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How Many More Slams Is Nadal Going To Win?

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How Many More Slams Is Nadal Going To Win? Empty How Many More Slams Is Nadal Going To Win?

Post by noleisthebest on Tue Feb 05, 2019 2:37 pm

Come on BB, Daniel etc...put your money where your mouth is! Devil

Come on LS, let’s hear it from the voice of journalism? popcorn

Come on SB, what does your 1+1 say? Whistle

Come on Yahoo, now that Rafa is getting married, what does your blokeometer predict?  ROFL

Come on.....(fill out the blank)! tennisball

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Post by Tenez on Tue Feb 05, 2019 7:03 pm

Difficult to say really. On one hand he just got to the final of another GS without losing a set (hardly ever happened to him - twice max if I remember) and on the other hand, did not face a single top 10 seed again and got destroyed by Nole.

I don;t want him to win a single slam from now on. And frankly he doesn't deserve a single one extra.

He made the most of Fed's stubbornness of keeping playing with old tools, plus injuries from Nole.

I however still see possibly one more slam for him but at Wimby or USO more than at the French.

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Post by Tenez on Tue Feb 05, 2019 7:05 pm

There is a funny stat those top 3 players share. Between themselves they have 52 slams....Huge! But so far none have won the 4 slams twice.

Nadal is the main reason for it.

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Post by luvsports! on Tue Feb 05, 2019 7:23 pm

I think he will finish with... 19 :O

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Post by Daniel2 on Tue Feb 05, 2019 10:11 pm

I reckon 2.

But with Generation Worthless about, my Granddad is talking about taking up the sport. And he has Parkinson's.

Also, Tenez... give it a rest about Fed's tools.  He dominated for 3-4 years with it. Not with the larger racquet.

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Post by noleisthebest on Tue Feb 05, 2019 10:38 pm

Actually, this is a tougher one than I thought!

My instinct says 4 more slams for Rafa, but then I think he'll have to go past Nole somehow....and I suppose there still are these young players who are getting closer...but I really can't see any of them win anything in the next two years.

Maybe Tsits. He could be good on grass.

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Post by raiders_of_the_lost_ark on Wed Feb 06, 2019 8:56 am

noleisthebest wrote:Actually, this is a tougher one than I thought!

My instinct says 4 more slams for Rafa, but then I think he'll have to go past Nole somehow....and I suppose there still are these young players who are getting closer...but I really can't see any of them win anything in the next two years.

Maybe Tsits. He could be good on grass.

That takes his count to 21. If Fed is not winning anything more than this is a serious challenge to his GOAT resume. 

If we have to gues based on probabilities, he is only likely to win RGs. And this year, I don't think he is winning it. I think, this year's RG will be won by Dominic Thiem.

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Post by noleisthebest on Wed Feb 06, 2019 10:08 am

I think Thiem has little chance st RG while Nadal and hungry healthy Nole are around.
But you can bet Nole is going to have a hell of a draw there.

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Post by raiders_of_the_lost_ark on Wed Feb 06, 2019 10:28 am

noleisthebest wrote:I think Thiem has little chance st RG while Nadal and hungry healthy Nole are around.
But you can bet Nole is going to have a hell of a draw there.
 I'm not going to discuss about draws, frankly, I never believed in rigged draws. So let's leave it there.

I didn't expect a lot of allies when I said about Thiem winning RG, but I'm backing him to win. It's too early of course, a lot depends on the form and fitness of the pre-RG tournaments to make a better guess. 

We will come across this question when RG 19 is approaching. For now, let it rest.

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Post by bogbrush on Wed Feb 06, 2019 11:12 am

None, if he has to play Djokovic. His game is beautifully crafted for Djokovic to toy with and that applies on clay just as much as hard. In fact, it could be even worse because on clay Djokovic will find it easy to rally him into the ground.

His only hope has to be that someone else takes Nole out.

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Post by Daniel2 on Wed Feb 06, 2019 12:25 pm

Why are so many people fixated on numbers.  Do you think stats at work let you know good customer service?  No.  21 is not greater than Fed.  Fed is a complete player - capable of playing on all surfaces.  He has a lead over Nadal in 3 of tjhe 4 slams and tour finals and always will.

21 is a number with no context.

Federer is an all court player who has variety and artistry.  Nadal is a one trick pony.  A clay specialist.  He does the same retireval game.  His volleys are crap.  His net approach is woeful. His all court game is terrible. 

He has a leading h2h for 3 reasons

1. He is left handed hitting to Fed's one hander in  the power era of tennis
2. He hits with enormous top spin - his only weapon.
3. Clay

He is nullified and useless v Djok. Made to look like a teething toddler whose balls are far from dropping.

Also, getting 4 slams at Nadal's age is almost unheard of in the Open Era.  Something that seems to be missed by some of you time and again.  4 is a small number - it's not a small number of slams.

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Post by noleisthebest on Wed Feb 06, 2019 12:46 pm

The reason I asked for a number is because I find the Nole-Rafa slam split in the next two years the most interesting and fascinating topic in tennis now.

I think Fed is done with slams, though one never knows what may happen...draws open, upsets happen etc etc.

With Nadal,  I have stopped worrying about his imminent career end due to injuries etc.

The way I see him, he is the most dangerous player on tour after Nole and he will be ready for at least 2/3 slams every year.

Yes, he is a claycourter but has improved and is quite capable of playing good allcourt tennis as we saw vs Nole last Wimbledon.

The reason he doesn’t do it more often is because he probably doesn’t need to as it’s too tough for him.

I also think he is driven like crazy to overtake Fed’s slam number and he’ll play till he’s 40 if that’s what it takes....

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Post by barrystar on Wed Feb 06, 2019 6:22 pm

It's down to Djoko and to Nadal's own fitness.

I'm sure he'll get one - he's got to be up for the next two RG's, but I think this year is his last big chance anywhere away from RG.

Therefore, I'll go for 1.

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Post by sphairistike on Wed Feb 06, 2019 7:59 pm

barrystar wrote:
It's down to Djoko and to Nadal's own fitness.

I'm sure he'll get one - he's got to be up for the next two RG's, but I think this year is his last big chance anywhere away from RG.

Therefore, I'll go for 1.

Actually, there is a good chance Rafa wins one slam this year already. Here are a few scenarios:

  1. Thiem or Fed (remember 2011 anyone? Winking) or for some reason Nole is tired mentally or physically and loses to someone else at RG after a few masters 1000 wins and Rafa wins RG
  2. Rafa gets to RG final without losing a set, Nole is there and Nole beats him (obv., same as at AO no reason why not) then Nole has replicated the 2015-2016 Nole slam and as in 2016, he relaxes too much and does not win Wimbledon, then Rafa is as much a favorite or even more a favorite than Fed to win it, esp. as he has already gone to 2 slam finals without winning, he'll win slam final #3, unless Fed finds somehow his best form as he has had more match practice by playing on the red dirt
  3. Nole does one better than in 2016 and wins Wimbledon too, most likely beating Rafa in the final but then the pressure is on BIG TIME for an actual CYGS and at USO, unless Rafa is physically toast by then, Rafa will be the favorite after Nole but too much pressure on Nole will mean that Rafa will win USO

noleisthebest wrote:
The reason I asked for a number is because I find the Nole-Rafa slam split in the next two years the most interesting and fascinating topic in tennis now

You must be kidding right? It is only interesting if Nole has another 2nd half 2016-1st half 2018 episode, as otherwise as long as no one from the #NextGen becomes slam strong, Nole will win everything except for one of the reasons mentioned above. Most likely scenario, this year Nole wins 3 slams and Rafa 1, which puts Nole to 17 and Rafa just ahead with 18, and they could end their careers like that, or maybe Nole adds one or two more or/and Rafa one. I would still believe Fed's record of 20 is safe, but only just. It would be funny if they all end up with 20, but then we'll all have to agree on Nole is the best  Laugh

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Post by noleisthebest on Wed Feb 06, 2019 9:58 pm

sphairistike wrote:
noleisthebest wrote:
The reason I asked for a number is because I find the Nole-Rafa slam split in the next two years the most interesting and fascinating topic in tennis now
You must be kidding right?
I wish!
We are talking Nadal, Sphair!
I am finally giving him some credit for all the transformations & comebacks he made over the years. The guy is like a cat with nine lives. Or Termniator that gets smashed and somehow always manages to get back into shape.
I know it will have to end one day, but he is STILL "young". Run
I don't care what anyone says, but Nole is guaranteed horrible draws...Nike is protecting Nadal like a holy cow.
We'll be continuing to see fresh Nadal and tired Nole in slam finals...though in Oz both Fed and Nole have been lucky and were arriving to the final fresher than they were meant to.
That's why more and more I believe in some kind of cosmic justice even in slam distribution.
And that's what really excites me most in this whole conversation.  I know it's not going to be Nadal who will have most slams Winking
sphairistike wrote:
It is only interesting if Nole has another 2nd half 2016-1st half 2018 episode, as otherwise as long as no one from the #NextGen becomes slam strong, Nole will win everything except for one of the reasons mentioned above. Most likely scenario, this year Nole wins 3 slams and Rafa 1, which puts Nole to 17 and Rafa just ahead with 18, and they could end their careers like that, or maybe Nole adds one or two more or/and Rafa one. I would still believe Fed's record of 20 is safe, but only just. It would be funny if they all end up with 20, but then we'll all have to agree on Nole is the best  Laugh[/justify]
Nice one! Bubbly

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Post by Daniel2 on Wed Feb 06, 2019 10:13 pm

Djok is also not a complete player.  You give hima  wooden racquet or faster surfaces and he's nothing.

Limited players can't be GOAT.  Djok and Nadal are nowhere near as good as Sampras on grass.  Nadal is second best to Sampras on all surfaces except clay.

Borg played in older conditions and had far more talent than Djok or Nadal will ever have.

Numbers tell you nothing.

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Post by noleisthebest on Wed Feb 06, 2019 10:23 pm

Daniel2 wrote:Djok is also not a complete player.  You give hima  wooden racquet or faster surfaces and he's nothing.

Limited players can't be GOAT.  Djok and Nadal are nowhere near as good as Sampras on grass.  Nadal is second best to Sampras on all surfaces except clay.

Borg played in older conditions and had far more talent than Djok or Nadal will ever have.

Numbers tell you nothing.

And only yesterday you said this:
Daniel2 wrote:Also, Tenez... give it a rest about Fed's tools.  He dominated for 3-4 years with it. Not with the larger racquet.

Make your mind up!

btw, Joker is not a limited player.
I hope he continues his Oz SF and F form, loved his tennis!

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Post by Daniel2 on Wed Feb 06, 2019 11:26 pm

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wqbz3F2j6BM

Players who are this naked when threatened by variety are not goat contenders.  Djok is the same.

As for making my mind up... you aren't making any sense.  Fed would dominate with both. Djok and Nadal rely on these conditions.

Nothing I said contradicted my earlier remarks at all. Follow the convo better, yeah?

Tenez says Fed started winning more because of a larger racquet. He didn't.  He dominated with the harder / smaller one and still played excellent with the new one - albeit he's older and slower and thus loses more than 2004 -7.

You are making a total non-sequitur because you aren't reading the posts properly.

Do you expect that with the larger racquet, Federer would have 3 calendar slams?  Because that's how much sense you and Tenez are making.  Zero again.

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