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Aus open prediction game: Day 4

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Post by luvsports! Wed Jan 16, 2019 10:55 pm

Karlovic (50) vs Nishikori (22)

Raonic (25) vs Stan (33)

Djokovic (2) vs Tsonga (66)

Zverev (8) vs Chardy (33)

Serena (16) vs Bouchard (33) 

Muguruza (18) vs Konta (33) 


LS: Nishi, Rao, Tsonga, Chardy, Serena, Mug

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Post by summerblues Thu Jan 17, 2019 2:11 am

Sadly, I cannot root against Nole until Rafa gets bounced out of the AO Sad

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Post by summerblues Thu Jan 17, 2019 2:58 am

Raonic and Wawrinka both look quite good to me.

Wawrinka looks close to his best, and I do not think I have ever seen Raonic play as well as this.

But how come Raonic is seeded #16?  Has he done anything at all last year?  I do not remember him at all.

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Post by summerblues Thu Jan 17, 2019 3:02 am

Karlovic breaks Nishi's serve to love.

HA HA HA.

He is now going to serve trying to bring the match to 5th set.

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Post by summerblues Thu Jan 17, 2019 3:05 am

Four aces, love hold, 5th set here we come.

I wonder if Nishi is ok.  I just turned the match on but he did not even move on any of Karlo's serves.

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Post by summerblues Thu Jan 17, 2019 3:09 am

LOL.  I just found out that Karlovic has a positive H2H vs Nole.  Very cool smiley

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Post by Tenez Thu Jan 17, 2019 8:14 am

summerblues wrote:LOL.  I just found out that Karlovic has a positive H2H vs Nole.  Very cool smiley

This is why I always argued against Djoko being the best returner of all times. On form no one had Fed's eye hand. Fed beat Karlo 13 times and lost only once.....in 2008 when everybody could have a go.

Having said that Djoko is hugely helped by his mouvement able to "Exocet" himself on returns (an Agassi expression) on both directions to catch the serve.

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Post by raiders_of_the_lost_ark Thu Jan 17, 2019 11:18 am

Tenez wrote:
summerblues wrote:LOL.  I just found out that Karlovic has a positive H2H vs Nole.  Very cool smiley

This is why I always argued against Djoko being the best returner of all times. On form no one had Fed's eye hand. Fed beat Karlo 13 times and lost only once.....in 2008 when everybody could have a go.

Having said that Djoko is hugely helped by his mouvement able to "Exocet" himself on returns (an Agassi expression) on both directions to catch the serve.

On the returns, Fed is helped by his hand-eye, Djokovic by his mouvement. Why one set of talent is seen as superior to the other. 

h2h  vs a  particular player is no proof of anything significant in debates of best returner. Fed may have been able to handle Karlovic's serves better that what Djo could have. 

But against the entire field, Djokovic's returns work superior to Fed's. And thats why Djo is the best returner of all time.

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Post by Jahu Thu Jan 17, 2019 12:05 pm

Come on Tsonga, chop him

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Post by Jahu Thu Jan 17, 2019 12:06 pm

Ok knocking him on the floor is good too!!!

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Post by Jahu Thu Jan 17, 2019 12:55 pm

What a piss poor match this is, neither can keep their serves nor close down the games.

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Post by noleisthebest Thu Jan 17, 2019 4:43 pm

raiders_of_the_lost_ark wrote:
Tenez wrote:
summerblues wrote:LOL.  I just found out that Karlovic has a positive H2H vs Nole.  Very cool smiley

This is why I always argued against Djoko being the best returner of all times. On form no one had Fed's eye hand. Fed beat Karlo 13 times and lost only once.....in 2008 when everybody could have a go.

Having said that Djoko is hugely helped by his mouvement able to "Exocet" himself on returns (an Agassi expression) on both directions to catch the serve.

On the returns, Fed is helped by his hand-eye, Djokovic by his mouvement. Why one set of talent is seen as superior to the other. 

h2h  vs a  particular player is no proof of anything significant in debates of best returner. Fed may have been able to handle Karlovic's serves better that what Djo could have. 

But against the entire field, Djokovic's returns work superior to Fed's. And thats why Djo is the best returner of all time.

I had a debate here once advocating that Federer was the best returner - better than Nole, mainly because he seemed to return Isner, Raonic and Ivo's serve with more ease.
In the meantime I have realised that his returns esp on the bakckhand are just neutralising shots, which with these super tall guys who are not the most agile buys him time to get beck to centre and continue bossing them with his FH. With the rest of the field he has to work harder.
Nole's returns are far more aggressive and proactive, hence overall he is better and more dangerous.

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Post by noleisthebest Thu Jan 17, 2019 5:22 pm

On a different, more meaningful note, as I am typing this, brother Putin is in Belgrade, about to address hundreds of thousands of Serbs in front of the largest Orthodox Church in the world.
Proud that we Serbs keep giving NATO the middle finger. Bubbly

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Post by Slippy Thu Jan 17, 2019 7:47 pm

Federer’s return is probably the weakest part of his game and the idea that it’s better than one of the greatest of all time simply based on one h2h record is very poorly informed. 

Federer’s phenomenal record against Ivo is based on him basically never losing serve and Ivo being a big time choker in tiebreaks. Ivo has managed to break him 3 times in the 35 sets they’ve played - winning all three sets as Fed couldn’t break him. 18 of the other sets they’ve played have gone to tiebreaks. Accordingly, Fed has only broken Ivo in 14 of the 35 sets they’ve played.

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Post by raiders_of_the_lost_ark Fri Jan 18, 2019 4:37 am

Slippy wrote:Federer’s return is probably the weakest part of his game and the idea that it’s better than one of the greatest of all time simply based on one h2h record is very poorly informed. 

Federer’s phenomenal record against Ivo is based on him basically never losing serve and Ivo being a big time choker in tiebreaks. Ivo has managed to break him 3 times in the 35 sets they’ve played - winning all three sets as Fed couldn’t break him. 18 of the other sets they’ve played have gone to tiebreaks. Accordingly, Fed has only broken Ivo in 14 of the 35 sets they’ve played.

Very important piece of information.  Thumbs Up

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Post by raiders_of_the_lost_ark Fri Jan 18, 2019 5:09 am

noleisthebest wrote:
raiders_of_the_lost_ark wrote:
Tenez wrote:
summerblues wrote:LOL.  I just found out that Karlovic has a positive H2H vs Nole.  Very cool smiley

This is why I always argued against Djoko being the best returner of all times. On form no one had Fed's eye hand. Fed beat Karlo 13 times and lost only once.....in 2008 when everybody could have a go.

Having said that Djoko is hugely helped by his mouvement able to "Exocet" himself on returns (an Agassi expression) on both directions to catch the serve.

On the returns, Fed is helped by his hand-eye, Djokovic by his mouvement. Why one set of talent is seen as superior to the other. 

h2h  vs a  particular player is no proof of anything significant in debates of best returner. Fed may have been able to handle Karlovic's serves better that what Djo could have. 

But against the entire field, Djokovic's returns work superior to Fed's. And thats why Djo is the best returner of all time.

I had a debate here once advocating that Federer was the best returner - better than Nole, mainly because he seemed to return Isner, Raonic and Ivo's serve with more ease.
In the meantime I have realised that his returns esp on the bakckhand are just neutralising shots, which with these super tall guys who are not the most agile buys him time to get beck to centre and continue bossing them with his FH. With the rest of the field he has to work harder.
Nole's returns are far more aggressive and proactive, hence overall he is better and more dangerous.

Completely agree. Those block returns aren't very effective against good movers but work fine against those tall giants.

I also find that those tall big servers are reluctant to try a tactical serve as the body serve which might not give an ace but the follow-up shot can be made use of on the weak return jamming the receiver. This eliminates the element of surprise or variety in serving to reduce the effectiveness of the server and thereby making some of the returns easier on important points.

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Post by Tenez Fri Jan 18, 2019 7:10 am

raiders_of_the_lost_ark wrote:
Slippy wrote:Federer’s return is probably the weakest part of his game and the idea that it’s better than one of the greatest of all time simply based on one h2h record is very poorly informed. 

Federer’s phenomenal record against Ivo is based on him basically never losing serve and Ivo being a big time choker in tiebreaks. Ivo has managed to break him 3 times in the 35 sets they’ve played - winning all three sets as Fed couldn’t break him. 18 of the other sets they’ve played have gone to tiebreaks. Accordingly, Fed has only broken Ivo in 14 of the 35 sets they’ve played.

Very important piece of information.  Thumbs Up

Complete non-sense from Slippy once again. Amazing that a sw Engeneer has not got the logic the see the flaws!

Fed "has only broken Ivo in 40% of the sets they played 14/35)" Is that a joke? That is a pretty good good record against such a server. Who has a better one? Better than Djoko's who only broke Karlo once in the 7 sets they played. In fact Fed has beaten Karlo in 90% of cases on grass and hard ....Djoko has never achieved that feat only beating Karlo on clay.

I really need to get back more often on this site to put things right. But to be far I know that everytime Slippy writes something it is biased.



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Post by Tenez Fri Jan 18, 2019 7:16 am

raiders_of_the_lost_ark wrote:On the returns, Fed is helped by his hand-eye, Djokovic by his mouvement. Why one set of talent is seen as superior to the other. 
Simply because you can go glutten free and use egg chambers to make you lighter and faster but you cannot have pills that will give you Fed's eye hand coordination. SO they are not quite the same "talent". Once is a very professional player and the other is a very talented and professional player.

h2h  vs a  particular player is no proof of anything significant in debates of best returner. Fed may have been able to handle Karlovic's serves better that what Djo could have. 
It is Karlo is a benchmark in returning like Nadal is a benchmark on clay.
But against the entire field, Djokovic's returns work superior to Fed's. And thats why Djo is the best returner of all time.
Djoko has better stats of breaking, probably like Nadal but both don;t cope with fast conds returning as well as Fed.

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Post by Tenez Fri Jan 18, 2019 7:20 am

Tenez wrote:
raiders_of_the_lost_ark wrote:
Slippy wrote:Federer’s return is probably the weakest part of his game and the idea that it’s better than one of the greatest of all time simply based on one h2h record is very poorly informed. 

Federer’s phenomenal record against Ivo is based on him basically never losing serve and Ivo being a big time choker in tiebreaks. Ivo has managed to break him 3 times in the 35 sets they’ve played - winning all three sets as Fed couldn’t break him. 18 of the other sets they’ve played have gone to tiebreaks. Accordingly, Fed has only broken Ivo in 14 of the 35 sets they’ve played.

Very important piece of information.  Thumbs Up

Complete non-sense from Slippy once again. Amazing that a sw Engeneer has not got the logic the see the flaws!

Fed "has only broken Ivo in 40% of the sets they played 14/35)" Is that a joke? That is a pretty good good record against such a server. Who has a better one?  Better than Djoko's who only broke Karlo once in the 7 sets they played. In fact Fed has beaten Karlo in 90% of cases on grass and hard ....Djoko has never achieved that feat only beating Karlo on clay.

I really need to get back more often on this site to put things right. But to be far I know that everytime Slippy writes something it is biased.



And something extremely important I missed here is that Fed did that amazing stat with a 90inch racket....That stats may have been even better with the 97in racquet.

Djoko and Nadal returns stats look good cause they evolved in an era where TD have tried to lesser the impact of serve by providing bigger balls, slowing courts. And without that "extraordinary" fitness...they would have been average.....like their shots.

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Post by legendkillar Fri Jan 18, 2019 8:35 am

Tenez wrote:
raiders_of_the_lost_ark wrote:
Slippy wrote:Federer’s return is probably the weakest part of his game and the idea that it’s better than one of the greatest of all time simply based on one h2h record is very poorly informed. 

Federer’s phenomenal record against Ivo is based on him basically never losing serve and Ivo being a big time choker in tiebreaks. Ivo has managed to break him 3 times in the 35 sets they’ve played - winning all three sets as Fed couldn’t break him. 18 of the other sets they’ve played have gone to tiebreaks. Accordingly, Fed has only broken Ivo in 14 of the 35 sets they’ve played.

Very important piece of information.  Thumbs Up

Complete non-sense from Slippy once again. Amazing that a sw Engeneer has not got the logic the see the flaws!

Fed "has only broken Ivo in 40% of the sets they played 14/35)" Is that a joke? That is a pretty good good record against such a server. Who has a better one?  Better than Djoko's who only broke Karlo once in the 7 sets they played. In fact Fed has beaten Karlo in 90% of cases on grass and hard ....Djoko has never achieved that feat only beating Karlo on clay.

I really need to get back more often on this site to put things right. But to be far I know that everytime Slippy writes something it is biased.



That would be Daniel who the Software Engineer is. Don't think Slippy has ever mentioned his vocation.

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Post by raiders_of_the_lost_ark Fri Jan 18, 2019 10:21 am

Tenez wrote:Simply because you can go glutten free and use egg chambers to make you lighter and faster but you cannot have pills that will give you Fed's eye hand coordination. SO they are not quite the same "talent". Once is a very professional player and the other is a very talented and professional player. 
 
If getting a great mouvement was so simplistic like going gluten-free or buying an egg chamber or some pills, there would already be many players ( including Federer) getting the required mouvement and hence the return skills like Djokovic. Or do you think Federer has some saintly abstinence for such things? In his interviews he once said he would like to have serve like Isner. Why would he not like to have mouvement like Djoko if that is available with a pill?

Federer returns are his weakest part of his game, they especially have hurt him against Djokovic himself. W14, 15, USO 15, 2 WTF finals so many matches he lost because he wasn't making enough or meaningful returns. 

Or Djoko is simply a better server than even Karlovic?

 
It is Karlo is a benchmark in returning like Nadal is a benchmark on clay. 

No it isn't. tennis is not about making a return 'in'. What follows next is just as important. As already said before, Fed's returns of Karlo work for him coz Karlo is unable to take advantage of the returned ball. But guys with better variety know how to deal better with the returned ball. And this is where Fed struggles with decent servers like Djokovic, Delpo 
 all the while working way  good against tall  slow movers ( Karlo, Isner etc.)

  
Djoko and Nadal returns stats look good cause they evolved in an era where TD have tried to lesser the impact of serve by providing bigger balls, slowing courts.

Fed also returns on the very same slow courts, with very same slow balls. So his return stats against Karlo have also been helped by TDs.

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Post by Slippy Fri Jan 18, 2019 10:50 am

Tenez wrote:
raiders_of_the_lost_ark wrote:
Slippy wrote:Federer’s return is probably the weakest part of his game and the idea that it’s better than one of the greatest of all time simply based on one h2h record is very poorly informed. 

Federer’s phenomenal record against Ivo is based on him basically never losing serve and Ivo being a big time choker in tiebreaks. Ivo has managed to break him 3 times in the 35 sets they’ve played - winning all three sets as Fed couldn’t break him. 18 of the other sets they’ve played have gone to tiebreaks. Accordingly, Fed has only broken Ivo in 14 of the 35 sets they’ve played.

Very important piece of information.  Thumbs Up

Complete non-sense from Slippy once again. Amazing that a sw Engeneer has not got the logic the see the flaws!

Fed "has only broken Ivo in 40% of the sets they played 14/35)" Is that a joke? That is a pretty good good record against such a server. Who has a better one?  Better than Djoko's who only broke Karlo once in the 7 sets they played. In fact Fed has beaten Karlo in 90% of cases on grass and hard ....Djoko has never achieved that feat only beating Karlo on clay.

I really need to get back more often on this site to put things right. But to be far I know that everytime Slippy writes something it is biased.


It is ironic that everytime I point out the nonsensical nature of some of your posts, you accuse me of being biased. I probably prefer Djokovic to Federer but I’m not really a fan of either and I’m far more neutral than you on this topic. I just get tired of reading your never ending comments trying to explain why Federer is the best at every single shot in tennis and how all his great rivals just run around a lot. 

Breaking Ivo 14 times in around about 150 service games (if we assume conservatively that Ivo has about 4 service games a set on average) is passable but not exceptional. Djokovic hasn’t really played him enough to compare. Murray is probably the best comparator we have as he’s played Ivo 7 times. He’s broken him 20 times in about 110 service games, so basically about twice as often as Fed.

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Post by Tenez Fri Jan 18, 2019 9:36 pm

Slippy wrote:
Tenez wrote:
raiders_of_the_lost_ark wrote:
Slippy wrote:Federer’s return is probably the weakest part of his game and the idea that it’s better than one of the greatest of all time simply based on one h2h record is very poorly informed. 

Federer’s phenomenal record against Ivo is based on him basically never losing serve and Ivo being a big time choker in tiebreaks. Ivo has managed to break him 3 times in the 35 sets they’ve played - winning all three sets as Fed couldn’t break him. 18 of the other sets they’ve played have gone to tiebreaks. Accordingly, Fed has only broken Ivo in 14 of the 35 sets they’ve played.

Very important piece of information.  Thumbs Up

Complete non-sense from Slippy once again. Amazing that a sw Engeneer has not got the logic the see the flaws!

Fed "has only broken Ivo in 40% of the sets they played 14/35)" Is that a joke? That is a pretty good good record against such a server. Who has a better one?  Better than Djoko's who only broke Karlo once in the 7 sets they played. In fact Fed has beaten Karlo in 90% of cases on grass and hard ....Djoko has never achieved that feat only beating Karlo on clay.

I really need to get back more often on this site to put things right. But to be far I know that everytime Slippy writes something it is biased.


It is ironic that everytime I point out the nonsensical nature of some of your posts, you accuse me of being biased. I probably prefer Djokovic to Federer but I’m not really a fan of either and I’m far more neutral than you on this topic. I just get tired of reading your never ending comments trying to explain why Federer is the best at every single shot in tennis and how all his great rivals just run around a lot. 

Breaking Ivo 14 times in around about 150 service games (if we assume conservatively that Ivo has about 4 service games a set on average) is passable but not exceptional. Djokovic hasn’t really played him enough to compare. Murray is probably the best comparator we have as he’s played Ivo 7 times. He’s broken him 20 times in about 110 service games, so basically about twice as often as Fed.

Another biased stat. Who cares about breaking karlo a second time within a set? So highlighting 14 times out of 150 games shows how desperate you are to minimise the fact that Fed has a 40% record of breaking Ivo per set on fast courts...while Djoko has 0%!

And again, you fail to apply the same logic measuring the number of brokens game per service games played....when it comes to Djoko. breaking only once in about 40 games is not enough stats for Djoko? Who are you kidding? And not once in about 30 opportunities on fastish (not even grass) is not enough data for you?

You have nowhere to hide and your biased views are so easy to read.

I am not biased in favoured of Fed. Give Djoko, Fed's skills, Ill be the first one to recognise them. But clearly, he hasn't and this is why is he is no Federer.

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Post by summerblues Sat Jan 19, 2019 12:54 am

legendkillar wrote:
Tenez wrote:Complete non-sense from Slippy once again. Amazing that a sw Engeneer has not got the logic the see the flaws!

That would be Daniel who the Software Engineer is. Don't think Slippy has ever mentioned his vocation.

Also, that would be Tenez who does not have the logic to see the flaws.

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Post by Slippy Sat Jan 19, 2019 10:49 am

I Tenez wrote:
Slippy wrote:
Tenez wrote:
raiders_of_the_lost_ark wrote:
Slippy wrote:Federer’s return is probably the weakest part of his game and the idea that it’s better than one of the greatest of all time simply based on one h2h record is very poorly informed. 

Federer’s phenomenal record against Ivo is based on him basically never losing serve and Ivo being a big time choker in tiebreaks. Ivo has managed to break him 3 times in the 35 sets they’ve played - winning all three sets as Fed couldn’t break him. 18 of the other sets they’ve played have gone to tiebreaks. Accordingly, Fed has only broken Ivo in 14 of the 35 sets they’ve played.

Very important piece of information.  Thumbs Up

Complete non-sense from Slippy once again. Amazing that a sw Engeneer has not got the logic the see the flaws!

Fed "has only broken Ivo in 40% of the sets they played 14/35)" Is that a joke? That is a pretty good good record against such a server. Who has a better one?  Better than Djoko's who only broke Karlo once in the 7 sets they played. In fact Fed has beaten Karlo in 90% of cases on grass and hard ....Djoko has never achieved that feat only beating Karlo on clay.

I really need to get back more often on this site to put things right. But to be far I know that everytime Slippy writes something it is biased.


It is ironic that everytime I point out the nonsensical nature of some of your posts, you accuse me of being biased. I probably prefer Djokovic to Federer but I’m not really a fan of either and I’m far more neutral than you on this topic. I just get tired of reading your never ending comments trying to explain why Federer is the best at every single shot in tennis and how all his great rivals just run around a lot. 

Breaking Ivo 14 times in around about 150 service games (if we assume conservatively that Ivo has about 4 service games a set on average) is passable but not exceptional. Djokovic hasn’t really played him enough to compare. Murray is probably the best comparator we have as he’s played Ivo 7 times. He’s broken him 20 times in about 110 service games, so basically about twice as often as Fed.

Another biased stat. Who cares about breaking karlo a second time within a set? So highlighting 14 times out of 150 games shows how desperate you are to minimise the fact that Fed has a 40% record of breaking Ivo per set on fast courts...while Djoko has 0%!

And again, you fail to apply the same logic measuring the number of brokens game per service games played....when it comes to Djoko. breaking only once in about 40 games is not enough stats for Djoko? Who are you kidding? And not once in about 30 opportunities on fastish (not even grass) is not enough data for you?

You have nowhere to hide and your biased views are so easy to read.

I am not biased in favoured of Fed. Give Djoko, Fed's skills, Ill be the first one to recognise them. But clearly, he hasn't and this is why is he is no Federer.
I do like the irony of saying you aren’t biased and then, in the very next sentence, saying that all it would require for you to give credit to Djokovic would be for him to become Federer! That’s peak Tenez!

I’m not really sure why you don’t like the breaks per games stat, other than it isn’t very impressive for Fed. However, even on percentage of breaks per set he’s only at 40%. That isn’t particularly impressive when you see that Rafa is at 50% and Murray 70% on the same stat. Of the big 4, Fed is only above Novak who, as I’ve said, hasn’t played Ivo enough to really judge.

Also, what’s this nonsense about Fed playing Ivo on quick courts? You’ve spent years moaning about the courts being slowed down so that even grass now plays like clay. 5 of Fed’s wins were on clay or at IW/Miami which are most definitely not quick courts. He lost to Ivo the only time they met in Cincy and his last match against him was on a quick court (Halle) - the only break point in that match was created by Ivo.

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Post by N2D2L Sat Jan 19, 2019 9:49 pm

Slippy wrote:I’m not really sure why you don’t like the breaks per games stat, other than it isn’t very impressive for Fed. However, even on percentage of breaks per set he’s only at 40%. That isn’t particularly impressive when you see that Rafa is at 50% and Murray 70% on the same stat. Of the big 4, Fed is only above Novak who, as I’ve said, hasn’t played Ivo enough to really judge.


Guys, can you stop harassing Tenez with all these statistics and logic, he’s just a humble farmer who wants to nobly prove Federer’s talent in between milking cows and herding sheep.

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Post by Tenez Sat Jan 19, 2019 10:22 pm

DEC1M7 wrote:
Slippy wrote:I’m not really sure why you don’t like the breaks per games stat, other than it isn’t very impressive for Fed. However, even on percentage of breaks per set he’s only at 40%. That isn’t particularly impressive when you see that Rafa is at 50% and Murray 70% on the same stat. Of the big 4, Fed is only above Novak who, as I’ve said, hasn’t played Ivo enough to really judge.


Guys, can you stop harassing Tenez with all these statistics and logic, he’s just a humble farmer who wants to nobly prove Federer’s talent in between milking cows and herding sheep.

Thanks Decim! I need a goat.....can you make it?

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Post by N2D2L Sat Jan 19, 2019 10:48 pm

Tenez be honest, you’ve definitely shaved the RF logo onto a goat in your farm haven’t you?

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Post by Tenez Sat Jan 19, 2019 10:57 pm

I admit. And called my pig Rafa!

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Post by N2D2L Sat Jan 19, 2019 11:37 pm

Don't let them both out on clay, the pig will probably give the goat swine flu and kill it.

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