8 on Tue Jul 02, 2019 11:25 pm

sphairistike wrote:So yeah, IMHO, Djoker has the hardest draw.
Alright. I agree with you on the point that we should also look at other reasonable alternatives to the players they could face in the run-in. With that in mind let's have a look at the paths, updating for the Day 1&2 results:

Nadal:
R2: Kyrgios
R3: Tsonga (1/14 vs Berankis)
R4: Cilic (Basilashvili)
QF- Querrey (Fognini or Simon)
SF- Federer

Djokovic:
R2- Kudla
R3- Hurkacz (4/9 vs Mayer)
R4- Auger Alissime (Granollers)
QF- Goffin (Medvedev)
SF- Anderson (or yet another fantastic player)

After reviewing this evidence I have now come to realise that you were right all along. You have totally convinced me of your repeated claims of having a 160 IQ. My subpar intelligence was getting in the way of the realisation that Djokovic's opponents are terrifying, Nadal and Federer must be hugely relieved to avoid the likes of Kudla and Goffin.

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Post by sphairistike on Tue Jul 02, 2019 11:57 pm

@DEC1M8, you are just being childish. Use sarcasm all you want but I made my point clear and you agreed with that point, that point being that you should look at all possible opponents at a given round and choose whoever you think is the biggest risk, which also, btw, can mean the same quarter for 2 different players can be relatively easy or hard... 

Now, your opinion can differ to mine when it comes to what draw is harder on grass between the two etc. but really for Nadal R2 is the biggest threat until SF where he is meeting an almost 38 year old man who has more bad days than good days and whose slam results are as a consequence more volatile and for anything in between R2 and SF Rafa should be winning no problem. Djoker on the other hand has a big unknown in R3 and a real threat in R4 and as I said SF could be Rao, who you would consider a big threat on grass but maybe not against Djoker because of the matchup/H2H, or even Khachanov and you cannot tell me this one is easy. Maybe the latter has not been great on grass and lost pretty easily against Djoker last year but at his age, he progresses fast and he did pretty well at the next slam and gave Rafa a run for his money and later in the year beat Djoker in Paris. Kyrgios, on the other hand, has been steadily declining after 2017 and he is not the same unknown as he was in 2014 when he beat Rafa at Wimbledon.

As I said, you have your opinion and I have mine. All I hope is your fear gets realized and Kyrgios steps it up, but if he doesn't and Rafa beats him easily, will you finally acknowledge Rafa's draw is not that hard or will you find yet another excuse?

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Post by naxroy on Wed Jul 03, 2019 12:23 am

It could also happen that Nadal wins because he played well

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Post by Daniel2 on Wed Jul 03, 2019 6:42 pm

lol...  yeah that's gotta be it.  Losing to RANK 100 5 times in row on slow grass proves he isn't a one dimensional chump

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Post by paulcz on Thu Jul 04, 2019 1:00 pm

sphairistike wrote:@DEC1M8, you are just being childish. Use sarcasm all you want but I made my point clear and you agreed with that point, that point being that you should look at all possible opponents at a given round and choose whoever you think is the biggest risk, which also, btw, can mean the same quarter for 2 different players can be relatively easy or hard... 

Now, your opinion can differ to mine when it comes to what draw is harder on grass between the two etc. but really for Nadal R2 is the biggest threat until SF where he is meeting an almost 38 year old man who has more bad days than good days and whose slam results are as a consequence more volatile and for anything in between R2 and SF Rafa should be winning no problem. Djoker on the other hand has a big unknown in R3 and a real threat in R4 and as I said SF could be Rao, who you would consider a big threat on grass but maybe not against Djoker because of the matchup/H2H, or even Khachanov and you cannot tell me this one is easy. Maybe the latter has not been great on grass and lost pretty easily against Djoker last year but at his age, he progresses fast and he did pretty well at the next slam and gave Rafa a run for his money and later in the year beat Djoker in Paris. Kyrgios, on the other hand, has been steadily declining after 2017 and he is not the same unknown as he was in 2014 when he beat Rafa at Wimbledon.

As I said, you have your opinion and I have mine. All I hope is your fear gets realized and Kyrgios steps it up, but if he doesn't and Rafa beats him easily, will you finally acknowledge Rafa's draw is not that hard or will you find yet another excuse?
Clear and true reaction, Sphair. Applause There is nothing interesting or worthy to read from this simple and stupid admirer of an epileptic and retarded  player. Nor do I believe that Kyrgios has a mental or physical strength to beat Nadal today. Roger will have a hard time in the semi on the beaten court. There is only one who can do it and fortunately Whistle

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Post by DEC1M8 on Thu Jul 04, 2019 1:24 pm

Djokovic has a cupcake draw. Kyrgios Nadal today is too tight to call.
I am a voice of reason amidst a cacophony of madness.

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Post by barrystar on Thu Jul 04, 2019 1:29 pm

DEC1M8 wrote:Djokovic has a cupcake draw. Kyrgios Nadal today is too tight to call.
I am the voice of reason amidst a cacophony of madness.

I'm more with you than not, but you overstate your case.  The tightness of Kyrgios v. Nadal stems from the fact that we don't know for sure which Kyrgios will turn up - I suspect that he'll be dispatched with a degree of comfort that makes him look like a paper tiger.  Hindsight may tell us that FAA was a more doughty opponent for Djoko than Kyrgios for Nadal - but sadly that's about as interesting a question as this rather flat Men's tournament has thrown up so far.

It pains me to say this, but the women's draw is currently the more interesting one.

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Post by DEC1M8 on Thu Jul 04, 2019 1:33 pm

I’m saying that the combination of Kyrgios Tsonga Cilic makes his draw harder than Djokovic’s cupcake draw. A lot of this seem to think Djokovic’s joke draw is the hardest of the top 3.

I’m not giving any guarantees as to what happens today.

Kyrgios will be motivated after his entertaining trash talk, but it’s possible he still mentally loses the plot and Nadal cruises. I am extremely nervous ahead of the match regardless.

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Post by sphairistike on Thu Jul 04, 2019 3:24 pm

DEC1M8 wrote:I’m saying that the combination of Kyrgios Tsonga Cilic makes his draw harder than Djokovic’s cupcake draw. A lot of this seem to think Djokovic’s joke draw is the hardest of the top 3.
Again with Cilic? You really are either a moron or so thick that you never listen to others and learn (which in turn makes you remain stupid), or do not know anything about tennis or professional sports and current form. Look, your mega threat is already 2 sets to luv down against Jao Sousa. I rest my case.


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Post by sphairistike on Thu Jul 04, 2019 3:26 pm

paulcz wrote:
sphairistike wrote:@DEC1M8, you are just being childish. Use sarcasm all you want but I made my point clear and you agreed with that point, that point being that you should look at all possible opponents at a given round and choose whoever you think is the biggest risk, which also, btw, can mean the same quarter for 2 different players can be relatively easy or hard... 

Now, your opinion can differ to mine when it comes to what draw is harder on grass between the two etc. but really for Nadal R2 is the biggest threat until SF where he is meeting an almost 38 year old man who has more bad days than good days and whose slam results are as a consequence more volatile and for anything in between R2 and SF Rafa should be winning no problem. Djoker on the other hand has a big unknown in R3 and a real threat in R4 and as I said SF could be Rao, who you would consider a big threat on grass but maybe not against Djoker because of the matchup/H2H, or even Khachanov and you cannot tell me this one is easy. Maybe the latter has not been great on grass and lost pretty easily against Djoker last year but at his age, he progresses fast and he did pretty well at the next slam and gave Rafa a run for his money and later in the year beat Djoker in Paris. Kyrgios, on the other hand, has been steadily declining after 2017 and he is not the same unknown as he was in 2014 when he beat Rafa at Wimbledon.

As I said, you have your opinion and I have mine. All I hope is your fear gets realized and Kyrgios steps it up, but if he doesn't and Rafa beats him easily, will you finally acknowledge Rafa's draw is not that hard or will you find yet another excuse?
Clear and true reaction, Sphair. Applause There is nothing interesting or worthy to read from this simple and stupid admirer of an epileptic and retarded  player. Nor do I believe that Kyrgios has a mental or physical strength to beat Nadal today. Roger will have a hard time in the semi on the beaten court. There is only one who can do it and fortunately Whistle
Thanks, paulcz!  Thumbs Up

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Post by summerblues on Thu Jul 04, 2019 11:25 pm

Looking at the draws from here onwards, it seems to me all of the big three have pretty clear draws to SF. Nole's might actually be marginally the toughest. But still easy.

Shows how pathetic the rest of the field continues to be.

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Post by DEC1M8 on Thu Jul 04, 2019 11:38 pm

Today though, Kyrgios played very well, and it was basically a 5050 match (2 breaks each), Nadal just won because he played the big points better.
Rest of the draw I agree, there isn't much separating the draws.

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Post by legendkillar on Fri Jul 05, 2019 6:55 am

DEC1M8 wrote:Today though, Kyrgios played very well, and it was basically a 5050 match (2 breaks each), Nadal just won because he played the big points better.  
Rest of the draw I agree, there isn't much separating the draws.

Cor I could dine out on how the draw has panned out. I could do that, but I won't. Imagine the fact that Nadal could get to the semi finals and not face a single seed on route.... On paper would make that a cakewalk wouldn't it? If only paper draws were actually reflective of what happens on the court. 

Some of us on this forum had foresight and wisdom not to read to much into the draw. Yes the key was who would get who in the semi's, but the rest of the draw was underwhelming. The highest ranked seeded players some of us observed were horribly out of form. Couple that with the real lack of 'true' grass court specialists. Look who I listed a while back Lopez (37 and Queens winner) and Raonic! I mean that's how uninspiring the draw is. I can't recall a time I've seen a draw whereby I never had confidence that anyone else from the 125 players could trouble the Big 3. 

Now I and everyone else granted the fact Nadal landing Kyrgios in the second round was brutal. Lets be honest though, maybe had Kyrgios not put so much in to trying disrupting Nadal, he might've made much closer. I enjoyed the match because actually Nadal is going to be much stronger coming out of that. Proper fired up. That said, look at the rest of the draw for Nadal. Piss easy. Before you bleat about how the grass court titan that's Tsonga, you can't seriously expect anyone to believe he has a remote chance based on the current form of Nadal? Tsonga nowhere near the player he once was. Let's look at what the route potentially looks for the Big 3 prior to the SF's

Djokovic (Projected)
Hurkacz
FAA
Goffin/Medvedev/Verdasco

Nadal (Projected)
Tsonga
Evans/Sousa
Fognini/Sandgren/Millman/Querrey

Federer (Projected)
Pouille
Schwartzman/Berrentini
Nishikori/Johnson/Struff

And yet you think there is nothing between those? Maybe for Federer/Djokovic, but Nadal? Not a chance and you know it!

I hope that in future when draws of a Grand Slam come out, that you won't get all hormonal and hysterical about who's draw is the hardest. All you need to do is look at the state of the game. Murray is gone, won't get to the heights he once did, same with Wawrinka. That's 2 players right there that could (previously) challenge the Big 3. Seriously now, in a Grand Slam, who could? Yes Tsitsy beat Federer or Kyrgiois beat Nadal years ago, but if we stay true to form, they won't do that consistently and worse of all the Big 3 have aged since. 

I don't really need to say anything else as the draw has spoken for me.

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Post by Slippy on Fri Jul 05, 2019 8:59 am

I hadn’t realised before seeing LK’s post quite how hilariously easy Federer’s draw is. There’s absolutely no possibility of him even been threatened before the SF.

Djokovic definitely has the hardest draw remaining now but obviously compensated by the easier SF.

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Post by legendkillar on Fri Jul 05, 2019 9:18 am

The first part of Federer's draw I would agree piece of piss like Djokovic's.

However, I wouldn't take for granted Federer has it completely easy given last year I doubt anyone gave Big Kev a chance against him.

At a tilt (and a massive one) A Nishi with some guts and a woeful Federer. 

Other than that, the draw has been a peach for them all to be honest.

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Post by barrystar on Fri Jul 05, 2019 9:37 am

legendkillar wrote: a woeful Federer. 

He's been in evidence this year unfortunately.  Watching him and Kyrgios v. Nadal yesterday, he's going to have to up his game, including the consistency of the weight of his shot to pass muster.

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Post by DEC1M8 on Fri Jul 05, 2019 9:40 am

@LK

1. I believe Kyrgios played at a level that none of the remaining players the top 3 will have to face before the semi-finals will reach. LK, you said Kyrgios could have got 'closer'... there were two breaks each for both players and it literally came down to a few crunch points in the TBs.
Kyrgios himself said he played really well and was impressed by Nadal's performance. Unless anyone else gets close to the level of Kyrgios, the R2 itself  means Nadal had the hardest challenge to get to the semi.

2. I agree that projected draw doesn't necessarily match the actual run-in. I also agree that in general the threats to the big 3 have subsided in recent years, the field is pathetic. This leads to point 3...

3. I thought Kyrgios was one of the biggest threats outside the top 3. The fact Nadal not only drew Kyrgios, but in R2, was brutal. If it was Kyrgios projected R4, he probably would have tanked against some no-hope by then and gone home.

4. As for the rest of the draw, again as I said I don't believe anyone before SF for top 3 will be as tough as Nick. If there is a difference between the draws now, it's minuscule. As Slippy says Federer's draw should be comfortable before SF. Djokovic's draw is quite easy too. The toughest is probably Goffin, who got beaten 6-4 6-1 by Federer in Halle. Much worse than Tsonga's effort. Medvedev is poor on grass. Djokovic easily destroyed Hurkacz at the French Open, and will do so again today. Hurkacz, btw, has a 13-14 losing record so far in 2019 in all matches. I've seen FAA a few times and he hasn't impressed me, still a few years away from competing. Nadal beat FAA 6-3 6-3 in Madrid despite Rafa playing a terrible match.
As for Rafa's draw: Tsonga I agree has been on poor form this year, but hasn't dropped a set so far this tournament and nearly beat Fed at Halle. Querrey hasn't been on form this year either, but beat Djokovic in 2016 @SW19. Has the big serve to get it down to TBs, where a few points could be key.
Let's wait and see what happens, but I have a feeling no one will come close to taking a set from Djokovic until the semi.

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Post by legendkillar on Fri Jul 05, 2019 9:45 am

barrystar wrote:
legendkillar wrote: a woeful Federer. 

He's been in evidence this year unfortunately.  Watching him and Kyrgios v. Nadal yesterday, he's going to have to up his game, including the consistency of the weight of his shot to pass muster.

Exactly. He's woeful is like the wheels coming off completely. 

It's whether those left in the field believe they have a chance if Federer is woeful.

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Post by legendkillar on Fri Jul 05, 2019 9:54 am

DEC1M8 wrote:@LK

1. I believe Kyrgios played at a level that none of the remaining players the top 3 will have to face before the semi-finals will reach. LK, you said Kyrgios could have got 'closer'... there were two breaks each for both players and it literally came down to a few crunch points in the TBs.
Kyrgios himself said he played really well and was impressed by Nadal's performance. Unless anyone else gets close to the level of Kyrgios, the R2 itself  means Nadal had the hardest challenge to get to the semi.

2. I agree that projected draw doesn't necessarily match the actual run-in. I also agree that in general the threats to the big 3 have subsided in recent years, the field is pathetic. This leads to point 3...

3. I thought Kyrgios was one of the biggest threats outside the top 3. The fact Nadal not only drew Kyrgios, but in R2, was brutal. If it was Kyrgios projected R4, he probably would have tanked against some no-hope by then and gone home.

4. As for the rest of the draw, again as I said I don't believe anyone before SF for top 3 will be as tough as Nick. If there is a difference between the draws now, it's minuscule. As Slippy says Federer's draw should be comfortable before SF. Djokovic's draw is quite easy too. The toughest is probably Goffin, who got beaten 6-4 6-1 by Federer in Halle. Much worse than Tsonga's effort. Medvedev is poor on grass. Djokovic easily destroyed Hurkacz at the French Open, and will do so again today. Hurkacz, btw, has a 13-14 losing record so far in 2019 in all matches. I've seen FAA a few times and he hasn't impressed me, still a few years away from competing. Nadal beat FAA 6-3 6-3 in Madrid despite Rafa playing a terrible match.
As for Rafa's draw: Tsonga I agree has been on poor form this year, but hasn't dropped a set so far this tournament and nearly beat Fed at Halle. Querrey hasn't been on form this year either, but beat Djokovic in 2016 @SW19. Has the big serve to get it down to TBs, where a few points could be key.
Let's wait and see what happens, but I have a feeling no one will come close to taking a set from Djokovic until the semi.

1) He could've got closer. He's not the first who's tried to unsettle Nadal, however it's not something Nadal falls for twice. Look at Rosol. Kept trying similar tactics and still Nadal beat him. 

Well lets see if that remains the hardest player (that could well be the case for the entire tournament!). I still don't think you are giving FAA enough credit. The one thing he seems to do better than the other would be usurpers is play with consistency and confidence. 

As for the rest. That is how big the gap is. No Murray, Wawrinka or Del Potro even (who gave Nadal a match last year). They were shoe in's for QF's of Slams (even Tsonga in his pomp). They've faded for a multitude of reasons much quicker than Federer, Nadal and Djokovic. Even the new gen after them faded even quicker! 

We are literally pinning our hopes on FAA and Tsitsipas to come of age and be top players. 

Looking further forwards towards the USO. I see the same issues there.

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Post by DEC1M8 on Fri Jul 05, 2019 10:02 am

legendkillar wrote:

1) He could've got closer. He's not the first who's tried to unsettle Nadal, however it's not something Nadal falls for twice. Look at Rosol. Kept trying similar tactics and still Nadal beat him. 
I think the match came down to a few big points, and Nadal raised his game in those points while Kyrgios couldn't. Not sure how it felt to a neutral, but I was bricking it right until 6-3 in the 4th set TB.

legendkiller wrote:Well lets see if that remains the hardest player (that could well be the case for the entire tournament!). I still don't think you are giving FAA enough credit. The one thing he seems to do better than the other would be usurpers is play with consistency and confidence. 
I have seen a few FAA matches, most recently vs Lopez at Queens and vs Nadal at Madrid. In both matches he looked to be quite a bit away from top level. However let's wait and see, if he even takes a set off Djokovic, then I will come back on this thread and give u and Sphair credit for predicting he's a tough opponent.
Nonetheless, if it turns out neither Fed or Djo have an extremely tough match before semis, I think I will be vindicated in saying the Kyrgios match itself made Nadal's path to semi harder.

legendkiller wrote:
As for the rest. That is how big the gap is. No Murray, Wawrinka or Del Potro even (who gave Nadal a match last year). They were shoe in's for QF's of Slams (even Tsonga in his pomp). They've faded for a multitude of reasons much quicker than Federer, Nadal and Djokovic. Even the new gen after them faded even quicker! 
We are literally pinning our hopes on FAA and Tsitsipas to come of age and be top players. 
Looking further forwards towards the USO. I see the same issues there.
On this, we are in complete agreement. It's beyond belief we're in 2019 and not a single youngster/20s has proven their mettle.

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Post by bogbrush on Fri Jul 05, 2019 10:12 am

I'm starting to think that tennis has some serious disadvantages to other sports that's cutting off the supply of new talent that is otherwise going elsewhere. The most obvious one is that football is so incredibly lucractive for even quite ordinary players, and easily accessible for almost anyone on the planet. I don't think it's alone though, there's plenty of other ways a sports-mad young kid can make a guaranteed income. 

Tennis is great so long as you make the elite level, otherwise it's a way to earn what you can at McDonalds.

I can't see another reason why the sport seems to be dying on its feet.

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Post by Tenez on Fri Jul 05, 2019 10:14 am

I was right once again. The real threat for Nadal in such a depleted draw...was Djokovic and Djoko ended in the opposite draw.

To further Nadal's luck, he is likely to meet a tired Federer in slower conds (second week) than the FO.

However, I think with decent weather Federer will win that one.

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Post by DEC1M8 on Fri Jul 05, 2019 10:18 am

Tenez wrote:I was right once again. The real threat for Nadal in such a depleted draw...was Djokovic and Djoko ended in the opposite draw.
What difference does it make. He will have to beat Djokovic to win the title anyway. There's no difference really between Djokovic, then Federer vs Federer, then Djokovic. Last year he drew Djokovic in the semis, can't remember you saying that he was unlucky then.

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Post by legendkillar on Fri Jul 05, 2019 10:54 am

bogbrush wrote:I'm starting to think that tennis has some serious disadvantages to other sports that's cutting off the supply of new talent that is otherwise going elsewhere. The most obvious one is that football is so incredibly lucractive for even quite ordinary players, and easily accessible for almost anyone on the planet. I don't think it's alone though, there's plenty of other ways a sports-mad young kid can make a guaranteed income. 

Tennis is great so long as you make the elite level, otherwise it's a way to earn what you can at McDonalds.

I can't see another reason why the sport seems to be dying on its feet.

The big issue for me is the conditions all too samey. It's only in recent time the AO who have tweaked conditions and for me got much more quality tennis for it. Amazing to think that in tennis you have 3 surfaces that by science alone are different in composition and yet somehow play the same! I mean that's the most impressive display of cloning I have seen since Dolly the sheep.

Take golf. Effectively played on the same surface, grass with the odd sand trap and water and yet the results vary. They find a balance to manipulate conditions to an extent that the best golf wins out. Tennis have got that all wrong at the moment and really need to address that to maintain interest and sell it as sport. 

As with your commercial assessment, tennis costs a fortune to support a child through to adulthood (I wonder if lydian is skint!) for as you say isn't such a lucrative career unless you a hugely successful in results. Now take the US college system. Who seriously goes there with tennis as their primary option? Isner originally played basketball! Given the chance, Football, Baseball and Basketball will top most lists. I'd hazard a bet that the US college system has produced more foreign players than actual American based players! Look at Tomic's attitude to tennis. For him making main draws of Slams is the place to be to get paid. He's not wrong, but how many will try to think on those lines.

Canada seems to be the only place right now producing players who break into the top 100 and higher echelons in recent history. Australia have talent, but fuck me there must be anti-freeze in the gene pool as either they lack real basic common sense (Kyrgios, Tomic) or a massive iron deficiency (De Minaur). Spain churn out players in droves. 

The UK always struggles to produce any sporting talent within the country unless its football, cricket or rugby. We simply don't invest in infrastructure. There's no appetite for tennis unless it attracts foreign investment. 

I just hope tennis returns somewhere to it's glorious past. Have surfaces playing to their true nature. Create more surface specialists. Least it keeps competition healthy and has something for everyone and the true elite will rise to the top. Only way I can see the sport surviving.

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Post by barrystar on Fri Jul 05, 2019 11:03 am

bogbrush wrote:I'm starting to think that tennis has some serious disadvantages to other sports that's cutting off the supply of new talent that is otherwise going elsewhere. The most obvious one is that football is so incredibly lucractive for even quite ordinary players, and easily accessible for almost anyone on the planet. I don't think it's alone though, there's plenty of other ways a sports-mad young kid can make a guaranteed income. 

Tennis is great so long as you make the elite level, otherwise it's a way to earn what you can at McDonalds.

I can't see another reason why the sport seems to be dying on its feet.

Some food for thought there.  I can think of a few other points along the same lines:

1 Tennis takes up a lot of acreage of real estate per competitor compared to football 
2 Tennis is pretty technical - it takes a certain amount of time and probably some money spent on lessons for a child to get to a point where it is enjoyable
3 The first experience I had with a tennis racquet was hitting a ball against the garage door at home for hours on end - even that takes real estate that most don't have
4 Tennis can only be played with 3 others, maximum, at a time, so it is not as social for youngsters as football
5 In the northern hemisphere tennis is pretty weather dependent unless you have indoor courts - leading to point 1 with bells on
6 Oldies have learned to look after themselves, so any youngster pushing through probably has to wade through a lot more battle-hardened older players who are in decent physical nick
7 There has not been a major change in technology which has given new players the advantage of learning to play on it for a long time now (e.g. racquet frames and gut to luxilon)

And yet that still does not explain why we have seen 15 years of 'nextgen' failure.  If you look at professional golf there is a gang of extremely talented hard-working and successful players establishing themselves as real competitors in Major Championships, not winning one or two big ones and, relatively speaking, flaking, but these guys continue to be present at the business end of Majors hungry for more and pushing each other on to better things.  We don't see a couple of dominant players, but still, for each major over the last few years one knows the winner is the real deal rather than the last man standing after a circular firing squad.

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Post by barrystar on Fri Jul 05, 2019 11:11 am

I agree with @lk that equalising of conditions has helped sustain the dominance of the big 3.  

It stands to reason that if surfaces are sufficiently different youngsters whose games excel on specific surfaces have an immediate competitive leg-up on those surfaces vs. the more established players, like Becker on grass or Wilander, Bruguera and Kuerten on clay.

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